Then there's also OJ who has threatened to keep on playing for a few more years. Whether he will still be deserving of a spot is of course a question mark, a bit similar to Tuomo. It's hard to see him being snubbed though if he's still in the NHL. For now I've still got him in my scenarios, not that I particularly like having him there, but as things stand now I can't leave him out just yet. In your projected lineup he would bump Haula to wing IMO. That would bring us to 3 surefire centers in Koivu, Barkov and OJ. The 4th one could certainly be someone like Lehterä. For now I see Kontiola being an extra at best, along with JMA (who I would leave at home entirely).
OJ ranks, true. But last season he was collecting plenty of brownie points due to his familiarity with Erkka.
My lineup pretty much depends on a suitable winger or two popping up in the next two years. I'm fully aware that if this does not come to pass, it will look plenty different with a natural playmaker or two being converted into a scoring role. Also I'm a bit iffy concerning those European scorers. World Cup is a small ice tournament so I don't think either that JMA would be a good match even if he's still our ranking top-six winger at the time. Salminen could fit. Or perhaps there's a late bloomer who's still mostly under the radar. Such off-the-books example could be Kai Kantola, for one (and no, I don't mean he will turn into one for sure).
But if the youngsters deliver, then I don't see plenty incentive for the new management to cling onto OJ just because.
So as you can see, I'm one of the people who don't expect a lot to change in 2 years. I'm not particularly excited at the prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised if the defense corps in this tournament consisted of Vatanen, Määttä, Ristolainen, Kukkonen, Väänänen, Hietanen and Lepistö.
I can't say your pessimism is unfounded. Still, it looks like apart from the Määttä, Vatanen and Ristolainen we also have Lindbohm and Jokipakka on the verge of a breakthrough. They'd be great fits to the bottom pairs.
If things pan out, we'd have at least seven regular d-men in the NHL by 2016: Määttä, Vatanen, Ristolainen, Pokka, Jokipakka, Lindbohm and Honka. But again, I'm fully aware that plenty can go awry. Also, even if we have 'em all, it's still no guarantee all of 'em make it. Because while it would give us a defense fully made of NHL regulars, it would also give us an overwhelmingly young defense. No player in it would be even 25 years of age - save for Vatanen, barely. So even in the best case scenario, seeing one or two European vets added "for experience" would not surprise me.