Speculation: Tampa Bay's upcoming cap crunch

[Todd1a]

Unless his play falls off a cliff, getting him for Willy Nylander money is way, way too optimistic. Is anybody expecting him to score < a point per game right now? He sure looks like a ppg guy to me, and that's a guarded/conservative projection.

I think he'll take less money than his peers, but his peers are going to be the upper echelon of NHL talent.

I'm not sure he can keep up the ppg pace but him getting 70 to 75 point a year is is norm

 

[BAM]

Probably ends up getting Marner/Rantanen money - $9-10 million per year.

 

[DFC]

I'm not sure he can keep up the ppg pace but him getting 70 to 75 point a year is is norm

He looks like a better player than that to me. I think his goal scoring will drop off and his assists will come up as the year goes on.

 

[DFC]

It's funny how Tampa has the worst cap crunch by far and everybody is so "meh" about it. They literally are forced to make moves just to keep the core together, they have NTCs and NMCs coming out their rear, the main target to trade is a HORRIBLE contract... And even if they pull all of it off, they'll likely still lose half of their defense and some of their forwards and half of their team will have to be ELCs... and it doesn't address the performance bonuses they may have, or the meteoric raises coming to Sergachev and Vasilevsky in 1 more year... They are literally forced into multiple difficult moves just to ice a significantly downgraded team for 1 year, before it gets worse...

So many teams saying "Oh, but we'll just dump this huge salary player". Or multiple. And for "cheap" too. Has anybody actually looked at the cap situation around the league, and the contracts that are currently coming due for most teams? I can't find many that won't be maxed out after signing their own players, especially if this current RFA contract trend holds up. Where is all of this space coming from? Who is going to take a 5.8 million dollar sub 20-point 34-year old player with a NTC and NMC for peanuts? Or at all? There's no LTIR, and it's not exactly minimal in terms of actual salary too, which are things that matter for many of these teams that have historically taken on these type of contracts.

So many people claiming that their player will take a multi-million dollar per year discount per season because of a highly misunderstood "tax advantage" that doesn't really exist and doesn't influence much, and might save that player a couple hundred thousand when all is said and done. Even if we want to live in the magical disproven world where these players are saving millions playing in Tampa, Tampa and their fans clearly don't feel like they have any obligation to keep these players in Tampa after being given that discount, and after handing out NTCs and NMCs, and will move anybody out on a whim to sign the next one. What is the motivation to sign cheap when you don't even get that supposed tax advantage for the majority of your contract?

Also, while some of your past players may have been happy to sign a bridge, why is the so-called best player on your team going to do so when he's already having a career year that he's unlikely to top by any significant amount? Most importantly, why is such a good player going to risk his future earnings by signing a bridge after an explosive season, right before a lockout that could affect what type of future contract he could get. Especially when your team is handing out 6-7 year terms and NTCs like candy to people in the middle of the lineup. Why do you think so many kids are suddenly waiting out their ELC for their full potential to show, and wanting long term? Your other bridge deals didn't overlap a lockout, and you just had your own player that was in a similar situation to Point come out and say that he wish he had held out and NOT taken a bridge deal.

You're forgetting that we've been in this exact situation for five years, and the team keeps getting better. You also are ignoring how a lot of the stuff you say won't happen (like players taking discounts) is exactly what has happened in those five years. You're also forgetting that every single on of those 6-7 year deals were handed to players coming off, ahem, bridge deals.

Worst case scenario, we bring up more prospects than we'd intended. But our prospects are good.

It really is a "meh" situation. Other fanbases want to believe the sky is falling in TB because it probably feels unfair that we've been able to keep our cap more/less in order while signing three franchise players (so far) to team-friendly deals.

 

[82Ninety42011]

I would love JT Miller on Elias Pettersson's wing what would the ask be??

 

[Dekes For Days]

You're forgetting that we've been in this exact situation for five years, and the team keeps getting better. You also are ignoring how a lot of the stuff you say won't happen (like players taking discounts) is exactly what has happened in those five years.

Worst case scenario, we bring up more prospects than we'd intended. But our prospects are good.

