The top 10 is almost always pretty solid. Outside of a year like last year the top 10 stays in the top 10 except for a single reach. The order changes up a bit but 9/10 of top 10 consensus picks stay there.
At least basing it off MacKenzies list.
Last year was crazy and against the norm.
Last year was definitely a lot different then most years, for sure. You are also correct, most of the guys in the top 10 stay in the top 10 with maybe one guy falling.
Perhaps reach isnt the best word for it but I think teams have become better at identify the player they like and taking him. Good teams have an eye for talent and arent afraid to take a guy a couple spots higher then he is ranked.
In 2017 Elias Petterson was ranked 7th on Bob's list and Vancouver had no problem taking him a couple picks higher at 5.
In 2016 Colunbus took Dubois over Puljujarvi at 3 even though he was ranked 5.
In 2015 Marner went 4 even though he was ranked 6th.
Sure they arent huge reaches but I have my doubts that our scouts are doing their due diligence identifying talent.