If in doubt, look to the clubs still receiving the financial boost of parachute payments.
I'm sceptical Siewart will manage to turn around the negative momentum he accrued last season at Huddersfield. My instincts say that Scott Parker won't prove up to the job at Fulham, and that Slaven Bilic will have cause to regret West Brom losing more than 40 of the goals they scored last season thanks to Dwight Gayle's loan spell ending, and Rodriguez returning to Burnley. The loss of Graham Potter and McBurnie will surely stop Swansea carrying last season's strong finish into this campaign. Hull haven't especially strengthened, even if we assume Grant McCann tightens up their defence without reducing their goals for column.
Jonathan Woodgate is one of the last players have expected to become a manager (mind, I'd have said the same about his old clubbing buddy Lee Bowyer), but I have a funny feeling he might free Middlesbrough from the shackles Tony Pulis imposed on them without leaving their defence wide open, and lead them to promotion. (Perhaps he really did learn from Robson, Venables et al - when he joined Real Madrid, he surprised people by learning the language. Who knows, maybe it occurred to him that foreigns had something to teach him on the footballing front, too.) For the record, the Smoggies were drawing 2-2 at Kenilworth Road when I began typing this.
I think Stoke will go up despite losing Ryan Shawcross. Hard to believe that Ince, Afobe and Vokes between them won't produce the goals they lacked last year. Nathan Jones sounds just the sort of religious nut who's bound to end up spending a few months in the EPL being weird at every microphone he encounters.
It's hard to bet against Cardiff. Their squad is experienced without being old, and hasn't suffered too many key departures. Aden Flint is a good addition, and Robert Glatzel might prove a shrewd signing - the sort of big target man to create space for Bobby Reid, Josh Murphy, and Junior 'what do you mean, he isn't 109 years old?' Howlett.
I've no clue what Lamouchi's stock as a coach is, but Forest have the makings of a real challenge for the top six this year. Brentford have a good chance to be the underdogs who make waves, but I can't see them winning promotion.
As for Leeds, I'll take them to lose in the playoffs again.