The Andrew MacDonald Discussion Thread

[JojoTheWhale]

(since Provorov had a higher GA, he couldn't be padding MacDonald's numbers).

You don't understand context or the point of Rated or Expected metrics. At all. It's actually stunning how many ways this methodology is flawed. This might be your masterpiece.

Even if we toss out the improvement in Provorov from the beginning of the year to the end (which would be insane), you're starting with the premise that it would make sense to examine Provorov's numbers away from MacDonald and ignore the rest. You've taken a sample size of ~540 minutes and attempted to use it to prove a point while ignoring a sample size of ~850 for....well I have no idea why.

You've also stunningly managed to ignore ice time completely. Of MacDonald's 10 minute+ 5v5 pairings over the same 2 year sample size, only AMac-Gudas for 80 minutes and AMac-Streit for 30 have a lower GA/60 than AMac-Provorov, with the latter being a virtual tie. To be clear, of the 5v5 minutes MacDonald has played in the last 2 years away from Provorov, ~128 minutes were spent at a lower raw GA/60 while ~730 were at a higher rate.

Then there's the part where you forget defense partners exist. Away from each other, Provorov spent ~369 minutes with Brandon Manning and Mark Streit's embalmed corpse. When paired with an NHL defenseman, albeit only in ~170 minutes, every single GA/60 was better away from MacDonald. That's not enough sample size to draw on to make any sort of conclusion, but it's in line with the backwards thinking you started with, so hey, when in Rome. Meanwhile, ~600 of MacDonald's minutes away from Provorov came with Gostisbehere. Next most common were Gudas for 80 and MDZ for 60.

What happens when you compare GA/60 rates with common partners? Let's stick to 20 minutes or more in an attempt to not be completely out to lunch. Format is Partner: Provorov / AMac.

Gostisbehere: 1.25 / 1.97
MDZ: 1.94 / 2.89
Gudas: 1.57 / 1.49
Manning: 2.39 / 2.89
Streit: 3.35 / 1.93

So what those numbers are actually telling you is that Provorov/Streit got bombed early in the year. That's it. Context. To take it a step further, I'll give you one guess what happens to those Streit numbers if you take out the Chicago game. Sample sizes are fun.

This bothers me because it's the type of throw crap at the wall attempt at analysis that gives analytics a bad name. At least care enough to understand what the numbers you're quoting are attempting to explain and what they are not. Don't just open up a hockey-ref tab and vomit out nonsense.

 

[Rebels57]

You don't understand context or the point of Rated or Expected metrics. At all. It's actually stunning how many ways this methodology is flawed. This might be your masterpiece.

Even if we toss out the improvement in Provorov from the beginning of the year to the end (which would be insane), you're starting with the premise that it would make sense to examine Provorov's numbers away from MacDonald and ignore the rest. You've taken a sample size of ~540 minutes and attempted to use it to prove a point while ignoring a sample size of ~850 for....well I have no idea why.

You've also stunningly managed to ignore ice time completely. Of MacDonald's 10 minute+ 5v5 pairings over the same 2 year sample size, only AMac-Gudas for 80 minutes and AMac-Streit for 30 have a lower GA/60 than AMac-Provorov, with the latter being a virtual tie. To be clear, of the 5v5 minutes MacDonald has played in the last 2 years away from Provorov, ~128 minutes were spent at a lower raw GA/60 while ~730 were at a higher rate.

Then there's the part where you forget defense partners exist. Away from each other, Provorov spent ~369 minutes with Brandon Manning and Mark Streit's embalmed corpse. When paired with an NHL defenseman, albeit only in ~170 minutes, every single GA/60 was better away from MacDonald. That's not enough sample size to draw on to make any sort of conclusion, but it's in line with the backwards thinking you started with, so hey, when in Rome. Meanwhile, ~600 of MacDonald's minutes away from Provorov came with Gostisbehere. Next most common were Gudas for 80 and MDZ for 60.

What happens when you compare GA/60 rates with common partners? Let's stick to 20 minutes or more in an attempt to not be completely out to lunch. Format is Partner: Provorov / AMac.

