Blue Jays Discussion: The 3B hero the Blue Jays need: Drury hits walk-off HR! (oh and some kid played too)

[Leafs at Knight]

Will Biggio get the call up this season? Those numbers are crazy albeit small sample

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Question for the draftniks: Let's say high school pitcher Matt Allan is the best guy on the board at pick 11 (Fangraphs rates him a 45FV). Do you take him, or pull a Groshans and take a guy ranked a little lower (say Quinn Priester ranked 22 but also a 45FV) to save 1M+ and put it towards our second or third round pick like we did with Kloffenstein?

I think there's legit separation between Allan and the other high school arms beyond the pure FV but given the volatility of the prospect type is it better to spread out the risk?

So the hypothetical option would be:

Allan + 2nd round talent
Priester/Goss/?? + 1st round talent

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

So I know he's repeating Lansing, and he's now 22, but Reggie Pruitt has been pretty impressive early on. He was drafted as a very raw elite athlete (6.58 run + 93mph arm). Could the tools finally be turning into skills?

.329/.366/.434 1 homerun, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 5 stolen bases in 18 games.

Reggie Pruitt is a 2015 OF with a 6-1 168 lb. frame from Kennesaw, GA who attends Kennesaw Mountain HS.

Long and slender greyhound body. 6.58 runner, game speed plays way up from that defensively and on the bases. Excellent range in centerfield, can run down the ball in the gaps, easy gliding actions, very good arm strength when he gets his feet set and directional, very good carry, impact defensive tools. Right handed hitter, fast twitch hands, tends to be late getting the barrel started, loose extended swing, can shorten his swing for more consistent contact, projects to keep improving offensively with additional strength. Advanced base runner with lots of aggressiveness. Good student, verbal commitment to Vanderbilt.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Will Biggio get the call up this season? Those numbers are crazy albeit small sample

More than likely yes.

Meanwhile, in Lansing, Lopez is scuffling a little bit but Groshans (3-5, HR) and Kirk (2-4, 2B, HR, BB) continue to absolutely demolish A-ball pitching.

Kirk's up to 75 PA with an OPS over 1.000. 6 doubles, 3 HR, 14 BB... and 4 (FOUR!) Ks. That's ludicrous.

Kirk is a little Astudillo in him...and I'm here for it.

 

[Eyedea]

Question for the draftniks: Let's say high school pitcher Matt Allan is the best guy on the board at pick 11 (Fangraphs rates him a 45FV). Do you take him, or pull a Groshans and take a guy ranked a little lower (say Quinn Priester ranked 22 but also a 45FV) to save 1M+ and put it towards our second or third round pick like we did with Kloffenstein?

I think there's legit separation between Allan and the other high school arms beyond the pure FV but given the volatility of the prospect type is it better to spread out the risk?

So the hypothetical option would be:

Allan + 2nd round talent
Priester/Goss/?? + 1st round talent

Question is do I go HS pitching? Idk how the board is shaping up but I think I’d still be on the bat train

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Question is do I go HS pitching? Idk how the board is shaping up but I think I’d still be on the bat train

I'm definitely on the bat train as well. I look at the Cubs and Astros model as one to emulate since there's less injury risk and volatility with elite hitters and you can trade hitting for proven pitching later.

I'm speaking more generally since I see more parity in the arms ranked 11-35 than in the bats. Conversely, I don't yet see a comparable hitting talent in the 25-30 range that would persuade me to pass up on the guys at our slot.

The top current players on my board (who might realistically be there) from each demo:

College Hitter: Josh Jung (later ranked alternative -> Shea Langeliers)
College Pitcher: Alek Manoah (later ranked alternative -> George Kirby)
HS Hitter: Corbin Carroll (later ranked alternative -> Jerrion Ealy)
HS Pitcher: Matthew Allen (later ranked alternative -> JJ Goss)

 

[metafour]

Question for the draftniks: Let's say high school pitcher Matt Allan is the best guy on the board at pick 11 (Fangraphs rates him a 45FV)

I mean, under what scenario is Matt Allen the BPA at #11? Fangraphs has him 15th.

 

[canucksfan]

Vladdy is up Friday as per Montoyo's press conference.

 

[Woodman19]

Vladdy is up Friday as per Montoyo's press conference.

Just saw that. A new era begins.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Vladdy is up Friday as per Montoyo's press conference.

Bring Biggio with you Vlad.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I mean, under what scenario is Matt Allen the BPA at #11? Fangraphs has him 15th.

1) "Let's say..." indicates a hypothetical.

2) BA has him ranked 11th. The difference between 11th and 14th on fangraphs is like a quarter of a grade (45+FV vs 45FV)

So yeah, I'm more comfortable with my hypothetical than your absolute proposition that under no scenario could he be BPA.

 

[phillipmike]

I'm definitely on the bat train as well. I look at the Cubs and Astros model as one to emulate since there's less injury risk and volatility with elite hitters and you can trade hitting for proven pitching later.