It really is a "meh" situation. Other fanbases want to believe the sky is falling in TB because it probably feels unfair that we've been able to keep our cap more/less in order while signing three franchise players (so far) to team-friendly deals.

You signed complimentary players to bridge deals, while other complimentary players were getting bridge deals, which is much easier, and it wasn't right before a lockout that could change the future of contracts in the NHL, and it wasn't while RFA contracts league-wide were undergoing drastic inflation.

Now, you're dealing with a team full of worse players who have been given long-term deals laced with NTCs and NMCs, and while you're threatening to trade them at the beginning of their contracts, you're simultaneously asking the best player on your team who has already progressed to the point where many of these past players took bridges to get to, to ignore a career season and take a heavily discounted bridge deal and risk his financial future right before a lockout.

Stamkos didn't sign a bridge. Hedman didn't sign a bridge. Kucherov signed a bridge but has publicly stated that he regrets it, and Point is surpassing where Kucherov was at the time. These are the players that are similar to Point, not the Killorns of the world.

Yeah, if you sign a bunch of bridge deals, you can extend your window, which Tampa has, but when those bridge deals run out and you need to start signing them long term, which Tampa has, then you start running into a lot of trouble, like Tampa has. The whole "well, we've done it before" is a false argument, because literally everything about the situation is different than it was back when you had players sign bridges, and you're thinking it's okay based on a TON of assumptions that likely won't be correct.

As for "our prospects are good", I don't think you realize how many prospects deep we are talking, even in a best case scenario.

 

[CupsOverCash]

It is though.

1) Point isn't likely to sign any kind of 4 year deal. He'd either take a true bridge with a steep incline or a long term deal for more money.

2) Karlsson signing for 8.5 is pretty wishful thinking, even with an uneven performance in San Jose.

3) Why is Buffalo taking Callahan and giving up a better pick?

I meant for Point to get a shorter bridge. Dont know why I put 4 years. Id have him bridge until he is still a RFA. Agree on Karlsson being wishful thinking. If he really wanted to come (like it has been reported before) he would have to take a discount. Probably wouldnt take that big so its probably unlikely to happen. Still fun to try though. Buffalo was thinking Callahan would be a free vet who can give some leadership. Could always be turned to 4th.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I meant for Point to get a shorter bridge. Dont know why I put 4 years. Id have him bridge until he is still a RFA. Agree on Karlsson being wishful thinking. If he really wanted to come (like it has been reported before) he would have to take a discount. Probably wouldnt take that big so its probably unlikely to happen. Still fun to try though. Buffalo was thinking Callahan would be a free vet who can give some leadership. Could always be turned to 4th.

Buffalo has a ton of cap space, but 2/3rds of their dominant 1st line are UFA (and Skinner in particular is in line for a serious raise).

Don't see them taking Callahan for nothing, cap and real money still matters.

 

[Not My Tempo]

Kucherov could've had too, still signed the bridge. So did everyone else on this team.

Kucherov has also come out and said he wish he hadn’t taken the bridge:

“Kucherov wasn’t overly thrilled by Tampa Bay’s contract offers, but with little recourse, he accepted a three-year bridge deal worth $4.76 million annually.

“I just wanted to play,” Kucherov said. “I didn’t want to stay at home.”
But after watching Nylander, the 22-year-old Leafs star, hold out the first two months of the regular season, Kucherov understands that approach. Nylander faces a Dec. 1 deadline to sign or he’s not eligible to play the rest of the season.

Kucherov doesn’t blame Nylander at all. He supports him.

“I would have done the same thing,” Kucherov told The Athletic Monday before the Lightning’s game against the Predators.”

Nikita Kucherov on William Nylander’s contract dispute: 'I...

When your teammate is openly saying that, do you think Point is really wanting a bridge?

 

[CupsOverCash]

Buffalo has a ton of cap space, but 2/3rds of their dominant 1st line are UFA (and Skinner in particular is in line for a serious raise).

Don't see them taking Callahan for nothing, cap and real money still matters.

Its just for a year. Im not saying they would but he has value to a young team like Buffalo. Plus I think that is a place he would definitly waive to as he had interest signing there as UFA.

