The decision to keep the expiring contracts - is it going to backfire

[The Apologist]

Imagining a different past with your preferred version of events.... isn’t that a versionstraw man?

Jvr allows to insulate if a kid takes a step back. The team is flooded with youth.

Yup, JVR forces teams to spread out their defensive tandems. Having him and Bozak allows the younger players more freedom, more opportunities to develop. It allows Babs more opportunities to ease players in rather than throwing them to the wolves a la Edmonton Oilers.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Imagining a different past with your preferred version of events.... isn’t that a versionstraw man?

Jvr allows to insulate if a kid takes a step back. The team is flooded with youth.

You started speculating about an alternate version of this past season (sophomore slumps, no record without jvrs goals). I agree that was pointless, but I did give my best guess as to what the Leafs roster with Leivo/Johnsson in for JvR would have accomplished. If you speculate, why can’t we all?

What we do know for sure though, is that we would have had way more/better draft picks at this draft than we do now, had the UFAs been traded.

 

[Suntouchable13]

JvR is probably going to go to a non-playoff team that is desperate for goal scoring. I doubt there will be any playoff teams lining up to get this guy. He does next to nothing in the playoffs.

 

[The Apologist]

JvR is probably going to go to a non-playoff team that is desperate for goal scoring. I doubt there will be any playoff teams lining up to get this guy. He does next to nothing in the playoffs.

He has two goals in 4 games. Isnt that exactly what he does?

Oh and he's outscoring our franchise player.....and I am the furthest thing from a JVR fan as almost anyone here will tell you.

 

[Pocket Hercules]

How would we come up with a list of potential trade partners?

- Remove all non-playoff teams. If they wanted any of these players, they could just wait until the summer.
- Remove all playoff teams that don't have Cap space. Or should the Leafs retain salary?
- Remove all teams that JVR and Bozak don't want to play for. -They have limited no-trade clauses.
- Remove all teams that don't need their particular skillset because it would be redundant for their teams
and doesn't address their weaknesses.

Now after careful consideration by opposing General Managers, weighing these options open to the Leafs,
offer them what they're worth in this market. As the Leaf's GM, consider the signal this sends to the club.
Are you going to be excited after all the training, practice, travel, games, etc... and imagining the playoffs
and then the G.M. deals core players away? If you fail in the playoffs, who would you blame?
If you have a player like Komarov doing exactly as the coach is begging everyone to do get dealt, what
message does that send to players who rather be cherry-picking for offense rather then take defensive assignments?
As a young player dedicating themselves to the Leafs, about to sign that new contract... what do you tell
your agent as you see someone who's played their entire career for the Leafs be dealt for a draft pick?
Someone who signed that 'fair' contract in the past? You tell your agent, 'It's just business'.

This isn't some video game trade. There's people involved. It's not just the players that get dealt,
it's the players left behind. If the Leafs weren't going to make the playoffs and you could maybe give
a veteran player a chance at the Cup, it's understandable. If you were able to parley a deal into a
valuable defenseman? Maybe people are sad to see their teammate go, but would understand it
from a hockey perspective. But for low odd draft picks? You're killing the number one goal, which
is to turn the Leafs into not just a winning hockey team, but a winning organization. The rest will
follow. The fact is, the Leafs still haven't even gotten out of paying for Tim Gleason. Frankly fan's
stress about where the Leafs are now is amazing. It really is too soon for the Leafs. There time
hasn't come yet.

How dare you use actual common sense in this discussion. Damn you!

 

[Joey Hoser]

The flaw is in your argument thinking every playoff run is equal. Sometimes you should add assets even if they leave (when you are a top 3 contender or top 5 with a doable path to the Cup), sometimes it's not worth the risk and should sell.

Personally I think we should've sold both JVR & Bozak in the summer, but even at the trade deadline, it was pretty clear we had 2 guaranteed underdog rounds to start off the playoffs, then a EC finalist and then SC finalist. Contrary to the 'gotta beat the best to be the best' saying, your path to the Cup is actually huge in determining if you make it there. And if you're looking at it from a summer POV, we only just finished 8th place barely squeaking into the playoffs, 0 reason to believe it's a smart idea to waste 2 1sts worth of UFAs on the next year.