I'm speaking more generally since I see more parity in the arms ranked 11-35 than in the bats. Conversely, I don't yet see a comparable hitting talent in the 25-30 range that would persuade me to pass up on the guys at our slot.

The top current players on my board (who might realistically be there) from each demo:

College Hitter: Josh Jung (later ranked alternative -> Shea Langeliers)
College Pitcher: Alek Manoah (later ranked alternative -> George Kirby)
HS Hitter: Corbin Carroll (later ranked alternative -> Jerrion Ealy)
HS Pitcher: Matthew Allen (later ranked alternative -> JJ Goss)

I like Jung and Shea Langeliers. This FO drafted Shea Langeliers in 2016 in the 34th round.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Vladdy is up Friday as per Montoyo's press conference.

Exciting news. Hopefully the start of a long, successful career as a Blue Jay. Nearly four years of anticipation is now a mere couple days away.

 

[The Nemesis]

Bring Biggio with you Vlad.

That guy last week who was screaming to call up Biggio (and had Vlad as an afterthought) is going to be super disappointed.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I like Jung and Shea Langeliers. This FO drafted Shea Langeliers in 2016 in the 34th round.

Langeliers has been heating up the last few weeks. Hitting over .300 now and throwing out 70% of runners. If he took 1M+ less I would definitely consider him over Jung at 11 (despite our Pentecost disappointment at the same pick), though I like Jung's track record and floor. Not sure. That's why I'm asking. BPA or money strategy?

 

[Anthrax442]

Did the Jays sign that Cuban kid few weeks ago?

 

[dredeye]

Vladdy is up Friday as per Montoyo's press conference.

Ticket sales for Friday are going to shoot up fast now. May consider going myself

 

[canucksfan]

Ticket sales for Friday are going to shoot up fast now. May consider going myself

I live in BC but if I were close to Toronto I would go. You rarely get to see a prospect with this hype in his first game. Jays have never had a prospect like this.

 

[Deebo]

Never really understood the idea that he reps Toronto. He definitely panders, but to say he genuinely likes it is probably a stretch. He himself said liking Toronto is "unnatural"

He has a giant tattoo of the Toronto skyline across the front of his body, pretty far to go for pandering.

 

[canucksfan]

Meanwhile, in Lansing, Lopez is scuffling a little bit but Groshans (3-5, HR) and Kirk (2-4, 2B, HR, BB) continue to absolutely demolish A-ball pitching.

Kirk's up to 75 PA with an OPS over 1.000. 6 doubles, 3 HR, 14 BB... and 4 (FOUR!) Ks. That's ludicrous.

What's crazy about Kirk is since April 9th he has a k rate of 1.9% and a walk rate of 20.8%. He has three homers and has struck out once since then.

 

[metafour]

1) "Let's say..." indicates a hypothetical.

2) BA has him ranked 11th. The difference between 11th and 14th on fangraphs is like a quarter of a grade (45+FV vs 45FV)

So yeah, I'm more comfortable with my hypothetical than your absolute proposition that under no scenario could he be BPA.

LOL.

I'm just saying: the industry consensus has Allen somewhere in the 10-20 range...and closer to the middle of that (~15) than to 10.

I thought it was a weird question to ask about him specifically simply because it seems like a stretch to call him "BPA" at our pick.

 

[thehockeysong]

Langeliers has been heating up the last few weeks. Hitting over .300 now and throwing out 70% of runners. If he took 1M+ less I would definitely consider him over Jung at 11 (despite our Pentecost disappointment at the same pick), though I like Jung's track record and floor. Not sure. That's why I'm asking. BPA or money strategy?

Based on randomness of these prospects my initial gut would be to take the money strategy and diversify. Helps to eliminate the natural bias to fall in love with certain guys on the board. Having said that, I haven't actually looked back at previous drafts to base this opinion on data - just a hunch!

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

LOL.

I'm just saying: the industry consensus has Allen somewhere in the 10-20 range...and closer to the middle of that (~15) than to 10.

I thought it was a weird question to ask about him specifically simply because it seems like a stretch to call him "BPA" at our pick.

Who's the industry consensus? There's Fangraphs and BA (one has him there, the other not far off); MLB.com isn't updated, and Law I guess, but he's Craig Button-esque with his rankings.

Do I think he's likely to go top 10? No. He's currently the top high school pitcher available, but HS RHP tend to get pushed down boards and college hitters pushed up so that's a factor.

I used him simply for illustrative purposes cause as I've already said, there's less separation in pure talent between him and guys ranked in the 20-30 range, which makes it easier to construct a hypothetical scenario about saving pool money.

 

[Brown Dog]

Vladdy is up Friday as per Montoyo's press conference.

 

[Patmac40]

The MLB app has exploded with the hundreds of articles on Vlad they’ve been sitting on for a while. They must be excited over there. Almost as excited as I am.