Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part III

[henchman21]

Jack Campbell Stats and News

Since Jack Campbell keeps coming up in these conversations...

Also for every Pasta, there is a Bleackley.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I'll let the experts answer that. I don't know anything about Knight other then the fact hes supposed to be one of the better goalies of this draft. I will say it is risky to be drafting goalies high. For every John Gibson and Carey Price there is a Zach Fucale, Al Montoya, Jack Campbell, Brian Finley, Brent Krahn etc.

Hes supposed to be one of the best draft eligible goalies in years.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Hey guys, I did it!!! (First roll, not even joking)

I would do some very bad things to make this a reality. It would be a legendary draft in so many ways. Hughes, Kakko, Kaut and Makar join the Avs for their rookie seasons all at the same time? And we manage to keep them expansion exempt? Chills.

 

[UncleRisto]

Also for every Pasta, there is a Bleackley.

This noise is my response to reading that.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The only difference between goalies and skaters when it comes to drafting is that they take longer to develop into NHL level guys. When it comes to hit/miss rates they're still extremely similar and the higher the goalies get picked(IE the more skilled they are at young ages) the more likely they are to be successful.


I wouldn't even completely rule out Spencer Martin yet from being a bust entirely. His numbers in the AHL this year are starting to look more respectable and perhaps the 68 save shutout was exactly the confidence boost he needed to help himself get back on track.

 

[The Abusement Park]

The only difference between goalies and skaters when it comes to drafting is that they take longer to develop into NHL level guys. When it comes to hit/miss rates they're still extremely similar and the higher the goalies get picked(IE the more skilled they are at young ages) the more likely they are to be successful.

As Henchy said it’s just as risky to take a goalie as a forward, but when a goalie busts their completely useless unlike with some forwards they can at least play a depth role.

 

[VikingAv]

Jack Campbell Stats and News

Since Jack Campbell keeps coming up in these conversations...

Also for every Pasta, there is a Bleackley.

Oh, what coaching and development can do. Pretty sure a certain Cal Petersen is ok with his choice after college as well. And then there was undrafted Martin Jones. Jeebus, our organization frustrates me.

 

[S E P H]

I know he is older but the Avs needs to take a serious look at this guy Ilya Konovalov at eliteprospects.com.

We need help between the pipes

- Draft Spencer Knight between 11th to 15th overall.
- Draft Pyotr Kochetkov with one of our 3rd rounders.
- Sign Cale Morris to a ELC.

NHL: Grubauer and Francouz
AHL: Werner and AHL Veteran
ECHL: Cale Morris and ECHL Veteran

 

[McMetal]

I'm warming to the idea of Knight with our pick after watching what Carter Hart is doing for Philly. It's not out of the question that an athlete with Knight's raw talent could be ready for NHL action sooner than most goalies. I don't feel terribly confident about my ability to scout goalies but Knight is definitely exciting to watch and could easily be the BPA at our pick when all is said and done over a guy like Lavoie (who I also really like in that range).

 

[henchman21]

I'm warming to the idea of Knight with our pick after watching what Carter Hart is doing for Philly. It's not out of the question that an athlete with Knight's raw talent could be ready for NHL action sooner than most goalies. I don't feel terribly confident about my ability to scout goalies but Knight is definitely exciting to watch and could easily be the BPA at our pick when all is said and done over a guy like Lavoie (who I also really like in that range).

Some of the people I know in the stats community swear that goalies are over ripened and some of their best years are wasted by letting them sit in the AHL for a few years. The argument is they can be ready by 21-22 and should be hitting primes by 23-24. Don't know if I agree, but there are some stats that support it.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Some of the people I know in the stats community swear that goalies are over ripened and some of their best years are wasted by letting them sit in the AHL for a few years. The argument is they can be ready by 21-22 and should be hitting primes by 23-24. Don't know if I agree, but there are some stats that support it.

Not a chance I agree with this.

