Isn't he kind of the perfect fit for this team moving forward? Forget all the "we need a first line center" or the "Bozak would be a perfect 3rd line center on a Cup team" or even the ridiculous "career AHLer" lines for just a second and let's think about the team for a second. Let's assume Lupul and JVR stay healthy and maintain this level of impact, meaning they have long-term cap-friendly deals. Beyond these two, Grabovski is the only forward locked up beyond next season. That means Kessel, Kulemin, MacArthur, McClement and most importantly, Kadri, will all need new contracts in the next two years.
The Kessel contract is tough to predict but I have a hard time seeing him accepting less than he's making now, even with a new salary cap.
I doubt we let Kulemin walk and he's probably looking at a similar contract to what he's at right now.
You can expect McClement to want a raise - and the Leafs to give it to him. $3/year wouldn't be out of the question.
Kadri is also a tough one to predict but players with his combination of skill and compete level should always be taken care of. Whether or not he gets a bridge deal, he's going to want to cash in in a few years and we're going to need to be prepared to pay him. Not a stretch to say he'll be our highest paid forward sooner rather than later.
MacArthur may end up being the odd man out here. He hasn't distinguished himself as a difference-maker and I love that he's a guy who consistently shows up when we play the tougher teams but I don't think we give Mac what he wants.
That means our options to fill out the top 9 are:
- Mac at $2.5-$3
- current fringe guy like Frattin, Colborne or Komarov
- future promotion like D'Amigo, Ross, Biggs, etc
- UFA
So the top nine look like this:
Lupul ($5.25) - ??? - Kessel ($5.5)
Kulemin ($3) - Grabovski ($5.5) - McClement ($3)
JVR ($4.25) - Kadri ($6) - MacArthur ($3)
Throw another $3 at the fourth line - McLaren, Komarov, whoever.
So in total our forwards minus the elusive "1st line center" total $38.5.
Now a look at the defense.
Only Liles is locked in past 2014 at $3.8.
I have a hard time seeing us letting Phaneuf walk. Some people would argue he's not worth $6.5 but he'll only be 30 and it's not a stretch to imagine someone would offer him that. Let's say the captain re-signs for where he's at.
Kostka's been fun but he's not around in two years.
Gunnarsson, Franson, Gardiner and Fraser are all looking at raises. Also possible that Morgan Rielly will be a beautiful part of the picture within the next two years. The way Franson's played this year coupled with the fact that he's our only right-handed shot makes him pretty valuable to us. If Liles is worth $3.8, Franson is absolutely worth $4.
Gardiner is a bit of a wild card. He's struggled this year but he's got the talent to break out. Split the difference and we'll say he gets $3.
Gunnarsson and Fraser but both have value to the Leafs. Fraser could be the guy we pair with the Rielly's, the Blacker's or the Percy's to protect them as they integrate into the lineup. Give them a combined $4.
That leaves the D looking like this:
Phaneuf ($6.5)
Franson ($4)
Liles ($3.8)
Gardiner ($3)
Gunnar ($2.8)
Fraser ($1.2)
Totalling... ($21.3)
Both Reimer and Scrivens will need new contracts after next season.
If we've actually found a starting goalie in Reimer, and I believe we have, we're going to have to pay him like one. Reimer gets $4.
In summation,
Forwards, minus top line center - $38.5
Defense - $21.3
Goalies - $4
That puts us at $63.8. You can play around with the salaries - maybe Franson, Phaneuf, etc don't get paid quite as much. Maybe we don't re-sign Mac, maybe Grabovski gets traded, maybe we amnesty Liles. Bottom line is we're right up against the projected cap without a 7th d-man, 13th forward or a back-up goalie.
All this leads me to my point. We won't have the secondary scoring to stack our top line. Back away from the championship formula that every team must have in order to have a chance and take a look at what we've built here. The Leafs are a team with three solid scoring lines and the pieces to put together a solid special teams unit. A guy like Getzlaf or Brad Richards takes away cap space that we will need soon to re-sign our younger players as they develop. We put $8 into a player like that and we lose the dynamic we've been building towards. And there's no guarantee that any player we bring in will be a fit with Kessel, who's historically had a tough time finding a center.
I'll be honest, I'm a huge believer in Bozak and what he brings to the team. 11 points in his last 12 games. He's shown the ability to go on streaks like this in the past. He also kills penalties, wins faceoffs, and hasn't look out of place playing over 20 minutes a game. I think he's still got some offensive upside he hasn't reached yet but he's started to show it the past few games. Re-signing him allows us to roll out three lines that can be dangerous on any given night and it might take some creative moves just to get him signed.
The bottom line is that Bozak will never be Ryan Getzlaf, but we don't need him to be. He fits the team, he knows his role, and he's been playing cost-effective, heavy minutes on a young team that has already beaten some of the top teams in the league. Why not keep the course?