IMO this was a horrible year by Lou. We could've had this roster by trading our 3rd line UFAs return of 2 1sts for someone like Tanev signed a GOOD 4th line C instead of a meh one like Moore, and come out better than today's roster and WAY better off for next season.

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Marleau-Kadri-Kapanen
Johnsson-Nylander-Brown
Komarov-Good 4th line C-Martin/?

Rielly-Tanev
Gardiner-Hainsey
Dermott-Zaitsev

All while not losing a single pick


THIS! No idea why the anti-trade crew says we're stuck in rebuilding when most that wanted to trade the 2, just wanted them to be converted into easily traceable assets that we could fit for pieces we need instead of the excess we kept

No. I don't think all playoff runs are equal. If the Leafs squeaked into the playoffs with 93 points or something, then your argument would have a lot more merit. But, the Leafs were a 105 point team that finished 7th overall.

 

[Trapper]

How would we come up with a list of potential trade partners?

- Remove all non-playoff teams. If they wanted any of these players, they could just wait until the summer.
There are no non-playoff teams in the summer.

- Remove all playoff teams that don't have Cap space. Or should the Leafs retain salary?
Again, you have time to make adjustments to your roster. If you are acquiring JVR, you are working his 4 million dollar salary for the 17-18 season in.
If Montreal moves Pacioretty this summer, teams are making adjustments for his 4 million dollar salary.

- Remove all teams that JVR and Bozak don't want to play for. -They have limited no-trade clauses.
I'm not sure what his list is but half the league should be available to us.

- Remove all teams that don't need their particular skillset because it would be redundant for their teams
and doesn't address their weaknesses.
A lot of teams required scoring this year. From Anaheim to LA to Edmonton and down the list. It was a constant on TSN. Teams looking for scoring wingers.
Your points are reading like a trade deadline acquisition. The trade deadline was to late.

Now after careful consideration by opposing General Managers, weighing these options open to the Leafs,
offer them what they're worth in this market. As the Leaf's GM, consider the signal this sends to the club.
Are you going to be excited after all the training, practice, travel, games, etc... and imagining the playoffs
and then the G.M. deals core players away? If you fail in the playoffs, who would you blame?
If you have a player like Komarov doing exactly as the coach is begging everyone to do get dealt, what
message does that send to players who rather be cherry-picking for offense rather then take defensive assignments?
As a young player dedicating themselves to the Leafs, about to sign that new contract... what do you tell
your agent as you see someone who's played their entire career for the Leafs be dealt for a draft pick?
Someone who signed that 'fair' contract in the past? You tell your agent, 'It's just business'.

This isn't some video game trade. There's people involved. It's not just the players that get dealt,
it's the players left behind. If the Leafs weren't going to make the playoffs and you could maybe give
a veteran player a chance at the Cup, it's understandable. If you were able to parley a deal into a
valuable defenseman? Maybe people are sad to see their teammate go, but would understand it
from a hockey perspective. But for low odd draft picks? You're killing the number one goal, which
is to turn the Leafs into not just a winning hockey team, but a winning organization. The rest will
follow. The fact is, the Leafs still haven't even gotten out of paying for Tim Gleason. Frankly fan's
stress about where the Leafs are now is amazing. It really is too soon for the Leafs. There time
hasn't come yet.

 

[The Apologist]

No. I don't think all playoff runs are equal. If the Leafs squeaked into the playoffs with 93 points or something, then your argument would have a lot more merit. But, the Leafs were a 105 point team that finished 7th overall.

Exactly this. If we lose in the first round, does that mean this season was a failure? I dont get the mentality around here. This is a good team. It was a good team going in to the playoffs.
It will be a good team next season as well, probably with some solid veteran FAs in the mix.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yup that whole post was based on the TDL.
They apparently did try and move JVR in the summer but it failed to come together
Regardless of how you spin it, watching a 30 goal scorer and 4 or 5 others walk for nothing, while giving up 2nd round picks + for 20 games or so, stings. Especially if they get bounced again in the first round. If Gardiner walks too after this year, is that again no big deal? Is the (first round) "playoff experience"worth losing out on assets?