Gostisbehere: 1.25 / 1.97
MDZ: 1.94 / 2.89
Gudas: 1.57 / 1.49
Manning: 2.39 / 2.89
Streit: 3.35 / 1.93

So what those numbers are actually telling you is that Provorov/Streit got bombed early in the year. That's it. Context. To take it a step further, I'll give you one guess what happens to those Streit numbers if you take out the Chicago game. Sample sizes are fun.

This bothers me because it's the type of throw crap at the wall attempt at analysis that gives analytics a bad name. At least care enough to understand what the numbers you're quoting are attempting to explain and what they are not. Don't just open up a hockey-ref tab and vomit out nonsense.

 

[Foggy14]

Coburn was a much superior skater than MacDonald. He also had a noticeable size advantage. Coburn also excelled in gap control.

MacDonald isn’t a bad skater but I don’t think it means much. It’s not that he’s just lacking mentally he just isn’t really skilled. His coordination is awful too.

Sorry if my post made it seem that I was making a blanket comparison between Amac and Coburn. I wasn't. But one trait that I've seen in both is an occasional lag in on-ice decision making that's caused problems. It isn't a lack of innate intelligence. Coburn is a very smart guy and, as far as I can tell, Andy is too. It's more to do with the speed of decision-making and commitment to a particular decision. Some guys are just quicker in this element of what gets thrown under the general heading of "Hockey IQ."

When Braydon was with the Flyers, I recall Bill Meltzer commenting that his decision-making could be slightly behind the play and that this could cause him some problems. FWIW, I see the same thing with Amac.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

AMac makes the worst defensemen in WAR list according to @DTMAboutHeart...

I like how he used a "Top 20 Blended" - very appropriate for rating a Hakstok defenseman.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Every time he tries to make a kicksave on a shot he isn't in position to block fully, he should be beaten by the goalie. Stop that. f***ing stop it.

Him doing that has led to goals I can remember going off his thigh, his knee, his calf, his foot, and several off his skate blade. If you aren't going to block 100% of it get the f*** out of the way and let your goalie do it. He's better at kicksaves.

 

[Embiid]

Every time he tries to make a kicksave on a shot he isn't in position to block fully, he should be beaten by the goalie. Stop that. ****ing stop it.

Him doing that has led to goals I can remember going off his thigh, his knee, his calf, his foot, and several off his skate blade. If you aren't going to block 100% of it get the **** out of the way and let your goalie do it. He's better at kicksaves.

I don’t know why but this post reminds me of all the Luke Schenn talk when the Flyers traded for him and how the Leaf fans made fun of Schenn’s blocks ...in particular his flamingo stance. I don’t recall ever seeing it though...lol

 

[Beef Invictus]

I don’t know why but this post reminds me of all the Luke Schenn talk when the Flyers traded for him and how the Leaf fans made fun of Schenn’s blocks ...in particular his flamingo stance. I don’t recall ever seeing it though...lol

He did whip out the weird one-legged block a few times in his first season here, but I think he was firmly and perhaps impolitely told to stop.

 

[Lindberg]

I'm curious to hear deadhead's response to A Mac almost bagging another own goal in the second game of the season.

 

[deadhead]

You mean MacDonald playing as well as any defenseman tonight? With three big clears on the Sanheim screwup 4 minute penalty?
I know, he not only should have ridden his man out of the play, he should have been able to stop a perfect pass.

I watched Sanheim have a horrible game, Konecny have a putrid first period, even Provorov make a couple bad turnovers, but I know no one will mention any of that, because when a favorite screws up, "it's just one of those things." Like Voracek totally blowing a prime scoring chance by passing through a crowd instead of shooting from 10 feet away.

MacDonald isn't a great player, but he was one of the best players on the ice tonight. Like it or not.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

I thought Andy played well last night. I hope he can do it for 80 more games.

 

[Beef Invictus]

No. He wasn't.

 

[Appleyard]

I mean, he was not bad last night...

he was not good either though.

 

[tymed]

Ghost and Provy were again leagues above the other 4 guys.

Andy Mac was fine. It was actually Sanheim who cost us the game winner last night.

 

[tucson83]

You mean MacDonald playing as well as any defenseman tonight? With three big clears on the Sanheim screwup 4 minute penalty?
I know, he not only should have ridden his man out of the play, he should have been able to stop a perfect pass.

