The "I guess we're tanking" thread--Projections

[Ted Hoffman]

I wish they’d hurry. Why wait? This franchise could use a top 5 talent.

DA is still trying to figure out how to make sure everyone knows he's lost his patience and is serious about being unhappy without admitting he's made a mistake somewhere along the way. Or, he's trying to figure out who else needs to pay for his sins and the sins of the franchise.

 

[MissouriMook]

Ottawa wins in OT.

Excellent

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

DA is still trying to figure out how to make sure everyone knows he's lost his patience and is serious about being unhappy without admitting he's made a mistake somewhere along the way. Or, he's trying to figure out who else needs to pay for his sins and the sins of the franchise.

I know you want Armstrong gone, but whether he blames himself or not doesn't matter a lot to me. He's still the GM and he still has to deal with trying to clean up this mess, so I can't fault him for making moves to try to do that (as he is about to do). If he makes more mistakes then, I think more blame shifts to ownership for not stepping in.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I know you want Armstrong gone, but whether he blames himself or not doesn't matter a lot to me. He's still the GM and he still has to deal with trying to clean up this mess, so I can't fault him for making moves to try to do that (as he is about to do). If he makes more mistakes then, I think more blame shifts to ownership for not stepping in.

I'm kind of being sarcastic with my comment [and kind of not] but we're coming up on 2 months since Yeo got fired and this team really hasn't closed the gap and continues to show the same maddening inconsistency - and for all of DA's bleating about change and impatience at the press conference, the major moves so far are ... waiving Chad Johnson and trading for Jared Coreau. [Oh, and Larry Robinson being behind the bench for a few weeks and no discernable change to the team's play other than "take a whole lot more shots than the other team and still get beat."]

But as you point out, he's trying to clean up his own mistakes. I have low faith in that really happening. You don't give the renter who trashed your house the tools to rebuild it and think it will all go well, I don't know why we trust him to fix the problems he created and think he won't make new problems as a result.

I just think he's backed himself into a corner and is trying to swing for the fences with little to lose in his mind and especially with the expressed backing of ownership. I mean, if it goes wrong it's not like Stillman is really going to fire him or anything.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I'm kind of being sarcastic with my comment [and kind of not] but we're coming up on 2 months since Yeo got fired and this team really hasn't closed the gap and continues to show the same maddening inconsistency - and for all of DA's bleating about change and impatience at the press conference, the major moves so far are ... waiving Chad Johnson and trading for Jared Coreau. [Oh, and Larry Robinson being behind the bench for a few weeks and no discernable change to the team's play other than "take a whole lot more shots than the other team and still get beat."]

But as you point out, he's trying to clean up his own mistakes. I have low faith in that really happening. You don't give the renter who trashed your house the tools to rebuild it and think it will all go well, I don't know why we trust him to fix the problems he created and think he won't make new problems as a result.

I just think he's backed himself into a corner and is trying to swing for the fences with little to lose in his mind and especially with the expressed backing of ownership. I mean, if it goes wrong it's not like Stillman is really going to fire him or anything.

I just hope he isnt of a mind with JR, planning to trade Tarasenko and Pietro to shake up the leadership.

 

[Brian39]

As with most things in life, I think the truth of our situation lies somewhere in between the use of raw points and the use of points % or +/-. While it is true that we have games in hand on most if not all of our tank competition, those games in hand only mean something is they are converted to standings points. If there is one thing that this team has shown me this season its that you shouldn't count on that happening. If we are in the #4 slot based on raw points and #6 based on % we're probably in the #5 slot.

That's true. However, it is statistically very likely that some points are earned out of those games. For as bad as this team has been playing, it has earned .927 points for each game played. Based on the level of parity in the NHL, it's about as unlikely that we lose every game in hand during regulation than it is that we win every game in hand. Earning 2-4 points out of 3 games in hand is by far the most statistically likely outcome.

Using your #4-6 example, I'd slot us at #5.5 by weighing the points percentage number more than the raw total. For better or worse, it is going to be hard for this team to play much worse, especially if you have any confidence in Binny and/or view Allen as the team's biggest issue. The schedule dictates that we are going to see way more of Binny than we've seen of our backup so far this season and solid play by Binny will push that number up higher.

 

[carter333167]

Tank for Hughes.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Brian39 [and before him, Stupendous Yappi] have it right. The danger in using games in hand is that everyone tends to expect to pick up all points from them and then they draw conclusions accordingly. As we have seen repeatedly, that tends to happen very rarely and you're just setting yourself up for failure and high needed results.

The better guide is to count on getting half those points, unless you have solid reasons to expect more/less. [Wishful thinking is not a valid reason.] If it turns out better, great - that's a bonus. You also never count on other teams helping you out; take care of your business first, don't rely on others to do what you can't.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

The more the season goes along, I hope that the Blues manage to have 2 or 3 first rounders this coming draft, even if they're late picks. I want something to get excited about.

 

[MissouriMook]

Is it possible that the tank has been

 

[m1a2lt]

Right now, no, unless this is what is meant by tanking...

