The Buffalo Sabres are in Free Fall

Artorius Horus T

sincerety
Nov 12, 2014
19,133
11,839
Suomi/Finland
They pretty much HAVE to beat Calgary or they are pretty much done to go from winning 10 straight to 4 points out of the playoffs is incredible

Yeah but, if they win, they'll catch your Leafs by 2 points, you probably don't want that to happen.

If Boston beats Philadelphia = Boston 59 pts
If Montreal beats Columbus = Montreal 59 pts
If Toronto loses to Tampa = Toronto 58 pts
If Buffalo beats Calgary = Buffalo 54 points
If Carolina beats Ottawa = Carolina 51 pts

Metro:

If Islanders beats New Jersey = NY Islanders 58 pts
If Pittsburgh beats Arizona = Pittsburgh 58 pts
 

LEAFANFORLIFE23

Registered User
Jun 17, 2010
45,389
14,256
Yeah but, if they win, they'll catch your Leafs by 2 points, you probably don't want that to happen.

If Boston beats Philadelphia = Boston 59 pts
If Montreal beats Columbus = Montreal 59 pts
If Toronto loses to Tampa = Toronto 58 pts
If Buffalo beats Calgary = Buffalo 54 points
If Carolina beats Ottawa = Carolina 51 pts

Metro:

If Islanders beats New Jersey = NY Islanders 58 pts
If Pittsburgh beats Arizona = Pittsburgh 58 pts

I have ZERO worry about Buffalo catching Toronto that's just not going to happen .

The Metro is not relevant as long as Toronto is in a top 3 spot in the Atlantic.

Yes they are in a slump but they will pull out they have to much talent.
 

Sabretooth

Registered User
May 14, 2013
3,098
635
Ohio
First 15 games: 7-8
Next 10 games: 10-0
Last 21 games: 6-15

When they were supposed to regress after the win streak, it should have meant back to the level of play they were at before the streak. That first 15 games is what a bubble team looks like. 41 wins is right around the cutoff for playoffs every year so even W/L is pretty much on the bubble. So the people saying oh they've regressed back to being a bubble team, they're really the ones having their opinion clouded by the winning streak. Because for 21 games, the results they've been getting is much worse than bubble team level. More like bottom 5 level. And that's more than a slump at this point. 21 games is pretty significant. It's a quarter of a season, and nearly half the number of games played to date.

There's 36 games left, a bubble team would need ~18 more wins. The sabres are pacing for only 10 based on their last 21 games, putting them around 80pts and right around a top 10 draft pick. At the end of the win streak, sabres fans expected playoffs because they could have just played at a lowly .500 pts% pace for the rest of the season and still had a chance at playoffs. They had 36pts so 57 more points would have put them at 93 - right around the playoff bubble most years. And .500 pts% would have been under performing both expectations and their first 15 games start. Instead they've played at a .381 pts% rate for 21 games. That's tank years bad level of results for quarter of a season.

The real illusion created by the 10 game win streak is thinking now that the sabres are on the bubble fighting for a playoff spot, right where they're expected to be, when the reality is that they're as likely to end up with a top 10 pick unless something changes soon.
 
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The Winter Soldier

Registered User
Apr 4, 2011
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Was surprised they were able to come out on top with a W against the #2 team in the NHL last night. Maybe the Sabres still have some life in them. Big win to stem the tide.
 

The Winter Soldier

Registered User
Apr 4, 2011
70,803
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Not trying to take away from their win last night, just want to point out that the Sabres only had 3 shots on goal after the second period (including overtime).

