The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[silverfish]

Did anyone happen to bookmark that tool where you could click on an image of an NHL rink and it would give you the x,y coordinates? Feeling inspired after RITSAC yesterday to track NWHL games. Unfortunately, this is still a stupidly long intensive process for me. Worked for an hour this morning, and tracked half of a period

 

[Irishguy42]

Did anyone happen to bookmark that tool where you could click on an image of an NHL rink and it would give you the x,y coordinates? Feeling inspired after RITSAC yesterday to track NWHL games. Unfortunately, this is still a stupidly long intensive process for me. Worked for an hour this morning, and tracked half of a period

Prashanth Iyer was working on one, I believe. Tagged him on your tweet.

 

[silverfish]

Prashanth Iyer was working on one, I believe. Tagged him on your tweet.

THAT'S YOU!?

smashes follow button

Thx

 

[Harbour Dog]

Question: are defensemen that play their off-side generally better at zone entry defense?

Smith is an anecdotal case of course, but he is borderline elite in that regard; and it isn't hard to formulate a theory that being on your off-side allows for better protection of the middle of the ice with little sacrifice to being able to seal off the boards.

Curious if there have been evaluations of this done before?

 

[silverfish]

Question: are defensemen that play their off-side generally better at zone entry defense?

Smith is an anecdotal case of course, but he is borderline elite in that regard; and it isn't hard to formulate a theory that being on your off-side allows for better protection of the middle of the ice with little sacrifice to being able to seal off the boards.

Curious if there have been evaluations of this done before?

AFAIK it's only been done in relation to shot attempts

Quantifying The Importance of Handedness

 

[Machinehead]

AFAIK sounds like some Swedish soccer team

 

[Harbour Dog]

AFAIK it's only been done in relation to shot attempts

Quantifying The Importance of Handedness

Interesting read and an excellent analysis.

If he had provided the individual relCA and relCF along with the relCF%, then it would probably of been enough information to give me a reasonable answer.

 

[Machinehead]

I'm so sick of reading "OMG NO WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN WE PLAY THE ISLANDERS WITH ALL THEIR HEAVIES!!!"

They're going to put horrendous players on the ice and we're hopefully going to shoot their lights out? Sign me up.

 

[silverfish]

I'm so sick of reading "OMG NO WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN WE PLAY THE ISLANDERS WITH ALL THEIR HEAVIES!!!"

They're going to put horrendous players on the ice and we're hopefully going to shoot their lights out? Sign me up.

But we have McLeod. I don't understand why we're worried.

 

[Ori]

At least JT is gone - and that`s a huge loss for any Islanders fans. But I`m not too confident until I see how we perform in some training games before the season start vs Islanders.

 

[silverfish]

@Mac n Gs you brought up Nick Shore a while ago, right? Someone get this mans a PTO or a 1yr deal. That's your 4c right there. Shoots right handed. PKs.

[corsica.hockey]
1.12 p60
+3.82 relTCF%
+7.42 relTxGF% <- that's bonk city. 20th in the league this year among forwards with 500+ 5v5 mins.

 

[Mac n Gs]

@Mac n Gs you brought up Nick Shore a while ago, right? Someone get this mans a PTO or a 1yr deal. That's your 4c right there. Shoots right handed. PKs.

[corsica.hockey]
1.12 p60
+3.82 relTCF%
+7.42 relTxGF% <- that's bonk city. 20th in the league this year among forwards with 500+ 5v5 mins.

It took this long for someone to realize this? He’s the perfect insurance policy for one of the rookies not being ready to play full time in the NHL. He’s better than Nieves and Holland too.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Who’s a similar player to Nick Schmaltz, and how do we get him on our team?

 

[SA16]

Anyone that gets points and never shoots so...Alex Kerfoot/Val Filppula/David Desharnais

 

[Bob Richards]

I'm so sick of reading "OMG NO WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN WE PLAY THE ISLANDERS WITH ALL THEIR HEAVIES!!!"

They're going to put horrendous players on the ice and we're hopefully going to shoot their lights out? Sign me up.

"How are we going to play with all the tough guys on the Islanders?"

How are the Islanders going to play with all the tough guys on the Islanders?

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

It’s strange enough that there’s a team out there in 2018 that’s building their team like the Islanders are, but then you think about it for a little bit and realize there’s another one out west in the Canucks

 

[Blue Blooded]

@Mac n Gs you brought up Nick Shore a while ago, right? Someone get this mans a PTO or a 1yr deal. That's your 4c right there. Shoots right handed. PKs.

[corsica.hockey]
1.12 p60
+3.82 relTCF%
+7.42 relTxGF% <- that's bonk city. 20th in the league this year among forwards with 500+ 5v5 mins.

