The Daily Bozak Thread

[Alexanderthe89]

Isn't he kind of the perfect fit for this team moving forward? Forget all the "we need a first line center" or the "Bozak would be a perfect 3rd line center on a Cup team" or even the ridiculous "career AHLer" lines for just a second and let's think about the team for a second. Let's assume Lupul and JVR stay healthy and maintain this level of impact, meaning they have long-term cap-friendly deals. Beyond these two, Grabovski is the only forward locked up beyond next season. That means Kessel, Kulemin, MacArthur, McClement and most importantly, Kadri, will all need new contracts in the next two years.

The Kessel contract is tough to predict but I have a hard time seeing him accepting less than he's making now, even with a new salary cap.

I doubt we let Kulemin walk and he's probably looking at a similar contract to what he's at right now.

You can expect McClement to want a raise - and the Leafs to give it to him. $3/year wouldn't be out of the question.

Kadri is also a tough one to predict but players with his combination of skill and compete level should always be taken care of. Whether or not he gets a bridge deal, he's going to want to cash in in a few years and we're going to need to be prepared to pay him. Not a stretch to say he'll be our highest paid forward sooner rather than later.

MacArthur may end up being the odd man out here. He hasn't distinguished himself as a difference-maker and I love that he's a guy who consistently shows up when we play the tougher teams but I don't think we give Mac what he wants.


That means our options to fill out the top 9 are:

- Mac at $2.5-$3
- current fringe guy like Frattin, Colborne or Komarov
- future promotion like D'Amigo, Ross, Biggs, etc
- UFA


So the top nine look like this:


Lupul ($5.25) - ??? - Kessel ($5.5)

Kulemin ($3) - Grabovski ($5.5) - McClement ($3)

JVR ($4.25) - Kadri ($6) - MacArthur ($3)


Throw another $3 at the fourth line - McLaren, Komarov, whoever.

So in total our forwards minus the elusive "1st line center" total $38.5.



Now a look at the defense.

Only Liles is locked in past 2014 at $3.8.

I have a hard time seeing us letting Phaneuf walk. Some people would argue he's not worth $6.5 but he'll only be 30 and it's not a stretch to imagine someone would offer him that. Let's say the captain re-signs for where he's at.

Kostka's been fun but he's not around in two years.

Gunnarsson, Franson, Gardiner and Fraser are all looking at raises. Also possible that Morgan Rielly will be a beautiful part of the picture within the next two years. The way Franson's played this year coupled with the fact that he's our only right-handed shot makes him pretty valuable to us. If Liles is worth $3.8, Franson is absolutely worth $4.

Gardiner is a bit of a wild card. He's struggled this year but he's got the talent to break out. Split the difference and we'll say he gets $3.

Gunnarsson and Fraser but both have value to the Leafs. Fraser could be the guy we pair with the Rielly's, the Blacker's or the Percy's to protect them as they integrate into the lineup. Give them a combined $4.

That leaves the D looking like this:

Phaneuf ($6.5)
Franson ($4)
Liles ($3.8)
Gardiner ($3)
Gunnar ($2.8)
Fraser ($1.2)

Totalling... ($21.3)


Both Reimer and Scrivens will need new contracts after next season.

If we've actually found a starting goalie in Reimer, and I believe we have, we're going to have to pay him like one. Reimer gets $4.

In summation,

Forwards, minus top line center - $38.5
Defense - $21.3
Goalies - $4

That puts us at $63.8. You can play around with the salaries - maybe Franson, Phaneuf, etc don't get paid quite as much. Maybe we don't re-sign Mac, maybe Grabovski gets traded, maybe we amnesty Liles. Bottom line is we're right up against the projected cap without a 7th d-man, 13th forward or a back-up goalie.





All this leads me to my point. We won't have the secondary scoring to stack our top line. Back away from the championship formula that every team must have in order to have a chance and take a look at what we've built here. The Leafs are a team with three solid scoring lines and the pieces to put together a solid special teams unit. A guy like Getzlaf or Brad Richards takes away cap space that we will need soon to re-sign our younger players as they develop. We put $8 into a player like that and we lose the dynamic we've been building towards. And there's no guarantee that any player we bring in will be a fit with Kessel, who's historically had a tough time finding a center.

