The Buffalo Sabres are in Free Fall

[Deedog99]

Hockey karma for the massive and embarrassing tank job from 4 years ago.

 

[Helistin]

Hockey karma for the massive and embarrassing tank job from 4 years ago.

Leave them alone. No person whose favorite team suffered from Ville Leino deserve this.

 

[MNRube]

This off season they will sign Skinner and add a top forward. Add a top4 D man as well. They are poised to be a contender with that young talent and with the eventual decline of the Caps, Pens and Bruins, the could be one of the new teams to be in cup contention for years. They also don't have the cap issues of the Leafs going forward.

They will run into the same cap problems as the Leafs if they get as good as you're suggesting. Every contender does. They are looking at overpaying Skinner and still have Okposo on the books for awhile. For the record, I am a big believer in their future as well.

 

[benedictTavares]

They should try and move Okposo even if it means retaining some cash.

 

[member 147413]

Who’s surprised about Buffalo? Their depth sucks, Eichel’s line was playing crazy good hockey and carrying that team.

Goaltending is average, defense is unspectacular. Everything ran through Eichel and that isn’t a recipe for success.

It was as simple as looking at their average goal differential during their hot streak.

 

[chethejet]

They have 30 million in cap space before Skinner who do they need to sign after him? Toronto with two signings is at the cap. But Toronto is much better at center. They also have Bogo off the books after this year and certainly have the financial flexibility to be aggressive here. The future looks promising to me.

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

They have 30 million in cap space before Skinner who do they need to sign after him? Toronto with two signings is at the cap. But Toronto is much better at center. They also have Bogo off the books after this year and certainly have the financial flexibility to be aggressive here. The future looks promising to me.

I agree. This wasn't the year for them to compete. They have as much young talent as anyone,and a ton of cap space. They are going to be very good for a long time. The Atlantic will be a warzone for long time with 5 very good young teams.

 

[sexydonut]

Their results have been bad lately but their play last night was actually good. You guys shouldn't indulge in schadenfreude and hope for another losing season from Buffalo. That just might translate into another lottery pick.

 

[Backhandbeauty]

Hockey karma for the massive and embarrassing tank job from 4 years ago.

Lol so hockey karma picks and chooses who it punishes for tanking?

 

[Royal Thunder]

Results lately have sucked but the team is playing very well. We dominated Vancouver and Edmonton and lost both due to mental mistakes and the inability to both capitalize and also to get a big save. Tons of zone time. We even dominated Tampa for 40 minutes a few games ago. We had 3 own goals in a one goal loss in Carolina. Can't get a break right now but it's not like we have been playing like shit. We're not as bad as the results show lately, and the future is still blindingly bright, even if playoffs don't happen this year. We have the obvious young stars but there are also some great depth pieces like Girgensons, Larsson, McCabe who are playing easily the best hockey of their careers. We just need some time.

#letsgobuffalo

 

[Beerz]

Results lately have sucked but the team is playing very well. We dominated Vancouver and Edmonton and lost both due to mental mistakes and the inability to both capitalize and also to get a big save. Tons of zone time. We even dominated Tampa for 40 minutes a few games ago. We had 3 own goals in a one goal loss in Carolina. Can't get a break right now but it's not like we have been playing like ****. We're not as bad as the results show lately, and the future is still blindingly bright, even if playoffs don't happen this year. We have the obvious young stars but there are also some great depth pieces like Girgensons, Larsson, McCabe who are playing easily the best hockey of their careers. We just need some time.

#letsgobuffalo

And a new coach

 

[Dubi Doo]

Hockey karma for the massive and embarrassing tank job from 4 years ago.

Worth it for Dahlin alone. Eichel is icing on the cake. It'll pay dividends soon.

 

[Snippit]

Removing outliers is not "dumb logic" nor "arbitrary". As with any outlier, "if it was less outlying then it may not actually be an outlier"...k. Thinking that the sabres are going to keep playing how they've been playing for the past now 23 games, instead of their 48 game season average which is elevated due to a 10 game winning streak that you admit is not likely to happen again, is not "ridiculous". But believing that an average developed from a large sample is going to hold over a small sample is the fallacy of averages. The sample of games played is larger and growing. The samples of games remaining is smaller and shrinking. Season average means less and less for protecting remaining games with every game that passes. My argument is that recent play becomes more significant than average play. I didn't cherry pick some bad stretch to project, I picked the group of games that started after the win streak, and they happen to be really bad. Its not like its some 5 or 10 game bad sttetch, its a pretty significant stretch of games now. I could easily see the argument for removing the 5 game losing streak immediately following the winning streak from that sample as another outlier, which causes the sabres to project out slightly better but still not great.

In the end, the only statement I was making was, here's how the sabres would finish if the keep playing how they've been playing since the streak ended. I did not say this is how they definitely will play, but I do believe they're more likely to keep playing how they've been playing than hold to some larger sample season average over the remaining games. How they finish will depend on whether they can get hot again at some point in the remaining games, because outside the 10 game stretch they've been average to very bad. They're likely to keep being average to very bad unless they have another hot stretch of play. You're free to disagree with me. I'd be happy to hear some actually reasoning for why you think I'm erring, but I'm not replying to another no substance post where everything is just "dumb logic" and "ridiculous" just because...