It took this long for someone to realize this? He’s the perfect insurance policy for one of the rookies not being ready to play full time in the NHL. He’s better than Nieves and Holland too.

I'm all for PTOing Shore, but I'm going to grab this opportunity to state that my prediction model HATES "elite 4th liners". That +7.42 relTxGF% impressed the model to such an extent that it rated Shore as a high-end 3rd liner in terms of projected RelxGF% (his projected scoring is still 4th line tier). It has always rated Marcus Krüger as a 4th line play driver and an AHL 4th-line scorer (literally league-worst proj. G60 in 3/6 seasons).

PTO and <$1M 1y contract? Yes.

3y $9.25M contract? Hard pass.

 

[Blue Blooded]

BTW, here is the full list of players from 2017-18 that got depth TOI% (Z-score < -0.25) and defensive deployment (ZSR Z-score < 0) and had an above average projected RelxGF%:

Vinnie Hinostroza (1.02)
Evan Rodrigues (0.88)
Miles Wood (0.77)
Jesse Puljujärvi (0.69)
Antoine Roussel (0.22)
Lars Eller (0.19)
Daniel Carr (0.11)
Jake Virtanen (0.09)
David Kampf (0.07)
Nick Cousins (0.07)
Andrew Copp (0.03)

Of these 11 players, only the top 4 had above average projected RelCF%.

 

[Blue Blooded]

BTW, a nifty projection comparison of three rookie offensive defencemen with similar deployment (DeAngelo was significantly less sheltered than the other two TBQH famalam). The model factors in age as well, if you're curious.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Also, is there any way we can bamboozle Carolina into giving us Brock McGinn? One slightly used Jimmy Vesey?

I know his Rel xGF% numbers are quite bad, but my projection model loves him and his individual shot rates are quite intriguing. His WOWY's suggests that his numbers may have been afflicted by a Victor Rash.

 

[Blue Blooded]

BTW, a nifty projection comparison of three rookie offensive defencemen with similar deployment (DeAngelo was significantly less sheltered than the other two TBQH famalam). The model factors in age as well, if you're curious.

FAKE NEWS!

That was back when the model relied on War On Ice data. Since I made the switch to Corsica data this has not been the case since they do not list age.

There have been so many iterations I keep forgetting what is in which.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Lumping Schmaltz in with guys like Filp and DD51 is a bit disingenuous and reductive. He’s a much better skater and playmaker than both of them, measured by passing quality and shot assist metrics, and his scoring is trending upwards. He wasn’t a volume shooter because he was always getting the puck to players that were like Kane, Hartman, and Saad. I hate that we don’t target players like him because his track record pre-draft suggested he’d be a good NHLer.

Also, is there any way we can bamboozle Carolina into giving us Brock McGinn? One slightly used Jimmy Vesey?

I know his Rel xGF% numbers are quite bad, but my projection model loves him and his individual shot rates are quite intriguing. His WOWY's suggests that his numbers may have been afflicted by a Victor Rash.

View attachment 134395

Weren’t the Rangers interested in him in the 2012 draft? I was surprised to see he was Carolina’s second highest volume shooter. I would’ve guessed Aho shot the puck more.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Lumping Schmaltz in with guys like Filp and DD51 is a bit disingenuous and reductive. He’s a much better skater and playmaker than both of them, measured by passing quality and shot assist metrics, and his scoring is trending upwards. He wasn’t a volume shooter because he was always getting the puck to players that were like Kane, Hartman, and Saad. I hate that we don’t target players like him because his track record pre-draft suggested he’d be a good NHLer.


Weren’t the Rangers interested in him in the 2012 draft? I was surprised to see he was Carolina’s second highest volume shooter. I would’ve guessed Aho shot the puck more.

God, I hope not. When I looked into his history I was baffled as to why you'd spend a mid-2nd on a guy who scored 21p in 39gp in the OHL. He ended up developing nicely, but I have a hard time justifying that pick.

 

[silverfish]

BTW, a nifty projection comparison of three rookie offensive defencemen with similar deployment (DeAngelo was significantly less sheltered than the other two TBQH famalam). The model factors in age as well, if you're curious.
View attachment 134369

While encouraging, boy do I hesitate to believe that ADA projects better than Sergachev.

BTW - if you want to re-add player ages, I scraped from Hockey-Reference because I needed it for MILLER.

https://docs.google. com/spreadsheets/d/1n8FVaVKpsZ-VCR-N7kjcIzhCS9-LDOat53_6f-nlB-M/edit?usp=sharing

[unbreak the link when you go to it. HF preview breaks it]

 

[Mac n Gs]

God, I hope not. When I looked into his history I was baffled as to why you'd spend a mid-2nd on a guy who scored 21p in 39gp in the OHL. He ended up developing nicely, but I have a hard time justifying that pick.

Just realized it was Brock Nelson, my bad.