Lou has his work cut out for him this summer and I'll reserve judgement until then. But right now, it ain't looking too good

 

[81Leafs50]

trading away Bozak, Komarov, and JVR pretty guarantees a sweep in the first round for Boston so Lou could not have made those trades. The fan base would have gone nuts shouting "at least give this team a chance with the pieces that got you here". But now if this playoff series ends 4-1 walking away from JVR, Bozak, and Komarov is made easier. No one would be upset if Lou brought none of the UFA's back. Makes sense.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Theoretical question for all those saying teams in contention just don't trade pending UFA's etc.:

If you somehow knew with 100% certainty that we would lose in the 1st round no matter what, would you then think we would be better off trading them and having extra picks in the upcoming draft?

Follow up question:

Same question as above, but change 100% certainty to 99%.

I'm just curious. Thanks to anyone willing to play.

 

[Cams]

So.....people want to perpetually sell UFA for potential, but will still get upset when you sell scoring and then fail in the playoffs?

Sounds like some are asking for a perpetual rebuild, and just take whatever for pending UFA players, even if it hurts your current roster which is going to the playoffs, thus weakening your chance of a potential longer run, just because player "X" is pending UFA.

Sure, hindsight is 20/20 sometimes, but are we even having this discussion if the series is tied or 3-1 for the Leafs???? What would you consider success for not dealing these UFAs? Cup or bust? Or is unkown position draft picks the be all/end all????

 

[Trapper]

So.....people want to perpetually sell UFA for potential, but will still get upset when you sell scoring and then fail in the playoffs?

Sounds like some are asking for a perpetual rebuild, and just take whatever for pending UFA players, even if it hurts your current roster which is going to the playoffs, thus weakening your chance of a potential longer run, just because player "X" is pending UFA.

Sure, hindsight is 20/20 sometimes, but are we even having this discussion if the series is tied or 3-1 for the Leafs???? What would you consider success for not dealing these UFAs? Cup or bust? Or is unkown position draft picks the be all/end all????

No we don't want to perpetually sell UFAs for potential.
I don't care about Bozak, Komarov, Polak, Moore etc. staying on the team to fill roles this year.

I want a return on the valuable commodities only. A 30 + goal and top 4 D. JVR and Gardiner.
Do you think it's good to let those walk for nothing?
Next year we have Matthews/Kadri down the middle. Don't you think getting a permanent 3C or 4C would be a good thing?
Do you think we could use an extra 1st to maybe try an acquire another steady D?
Things like that.
Will you be happy if Gardiner walks next summer?

 

[Buds17]

Theoretical question for all those saying teams in contention just don't trade pending UFA's etc.:

If you somehow knew with 100% certainty that we would lose in the 1st round no matter what, would you then think we would be better off trading them and having extra picks in the upcoming draft?

Follow up question:

Same question as above, but change 100% certainty to 99%.

I'm just curious. Thanks to anyone willing to play.

To know that/anything with 100% certainty would definitely help. Trouble is, we can assign trade value to the players based on things like other trades, but NTCs and interest/acceptable trade offers from any of those teams has to also line up. It's easier too to sell the promise of tomorrow when doing anything today isn't possible. (why also-ran teams look to trade pending UFAs). There's probably a hedging of bets of playoff potential/experience vs trade return potential as well. No guarantees either way.

99% might change things slightly. We have a somewhat better chance than that of coming back against Boston. Very tough to count on, but anything can't be completely discounted at less than 100%.

 

[thewave]

How would we come up with a list of potential trade partners?

- Remove all non-playoff teams. If they wanted any of these players, they could just wait until the summer.
***Most said trade process of UFA should have started last summer. Teams were told JVR not on market. Highly likely JVR and Bozak could have been traded, in-fact JVR was almost traded but Lou thought he could get more and it fell through.

- Remove all playoff teams that don't have Cap space. Or should the Leafs retain salary?
***We could have retained and started the process earlier by not saying JVR is off the market. I also posted that we had to trade early this year because of volume of good players.

- Remove all teams that JVR and Bozak don't want to play for. -They have limited no-trade clauses.
***They would go to PO teams more than likely.

