Player Discussion: The Elvis Thread

[Monstershockey]

It's pretty much exclusively because of @thebus88's continued obsession with singing the praises of Korpisalo (okay) and tearing down and dismissing anyone who isn't him (less okay).

Frankly, I think the real issue is that Elvis has a personality and will celebrate things, and that's triggering some sort of unconscious "OMG ABOVE THE TEAM PROBLEM PROBLEM HE'LL DESTROY US ALL" reflex reaction. If you look closely, you'll note that all the guys he's hated have "stood out" in some way such that folks pay attention to them, or have been perceived as doing so:

• Bobrovsky - Vezina trophy, The Hug
• Werenski - pre- and post-draft hype, then the facial injury and his subsequent "hero" status
• Merzlikins - he celebrates things and has quirky interviews
• Wennberg - supposedly his physical attractiveness
• Wisniewski - high-profile acquisition alongside The Former #7 (who I imagine would also have been on the hate list if he'd stayed)
• Johansen - a few quirky moments that came out around the ASG (basketball court, "we didn't want him anyways"); was widely considered the team's star player

The only exception to this rule I can recall seeing is Panarin, who was also a very visible star player.

I guess all those guys had down time when they weren't playing well. Panarin never really went into a major funk.
I guess I just wish people wouldn't nitpick too closely, especially in a year like this. I get it is probably more fun, but it is way less stressful not trying to pick every little thing apart to find where the blame lies, or the credit is due. Most goals and goals against all rely on a series of events to happen. To me, it is all a product of the whole, than just one or two guys getting it done. Watching these guys play the last few weeks, they way they have come together as a team has been very satisfying and fun to watch. Not worrying about who is doing it, or where we are in playoff standings are is less stressful, but just as exciting. While I really don't know exactly how far out or in the playoff hunt we are, I know if they just keep playing well, they will be fine.

 

[NotWendell]

Its.... Mr. "All Star" Korpisalo, thank you very much.

Truth is, 1 guy has a 5-6 record with a 2.7 gaa, the other has a 17-10 record with a 2.5 gaa.

They are not the same quality goaltender, looking at the "numbers" or looking at their play on the ice.

Not really a fair comparison since Mr All-Star's first horrible games in the NHL are not being counted in your choice of stats but Mr Just Got a Chance to Play Regularly's are. I think Korpi is the better goalie RIGHT NOW, but I think Elvis has a higher ceiling. I just don't like the selective choice of stats here.

 

[Viqsi]

I guess all those guys had down time when they weren't playing well. Panarin never really went into a major funk.

Good point. That just might well be the missing element to the rule.

And yeah, I'm right there with you w/r/t the Endless Pursuit Of Blame.

 

[Monstershockey]

For everyone that likes the stat arguements.
Korpisalo's first 17 games in the NHL, 8-6-3, .921 save%, 2.60 GAA.
Elvis' first 17, 5-6-4, .915, 2.70.
I am sure that means something. What, I don't know.

 

[Madifer]

For everyone that likes the stat arguements.
Korpisalo's first 17 games in the NHL, 8-6-3, .921 save%, 2.60 GAA.
Elvis' first 17, 5-6-4, .915, 2.70.
I am sure that means something. What, I don't know.

None of this matters at all.

What matters is that both Korpi and Elvis have shown the ability to improve. Korpi started the year poorly before getting surprisingly better on a consistent basis. Elvis = same story.

They are both trending in the right direction, the question is "where is their ceiling?" and not those cold numbers from the past.

 

[Monstershockey]

None of this matters at all.

What matters is that both Korpi and Elvis have shown the ability to improve. Korpi started the year poorly before getting surprisingly better on a consistent basis. Elvis = same story.

They are both trending in the right direction, the question is "where is their ceiling?" and not those cold numbers from the past.

I know it doesn't matter. It was just for everyone constantly comparing stats to see who's beter, instead of just being happy we have two goaltenders who are trending up. Korpi is still the starter even though Elvis is playing well. Just like Bob was the starter then, even though Korpi was doing well. Lets just enjoy it while it is happening instead of trying to figure out who is better.

 

[DarkandStormy]

This makes no sense. GAA has nothing to do with # of shots given up by the defense. It also has nothing to do with save %. Goalies can give up 3 goals on 9 shots and win, and they can give up 3 goals on 40 shots and lose. They will have a better save % in the loss. You can lose a bunch of games you score 4 or more goals in, and win more games you score 3 or less in. Last time I checked, hockey is a team game. Comparing Elvis to Korpi is unbelieveably stupid right now because of the games played difference. I don't get why anybody even cares. They are winning games right now as a team. It doesn't matter who is playing, just that they play as a team.