A goalie’s prime for me is 26-30, barring injuries.

Mentally ripened, body sustaining heavy amounts of annual starts, flexibility and reflexes haven’t slowed down yet.

Might be ready to make saves and start in the NHL before that, but not ready to hold a full season of stable performances and playoff grinds. Goalies simply need learning curves.

 

[S E P H]

Not a chance I agree with this.

A goalie’s prime for me is 26-30, barring injuries.

Mentally ripened, body sustaining heavy amounts of annual starts, flexibility and reflexes haven’t slowed down yet.

Might be ready to make saves and start in the NHL before that, but not ready to hold a full season of stable performances and playoff grinds. Goalies simply need learning curves.

Goaltending is also one position where you can play at an almost elite level when you're 35 as well.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Goaltending is also one position where you can play at an almost elite level when you're 35 as well.

Agreed, although injuries catch up.

Few goaltenders have groins, hips, and knees that aren’t somehow/somewhat banged up in their 30s.

 

[henchman21]

Not a chance I agree with this.

A goalie’s prime for me is 26-30, barring injuries.

Mentally ripened, body sustaining heavy amounts of annual starts, flexibility and reflexes haven’t slowed down yet.

Might be ready to make saves and start in the NHL before that, but not ready to hold a full season of stable performances and playoff grinds. Goalies simply need learning curves.

I'm not sure I agree with it either... there are numbers to back it up. Success like Hart is having is only going to push that thought more.

In a similar way it used to be thought that a skater's prime was 25-31... now we are seeing it is more 21-28 with peaks coming in the 22-24 range. The traditional aging curves either were wrong, or are being shifted (probably a bit of both). It wouldn't be unheard of to think that goalies need shifted down by a couple years too.

 

[McMetal]

Some of the people I know in the stats community swear that goalies are over ripened and some of their best years are wasted by letting them sit in the AHL for a few years. The argument is they can be ready by 21-22 and should be hitting primes by 23-24. Don't know if I agree, but there are some stats that support it.

Yeah... I can see the argument, but playing goalie is such a mental game, and I feel like experience trumps reflexes in most, if not every, case. IMO, you need that game experience to really get into the position and the demands of it at the highest level. There will be exceptions, but even Hart doesn't have much of a track record yet aside from a very promising NHL start. Knight MAY be one of those exceptions, but it's so tough to tell.

 

[S E P H]

Goaltending is also a position where some don't really have psychological issues, but tend to play down to competition. We saw with Shattenkirk that he was like pointless in the AHL, we bring him up and he set a record for rookie defenders I believe. Hart probably played bad in the AHL because he was lowered down by the competition and looks decent in the NHL because he knows he has to rise his game since it's the chel.

I know for me, I tend to play down when I am playing against a pick up game of beer leaguers compared to a pick up game of juniors.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'm not sure I agree with it either... there are numbers to back it up. Success like Hart is having is only going to push that thought more.

In a similar way it used to be thought that a skater's prime was 25-31... now we are seeing it is more 21-28 with peaks coming in the 22-24 range. The traditional aging curves either were wrong, or are being shifted (probably a bit of both). It wouldn't be unheard of to think that goalies need shifted down by a couple years too.

He’s been successful so far. Will it be different next season when teams have tape and a scouting report on him? That’s always the next step for every player. Now I think won’t be an issue for Hart as I think he’s gonna be a starter for a long time but still.

 

[AvsFan29]

Just watched Mackenzies mid season draft update. Zegras jumped up to the 9th spot.

He has 49 points this season, which is 6 behind Hughes.

Should we target him at 8-11 if we end up with Hughes? There's our second line.

I'm not sure how NHL ready Zegras is, but he has decent size to him 5'11"-6'0", but only at 160 right now.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Just watched Mackenzies mid season draft update. Zegras jumped up to the 9th spot.

He has 49 points this season, which is 6 behind Hughes.

