The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[Blue Blooded]

Had to break radio silence since no one picked up on this; set the year to "2016-2017", look at the top-5 and smile.

Manny's model had Lias as the #1 OA in the 2017 draft (#4 prospect outside the NHL) and DeAngelo as the #2 prospect behind Sergachyov.

I've been especially annoyed with the unpersoning of DeAngelo from the Ranger stats guys since his acquisition. I guess if there isn't anything to criticize outside of his PDO they rather just ignore him altogether.

His metrics were very good last year despite playing mostly with Smith and O'Gara AV refusing to play him on the PP even after Shattenkirk went down. I still stand firm in my belief that he has 1D potential. His O'Gara CF% Rel. WOWY is especially egregious; with ROG (76 min): -0.35, ADA without ROG (76 min): +5.88, ROG without ADA (67 min): -12.97. SSS and all that, but still.

 

[silverfish]

Had to break radio silence since no one picked up on this; set the year to "2016-2017", look at the top-5 and smile.

Manny's model had Lias as the #1 OA in the 2017 draft (#4 prospect outside the NHL) and DeAngelo as the #2 prospect behind Sergachyov.

I've been especially annoyed with the unpersoning of DeAngelo from the Ranger stats guys since his acquisition. I guess if there isn't anything to criticize outside of his PDO they rather just ignore him altogether.

His metrics were very good last year despite playing mostly with Smith and O'Gara AV refusing to play him on the PP even after Shattenkirk went down. I still stand firm in my belief that he has 1D potential. His O'Gara CF% Rel. WOWY is especially egregious; with ROG (76 min): -0.35, ADA without ROG (76 min): +5.88, ROG without ADA (67 min): -12.97. SSS and all that, but still.

Please post more.

I don't necessarily think it's the stats guys that are unpersoning ADA, though. I mean, I can admit I have some bias against him because he was involved in the Stepan trade and I'm still salty af about that. I don't think he has 1D potential, but I do believe he certainly is an NHL d-man, if he puts it all together. I think he'll be one of those dynamite sheltered 3rd pairing guys. We'll see if he gets the PP time he needs to put up points, though.

Those splits from O'Gara are interesting, though. From what I remember, towards the end of the season, O'Gara really started putting it together (well, at least not totally sucking), and ADA was injured then, playing mostly with Skjei and Gilmour.

 

[Guyute]

Anyone know where I could find a player's season total plus and season total minus statistics? I'm not interested in the regular +/- number.

 

[silverfish]

Anyone know where I could find a player's season total plus and season total minus statistics? I'm not interested in the regular +/- number.

Basically every stats website will have a players GF and GA. I'd lean towards corsica.hockey but that's just because I use it the most.

 

[Guyute]

Basically every stats website will have a players GF and GA. I'd lean towards corsica.hockey but that's just because I use it the most.

Awesome - thanks man!!

 

[East Coast Bias]

Awesome - thanks man!!

You can use NaturalStatTrick too

 

[silverfish]

Awesome - thanks man!!

I also wouldn't really recommend trying to glean any real insight from using GF and GA. What are you trying to do or looking to find?

 

[silverfish]

I was told there was no way Vesey's AAV would be more than $2m. Huh.

Jimbo Vesey, last two years:

-2.69 relCF%
-3.65 relxGF%
-7.93 relGF%
1.28 p60

Kid is a bad third-liner, through and through. Would not have re-signed. Would have traded to a dumb team.

lmfao, you guys, how many times did I say this year that Miller and Vesey would combine for a $7.5m AAV? Off by 25K and got shit on constantly for saying that. God damn. Vindication.

 

[Harbour Dog]

I was told there was no way Vesey's AAV would be more than $2m. Huh.

Jimbo Vesey, last two years:

-2.69 relCF%
-3.65 relxGF%
-7.93 relGF%
1.28 p60

Kid is a bad third-liner, through and through. Would not have re-signed. Would have traded to a dumb team.

Meh, I don't like what Vesey has brought, but this signing is fine.

We can't entirely gut the roster, and if anything, when he is on pace for 15-20 goals again at the TDL, some team will pay better for him then than they would of for his rights in the offseason.

If he is still here in a couple years, he will most likely just be fodder for our young guys to surpass.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

He was always going to be re-signed, there was no chance he was going to be traded

He is what he is, a bottom 6 player.

In two years he'll probably go elsewhere, and that's fine

 

[Machinehead]

I am already EXTREMELY unexcited for the Pionk vs Gilmour debate that I am certain is encroaching upon the upcoming season lmao

We've already lost that debate because everyone has just decided we've lost that debate.

 

[silverfish]

Hypothesis: Jimmy Vesey's only utility is 10 feet or less from the opposition net.