I'll be honest, I'm a huge believer in Bozak and what he brings to the team. 11 points in his last 12 games. He's shown the ability to go on streaks like this in the past. He also kills penalties, wins faceoffs, and hasn't look out of place playing over 20 minutes a game. I think he's still got some offensive upside he hasn't reached yet but he's started to show it the past few games. Re-signing him allows us to roll out three lines that can be dangerous on any given night and it might take some creative moves just to get him signed.

The bottom line is that Bozak will never be Ryan Getzlaf, but we don't need him to be. He fits the team, he knows his role, and he's been playing cost-effective, heavy minutes on a young team that has already beaten some of the top teams in the league. Why not keep the course?

Click to read more...

 

[Rielly4]

Your cap system doesnt really make sense, but your right, when players like Reimer Kadri Gardiner and even eventually Rielly need raises, Bozak sittin pretty at 3.5 will look nice. Bozaks a guy whos best friends with our top forward Kessel and they have great chemistry, he wins faceoffs plays PK PP and is a good effective player, he bleeds blue and white has never played on another team, hes a beauty... Keep him around, find a 3rd line center with some grit who can put up decent numbers and amplify a 3rd line that can grind and score... Dave Bolland would be perfect.

 

[SkateSave]

Say what you want about Bozak, but he's a guy who's been steadily and consistently improving. I see him turning into a pretty savvy veteran with lots of interstitial skills that bring lines together.

I don't think trading him will ever get you back the value of him being a leaf.

 

[Kessley Snipes*]

Bozak and Kessel are also friends/roommates. I think its good to keep him around because it will keep phil happy

 

[Alexanderthe89]

Your cap system doesnt really make sense, but your right, when players like Reimer Kadri Gardiner and even eventually Rielly need raises, Bozak sittin pretty at 3.5 will look nice. Bozaks a guy whos best friends with our top forward Kessel and they have great chemistry, he wins faceoffs plays PK PP and is a good effective player, he bleeds blue and white has never played on another team, hes a beauty... Keep him around, find a 3rd line center with some grit who can put up decent numbers and amplify a 3rd line that can grind and score... Dave Bolland would be perfect.

Apologies for the confusion - it's late and it made sense in my head. Guess it didn't translate when I typed it out!

But I'm glad you saw my point. I got really tired of seeing the Leafs give up on prospects before they developed. It's going to be even more frustrating to see them squeeze out the players that have already developed into nice players. I think our fanbase is (justifiably) negative towards our players but the truth is that we have a solid core to build around and it would be a real shame to see that blown up in order to over-pay for a top-tier guy that may not fit into our system.

 

[Disgruntled Observer*]

If the argument is that Bozak is a good fit for the team because he's so lousy that he won't demand a contract with a high cap hit... uh... well.... I guess I agree?

Remember... he's a player with 1st line minutes, 1st line players, and 1st line PP time... and only scores 45 points.

That's about as successful as a 3rd line player (with 3rd line minutes, zero PP time, and 3rd line player) scoring negative 10 points (accidentally scoring on his own net 10 times during the season).

But at least his cap hit will be low...

 

[TMLife*]

We need him teaching kadri faceoffs ASAP!

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Whatever they do in the off-season, I hope to god they don't re-sign Bozak. He is a 3rd liner who can win faceoffs and kill penalties but not much more than that. His defense is weak at even strength and so his offense. The only reason he can even put up 40 points is because he plays with Kessel and either Lupul/JVR the past two seasons. Along with that, he gets a ridiculous amount of minutes at even strength and powerplay but he's not a point producer.

If some team wants to pay him 3-4M or whatever, let them. If he wants to sign for something like 2-2.5 over 3-4 years, sure, that's fine but I wouldn't pay any more than that for a depth player. Depth players aren't bad at all, every team needs them but they are also very replaceable for cheap and not guys you overpay to keep around.

 

[Disgruntled Observer*]

Whatever they do in the off-season, I hope to god they don't re-sign Bozak. He is a 3rd liner who can win faceoffs and kill penalties but not much more than that. His defense is weak at even strength and so his offense. The only reason he can even put up 40 points is because he plays with Kessel and either Lupul/JVR the past two seasons. Along with that, he gets a ridiculous amount of minutes at even strength and powerplay but he's not a point producer.

If some team wants to pay him 3-4M or whatever, let them. If he wants to sign for something like 2-2.5 over 3-4 years, sure, that's fine but I wouldn't pay any more than that for a depth player. Depth players aren't bad at all, every team needs them but they are also very replaceable for cheap and not guys you overpay to keep around.

