The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[silverfish]

I don't subscribe, I haven't read the articles. I don't think anyone took issue with the Bourne piece, I think it was the Dellow hot taeks in the original one.

 

[SA16]

Honestly Dellow really didn't even have any hot takes. All he said was he doesn't think the data provided by the NHL is good enough presently to build a great model and that he thinks it would be very useful if it were possible. And it got blown out of proportion presumably because he said he thinks the current models have tons of issues. And again it was clearly presented as the opinion of one person and not facts.

 

[silverfish]

Honestly Dellow really didn't even have any hot takes. All he said was he doesn't think the data provided by the NHL is good enough presently to build a great model and that he thinks it would be very useful if it were possible. And it got blown out of proportion presumably because he said he thinks the current models have tons of issues. And again it was clearly presented as the opinion of one person and not facts.

Right, that's fine. I think the builders themselves are upset because they had no input, and feel like they had answers for some of the criticisms.

 

[SA16]

Really, I don't think there was a need for them to be included. The point of the articles were to discuss the concept of WAR in general and how it relates to hockey. Not how to build a model or to understand all the inputs that go into it. If the article was "How to build a WAR model" then of course someone who has done it should be included. You don't need to understand all the details of how it's done to discuss it. You just need an understanding of what WAR is and what it's trying to do.

If they want to respond to criticisms or correct any inaccuracies by all means they should go ahead and write their own article to do so but I do think it's important to note this is an article from The Athletic written by employees of The Athletic - none of which are the people who have built a WAR model. It's not an article on Corsica which obviously would (as does) express things very differently.

As I mentioned originally if we're going to go with the "You haven't created a model so you can't discuss it" we logically also should be taking the same argument for "You haven't played in the NHL so you can't discuss it." (or anything along those lines) and that argument is seen as flawed and appeal to authority.

 

[silverfish]

But does Dellow get it?

 

[Irishguy42]

But does Dellow get it?

If "it" is "anything to do with cycling" then probably.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Mirtle muted me because I can't control myself. I really need a burner account considering that one is tied to actual work I do .

Just log off, man, log off.

If you get a burner account remember to DM me on Twitter so i can follow, want to see the real hot takes.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Why is it that it is unacceptable for a reporter to write an article giving his opinion on WAR or some sort of statistics without consulting hockey stat guys but it's acceptable for a reporter to write an article giving his opinion on a game without consulting people who played the game?

The articles weren't very good but the real problem is that many people involved in hockey analytics are just super defensive and abrasive. It's less of an issue in baseball (outside of a couple of people) where discussion seems to triumph over all the nonsense. The presentation of data needs to improve dramatically for things to actually catch on.

The Bourne article, in particular, was clearly written stating that it was the opinion of "one current NHL Analyst." One guy. It doesn't make anything he said a fact or not. It's just that one guys opinion and Bourne was sharing it with everyone.

The issue for me is that they make a panel where the baseline is that they're critiquing WAR models and work others do without having a single representative for "WAR model builders" to explain and defend the work done. It was basically a 3-way shitfest on WAR and WAR model builders.

 

[silverfish]

If you get a burner account remember to DM me on Twitter so i can follow, want to see the real hot takes.

My burner account would get banned from Twitter

 

[Mac n Gs]

With these win projection models coming out lately, does anyone know if they're using last year's rate stats in their models? I wonder what our projections would look like if they factored in roughly league average shot share and xGF% numbers.

 

[silverfish]

With these win projection models coming out lately, does anyone know if they're using last year's rate stats in their models? I wonder what our projections would look like if they factored in roughly league average shot share and xGF% numbers.

I'm sure there are write-ups somewhere, but this is the sort of thing that goes so far over my head and makes me realize how far behind I am, so I try to avoid it

 

[Mac n Gs]

I'm sure there are write-ups somewhere, but this is the sort of thing that goes so far over my head and makes me realize how far behind I am, so I try to avoid it

Manny’s seems like it’s heavily influenced by players, which would make sense since we have a lot of question marks and poor depth.

It’s more of a curiosity about how different our projections would be with more league-average stats rather than the worst in the league

When Hakstol started in Philly, they saw marginal improvements in their underlying metrics, while maintaining similar shooting and save% for HDC F/A and HDG F/A. It’ll be really hard for Quinn to have us playing worse than we did last season, even with similar injuries.