If you're a .915 goalie and the defense gives up 20 shots/game, your GAA is going to look a lot different than if they give up 40 shots/game. The goalie does have some effect on GAA, but it's driven by the shot suppression of the defense as well. Of course, solely looking at base line stats doesn't tell the whole story (there are some "advanced" stats out there on xGA, GSAA, etc. to try to better capture everything).

Per 60 minutes, Elvis is actually facing more shots than Korpi (31.77 to 28.81), so he's seeing more volume per minutes played. His "expected goals allowed" is 2.4 to Korpi's 2.2 -> suggesting he is seeing more shots overall and slightly better quality shots as well. Because of that, even though his sv% is slightly better (.915 to .913), his GAA is worse (2.70 to Korpi's 2.49). Elvis is slightly positive in goals saved above average, and Korpi is slightly negative (both are basically statistically insignificant on that front).

Back to the original point I made - if Elvis faced the same shot volume that Korpi did and maintained a .915 sv%, his GAA would be better than Korpi's. This is why comparing two goalies' GAA as some sort of barometer makes no sense.

 

[Monstershockey]

If you're a .915 goalie and the defense gives up 20 shots/game, your GAA is going to look a lot different than if they give up 40 shots/game. The goalie does have some effect on GAA, but it's driven by the shot suppression of the defense as well. Of course, solely looking at base line stats doesn't tell the whole story (there are some "advanced" stats out there on xGA, GSAA, etc. to try to better capture everything).

Per 60 minutes, Elvis is actually facing more shots than Korpi (31.77 to 28.81), so he's seeing more volume per minutes played. His "expected goals allowed" is 2.4 to Korpi's 2.2 -> suggesting he is seeing more shots overall and slightly better quality shots as well. Because of that, even though his sv% is slightly better (.915 to .913), his GAA is worse (2.70 to Korpi's 2.49). Elvis is slightly positive in goals saved above average, and Korpi is slightly negative (both are basically statistically insignificant on that front).

Back to the original point I made - if Elvis faced the same shot volume that Korpi did and maintained a .915 sv%, his GAA would be better than Korpi's. This is why comparing two goalies' GAA as some sort of barometer makes no sense.

Bottom line is goals against per 60. # of shots is irrelevant. As long as they are giving up less goals than the opponent, I don't care what the save% is. Those advance stats are way to deep and tell me nothing.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

For everyone that likes the stat arguements.
Korpisalo's first 17 games in the NHL, 8-6-3, .921 save%, 2.60 GAA.
Elvis' first 17, 5-6-4, .915, 2.70.
I am sure that means something. What, I don't know.

It means they both played 17 games.

I was my 6th grade spelling bee champion. What does that mean today? Absolutely nothing.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Bottom line is goals against per 60. # of shots is irrelevant. As long as they are giving up less goals than the opponent, I don't care what the save% is. Those advance stats are way to deep and tell me nothing.

They tell a lot.

Not sure how you look at goals/60 and decide Korpi > Elvis (because that's what those numbers would suggest), when Elvis stops a greater share of the shots he faces. Weird way to evaluate goalies. Thankfully, our front office (I hope) doesn't use this elementary approach.

Either way, both of the guys have shown they are really good when handling a big workload. It remains to be seen if they can both be good in a 1a/1b situation like the Isles or Stars deploy. Last 8 games played, they are both at .936. Korpi has given up 14 goals in his 8 games, Elvis has given up 15. That's really stellar goaltending the last 16 games.

 

[Monstershockey]

GAA is figured by GA divided by minutes x 60. So it is basically goals against per 60. I go by whether we win or lose. If you look at points % for each goalie, Korpi's is like .612, and Elvis is .467. That is way more telling than save percentage. I don't even care which one is better, just that they are both good.

 

[stevo61]

Bottom line for me is we are winning games and have 2 goalies playing great. I for one am happy for both of them. Could lead to a tough choice some day but there is a lot more hockey to play before that day comes, its a good problem to have

 

[cbjgirl]

What are the stats for both of them for the their first games playing on an NHL style rink rather than a European one? There is a learning curve for the different set up.

 

[DarkandStormy]

GAA is figured by GA divided by minutes x 60. So it is basically goals against per 60. I go by whether we win or lose. If you look at points % for each goalie, Korpi's is like .612, and Elvis is .467. That is way more telling than save percentage. I don't even care which one is better, just that they are both good.