 

[DFC]

You signed complimentary players to bridge deals, while other complimentary players were getting bridge deals, which is much easier, and it wasn't right before a lockout that could change the future of contracts in the NHL, and it wasn't while RFA contracts league-wide were undergoing drastic inflation.

Now, you're dealing with a team full of worse players who have been given long-term deals laced with NTCs and NMCs, and while you're threatening to trade them at the beginning of their contracts, you're simultaneously asking the best player on your team who has already progressed to the point where many of these past players took bridges to get to, to ignore a career season and take a heavily discounted bridge deal and risk his financial future right before a lockout.

Stamkos didn't sign a bridge. Hedman didn't sign a bridge. Kucherov signed a bridge but has publicly stated that he regrets it, and Point is surpassing where Kucherov was at the time. These are the players that are similar to Point, not the Killorns of the world.

Yeah, if you sign a bunch of bridge deals, you can extend your window, which Tampa has, but when those bridge deals run out and you need to start signing them long term, which Tampa has, then you start running into a lot of trouble, like Tampa has. The whole "well, we've done it before" is a false argument, because literally everything about the situation is different than it was back when you had players sign bridges, and you're thinking it's okay based on a TON of assumptions that likely won't be correct.

As for "our prospects are good", I don't think you realize how many prospects deep we are talking, even in a best case scenario.

First, both Stamkos and Hedman both signed bridge deals.

Second, this really isn't a different problem than ones we've run into in the past. We need to sign a player (like, say, Kucherov, or Stamkos, or Hedman), and we find the money to do it. Meanwhile, we continually get better.

Losing a guy like JT Miller is not going to make a major dent in this team. Nor will losing Ondrej Palat if we have to. Nor will letting a couple of defensemen walk.

The one I'll give you is Stralman. If we have to give up Stralman, we could conceivably be a worse team for about a year or two, at which point Sergachev and Cernak should take up the slack.

And yeah, our prospects are good.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Kucherov has also come out and said he wish he hadn’t taken the bridge:

“Kucherov wasn’t overly thrilled by Tampa Bay’s contract offers, but with little recourse, he accepted a three-year bridge deal worth $4.76 million annually.

“I just wanted to play,” Kucherov said. “I didn’t want to stay at home.”
But after watching Nylander, the 22-year-old Leafs star, hold out the first two months of the regular season, Kucherov understands that approach. Nylander faces a Dec. 1 deadline to sign or he’s not eligible to play the rest of the season.

Kucherov doesn’t blame Nylander at all. He supports him.

“I would have done the same thing,” Kucherov told The Athletic Monday before the Lightning’s game against the Predators.”

Nikita Kucherov on William Nylander’s contract dispute: 'I...

When your teammate is openly saying that, do you think Point is really wanting a bridge?

Also, Kucherov signed his bridge deal after putting up Nylander like numbers. Point is already at another level.

 

[Cmac66]

Kucherov has also come out and said he wish he hadn’t taken the bridge:

“Kucherov wasn’t overly thrilled by Tampa Bay’s contract offers, but with little recourse, he accepted a three-year bridge deal worth $4.76 million annually.

“I just wanted to play,” Kucherov said. “I didn’t want to stay at home.”
But after watching Nylander, the 22-year-old Leafs star, hold out the first two months of the regular season, Kucherov understands that approach. Nylander faces a Dec. 1 deadline to sign or he’s not eligible to play the rest of the season.

Kucherov doesn’t blame Nylander at all. He supports him.

“I would have done the same thing,” Kucherov told The Athletic Monday before the Lightning’s game against the Predators.”

Nikita Kucherov on William Nylander’s contract dispute: 'I...

When your teammate is openly saying that, do you think Point is really wanting a bridge?

You could look it at both ways, If kucherov did not take that bridge deal would he have gotten the money which he is going to get from next season. I know the cap situation is different now compared to then which may have made a different case from both parties. I do not think that Point is going to be Bridged and he probably get something along the lines of 7.5 million.

 

[Tampacuseforever]

Stamkos and Hedman both signed bridge deals.