I watched Sanheim have a horrible game, Konecny have a putrid first period, even Provorov make a couple bad turnovers, but I know no one will mention any of that, because when a favorite screws up, "it's just one of those things." Like Voracek totally blowing a prime scoring chance by passing through a crowd instead of shooting from 10 feet away.

MacDonald isn't a great player, but he was one of the best players on the ice tonight. Like it or not.

the difference between maconald and sanheim, is that sanheim is a rookie, he's going to make mistakes and macdonald is expensive vet that's making the same mistakes,
difference is sanheim can learn from his mistakes and macdonald wont.

 

[deadhead]

The Farmer isn't the problem right now, the problem is when you play a bunch of young players, you have to live with growing pains, and that's why Hakstol isn't rushing them all into the lineup.
Sanheim will be a good defenseman down the road, but he looked like a deer in the headlights last night.
Hagg has actually held his own, but he hasn't stood out, but as a rookie, you're happy NOT to notice him.
Patrick is overmatched right now, he needs both to get his legs under him and to react quicker to what's happening around him, but hey, he's 19 years old.

Morin will probably play Saturday night.
Over the next few months, either one goes down or they rotate in for increased minutes and Manning gets moved or phased out.

MacDonald is what he is, a limited but functional veteran defenseman, even apart from the salary he's better than Streit, MDZ, Schultz and Manning.
He'll be phased out next year as Hagg, Sanheim and Morin take regular slots and Myers and Friedman push for jobs.

 

[Tripod]

You don't understand context or the point of Rated or Expected metrics. At all. It's actually stunning how many ways this methodology is flawed. This might be your masterpiece.

Even if we toss out the improvement in Provorov from the beginning of the year to the end (which would be insane), you're starting with the premise that it would make sense to examine Provorov's numbers away from MacDonald and ignore the rest. You've taken a sample size of ~540 minutes and attempted to use it to prove a point while ignoring a sample size of ~850 for....well I have no idea why.

You've also stunningly managed to ignore ice time completely. Of MacDonald's 10 minute+ 5v5 pairings over the same 2 year sample size, only AMac-Gudas for 80 minutes and AMac-Streit for 30 have a lower GA/60 than AMac-Provorov, with the latter being a virtual tie. To be clear, of the 5v5 minutes MacDonald has played in the last 2 years away from Provorov, ~128 minutes were spent at a lower raw GA/60 while ~730 were at a higher rate.

Then there's the part where you forget defense partners exist. Away from each other, Provorov spent ~369 minutes with Brandon Manning and Mark Streit's embalmed corpse. When paired with an NHL defenseman, albeit only in ~170 minutes, every single GA/60 was better away from MacDonald. That's not enough sample size to draw on to make any sort of conclusion, but it's in line with the backwards thinking you started with, so hey, when in Rome. Meanwhile, ~600 of MacDonald's minutes away from Provorov came with Gostisbehere. Next most common were Gudas for 80 and MDZ for 60.

What happens when you compare GA/60 rates with common partners? Let's stick to 20 minutes or more in an attempt to not be completely out to lunch. Format is Partner: Provorov / AMac.

Gostisbehere: 1.25 / 1.97
MDZ: 1.94 / 2.89
Gudas: 1.57 / 1.49
Manning: 2.39 / 2.89
Streit: 3.35 / 1.93

So what those numbers are actually telling you is that Provorov/Streit got bombed early in the year. That's it. Context. To take it a step further, I'll give you one guess what happens to those Streit numbers if you take out the Chicago game. Sample sizes are fun.

This bothers me because it's the type of throw crap at the wall attempt at analysis that gives analytics a bad name. At least care enough to understand what the numbers you're quoting are attempting to explain and what they are not. Don't just open up a hockey-ref tab and vomit out nonsense.

Deadhead must have missed this response to him so I thought I would bump it for his viewing.

 

[deadhead]

What happens when you compare GA/60 rates with common partners? Let's stick to 20 minutes or more in an attempt to not be completely out to lunch. Format is Partner: Provorov / AMac.

Gostisbehere: 1.25 / 1.97
MDZ: 1.94 / 2.89
Gudas: 1.57 / 1.49
Manning: 2.39 / 2.89
Streit: 3.35 / 1.93

So what those numbers are actually telling you is that Provorov/Streit got bombed early in the year. That's it. Context. To take it a step further, I'll give you one guess what happens to those Streit numbers if you take out the Chicago game. Sample sizes are fun.