If you are going to ignore everything I've said and continue to use asinine statistics like "point % is more telling than save percentage" then there's no point in this discussion. Last you checked (your words) hockey is a team game, so I'm not sure why you only go by point % when things like, I don't know, team scoring and defense are major factors in that.

It's 2020 and we still have fans out there thinking GAA is more telling than save % and W/L record tells us more about the goalies than anything else. Truly an amazing time to be alive. I've made enough posts on this matter - if anyone wants links or more details on the stats, feel free to PM me.

 

[Monstershockey]

Ok. I don't see how points won from available points is asinine considering playoff position is based on total points. I haven't seen any divisions decided by save %. It's not even a tie breaker. And no, I am not ignoring what you are saying. You seem to think that because Elvis has the better save%, he is the better goalie. If that is the case, why isn't Jake Allen playing more than Jordan Binnington. The difference in save% is greater than Elvis and Korpi's, and Allen has the lower GAA. The difference in games is about the same as in Columbus. The difference is St. Louis wins 73% of the points when Binnington is in. With Allen it's 65%. The team is better when Binnington is in so he plays more. Elvis, just like Allen, is the backup. You can post all day how his save% is better, but if they keep winning only 47% of the available points, he will stay the backup. So it all comes down to how the team plays when guys are in. It's not the goalie that is the problem, it is just the team seems to win more when Korpi is in. Actually, if you want to use your fancy stats, look at the quality start and quality start %, they line up exactly with points%, so whatever. If you go back to St. Louis, that is where the Binnington is better between their goalies.

 

[Madifer]

Bottom line for me is we are winning games and have 2 goalies playing great. I for one am happy for both of them. Could lead to a tough choice some day but there is a lot more hockey to play before that day comes, its a good problem to have

... and we are not paying 10m to Bob.

 

[NotWendell]

I admit, I thought Jarmo screwed the pooch on his decision to roll with this tandem. It just might work out after all!

 

[NotWendell]

What will Elvis's contract extension look like?

 

[Jovavic]

What will Elvis's contract extension look like?

If their numbers are near the same at the end of the year, offer both 2 yrs at 2 million per and the first one to sign gets to stay, the other becomes an asset. Next year roll with whoever and ViVi as the back up. Year after, probably the same unless Vivi overtakes. Year after, reassess and see where whoever, Vivi, and Tarasov are and go from there.

So...
20-21 whoever/Vivi (Tarasov in AHL)
21-22 same
22-23 see how things have panned out

 

[Monstershockey]

It means they both played 17 games.

I was my 6th grade spelling bee champion. What does that mean today? Absolutely nothing.

I know they don't mean anything. Someone upthread brought it up so I posted it.
I got eliminated early in my 3rd grade spelling bee. I can now spell mountain correctly.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

If their numbers are near the same at the end of the year, offer both 2 yrs at 2 million per and the first one to sign gets to stay, the other becomes an asset. Next year roll with whoever and ViVi as the back up. Year after, probably the same unless Vivi overtakes. Year after, reassess and see where whoever, Vivi, and Tarasov are and go from there.

So...
20-21 whoever/Vivi (Tarasov in AHL)
21-22 same
22-23 see how things have panned out

What if the one who isn’t the first to sign is actually the better choice and gets paid more elsewhere? I don’t think negotiations can work like that

 

[varano]

What an incredible problem for the jackets. Started off with two "meh " goalies. One turns it around and plays like an all star, gets hurt, and the other one just steals the show. I'd love to see columbus in the playoffs after this last twenty game push.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Among the 60 NHL goalies who have played 500+ minutes this season, Elvis ranks 13th in save percentage at .921, virtually tied with Thomas Greiss. His GAA for the season also ranks 13th at 2.53.

Incredible run by the kid. He's going to force management to think long and hard about dealing one of the two goalies as they've both shown they can be reliably solid starters. Wonder if Jarmo moves one of them for offensive help in the next 13 months.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

Incredible run by the kid. He's going to force management to think long and hard about dealing one of the two goalies as they've both shown they can be reliably solid starters. Wonder if Jarmo moves one of them for offensive help in the next 13 months.

Trade some Defense.. hold on to the goalies until we know what the heck we have.

MOD EDIT: fix post quote

 

[Socks]

Incredible run by the kid. He's going to force management to think long and hard about dealing one of the two goalies as they've both shown they can be reliably solid starters. Wonder if Jarmo moves one of them for offensive help in the next 13 months.

Trade some Defense.. hold on to the goalies until we know what the heck we have.

Agreed. I’m loving what’s going on with Elvis and Korpi was playing very well but it’s a small sample size. We need to keep this in perspective until both guys have more games/wins under their belts.

MOD EDIT: fix post quote