The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:
- Thread starter Gardner McKay
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Bob Richards
Mr. Mojo Risin'
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
silverfish
got perma'd
Doing a random analysis to take a break from attempting to build the world's worst xG model... What the f*** happened in the game against the Flyers (4-7) loss on 2/18 this year? Every single goal scored in that game was a 5v5 goal. Most in the league this year.
Uh, shout out to imgur for linking to the most random album of all time? I had the post-game dump in here, but idk what happened. Carry on.
So random analysis was that a friend of mine had a theory that if the opposing team pulls their goalie, you should take a penalty for free shots at the empty net. This is obviously an imperfect analysis (no time on ice), but last year, there were 90 games that featured a 4v6 event, and 13 of them were goals. Comparatively, there were 938 games that featured a 5v6 event, and 322 of them were goals. So... don't take a penalty
Uh, shout out to imgur for linking to the most random album of all time? I had the post-game dump in here, but idk what happened. Carry on.
So random analysis was that a friend of mine had a theory that if the opposing team pulls their goalie, you should take a penalty for free shots at the empty net. This is obviously an imperfect analysis (no time on ice), but last year, there were 90 games that featured a 4v6 event, and 13 of them were goals. Comparatively, there were 938 games that featured a 5v6 event, and 322 of them were goals. So... don't take a penalty
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Mac n Gs
Gorton plz
- Jan 17, 2014
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I really wish there was better data available for the AHL. I was curious what Chytil, Andersson, and Pionk's shot rates would look like, and they all averaged 2+ shots per game. A quick, and not checked for errors, look at our team at all strengths show that that would be better than everyone on our team besides Nash, Mika, Hayes, Zucc, and Skjei.
Are there any other good AHL resources besides twitter play-by-play guys and buying AHL live games?
Are there any other good AHL resources besides twitter play-by-play guys and buying AHL live games?
Not really, it's almost impossible to get any real data from AHL. There's been some models done over the last 3 years, most notably by the old Habs analytics guy (lost the name now) who got fired/quit after the Subban trade (he was VERY against it).
silverfish
got perma'd
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
silverfish
got perma'd
Next season, we'll have better NWHL data than we do AHL data. At least in the public sphere... I hope.
This AHL thing though would be the most obvious competitive advantage for NHL teams to easily exploit, though. I'm assuming this data is somewhere, just not public.
This AHL thing though would be the most obvious competitive advantage for NHL teams to easily exploit, though. I'm assuming this data is somewhere, just not public.
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NYR94
Registered User
I don't know if it's a true "advanced stat", but what do you guys think about secondary assists? I read topics about them ever so often on the main board. I ask because Travis Yost did an article about them today and some former/current Rangers featured in two of his charts. Desharnais (ranked 2nd) and Spooner (ranked 7th) were high on the list for players with the highest % of secondary assists and Vesey ranked 5th on the list of players with the lowest secondary assist percentage.
https://www.tsn.ca/the-noise-surrounding-secondary-assists-1.1134501
https://www.tsn.ca/the-noise-surrounding-secondary-assists-1.1134501
East Coast Bias
Registered User
I started really looking at primary/secondary assists while doing a Kevin Hayes deep dive defense. I'm not sure what my absolute take is yet. I'm still playing around with it. But Hayes has some really crazy numbers. In his rookie season, he had 21 primary assists and 1 secondary. That's nuts.
In general, I'm still up in the air about it. I don't think it matters much for players who are stars and have the puck all the time, who put up points consistently year over year. It interests me more on more middle/bottom 6 guys. To see who is creating with their time.
To further the Spooner example. I filtered secondary A/60 (min 700 5v5 mins) and he's 5th behind McDavid, Giroux, Stamkos, and Barkov. I don't question any of those guys ability to put up points. But Spooner? Did he just benefit from some good line-mates this past season? his 1st vs 2nd A rates basically flipped for last season over the previous few. Just a small sample? I'd need more context for him
silverfish
got perma'd
*eyes emoji*
Remember when Kevin Hayes was always good but after his 'sophomore slump' people wanted him traded for nothing? I 'member.
DanielBrassard
It's all so tiresome
Mac n Gs
Gorton plz
- Jan 17, 2014
- 22,590
- 12,855
He was ass in his sophomore year and I’ll stick to it. The dude improved his game significantly this season, from both a fitness and play perspective.
silverfish
got perma'd
Positive shot attempt impacts, expected goals impacts, and goals impacts, and a 1.88 p/60 is ass?
East Coast Bias
Registered User
His 3rd season (16-17) was arguably his worst.
Worst possession numbers, worst scoring output. Bad all across the board.
His defensive starts doubled/60 that season. From o-zone guy, to d-zone guy in usage.
He rebounded nicely this past season. Leveled out, produced, and improved his numbers across the board.
Worst possession numbers, worst scoring output. Bad all across the board.
His defensive starts doubled/60 that season. From o-zone guy, to d-zone guy in usage.
He rebounded nicely this past season. Leveled out, produced, and improved his numbers across the board.
Mac n Gs
Gorton plz
- Jan 17, 2014
- 22,590
- 12,855
I am not a smart man. His third season is what drove me nuts, partially because of how good he was the year before.
Bob Richards
Mr. Mojo Risin'
Grabner- Hayes- Miller was super easy to find on a CF% rankings list because you just had to filter it from bottom up and the 3 would generally fit around the first page lel
silverfish
got perma'd
Kakko
Formerly Chytil
Yeah, but then you sort by GF% and they're suddenly on top
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Google is not our friend.
For a second I matched up Trotz/Washington and Quinn/Rangers and I thought "holy shit AV got hired by the Bruins!"
Mac n Gs
Gorton plz
- Jan 17, 2014
- 22,590
- 12,855
They both were bad, but Hayes made himself a more useful overall player while Miller still rides shooting% to his grave.
It’s a 180 and a flippant move on my part, but I’m glad we stuck with Hayes.
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