 

[Bluesguru]

The boys in Blue are as confused as the fans. You got guys who think they might be traded, kids trying to win jobs, a coaching staff that doesn’t know if they’ll be back next yr, advisors taking bets on when they’ll get their pink slip and of course our old buddy Army. Army is soaking this all in and yet nobody is more confused on what to do than him. But he’s the only one who knows for sure he’ll be back here next yr and yet this whole state of confusion is his stinking mess. Irony at its best.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’m starting to come around to extending Schenn and Petro and trading Steen, Bozak and Allen in the off season.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Philadelphia-7
LAK -7
Ottawa-7
Detroit -6
Chicago -6
New Jersey-3
Florida -1
NYR -1
Vancouver -1
Arizona -1
St Louis -1
Edmonton -E

These are all the teams not above .500 points acquisition pace. You could look at it as the Blues are already tied for the 11th pick.

The good news is that there are Central division or wildcard spots at:
Dallas +4
Minnesota +3
Colorado +3

More good news is that Chicago has been winning about half their games and moving away from the Hughes range barring a miraculous lottery ball. But Colorado stands to get an excellent pick from Ottawa.

 

[Brian39]

I'm fully anti-tank at this point. We aren't bad enough and (barring trades of everyone) probably can't get bad enough to ensure a top 5 pick regardless of lottery luck. Realistically, a tank means that we're slated to pick 5-8 and have to sweat lottery results. Plus we then don't have a 1st round pick in 2020 and have to make a massive turnaround to avoid being in the situation Ottawa is in right now. In order to tank bad enough to get the pick we want now, there is no assurance that we aren't giving up a great pick in 2020.

I'm rooting for playoffs and short of playoffs a diagnosis of the issues. I want to see Binny concretely prove that he is an NHL goalie. Even if he proves that he can't handle a starter/tandem load for 2+ months, we should at least know whether he can be a backup (I think that is is floor for next year). An answer to this question also should help diagnose how bad off the team is. A good 2nd half on the back of Binny playing well probably causes management to pump the brakes on a potential "gotta shake up the locker room by trading a leader" train.

I'd rather give up a 12th overall pick and have a sense of direction and what fat needs to be trimmed than have a6th overall pick and no idea how the hell to pull this team out of the gutter.

Let's win games. And even if we don't, I'm going to be bummed about that instead of quietly cheering.

 

[TruBlu]

I'm fully anti-tank at this point. We aren't bad enough and (barring trades of everyone) probably can't get bad enough to ensure a top 5 pick regardless of lottery luck. Realistically, a tank means that we're slated to pick 5-8 and have to sweat lottery results. Plus we then don't have a 1st round pick in 2020 and have to make a massive turnaround to avoid being in the situation Ottawa is in right now. In order to tank bad enough to get the pick we want now, there is no assurance that we aren't giving up a great pick in 2020.

I'm rooting for playoffs and short of playoffs a diagnosis of the issues. I want to see Binny concretely prove that he is an NHL goalie. Even if he proves that he can't handle a starter/tandem load for 2+ months, we should at least know whether he can be a backup (I think that is is floor for next year). An answer to this question also should help diagnose how bad off the team is. A good 2nd half on the back of Binny playing well probably causes management to pump the brakes on a potential "gotta shake up the locker room by trading a leader" train.

I'd rather give up a 12th overall pick and have a sense of direction and what fat needs to be trimmed than have a6th overall pick and no idea how the hell to pull this team out of the gutter.

Let's win games. And even if we don't, I'm going to be bummed about that instead of quietly cheering.

Did you eat every pixie stick in the candy cabinet?

 

[BlueDream]

Yeah, I can never really fully commit myself to a tank. They always end up drawing me back in. I mean, I’m a fan. No matter how many posts I may make out of frustration on here, bottom line is that nothing beats watching playoff hockey. And it’s always sad when your team doesn’t make it.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I would say that we can pause this topic because we're clearly not headed for a tank right now. A playoff spot is by no means guaranteed, but finishing bottom-5 is much more difficult at this point.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I would say that we can pause this topic because we're clearly not headed for a tank right now. A playoff spot is by no means guaranteed, but finishing bottom-5 is much more difficult at this point.

Or we could have the title edited to add "LOL"

 

[Brockon]

Or we could have the title edited to add "LOL"

Wow... It took me reading this post to realize that the title got edited, it's been over 2 weeks that I've just skimmed past the thread and not acknowledged it, because as stated, our race to the bottom 5 seems to be lost.

 

[TruBlu]

It doesn't appear that we are going to keep our 1st round pick this year. I'm still of the opinion that we are going to miss the playoffs.

 

[Celtic Note]

Can the title just be an emoji middle finger? It seems like a good representation of the season.

 

[Meatball]

What method are you using to compile these stats, Irish?

The work done here is impressive.

 

[Mike Liut]

Lots of tank teams winning lately.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Minnesota +4 WC
Vancouver +2 WC
Colorado +1
St Louis +1
Arizona E
Anaheim -1
Edmonton -1
Chicago -4
LAK -7

Eastern lowlights are:
Philadelphia E
NYR E
Florida E
Detroit -4
New Jersey -4
Ottawa -9

So Blues are tied for the 13th pick as of today, and 1 point away from being tied in points with the wildcard spot.