The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[silverfish]

Lou is hockeyman. Trust hockeyman.

 

[Irishguy42]

Lou is hockeyman. Trust hockeyman.

I mean, I don't know if he's just being Ignorant Hockeyman (TM) or trying to say that you can't let stats dictate your moves 100% of the time, which is fine.

But then again, Lou is a dinosaur, sooooooooooooooo...Ignorant Hockeyman it is.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Lou is hockeyman. Trust hockeyman.

I didn’t think he’d be better than Snow, but man is he having a terrible first few months on the job

 

[silverfish]

New York Rangers key statistics

The Rangers have three defensemen who could score 40 points this season. Kevin Shattenkirk, who has at least 43 points in six of his eight NHL seasons, was limited to 46 games because of season-ending knee surgery Jan. 22 and finished with 23 points (five goals, 18 assists). Rookie Neal Pionk had 14 points (one goal, 13 assists) in 28 games, which projects to 41 points in 82 games. Brady Skjei, who had 39 points (five goals, 34 assists) in 80 games as a rookie in 2016-17, had 25 points (four goals, 21 assists) in 82 games.

I don't envy Rob Vollman right now, being tasked with coming up with some key statistics for each team, but if Neal Pionk ever records 40 points in an NHL season, I'll shit my pants.

 

[Mac n Gs]

New York Rangers key statistics



I don't envy Rob Vollman right now, being tasked with coming up with some key statistics for each team, but if Neal Pionk ever records 40 points in an NHL season, I'll **** my pants.

If anything is gonna show how poorly our defense helped drive offense last season, just look to Pionk being 2nd on the team in primary assists at 5v5.

 

[silverfish]

If anything is gonna show how poorly our defense helped drive offense last season, just look to Pionk being 2nd on the team in primary assists at 5v5.

I think I'd chalk that up more to the quantity of D that had to play for this team last year considering injuries and selling and Smith. Twelve different d-men played over 200 mins 5v5 for this team last year. My guess is that no other team comes close to that number.

e: BUF had 11

 

[Blue Blooded]

LOL at Pionk or Skjei scoring 40+, just not going to happen unless Quinn royally screws up PP deployment. There were ten defencemen in the league that scored 30 or more ES points last year.

Pionk is hopefully 3rd on the PP depth chart among defencemen, which may be parlayed into a shooting role on the PP2 if neither of Lettieri/Meskanen are in the lineup. Skjei shouldn't see any PP time at all if we have a healthy roster.

 

[silverfish]

LOL at Pionk or Skjei scoring 40+, just not going to happen unless Quinn royally screws up PP deployment. There were ten defencemen in the league that scored 30 or more ES points last year.

Pionk is hopefully 3rd on the PP depth chart among defencemen, which may be parlayed into a shooting role on the PP2 if neither of Lettieri/Meskanen are in the lineup. Skjei shouldn't see any PP time at all if we have a healthy roster.

Was the same ish in the ADA thread. "He needs to put up 40 points this year or it's over for him".

 

[Mac n Gs]

What the f*** kinda nonsense was that Athletic WAR article? It’s absolutely abysmal and Manny posted some captions highlighting some its bad arguments.

 

[silverfish]

What the **** kinda nonsense was that Athletic WAR article? It’s absolutely abysmal and Manny posted some captions highlighting some its bad arguments.

They got a roundtable of three people to discuss WAR that haven't built a WAR model, and two of whom clearly don't understand what goes into WAR models and hockey Twitter has been reacting as you'd expect. Which is totally warranted. Manny brought up a good point about The Athletic being, really, a very vocal part of sports journalism now, and it's irresponsible that they're disseminating bad information and it's no wonder that hockey analytics sucks on the mainstream. Let me see if I can find the tweet....



Also enjoyed @ManUtdTobbe taking a dump on Mirtle

 

[Irishguy42]

Dellow sucks.

 

[silverfish]

Dellow sucks.

He really does. But he worked for a team so obviously he knows all.

As the days go by, I find more and more that appeal to authority is the worst thing about humans.

 

[Mac n Gs]

They got a roundtable of three people to discuss WAR that haven't built a WAR model, and two of whom clearly don't understand what goes into WAR models and hockey Twitter has been reacting as you'd expect. Which is totally warranted. Manny brought up a good point about The Athletic being, really, a very vocal part of sports journalism now, and it's irresponsible that they're disseminating bad information and it's no wonder that hockey analytics sucks on the mainstream. Let me see if I can find the tweet....