I didn't watch the game, just noted the result and the winning goal scored by Eichel. Which was a tremendous individual effort.
 

perronist

Registered User
Dec 8, 2008
624
165
Was surprised they were able to come out on top with a W against the #2 team in the NHL last night. Maybe the Sabres still have some life in them. Big win to stem the tide.

they got every single bounce in the book and then some. ullmark made incredible desperation saves and got helped by 3 posts. 3 total shot attempts in the 3rd and 2 goals. still they just managed to drag it to overtime. if they play like that the rest of the season they're not going to make up much ground. but they did play much better against the oilers and lost, depends on their strength of schedule remaining i guess
 

RadekBong

Registered User
Sep 27, 2009
1,117
282
Toronto, Canada
Good pieces that just aren't there yet. They're mediocre this year and their record will ultimately reflect that. Plenty of hope for the future though, so no major need for panic long term IMO.
 

dasaybz

da saybz
Aug 2, 2005
2,747
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they got every single bounce in the book and then some. ullmark made incredible desperation saves and got helped by 3 posts. 3 total shot attempts in the 3rd and 2 goals. still they just managed to drag it to overtime. if they play like that the rest of the season they're not going to make up much ground. but they did play much better against the oilers and lost, depends on their strength of schedule remaining i guess
You mean like the bounce where Pilut got crosschecked in the throat (no penalty) and while he was on the ground Calgary scored?
 
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Jozay

Registered User
Jul 9, 2012
14,612
10,548
Toronto
After that 10 game win streak, all they had to do was go .500 and they'd probably make the playoffs. Sucks for sabre fans, but they're still in the race for a spot, so they should be playing meaningful games late into the season.
 
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leeroggy

Registered User
Jan 3, 2010
9,316
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the islanders have a great coach but questionable defense and goaltending despite the good numbers, lehner s numbers are always good they just mask his inconsistencies. Or bad goal every game.

That 'Questionable defense and goaltending' LEADS the NHL in GAA.

Thank you for not figuring out what Lehner was dealing with and letting us help him . . . now worry about your team instead of putting down ours. One bad goal per game? Gee, take that out of the equation and his GAA is basically 1.20!
 

perronist

Registered User
Dec 8, 2008
624
165
You mean like the bounce where Pilut got crosschecked in the throat (no penalty) and while he was on the ground Calgary scored?

i mean the bounce like a double deflection goal for, 3 posts against, another seeing eye wrister from the point, miracle saves from ullmark (he outplayed rittich, credit to him), a lucky change as the puck bounces away from a 3 on 2 against and turns into a breakaway goal for, gaudreau headmanning a shotless 3 on 1...

full credit to the sabres for being opportunistic, and eichel looked great 3 on 3, but you if really think that gaining the zone twice in total in a tied third period and getting 2 shots in total is how to win games consistently...
 

Panthaz89

Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Panthers fan
Dec 24, 2016
13,194
5,717
Buffalo,NY
i mean the bounce like a double deflection goal for, 3 posts against, another seeing eye wrister from the point, miracle saves from ullmark (he outplayed rittich, credit to him), a lucky change as the puck bounces away from a 3 on 2 against and turns into a breakaway goal for, gaudreau headmanning a shotless 3 on 1...

full credit to the sabres for being opportunistic, and eichel looked great 3 on 3, but you if really think that gaining the zone twice in total in a tied third period and getting 2 shots in total is how to win games consistently...
Yeah well they outshot the hell out of the Oilers and lost 7-2 against the Oilers luck had to come our way eventually.
 

perronist

Registered User
Dec 8, 2008
624
165
Yeah well they outshot the hell out of the Oilers and lost 7-2 against the Oilers luck had to come our way eventually.

no doubt, that's why i said they outplayed the oilers and the rest of the season depends on their strength of schedule. they have enough top end talent to be competitive every game :thumbu:
 

sufferer

Registered User
Dec 6, 2017
3,710
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Eichel also missed several glorious chances, hitting two posts in the process. That's hockey, baby!
 

Tage2Tuch

Because TheJackAttack is in Black
May 10, 2004
9,048
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CAN
That 'Questionable defense and goaltending' LEADS the NHL in GAA.

Thank you for not figuring out what Lehner was dealing with and letting us help him . . . now worry about your team instead of putting down ours. One bad goal per game? Gee, take that out of the equation and his GAA is basically 1.20!