Good post.

But I really do wonder what would happen to Bozaks production if he were moved to the 3rd line.
Right now we have Grabo on the 3rd line, on pace for near 20 goals.
And Bozak can't even score 20 goals on the FIRST line. What would happen with the decrease in minutes, PP time, and talented line mates?
I think his production would drop astronomically, and he would have very few defenders around here.

I think a lot of fans look at his stats and say "they're not bad for a 3rd liner"... all the while forgetting that 3rd liners stats are usually lower specifically because they are relegated to the 3rd line (with 3rd line minutes, pp time, and linemates).

 

[thunderhawk905*]

Bozak stays.

Not sure what the Leafs are going to do but my gut says that the Leafs offload MacArthur among a couple others to be able to re-sign some of our keepers.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Good post.

But I really do wonder what would happen to Bozaks production if he were moved to the 3rd line.
Right now we have Grabo on the 3rd line, on pace for near 20 goals.
And Bozak can't even score 20 goals on the FIRST line. What would happen with the decrease in minutes, PP time, and talented line mates?
I think his production would drop astronomically, and he would have very few defenders around here.

I think a lot of fans look at his stats and say "they're not bad for a 3rd liner"... all the while forgetting that 3rd liners stats are usually lower specifically because they are relegated to the 3rd line (with 3rd line minutes, pp time, and linemates).

That doesn't even make any sense. If Bozak was on a sheltered line, he would be taking on significantly weaker opposition. In fact, that would actually increase his offence.

We see the same with shuffling of Nash in today's game. His output is much higher when Phaneuf is off the ice. That would be the case for any player in the NHL. Point being, Bozak is a top-six forward.

 

[ConnorTO]

people can go oh yeah this guy would not be playing on another team
or a 3rd line center this and that

what we know is... he seems like a great fit for Toronto
on the first line... via Kessel

their buddies so it's all good

 

[Disgruntled Observer*]

That doesn't even make any sense. If Bozak was on a sheltered line, he would be taking on significantly weaker opposition. In fact, that would actually increase his offence.

We see the same with shuffling of Nash in today's game. His output is much higher when Phaneuf is off the ice. That would be the case for any player in the NHL. Point being, Bozak is a top-six forward.

What you say above is a common misconception people make.

Put it this way... Bozak on the 1st line has 1st line line mates. Right? He's playing with elite players.
But he also plays against 1st rate defenders.
Sure.

Now...
Bozak on the 3rd line has THIRD LINE LINE MATES, while playing against 3rd rate defenders.

The 2 cancel each other out.

But then you must add into the mix that 3rd line players have substantially less time on ice, as well as limited/no PP time.

What do you get when all equations are included? A DRAMATIC drop in production when someone is moved to the 3rd line.

 

[The Blue Devil]

Really hate the whole "Bozak and Kessel are buds off the ice and have great on-ice chemistry" crap. They have very little chemistry. Bozak is not a stalwart defensively and he literally creates nothing for Kessel offensively. He has maybe 1 game in every 10 where he actually looks competent offensively. The only thing that he's great at is winning FO's(hasn't been that spectacular since the beginning of March) and his line still manages to get hemmed in their zone 90% of the time.

 

[HOCKEYGOON]

Today... I would keep Bozak over Grabo.


Kadri made Grabo expendable.

 

[SteveV*]

The daily lurching back and forth on Bozak, based on how he does night to night is NAUSEATING.

 

[scooter87]

The daily lurching back and forth on Bozak, based on how he does night to night is NAUSEATING.

Replace Bozak with everything and you're on the money

 

[hotpaws]

Whatever they do in the off-season, I hope to god they don't re-sign Bozak. He is a 3rd liner who can win faceoffs and kill penalties but not much more than that. His defense is weak at even strength and so his offense. The only reason he can even put up 40 points is because he plays with Kessel and either Lupul/JVR the past two seasons. Along with that, he gets a ridiculous amount of minutes at even strength and powerplay but he's not a point producer.

If some team wants to pay him 3-4M or whatever, let them. If he wants to sign for something like 2-2.5 over 3-4 years, sure, that's fine but I wouldn't pay any more than that for a depth player. Depth players aren't bad at all, every team needs them but they are also very replaceable for cheap and not guys you overpay to keep around.