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 9-10 in their last 19 games. If they continue to play at the pace of these past 19 games for the remainder of the year, they will finish at 96-97 points and be a coin flip to make the playoffs. 19 games is a pretty significant sample size (comparable to 21). I know I cut it off at a point right after a long win streak, but long win streaks are outliers and should be removed from the data set. Most recent play is a better indication of how the rest of the season will play out as opposed to the whole season, after all.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Every one laughed at me when I compared them to last years Devils with Eichel in Halls place. And laughed at me again when I brought up how they were getting rocked corsi wise during that streak and coincidentally played against backups every night. This team is on the rise, but is not a very good team yet. They got the gift of all gifts with Backlund, but outside of Eichel and Dahlin, there isn't much there. Skinner could still walk. Reinhart/Middlestadt show signs of potential, but then disappear for a few games.

 

[Mattilaus]

Every one laughed at me when I compared them to last years Devils with Eichel in Halls place. And laughed at me again when I brought up how they were getting rocked corsi wise during that streak and coincidentally played against backups every night. This team is on the rise, but is not a very good team yet. They got the gift of all gifts with Backlund, but outside of Eichel and Dahlin, there isn't much there. Skinner could still walk. Reinhart/Middlestadt show signs of potential, but then disappear for a few games.

Who laughed? The vast majority of people in the thread when they were in the win streak said they were a bubble team that was overperforming so I don't know what you are talking about. I also have no idea what you are talking about with Backlund.

 

[BFLO]

Results lately have sucked but the team is playing very well. We dominated Vancouver and Edmonton and lost both due to mental mistakes and the inability to both capitalize and also to get a big save. Tons of zone time. We even dominated Tampa for 40 minutes a few games ago. We had 3 own goals in a one goal loss in Carolina. Can't get a break right now but it's not like we have been playing like ****. We're not as bad as the results show lately, and the future is still blindingly bright, even if playoffs don't happen this year. We have the obvious young stars but there are also some great depth pieces like Girgensons, Larsson, McCabe who are playing easily the best hockey of their careers. We just need some time.

#letsgobuffalo

The Sabres may be in free fall in the standings but you're right, most nights they really aren't playing bad. They've had really bad luck, some shaky goal tending and some glaring team-defensive break downs and give aways. And the power play is worst in the league right now.

If their luck goes back to 50/50, they cut the break downs by half and if the power play can go league average 1 for 5 they'll start winning 3 out of 5 games again like they were before the 10 game streak.

To anyone not watching any Sabres games, they don't look like the same old tank sabres anymore, they flat out dominate play for long stretches which never used to happen, but they aren't scoring enough while doing it.

 

[Dbrownss]

This off season they will sign Skinner and add a top forward. Add a top4 D man as well. They are poised to be a contender with that young talent and with the eventual decline of the Caps, Pens and Bruins, the could be one of the new teams to be in cup contention for years. They also don't have the cap issues of the Leafs going forward.

What if none of that happens though?

 

[Snippit]

What if none of that happens though?

I don't think they're gonna add a defenceman. Improvement from guys like Dahlin and Mittelstadt is a given though.

Skinner is definitely getting signed though, unless he's asking for obscene money.

 

[Dbrownss]

I don't think they're gonna add a defenceman. Improvement from guys like Dahlin and Mittelstadt is a given though.

Skinner is definitely getting signed though, unless he's asking for obscene money.

There are no givens, neither would be the first rookie to struggle in their 2nd season. Skinner will get a huge overpayment and mostly will not continue his insane goal scoring moving forward.

 

[LeafFever]

They will run into the same cap problems as the Leafs if they get as good as you're suggesting. Every contender does. They are looking at overpaying Skinner and still have Okposo on the books for awhile. For the record, I am a big believer in their future as well.

Buffalo will be worse. They have some bad contracts on the team. Signing UFAs when they were bad was dumb.

 

[sabremike]

There are no givens, neither would be the first rookie to struggle in their 2nd season. Skinner will get a huge overpayment and mostly will not continue his insane goal scoring moving forward.

So after reading that last part you are of the belief that Jack Eichel is going to be crushed by a falling piano like in one of those 1920's silent movies this offseason? Bold.

 

[sabremike]

Buffalo will be worse. They have some bad contracts on the team. Signing UFAs when they were bad was dumb.

You're aware that amnesty buyouts are going to be handed out after the upcoming lockout like the Pope hands out communion wafers right? Also Okposo is the one real bad long term deal left for us.

 

[Dbrownss]

So after reading that last part you are of the belief that Jack Eichel is going to be crushed by a falling piano like in one of those 1920's silent movies this offseason? Bold.

You think he's a true 40-50g scorer? Not likely.

 

[sabremike]

You think he's a true 40-50g scorer? Not likely.

With Eichel constantly setting him up to where all he has to do is put the puck on net and it's a goal? Absolutely. Jack was actually getting goals out of the corpse of Jason Pominville at one point.

 

[Panthaz89]

You think he's a true 40-50g scorer? Not likely.

a 40 goal scorer on Eichel's line...yeah kind of obvious unless you are blind.