- Remove all teams that don't need their particular skillset because it would be redundant for their teams and doesn't address their weaknesses.
***Everyone wanted a goal scoring winger pretty much. Bozak type players were also traded.


Now after careful consideration by opposing General Managers, weighing these options open to the Leafs, offer them what they're worth in this market. As the Leaf's GM, consider the signal this sends to the club. ***Depending on what they did with the proceeds of the trade the players would see it as tweaking. If you limit your mind to picks = picks and omit the possibility of TRADE. Sure.
Are you going to be excited after all the training, practice, travel, games, etc... and imagining the playoffs and then the G.M. deals core players away? If you fail in the playoffs, who would you blame?
If you have a player like Komarov doing exactly as the coach is begging everyone to do get dealt, what
message does that send to players who rather be cherry-picking for offense rather then take defensive assignments? ***Komarov is the poster of failure here, if he wasn't traded he should have been in the press box months ago.
As a young player dedicating themselves to the Leafs, about to sign that new contract... what do you tell
your agent as you see someone who's played their entire career for the Leafs be dealt for a draft pick?
Someone who signed that 'fair' contract in the past? You tell your agent, 'It's just business'. ***This is hockey, welcome to the NHL?

This isn't some video game trade. There's people involved. It's not just the players that get dealt,
it's the players left behind. If the Leafs weren't going to make the playoffs and you could maybe give
a veteran player a chance at the Cup, it's understandable. If you were able to parley a deal into a
valuable defenseman? Maybe people are sad to see their teammate go, but would understand it
from a hockey perspective. But for low odd draft picks? You're killing the number one goal, which
is to turn the Leafs into not just a winning hockey team, but a winning organization. The rest will
follow. The fact is, the Leafs still haven't even gotten out of paying for Tim Gleason. Frankly fan's
stress about where the Leafs are now is amazing. It really is too soon for the Leafs. There time
hasn't come yet.

Answers in bold. You are looking at this from a very very basic, watered down and simple minded point of view. I think you should expand and think about it more.

 

[Gary Nylund]

So.....people want to perpetually sell UFA for potential, but will still get upset when you sell scoring and then fail in the playoffs?

Sounds like some are asking for a perpetual rebuild, and just take whatever for pending UFA players, even if it hurts your current roster which is going to the playoffs, thus weakening your chance of a potential longer run, just because player "X" is pending UFA.

Sure, hindsight is 20/20 sometimes, but are we even having this discussion if the series is tied or 3-1 for the Leafs???? What would you consider success for not dealing these UFAs? Cup or bust? Or is unkown position draft picks the be all/end all????

This is something I've seen a lot in these discussions and it's simply not true. Why do you assume that people who wanted to sell this season will always want to sell?

To know that/anything with 100% certainty would definitely help. Trouble is, we can assign trade value to the players based on things like other trades, but NTCs and interest/acceptable trade offers from any of those teams has to also line up. It's easier too to sell the promise of tomorrow when doing anything today isn't possible. (why also-ran teams look to trade pending UFAs). There's probably a hedging of bets of playoff potential/experience vs trade return potential as well. No guarantees either way.

99% might change things slightly. We have a somewhat better chance than that of coming back against Boston. Very tough to count on, but anything can't be completely discounted at less than 100%.

It's just a theoretical exercise. I would hope that a few people might be willing to play but if not, that's OK.

 

[PromisedLand]

I hope not - but the chances are pretty slim

I was one of few that were pretty vocal to trade - will see

Any thoughts?

I remember us debating this in the TDL thread; while other were right there to criticize you, @thewave, GaryNyland and myself.

Obviously we hoped our arguments were wrong and Leafs would succeed but alas we knew what we were talking about; while management's lack of judgment and foresight is probably going to hurt the teams future

 

[New User Name]

So.....people want to perpetually sell UFA for potential, but will still get upset when you sell scoring and then fail in the playoffs?

Sounds like some are asking for a perpetual rebuild, and just take whatever for pending UFA players, even if it hurts your current roster which is going to the playoffs, thus weakening your chance of a potential longer run, just because player "X" is pending UFA.