Should we target him at 8-11 if we end up with Hughes? There's our second line.

I'm not sure how NHL ready Zegras is, but he has decent size to him 5'11"-6'0", but only at 160 right now.

I prefer Krebs to him but I'd be happy with him as well.

 

[Balthazar]

The only difference between goalies and skaters when it comes to drafting is that they take longer to develop into NHL level guys.

Even that part is blown out of proportion. The difference is not as big as people think it is if we compare them with other players drafted in the same range.

For example, skaters picked late in the 1st round (which is where guys like Oettinger get picked) often take 3-4-5 years to reach the NHL (if ever). Same with skaters vs goalies picked in the 2nd, 3rd...there's not a huge "NHL ready" age difference.

Only exception is elite skaters reach the NHL faster than elite goalies....but since you can't realistically count on drafting an elite skater past the top 10...in the end your elite goalie picked at #12 could really well reach the NHL at the same time as the middle 6er picked at #13.

 

[Pokecheque]

Yeah, a lot of analytics people say that the whole notion of defensemen taking longer to develop than forwards, etc., is largely myth. The big difference is, when a defender makes a mistake, it's much more glaring for obvious reasons. Double that (at least) for a young goaltender.

I'm not here saying they should throw 18-year-old netminders into the mix, but I think they can bring them in sooner than they have been.

 

[cgf]

Yeah, a lot of analytics people say that the whole notion of defensemen taking longer to develop than forwards, etc., is largely myth. The big difference is, when a defender makes a mistake, it's much more glaring for obvious reasons. Double that (at least) for a young goaltender.

I'm not here saying they should throw 18-year-old netminders into the mix, but I think they can bring them in sooner than they have been.

But is that just because their errors look worse or because you can get away with making more mistakes while playing Forward? If it’s the latter then forwards may take as long to reach their peaks, but you can get away with playing still-developing forwards more than still-developing goalies or blueliners.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Just watched Mackenzies mid season draft update. Zegras jumped up to the 9th spot.

He has 49 points this season, which is 6 behind Hughes.

Should we target him at 8-11 if we end up with Hughes? There's our second line.

I'm not sure how NHL ready Zegras is, but he has decent size to him 5'11"-6'0", but only at 160 right now.

That certainly doesn't scream decent size to me.... That's extremely small especially in his weight.


I'm not a size guy by any stretch of the imagination but if we do luck into Hughes at #1 I would rather target someone else with our own 1st if it's in the Top 10. I also would be an advocate for trading down just a touch. Since I am warming up to the idea of taking Spencer Knight but not in the Top 10. Move down to the ~15th range and snag Knight then while picking up another late 1st or early 2nd. If we get unlucky and Knight is gone just take the best available Defender which for me would probably be Cam York or Victor Soderstrom.

 

[AvsFan29]

That certainly doesn't scream decent size to me.... That's extremely small especially in his weight.


I'm not a size guy by any stretch of the imagination but if we do luck into Hughes at #1 I would rather target someone else with our own 1st if it's in the Top 10. I also would be an advocate for trading down just a touch. Since I am warming up to the idea of taking Spencer Knight but not in the Top 10. Move down to the ~15th range and snag Knight then while picking up another late 1st or early 2nd. If we get unlucky and Knight is gone just take the best available Defender which for me would probably be Cam York or Victor Soderstrom.

6 foot is a good size for today's NHL. He will obviously end up around 190-200 when he fills out. My only problem with him is the fact that he played with Hughes a lot, which might inflate his points. Also, when he was on a different line, the other team is obviously putting their top guys up against Hughes.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

6 foot is a good size for today's NHL. He will obviously end up around 190-200 when he fills out. My only problem with him is the fact that he played with Hughes a lot, which might inflate his points. Also, when he was on a different line, the other team is obviously putting their top guys up against Hughes.

You think he's going to put on 40 pounds?


That's.... Optimistic.