Doing some work to clean up the ultra-bad takes in the ADA thread. It's amazing that a large amount of the most vocal posters in there are saying that ADA needs to be a 40 point d-man this year or it's over for him. Does no one realize how many points 40 is for a d-man?
Last few seasons, the number of 40 point d-men, and the number of 40 point d-men who skated < 20 per game
17-18: 30 (3)
16-17: 23 (2)
15-16: 26 (2)
14-15: 27 (1)
It's amazing how scalding these takes can be so far removed from reality. How is a guy who is going to get, likely, 3rd pairing EV minutes and 2nd unit PP minutes, 40 points? It's basically an impossibility. And it's an utter-failure of humanity that we can't get people to move to rate stats. Really, what we should be looking for from ADA is outplaying his usage in terms of shot-attempts, and scoring at the rate of a 2nd pairing d-man. Last year, here were the rates for pairings.
[Data via Corsica.Hockey, 5v5 17-18 minimum 250 minutes]
Pairings are established by using TOI/gp percentiles (ie. top 33% of players are '1st pairing').
1st pairing: 0.85
2nd pairing: 0.77
3rd pairing: 0.68
ADA last year: 0.27
If he operated at a 0.77 p/60 pace, he'd have had 5.7 points (so 6) last year.
Again, really can't believe that rate metrics are still voodoo.