So what you're really saying is MacDonald is fine except when partnered with someone really bad defensively like MDZ and Manning? Which is exactly what you'd expect with a 3rd pair talent, he can't raise a marginal player but he can pair with a decent player.

Of course context matters, since Ghost is rarely used in tough defensive situations, the Provorov/Ghost combo is probably when the team is behind and the other team is content just to get the puck out of their D-zone, which explains the low GA number - that pairing was usually used to try and generate offense when trailing in the 3rd period.

 

[Lindberg]

You've got to give it to Hagg. He was incredibly underrated on here. Plays the unnoticeable game (which I think is great for a player like him).

 

[KrazyKat]

You've got to give it to Hagg. He was incredibly underrated on here. Plays the unnoticeable game (which I think is great for a player like him).

He has looked steady, but i would prefer he was paired with Provorov. And MacD with Ghost

 

[Hockeypete49]

You mean MacDonald playing as well as any defenseman tonight? With three big clears on the Sanheim screwup 4 minute penalty?
I know, he not only should have ridden his man out of the play, he should have been able to stop a perfect pass.

I watched Sanheim have a horrible game, Konecny have a putrid first period, even Provorov make a couple bad turnovers, but I know no one will mention any of that, because when a favorite screws up, "it's just one of those things." Like Voracek totally blowing a prime scoring chance by passing through a crowd instead of shooting from 10 feet away.

MacDonald isn't a great player, but he was one of the best players on the ice tonight. Like it or not.

I forced myself to watch the game this morning and I have to agree with you about Amac. But I watched Sanheim's play and for me there were a few plays where he was caught flatfooted and he did not assert his self. If Hextall is going to allow that then Sam Morin needs to dress. He clearly is what this team needs. I was impressed with Hagg's game, for the most part he played under control.
Send Sanheim back to LV and let him grow and learn. Here are my players on defense Hexy!!
MacDonald-Provorov
Ghostisbehere-Morin
Gudas-Hagg
Manning

 

[JojoTheWhale]

So what you're really saying is MacDonald is fine except when partnered with someone really bad defensively like MDZ and Manning? Which is exactly what you'd expect with a 3rd pair talent, he can't raise a marginal player but he can pair with a decent player.

Of course context matters, since Ghost is rarely used in tough defensive situations, the Provorov/Ghost combo is probably when the team is behind and the other team is content just to get the puck out of their D-zone, which explains the low GA number - that pairing was usually used to try and generate offense when trailing in the 3rd period.

No, what I'm really saying is exactly what I said -- you draw conclusions from numbers without thinking about the machinations of what is being measured and how.

As for the rest of this, you might as well have said Pluto used to be a planet. They're equally germane to my objection. We were talking about you using GA to say Provorov can't be carrying MacDonald. You're an intelligent person and I don't believe for a second you don't know this. There's no point in looking up usage or anything else because the argument will just change again.

I was a bit harsh in my phrasing and I do apologize for it.

 

[Lindberg]

He has looked steady, but i would prefer he was paired with Provorov. And MacD with Ghost

Now that is KRAZY! Ghost should not be paired with MacD.

 

[TCTC]

He has looked steady, but i would prefer he was paired with Provorov. And MacD with Ghost

I wouldn't. Provorov seems to like playing with MacDonald and Ghost's playing well right now with Hagg. No reason to change those pairs.

 

[BritainStix]

You've got to give it to Hagg. He was incredibly underrated on here. Plays the unnoticeable game (which I think is great for a player like him).

There were a few of us pumping his tyres and got absolutely ridiculed in the summer when we said he would start the season on the big team. He's clearly built for the NHL and not the AHL, where he was granted too much time to play with the puck.

 

[Lindberg]

There were a few of us pumping his tyres and got absolutely ridiculed in the summer when we said he would start the season on the big team. He's clearly built for the NHL and not the AHL, where he was granted too much time to play with the puck.

He's a great partner for Ghost. Plays a steady game and defers to Ghost to make plays. (I think Provorov would be a good partner for Ghost too, but what do I know?)