Analysis:

Okay. Last season, Jimmy Vesey had 32 unblocked shot attempts from within 10 feet or less. 8 of them ended up being goals. I'm actually shocked that only 8 of Vesey's goals were from within 10ft. That's a 25% FSh%

181 players had at least 20 unblocked attempts from 10 feet or less. Vesey's 25% FSh% is 35th among this sample. This is all situations, btw.

Top-5 FSh% in the league:

Marleau: 10/21
Malkin: 13/30
Wild Bill: 12/28
Keller: 8/21
Grabner: 9/24

Top-5 by total Fenwicks:

E. Kane: 13/81
McDavid: 12/71
Gallagher: 14/66
Tkachuk: 9/65
Lee: 19/60

Holy moly Anders. How many of these attempts are going bye bye when JT leaves?

Conclusion: Jimmy Vesey is better than average at finishing Fenwicks from 10ft from the net. I'm now curious that only 8 of Vesey's goals were from this distance, so here is a density plot for distance for Vesey's 17 goals last year:

So Vesey has 8 goals 10 feet or less. His other 9 are:

128, 13, 12, 12, 21, 11, 21, 150, 17.

Ah f*** me, this should've been a blog post. Oh well.

lmfao. JT Miller had 22 unblocked attempts with the Rangers last year from 10ft or less and scored on one of them. What an ass.

I blogged it and made two more visualizations:

For context, Buchnevich also took 32 attempts from 10ft or less and scored on 6 of them.

Really love how the Vesey thread is arguing about exactly this. If only we had a way to quantify things instead of just spewing constant shit.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Hypothesis: Jimmy Vesey's only utility is 10 feet or less from the opposition net.

Analysis: (incoming, need some time).

Was about to post in his resigning thread “Good in the slot, poor everywhere else”

He’s about as one-dimensional as you can get, he doesn’t create any offense besides finishing off slot chances and he’s poor in transition and on defense. I actually also think he’d be decent to good in the high slot on the powerplay but literately no where else on the powerplay.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

He can score goals.

But he needs to score more if he’s gonna have positive value. ~15 goals isn’t enough to justify the other parts of his game (or lack there of). He needs to get closer to ~25, and his ice time needs to be carefully managed.

Hopefully his production rises and we use him as a sweetener is a big deadline deal.

 

[Bob Richards]

He can score goals.

But he needs to score more if he’s gonna have positive value. ~15 goals isn’t enough to justify the other parts of his game (or lack there of). He needs to get closer to ~25, and his ice time needs to be carefully managed.

Hopefully his production rises and we use him as a sweetener is a big deadline deal.

And he's had some good ass line mates and some spoon fed ice time in his career too and he's still averages as a < 30 point player.

Inefficient scoring, bad defense, bad possession guy. I feel like he'd be less bad if we played him like the 4th liner that he probably is.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

If it were me, I would have Slimbo Jimbo play on the 4th line and bump him up to the 3rd when injury hits

That said, it seems as though they want him to prove he is a top 6 player, so I would expect him to be given top 6 or at least middle 6 minutes pretty regularly.

Fortunately for him, there aren't a ton of winger prospects that can force him out of the lineup this year (at least at first glance). Maybe Meskanen or Lindqvist can make some noise but I don't see them as top 6 guys

 

[Doctyl]

At what point does “he’s overpaid but it’s just 2 years so it’s not a problem” become a problem?

 

[silverfish]

At what point does “he’s overpaid but it’s just 2 years so it’s not a problem” become a problem?

"We're not trying to compete, so who cares?"

 

[Matt4776]

At what point does “he’s overpaid but it’s just 2 years so it’s not a problem” become a problem?

When we have to trade some of those players for sub-optimal returns (or even forcing us to add to have someone take a team) because Karlsson reaches FA.

 

[Leetch3]

At what point does “he’s overpaid but it’s just 2 years so it’s not a problem” become a problem?

when the cap hit for year 2 creates a problem re-signing someone more important

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

At what point does “he’s overpaid but it’s just 2 years so it’s not a problem” become a problem?

When it becomes a problem.

Right now, it isn’t and I don’t foresee anyway that it will be one by the time his contract runs out.

Look at our cap sheet, it’s pretty good.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

At what point does “he’s overpaid but it’s just 2 years so it’s not a problem” become a problem?

When it becomes a problem.

Right now, it isn’t and I don’t foresee anyway that it will be one by the time his contract runs out.

Look at our cap sheet, it’s pretty good.

 

[SA16]

At what point does “he’s overpaid but it’s just 2 years so it’s not a problem” become a problem?

At roughly the same point as "We shouldn't sign Karlsson or Panarin or any free agent ever because we're not ready to win yet"

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

At roughly the same point as "We shouldn't sign Karlsson or Panarin or any free agent ever because we're not ready to win yet"

No one has said this.

 

[Doctyl]

No one has said this.

Yes they have