Sure, hindsight is 20/20 sometimes, but are we even having this discussion if the series is tied or 3-1 for the Leafs???? What would you consider success for not dealing these UFAs? Cup or bust? Or is unkown position draft picks the be all/end all????

No one is saying that

 

[Iapyi]

Honestly have no faith in management or Babcock. I don't trust them to make difficult decisions with the long view in mind. Trading JVR/Bozak would have been a difficult decision that some fans might not have liked, but it was the right move long-term.

Sounds like an Area 51 mind set.

 

[GoonieFace]

I remember us debating this in the TDL thread; while other were right there to criticize you, @thewave, GaryNyland and myself.

Obviously we hoped our arguments were wrong and Leafs would succeed but alas we knew what we were talking about; while management's lack of judgment and foresight is probably going to hurt the teams future

I don't think you know what you're talking about. There is nothing that happened this season that will hurt the Leafs future. They have plenty of good young players that can step into the lineup.

Guys like Kapanen and to a lesser extent Johnsson were not able to crack the initial roster, but have now shown they can play in this league. Johnsson and Kapanen were able to play big minutes and gain experience at the AHL level this year because we kept Bozak and JVR.

Its managements foresight and judgement that kept them from trading these guys at the deadline. They were able to insulate our younger players and allow them to play in a role that didn't put them in over their heads. This is how good teams are built.

Leave your fantasy video game mentality and live in the real world.

 

[ToMaLe]

I said at the TD that we should sell the UFAs for 2 reasons. One, we are still a very young team and are a couple years away, load up now on picks and prospects because we will be there for many years in the playoffs. One last sell off for prospects and picks before we become a true contender, and what do we do, waste a high 2nd pick on another 4th line C for 25+ games two years in a row. And two, if we did not have any one to replace them I could see it, but we did have replacements. The difference between pleks and Moore is not worth a 2nd, Johnsson and Kappy could of been moved up in the lineup, Leivo inserted, Martin on the 4th line. Had lots of replacements for Polak. Those picks and prospects could of gotten us a really good defensemen also, instead of wasting on a 4c. IMO we missed the boat on this.

 

[The Apologist]

No one is saying that

But many are implying it, whether they mean to or not.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Theoretical question for all those saying teams in contention just don't trade pending UFA's etc.:

If you somehow knew with 100% certainty that we would lose in the 1st round no matter what, would you then think we would be better off trading them and having extra picks in the upcoming draft?

Follow up question:

Same question as above, but change 100% certainty to 99%.

I'm just curious. Thanks to anyone willing to play.

I'll play.

If we somehow knew 100% or 99% then of course we should have traded them. Who in their right mind would keep them under those circumstances?

But that's not remotely close to what happened. We're a 105 point team that finished 7th overall. We are/were barely underdogs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

But many are implying it, whether they mean to or not.

Nope. You're assuming things. Why?

 

[The Apologist]

I said at the TD that we should sell the UFAs for 2 reasons. One, we are still a very young team and are a couple years away, load up now because we will be there for many years in the playoffs. One last sell off for prospects and picks before we become a true contender, and what do we do waste a high 2nd pick on another 4th line C for 25+ games two years in a row. And two, if we did not have any one to replace them I could see it, but we did have replacements. The difference between pleks and Moore is not worth a 2nd, Johnsson and Kappy could of been moved up in the lineup, Leivo inserted, Martin on the 4th line. Had lots of replacements for Polak. IMO we missed the boat on this.

Yes, you have said this many times. Many people disagree with you, management included. Johnsson and Kapanen do not 'replace' the players being traded. Filling a roster spot is not the same thing as replacing someone. I get that we are all very high on our prospects but the assumption that these players are somehow locks to be substantial NHLers and game by game contributors is not a rational one.
If anyone in the NHL thought Leivo was a bonafide NHL player at this point in his career (not saying future wise, because well who knows) he would be by now. Someone would have made an offer to take him off our hands.

Some of them at some point will be daily NHL players I'm sure, but to think that they will all just slot right in to a 100 plus point top ten NHL team and start replacing 30g and 50pt players without significant drop off is completely unrealistic.