 

[Irishguy42]

Manny also said his factors scheduling a lot.

 

[Irishguy42]

When Hakstol started in Philly, they saw marginal improvements in their underlying metrics, while maintaining similar shooting and save% for HDC F/A and HDG F/A. It’ll be really hard for Quinn to have us playing worse than we did last season, even with similar injuries.

Depends on how much the players buy into his system during the first year.

 

[SA16]

I can't see how scheduling, outside of rest, can make much of a difference considering every team in the same division plays essentially an identical schedule. Obviously the sequencing of it matters due to rest factors but pure strength of schedule within division is the same.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I think it was shown that we actually have one of the easier schedules (based on games played after a day of rest and minimal back-to-backs) anyways this year.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I can't see how scheduling, outside of rest, can make much of a difference considering every team in the same division plays essentially an identical schedule. Obviously the sequencing of it matters due to rest factors but pure strength of schedule within division is the same.

SOS varies interdivisionally though. No way you can convince me that TB, BOS and TOR didn't have inflated point totals (and underlying metrics) due to the absolute joke of a division the Atlantic was in 17-18.

 

[SA16]

SOS varies interdivisionally though. No way you can convince me that TB, BOS and TOR didn't have inflated point totals (and underlying metrics) due to the absolute joke of a division the Atlantic was in 17-18.

Between divisions, for sure, but within divisions it's nearly identical which is what matters most since that is mainly who you compete against for a playoff spot. Either way even the "between divisions" is not nearly as unbalanced as it is in the MLB where almost 50% of a teams games are within their division.

I think it was shown that we actually have one of the easier schedules (based on games played after a day of rest and minimal back-to-backs) anyways this year.

I feel like the Rangers get this every year. At least the last few I've seen they're always among the least back to backs.

 

[silverfish]

I feel like the Rangers get this every year. At least the last few I've seen they're always among the least back to backs.

Feel the same way. I think we also get an added benefit about being in the vicinity of so many other teams. Teams come to town, they hit NJD/NYI/NYR. I think Micah did the work on this in past seasons, not sure if he's released it yet, but there are times where we catch teams in the 2nd half of their b2b stint after playing one of the other local teams.

But I think my favorite thing about B2B games is the color commentary. If the team playing their 2nd game in two nights comes out hot, they're ready to go because they just played. If they come out flat, it's because they're tired from playing last night. That's a classic.

 

[SA16]

Feel the same way. I think we also get an added benefit about being in the vicinity of so many other teams. Teams come to town, they hit NJD/NYI/NYR. I think Micah did the work on this in past seasons, not sure if he's released it yet, but there are times where we catch teams in the 2nd half of their b2b stint after playing one of the other local teams.

But I think my favorite thing about B2B games is the color commentary. If the team playing their 2nd game in two nights comes out hot, they're ready to go because they just played. If they come out flat, it's because they're tired from playing last night. That's a classic.

And if they get off to a good start and end up losing they were worn down from all the skating.

 

[silverfish]

This one is better:

 

[Mac n Gs]

This one is better:

I know character got turned into a meme, but the “character” guys they acquired via the draft or trades are statstically good players. The only one that’s an obvious plug is McLeod, and I doubt he beats anyone out for a consistent 4th line job.

 

[silverfish]

I know character got turned into a meme, but the “character” guys they acquired via the draft or trades are statstically good players. The only one that’s an obvious plug is McLeod, and I doubt he beats anyone out for a consistent 4th line job.

Targeting character isn't an issue. Targeting character at the expense of skill is.

But honestly, I have so many issues with the way this team is run, I should just keep my mouth shut.

 

[Irishguy42]

Targeting character isn't an issue. Targeting character at the expense of skill is.

But honestly, I have so many issues with the way this team is run, I should just keep my mouth shut.

A lot of people, not just on HFNYR, have trouble separating those two from each other and don't realize that bloggers/advanced stats folk/etc. are almost always talking about the latter.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Targeting character isn't an issue. Targeting character at the expense of skill is.

But honestly, I have so many issues with the way this team is run, I should just keep my mouth shut.

Agreed, and if you wanted, I’d go case-by-case on players you had issues with (who we’ve acquired recently) and see what the alternatives could have been.

We got nothing else to do until camp starts