The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[YoSoyLalo]

Manny continues to build on his draft/prospect model and i'm loving it.



Chytil just outside top 15.

Andersson at 8, Mittelstadt nowhere to be seen.

That makes me [REDACTED].

 

[Ola]

Manny continues to build on his draft/prospect model and i'm loving it.



Chytil just outside top 15.

Is the WJC included in these models?

It’s small sample size, but I do think that ultimately it’s a good teller. I would try to work it in and put a lot of weight into it.

It seems like I often see these projections/evaluations but they don’t seem to include the WJC.

 

[Doctyl]

All players...or just some?

Cause it seems to me like this FO hits more often than not. Or at least more than 50%.

But I agree that when this office is "wrong" they are usuallyvery wrong.

We shouldn’t know our FO missed before the season starts. If the dude hasn’t played a game on his new contract yet and you know is an abhorrent signing, that’s a big issue with the front office.

 

[Doctyl]

In my opinion, more often than not I find myself disagreeing with the way this FO goes about who they are deciding to keep and who they decide to trade and who they decide to target.

But that's me. I am not a GM.

Micah is destroying McLeod on Twitter right now. It hurts.

Signing McCleod makes room to trade Hayes now

 

[Leetch3]

Manny continues to build on his draft/prospect model and i'm loving it.



Chytil just outside top 15.

those stats must be wrong. I was told anderson isn't any good or a blue chipper

 

[Irishguy42]

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Most of Darling's history suggests that he's better than an average goalie. It's a somewhat small sample size for a goalie, but even if you run some Bayesian analysis, I'm sure you can find where his true career sv% lies.

Good goalies have bad years. It happens. It's the great and elite goalies that don't. That's part of what makes Hank generational and arguably (I mean, he is, but I'll say arguably for whatever sake) the best goalie of the post-lockout generation. Because of that consistency.

Goaltenders can be strong as backups and tend to falter when given the starter’s workload. A goaltender can conceivably be an elite backup (which Darling absolutely was over a large sample size), but they can also be a goaltender who simply cannot handle the workload of a starter and will be the worst starter in the NHL when given that workload.

It’s part of the reason why Buffalo isn’t going to do well with Carter Hutton in net if they expect him to play 60+ games and play at the level he played at for 32 this year.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

anyone know of an easy way to see more than top 10 scorers on a year by year basis?

NHL Yearly Top 10 Leaders and Records for Points | Hockey-Reference.com

or like a player page that has his point finish year by year?

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Is the WJC included in these models?

It’s small sample size, but I do think that ultimately it’s a good teller. I would try to work it in and put a lot of weight into it.

It seems like I often see these projections/evaluations but they don’t seem to include the WJC.

I don't think it is but i'm not 100%, you'd have to ask Manny... I agree that we should try to work international play into it but i think it's difficult… I disagree that it should be weighed heavier, strongly disagree with that.

 

[Irishguy42]

I asked Manny but haven't gotten a response.

I think it's safe to say "no" though, purely because it IS a small sample size. And it seems like a lot of Manny's model is using data from a single season in a single league.

It's probably reeeeeeeeeeeeeally hard to equate WJC performance as compared to points performance from different leagues, if not impossible.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Manny uses plenty of Leagues, that's not the problem... problem is if it's possible to get enough data to make an NHLe for WJC, i Think it would be tough given it's international play.

 

[Irishguy42]

Manny uses plenty of Leagues, that's not the problem... problem is if it's possible to get enough data to make an NHLe for WJC, i Think it would be tough given it's international play.

This is more or less what I was trying to say

 

[silverfish]

Some really promising stuff re: Lias from Manny. Good to see.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Some really promising stuff re: Lias from Manny. Good to see.

I haven't dove into what he's been doing regarding the draft model stuff yet. Is he using only their D-2 through draft year numbers, or has he added in D+1 numbers for the 17 draftees?

I wonder how much Lias and Chytil's projections would shift since they produced in the SHL/AHL? I'd guess that the production in both leagues would only boost Lias' projections.