Also enjoyed @ManUtdTobbe taking a dump on Mirtle

That's just pitiful journalism and it's a shame that they didn't even invite some of these guys to promote this segment.

Hockey analytics just needs to log off for the week. Adam Herman trying to spin Tokarski's LDSv% as some form of positive for what may be a terrible defense was just a really, really weird thread to read.

 

[silverfish]

That's just pitiful journalism and it's a shame that they didn't even invite some of these guys to promote this segment.

Hockey analytics just needs to log off for the week. Adam Herman trying to spin Tokarski's LDSv% as some form of positive for what may be a terrible defense was just a really, really weird thread to read.

Yeah, I don't know what the f*** that was, either.

Dog days. Instead of bitching on Twitter, everyone should just track a NWHL game so we have last year's data and I don't have to do all of it

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

They got a roundtable of three people to discuss WAR that haven't built a WAR model, and two of whom clearly don't understand what goes into WAR models and hockey Twitter has been reacting as you'd expect. Which is totally warranted. Manny brought up a good point about The Athletic being, really, a very vocal part of sports journalism now, and it's irresponsible that they're disseminating bad information and it's no wonder that hockey analytics sucks on the mainstream. Let me see if I can find the tweet....



Also enjoyed @ManUtdTobbe taking a dump on Mirtle

It was a good dump

Dellow is a delicate flower, he searches himself on Twitter to find accounts to block

 

[silverfish]

jfc. So happy I never subscribed to this shit.

 

[Irishguy42]

Mirtle isn't a dumb guy, but he's so dense like...95% of the time.

 

[Mac n Gs]

It’s pretty amazing how they’re either completely missing the point or just don’t care why people are getting annoyed.

His response to Tobbe about none of the guys discussing war never even developing a WAR model was basically, “Yeah, so? What’s your point?”

 

[silverfish]

It’s pretty amazing how they’re either completely missing the point or just don’t care why people are getting annoyed.

His response to Tobbe about none of the guys discussing war never even developing a WAR model was basically, “Yeah, so? What’s your point?”

I've been tweeting and deleting tweets all morning. But this whole thing is basically like... imagine writing a think-piece on global warming being fake because you've seen snow before. And then a bunch of scientists respond to your article saying that you're wrong. And you get mad at the scientists.

That's what this is.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I've been tweeting and deleting tweets all morning. But this whole thing is basically like... imagine writing a think-piece on global warming being fake because you've seen snow before. And then a bunch of scientists respond to your article saying that you're wrong. And you get mad at the scientists.

That's what this is.

That AND Pronman actually thinks the Habs have a top-8 farm system. Been a brutal week for the Athletic.

 

[silverfish]

Honestly, it just sort of seems like people are falling behind and instead of working hard to keep up, are ****ting on anything new. I mean, at least it's WAR models and not shot attempts or rate metrics like it is on HF

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

That AND Pronman actually thinks the Habs have a top-8 farm system. Been a brutal week for the Athletic.

Every time I have a vague thought of subscribing, they pour me a giant cup of reasons not to

 

[silverfish]

Mirtle muted me because I can't control myself. I really need a burner account considering that one is tied to actual work I do .

Just log off, man, log off.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Every time I have a vague thought of subscribing, they pour me a giant cup of reasons not to

Their coverage of other sports is pretty damn good. Their hockey coverage is usually much better than what they’ve out out recently.

 

[SA16]

Why is it that it is unacceptable for a reporter to write an article giving his opinion on WAR or some sort of statistics without consulting hockey stat guys but it's acceptable for a reporter to write an article giving his opinion on a game without consulting people who played the game?

The articles weren't very good but the real problem is that many people involved in hockey analytics are just super defensive and abrasive. It's less of an issue in baseball (outside of a couple of people) where discussion seems to triumph over all the nonsense. The presentation of data needs to improve dramatically for things to actually catch on.

The Bourne article, in particular, was clearly written stating that it was the opinion of "one current NHL Analyst." One guy. It doesn't make anything he said a fact or not. It's just that one guys opinion and Bourne was sharing it with everyone.