You pretty much nailed it on the head .

If he was on the 3rd line ( where he should be ) playing third lines mins with 3rd line wingers getting little no pp time like other 3rd liners his point production would plummet .

We have to stop overpaying players because there value is inflated due to the fact we have no other option at this present time . We're already stuck with Grabo and to be honest his contract will likely be the reason we let Bozak as and UFA .

 

[The_Chosen_One]

What you say above is a common misconception people make.

Put it this way... Bozak on the 1st line has 1st line line mates. Right? He's playing with elite players.
But he also plays against 1st rate defenders.
Sure.

Scoring against first liner defenders are normally a lot more difficult than lower rate defenders. The simple reason has to do with the fact that shut down types that represent an offensive threat are normally scarce.

Now...
Bozak on the 3rd line has THIRD LINE LINE MATES, while playing against 3rd rate defenders.

The 2 cancel each other out.

No it doesn't, because Bozak isn't a third line player. He isn't a cross checking player. More so, I don't see any working class traits in him. On the other hand, Jay McClement would be a third liner.

Point being, Bozak would be top-six forward playing on a line that is third in minutes. In fact, I don't think his minutes would be that low because he'd represent an offensive threat. The players he'd be playing would be more offensive-oriented forwards.

In other words, Bozak on the third line would be have three offensive lines. It would be a sheltered line that would actually represent a threat to the opposition. Problem is that you need working class guys to steer the opposition, maintain leads, and what not. Bozak isn't as effective as McClement in that regard. Besides, he doesn't have characteristics that we see in shut down players.

But then you must add into the mix that 3rd line players have substantially less time on ice, as well as limited/no PP time.

Roughly a quarter of Bozak's points were produced on the power play. For that reason, if he's on a sheltered offensive, even with reduced PP time, he'd probably produce a lot more. The PP is an opportunity to score, but you are going against specialists who will limit one's production.

Put him on a line with someone like Frattin/ Kulemin and it'll be a very threatening line. During Kulemin's 30 goal season, he scored around 25 goals during EE. That kind of performance on a third line is just going to outstretch the opposition defensively. For that reason, I can't expect us maintaining three top six lines because clearly be too expensive.

 

[JackJ]

Whatever they do in the off-season, I hope to god they don't re-sign Bozak. He is a 3rd liner who can win faceoffs and kill penalties but not much more than that. His defense is weak at even strength and so his offense. The only reason he can even put up 40 points is because he plays with Kessel and either Lupul/JVR the past two seasons. Along with that, he gets a ridiculous amount of minutes at even strength and powerplay but he's not a point producer.

If some team wants to pay him 3-4M or whatever, let them. If he wants to sign for something like 2-2.5 over 3-4 years, sure, that's fine but I wouldn't pay any more than that for a depth player. Depth players aren't bad at all, every team needs them but they are also very replaceable for cheap and not guys you overpay to keep around.

but we will sign him.

 

[Anthrax442]

Whatever they do in the off-season, I hope to god they don't re-sign Bozak. He is a 3rd liner who can win faceoffs and kill penalties but not much more than that. His defense is weak at even strength and so his offense. The only reason he can even put up 40 points is because he plays with Kessel and either Lupul/JVR the past two seasons. Along with that, he gets a ridiculous amount of minutes at even strength and powerplay but he's not a point producer.

If some team wants to pay him 3-4M or whatever, let them. If he wants to sign for something like 2-2.5 over 3-4 years, sure, that's fine but I wouldn't pay any more than that for a depth player. Depth players aren't bad at all, every team needs them but they are also very replaceable for cheap and not guys you overpay to keep around.

This.

 

[thewave]

He played ok, why am I one of the only ones to notice all his mistakes? Granted no goals were scored like on the Grabo play but their could have been very easily. He is not a 5m plus player period. I just fear he gets it and we have a second Grabo overpayment.

 

[Bedards Dad]

To me Bozak has earned his stay. He isn't a super star, but there are very few things about his game I don't like, and the pass last night, oh that pass!

 

[yakfish]

The daily lurching back and forth on Bozak, based on how he does night to night is NAUSEATING.

This

 

[The Winter Soldier]

An excellent post game interview of Bozak after last night's win. The Kid has matured into a leader, like his poise and answers.

http://video.mapleleafs.nhl.com/videocenter/console