 

[silverfish]

Friendly reminder that John Gilmour was in no way shape or form as bad as people here like to say he was last year.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Friendly reminder that John Gilmour was in no way shape or form as bad as people here like to say he was last year.

Was he even bad?

He looked like a bottom pairing defenseman to me, and his numbers back that up.

 

[Bob Richards]

I am already EXTREMELY unexcited for the Pionk vs Gilmour debate that I am certain is encroaching upon the upcoming season lmao

 

[silverfish]

I am already EXTREMELY unexcited for the Pionk vs Gilmour debate that I am certain is encroaching upon the upcoming season lmao

I don't think Gilmour makes the team, speaking honestly. Think he'll start the season in Hartford and then be involved in one of those random trades mid-year where we trade him to a team that he might have a shot at making. Like we did with Graves.

But this guy showed last year that he's likely a 5 or 6 D. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I don't think Gilmour makes the team, speaking honestly. Think he'll start the season in Hartford and then be involved in one of those random trades mid-year where we trade him to a team that he might have a shot at making. Like we did with Graves.

But this guy showed last year that he's likely a 5 or 6 D. Nothing wrong with that.

He suffered from eyetestitis where his few gaffes were burned into everyone’s retinas. I agree that he did well in his sheltered role, which is always useful to have in a depth dmen, and his skating is a huge plus for transition offense and defense.

 

[Ola]

I don't think it is but i'm not 100%, you'd have to ask Manny... I agree that we should try to work international play into it but i think it's difficult… I disagree that it should be weighed heavier, strongly disagree with that.

My gut feeling is just that WJC scoring translates well to NHL scoring, especially since all the non top kids playing mens hockey scores at such a marginal rate. Don’t really need to weight anything, just make it reflect the probability,

 

[silverfish]

My gut feeling is just that WJC scoring translates well to NHL scoring, especially since all the non top kids playing mens hockey scores at such a marginal rate. Don’t really need to weight anything, just make it reflect the probability,

Your gut feeling is that a max 7 game sample size better reflects prospects than a full season? Where in this sample some of those games they can beat up on really bad teams?

I think your gut is wrong.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

My gut feeling is just that WJC scoring translates well to NHL scoring, especially since all the non top kids playing mens hockey scores at such a marginal rate. Don’t really need to weight anything, just make it reflect the probability,

I strongly disagree with this… Look at Collberg/Friberg for example… Scored for fun at the WJC, played in Mens League, were not great players/prospects

Bigger samples are better and international play in general in team sports is weird because you don't have time to train systems and tactics so i don't trust international play.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

I don't think Gilmour makes the team, speaking honestly. Think he'll start the season in Hartford and then be involved in one of those random trades mid-year where we trade him to a team that he might have a shot at making. Like we did with Graves.

But this guy showed last year that he's likely a 5 or 6 D. Nothing wrong with that.

Isn't Gilmour waiver exempt? I Think he starts in Hartford then gets brought up whenever we get injuries or make a trade or something and then he sticks.

 

[Ola]

I strongly disagree with this… Look at Collberg/Friberg for example… Scored for fun at the WJC, played in Mens League, were not great players/prospects

Bigger samples are better and international play in general in team sports is weird because you don't have time to train systems and tactics so i don't trust international play.

Cheechoo scored close to 60 in the NHL, and we still look at NHL stats right?

Further, I strongly disagree that Friberg and Collberg scored at will in the WJC. Friberg had a 42% shooting percentage in 2012, does that sound sustainable to you?

So many junior scorers ‘drown’ in the WJC, they obviously aren’t good enough. One big advantage is sorting them out.

Lastly, your last argument is interesting and a good one. I am sure you are right, in some cases. But in other cases it works the other way. Players are able to break away from restraints on their club team. Less tactics, more room for individual skill. Less time to learn to depend on a teammate. I wouldn’t want to venture to guess which ‘case’ has the upper hand. My instinct say the one I pointed at — but that could be due to the fact that I’ve seen so many players break out in international hockey, while unconsciously filtering out the players who obviously just got boosted stats for whatever reason.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

I'm all for finding a way to add WJC into models like Mannys but i think it's really difficult to get a "true" NHLe value from international play and the small sample size is a pretty big issue...