He has good stretches and they are doing very well but it’s half of a regular season I meant compared to the elite, he’s not going to take a team to the cup is what’s i was saying, you are getting to see his good side. He was pretty much like this for stretches in. Buffalo too. He’s playing better now and he may have a run in him, good for him? As for “worrying about my team rather then bashing yours” you didn’t even get the point of the post obviously, you just saw something negative with the islanders and felt compelled to say something like this, it’s pointless. I’ve watched robin lehner every game for YEARS....YEARS....you have what 25 games or so? I mean come on....I’m not saying he’s doomed or not good enough, we see goalies go on runs all the time in just saying how it’s been with him.
 

rent free

Registered User
Apr 6, 2015
20,427
6,114
If they didn't have the 10 game winning streak, this would have been a normal occurrence for the season. Thank god for that.
 

Snippit

Registered User
Dec 5, 2012
16,585
9,910
First 15 games: 7-8
Next 10 games: 10-0
Last 21 games: 6-15

When they were supposed to regress after the win streak, it should have meant back to the level of play they were at before the streak. That first 15 games is what a bubble team looks like. 41 wins is right around the cutoff for playoffs every year so even W/L is pretty much on the bubble. So the people saying oh they've regressed back to being a bubble team, they're really the ones having their opinion clouded by the winning streak. Because for 21 games, the results they've been getting is much worse than bubble team level. More like bottom 5 level. And that's more than a slump at this point. 21 games is pretty significant. It's a quarter of a season, and nearly half the number of games played to date.

There's 36 games left, a bubble team would need ~18 more wins. The sabres are pacing for only 10 based on their last 21 games, putting them around 80pts and right around a top 10 draft pick. At the end of the win streak, sabres fans expected playoffs because they could have just played at a lowly .500 pts% pace for the rest of the season and still had a chance at playoffs. They had 36pts so 57 more points would have put them at 93 - right around the playoff bubble most years. And .500 pts% would have been under performing both expectations and their first 15 games start. Instead they've played at a .381 pts% rate for 21 games. That's tank years bad level of results for quarter of a season.

The real illusion created by the 10 game win streak is thinking now that the sabres are on the bubble fighting for a playoff spot, right where they're expected to be, when the reality is that they're as likely to end up with a top 10 pick unless something changes soon.

Here's another way to look at it:

First 25: 17-8
Next 21: 6-15

I don't get why you're prorating the rest of the season based on their worst stretch. The reality is that their win percentage in the final 36 games will most likely fall in between the two.

This is something that people do that has never made sense to me. "They won too many games during this period of time, therefore everything must be discounted". If Buffalo had lost a couple of extra games in the 10 game streak, nobody would be arbitrarily removing the whole thing.
 

Sabretooth

Registered User
May 14, 2013
3,098
635
Ohio
Here's another way to look at it:

First 25: 17-8
Next 21: 6-15

I don't get why you're prorating the rest of the season based on their worst stretch. The reality is that their win percentage in the final 36 games will most likely fall in between the two.

This is something that people do that has never made sense to me. "They won too many games during this period of time, therefore everything must be discounted". If Buffalo had lost a couple of extra games in the 10 game streak, nobody would be arbitrarily removing the whole thing.
I'm treating the win streak is an outlier. That is not to say that it didn't happen and doesn't count. Only that the odds of it happening again in the now 35 remaining games is small enough that it shouldn't be included in projecting the remaining games.

Suppose an otherwise .500 team has a 10 game win streak somewhere in the middle of a 50 game stretch, so on the season they're actually .600 averaging it out. That doesn't mean they should be expected to play at a .600 pace the remaining 32 games. They're most likely just a .500 team that got hot for 10 games and will continue to be a .500 team.

I'm applying the same logic to the sabres. They were a .500 winning% team for 15 games. Then they got hot for 10 games. Then they've been a ~.300 winning% team ever since. As the number of remaining games keeps reducing, season averages mean less and less because there's just not enough games left to average out what was attained over a larger sample size encompasing big swings in results like hot and cold streaks.
 

sabremike

Friend To All Giraffes
Aug 30, 2010
22,544
33,789
Brewster, NY
I really badly want to bump a thread filled with cocky Sabres fans where I told them it doesn't take much to go from tops in the league to out of the playoffs.

I won't do it for the sake of the Mods sanity.
To quote Ron White: " Next time you have a thought... Just let it go."
 

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