Different times than what is happening now. Bridges used to be always used, for a player like Point buying up RFA years will significantly lower the cap hit.

 

[DFC]

Also, Kucherov signed his bridge deal after putting up Nylander like numbers. Point is already at another level.

We're also going to be able to pay Point considerably more. This is why TB fans are very "meh" about this. Our cap crunch that year was way, way worse than this one. We literally ran out of money for Kucherov. But he did us a favor and took the deal. There's a far smaller chance we're going to run out of money this time. We have a lot of moveable pieces, and we have a history of moving contracts when we have to, one way or another.

We would have moved pieces for Kucherov if he'd forced the issue. Don't doubt that. Instead he signed and got himself to camp.

We'll have to move pieces for Point. But we have money coming off the books and replacements available.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Its just for a year. Im not saying they would but he has value to a young team like Buffalo. Plus I think that is a place he would definitly waive to as he had interest signing there as UFA.

You think he has value to Buffalo. Doesn't mean he does.

But Buffalo doesn't have a shortage of vets. They have Okposo, Sobotka and Berglund at forward. Pominville may re-sign. And that's ignoring the young wingers they have on the team or in the system.

If I'm Buffalo, I'm not considering Callahan at all.

 

[DFC]

You think he has value to Buffalo. Doesn't mean he does.

But Buffalo doesn't have a shortage of vets. They have Okposo, Sobotka and Berglund at forward. Pominville may re-sign. And that's ignoring the young wingers they have on the team or in the system.

If I'm Buffalo, I'm not considering Callahan at all.

Maybe they won't, but they should. Callahan was brought into TB as a vet who could set an example. His scoring touch dried up completely but he still sets that example, and young teams tend to go a lot further if they have a guy like that around. Hey, if they can allocate 5.8 to somebody who'll put up points, by all means, do that. But if somebody like that isn't available, taking a pick or prospect to let Ryan Callahan teach your team how to compete on a nightly basis isn't the worst option in the world.

I know Buffalo heated up for a second, but they don't strike me as a contender just yet. I think they'll be a 6-8 seed.

 

[Captain Mountain]

We're also going to be able to pay Point considerably more. This is why TB fans are very "meh" about this. Our cap crunch that year was way, way worse than this one. We literally ran out of money for Kucherov. But he did us a favor and took the deal. There's a far smaller chance we're going to run out of money this time. We have a lot of moveable pieces, and we have a history of moving contracts when we have to, one way or another.

Tampa has approximately under 10 mil free after accounting for 15 players and still need to sign Point and fill out the roster. Most of the guys that Tampa would be willing to move have NTC's and term. That's not easy for team's to deal with when Tampa can't really take cap going the other way (see: most trades that happened last offseason).

Most people don't think Tampa will actually lose Point, but its not going to be easy finding the space. This isn't like trading RFA's with pedigree or convincing players to sign for less.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Maybe they won't, but they should. Callahan was brought into TB as a vet who could set an example. His scoring touch dried up completely but he still sets that example, and young teams tend to go a lot further if they have a guy like that around. Hey, if they can allocate 5.8 to somebody who'll put up points, by all means, do that. But if somebody like that isn't available, taking a pick or prospect to let Ryan Callahan teach your team how to compete on a nightly basis isn't the worst option in the world.

I know Buffalo heated up for a second, but they don't strike me as a contender just yet. I think they'll be a 6-8 seed.

Buffalo HAS vets who can set an example. A lot of them in fact. There issues have nothing to do with lacking vets.

 

[DFC]

Tampa has approximately under 10 mil free after accounting for 15 players and still need to sign Point and fill out the roster. Most of the guys that Tampa would be willing to move have NTC's and term. That's not easy for team's to deal with when Tampa can't really take cap going the other way (see: most trades that happened last offseason).

Most people don't think Tampa will actually lose Point, but its not going to be easy finding the space. This isn't like trading RFA's with pedigree or convincing players to sign for less.

JT Miller (no NTC) and Ryan Callahan (16 teams) gives us 11m. We've moved bad contracts before. Callahan's is an easier move than Filppula's. If by some disaster we can't get a team to take him on, we buy him out. Coburn and Girardi free up another 6m, should we let them walk, and we have replacements ready on ELCs. One of those replacements, Erik Cernak, is currently filling in for Anton Stralman, a much bigger role than he'll be asked to take next year.

This is not a disaster scenario, no matter how hard people hope it might be.

 

[These Are The Days]

Unofficial statement from the Lightning front office on the incoming cap situation



We have been through a lot worse than this. We lost Filppula, Garrison, Namestnikov, Bishop and Drouin and got EVEN better

Literally all we have to do is trade Miller/Callahan and NOT tender Corbun/Girardi and we've got about $20 million in space to work with thanks to the cap going up

Then our top 6 in no order is

Johnson-Stamkos-Kucherov
Palat-Point-Gourde

Along with: Joseph, Killorn, Cirelli, Paquette and guys like Raddysh, Volkov, Katchouk, Barre-Boulet gunning for promotion

And our defense in no particular order is

Hedman-Stralman
McDonagh-Sergachev (assuming he's ready)
Cernak-Foote (assuming he's ready)

We're gonna be fine just fine folks....


And this is assuming we AREN'T trading for Martinez -who makes less than what we're already paying Stralman anyway. The cap going up alone covers $3.5 million of his $4 million salary AND he would probably be traded for Miller.

 

[FerrisRox]

Most people don't think Tampa will actually lose Point, but its not going to be easy finding the space. This isn't like trading RFA's with pedigree or convincing players to sign for less.

I think it will be very easy.

What helps Tampa is that they can move players that have actual value that will have multiple teams interested.

Players like Miller, Killorn, Johnson and Palat would have many suitors and Tampa would not not to eat contracts to relocate those guys. They can be moved with considerable ease.

Even Callahan, with one year left on his deal, shouldn't be hard to move. Packaged with a draft pick or a prospect I think he could easily be shipped out to a team looking for some help reaching the cap floor and also adding a valued veteran leader and former captain.

Tampa won't have any problem at all freeing up cap space.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

You're forgetting that we've been in this exact situation for five years, and the team keeps getting better. You also are ignoring how a lot of the stuff you say won't happen (like players taking discounts) is exactly what has happened in those five years. You're also forgetting that every single on of those 6-7 year deals were handed to players coming off, ahem, bridge deals.

Worst case scenario, we bring up more prospects than we'd intended. But our prospects are good.

It really is a "meh" situation. Other fanbases want to believe the sky is falling in TB because it probably feels unfair that we've been able to keep our cap more/less in order while signing three franchise players (so far) to team-friendly deals.

To sign Stamkos to even equivalent money, a team would spend 9.5-10M. That's a free 1M+ in cap space that they get over another place.
Ditto for Hedman (which this deal was fair, they paid Hedman before he really broke out for a good deal. But still. 9M in Florida = 10.5M in say Toronto.
The real kicker is Nikita Kucherov, who is just a fabulous team-centered guy. He took what Tampa could give him.

I mean, you are taking a LOT for granted if you assume guys will continue to take discounts. Kucherov is a team-first guy. It was AMAZING and UNIQUE that he took the deals he did. Hedman got signed before the 10M barrier was broken so 9M is a good and fair deal. Stamkos's one was the biggest example of the state tax affecting it. You were able to keep him and have more room because of a legislative advantage.

Also, Tampa lost the services of Steve Yzerman. I am sure dealing with Yzerman was another big part of why a guy like Kucherov or Hedman takes the "discount" deal they're offered. That they know Stevie is shooting them straight and if he says "we'll take care of you next time around or we will use this extra money to do something to get you a Cup" that he had mega-credibility. Does Briesbois have that same cache?

 

[Moosetache]

The Hurricanes should offer sheet him 5 years at 8.1 mil per....give up the 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks

 

[RegularSznAllStars]

The Hurricanes should offer sheet him 5 years at 8.1 mil per....give up the 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks

Bolts would find a way to match. Also, don’t know if Carolina should be throwing around offer sheets. They have quite a few young talented players...