Speculation: Tampa Bay's upcoming cap crunch

[AndreRoy]

I get that, but there's a difference between saying he'll take a bridge deal vs. having to pay him (from offer sheet threat or just his potential demands). Tampa has a cap crunch coming up if he's not taking an incredibly friendly bridge deal. And why should he?

Again, though, in an absolute worst case scenario we might lose a good complementary player who wasn’t on our roster when we made two deep playoff runs. We have a cap crunch, yes, but we’re far from cap hell. We might lose a finger or a toe but we aren’t getting a whole limb chopped off - we’ll be in good shape regardless of what happens with Point’s contract.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Everybody talks about the Jets and Leafs cap crunch, THIS is the team with the cap crunch, both the Jets and Leafs have 20+ million to work with, and that's before the cap goes up, and it will it always does.

Tampa has less than 10 and that's even after the cap goes up, Point is going to get most, possibly all that and he should but it does mean things will get tight

 

[Cmac66]

Everybody talks about the Jets and Leafs cap crunch, THIS is the team with the cap crunch, both the Jets and Leafs have 20+ million to work with, and that's before the cap goes up, and it will it always does.

Tampa has less than 10 and that's even after the cap goes up, Point is going to get most, possibly all that and he should but it does mean things will get tight

The amount of times people have moaned that we are in a cap crunch crisis is laughable. We have been fine before and I am sure we will be alright yet again. The perks of good drafting will never put us in a position we’re it is that bad.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Everybody talks about the Jets and Leafs cap crunch, THIS is the team with the cap crunch, both the Jets and Leafs have 20+ million to work with, and that's before the cap goes up, and it will it always does.

Tampa has less than 10 and that's even after the cap goes up, Point is going to get most, possibly all that and he should but it does mean things will get tight

The thing is, of all the cap-strapped teams, we have the most fat to shed. We have a steady schedule of NTC's relaxing over the next few years, and it's all to wingers. Guys like Callahan, Killorn, Miller, Palat, Johnson, Gourde will always be flexible to move should they become a lower priority. Guys like Joseph, Cirelli, Katchouk, Volkov, Stephens, Barre-Boulet are seemingly always available to step up to the next level when needed. We will never lose our core players during our window.

 

[Critical13]

The thing is, of all the cap-strapped teams, we have the most fat to shed. We have a steady schedule of NTC's relaxing over the next few years, and it's all to wingers. Guys like Callahan, Killorn, Miller, Palat, Johnson, Gourde will always be flexible to move should they become a lower priority. Guys like Joseph, Cirelli, Katchouk, Volkov, Stephens, Barre-Boulet are seemingly always available to step up to the next level when needed. We will never lose our core players during our window.

Tricky part about Tampa is that there is a crunch this year, and then another one next year when Serg and Vas come up.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Tricky part about Tampa is that there is a crunch this year, and then another one next year when Serg and Vas come up.

Vasilevskiy's will definitely be tough to deal with, Sergachev will be easier given how young he still is and his current role on the team. At that point I think about moving Palat, given his injury history and Joseph's emergence. Worst-case, we lose Johnson to Seattle or something. Off the top of my head I forget when Killorn's NTC relaxes.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The thing is, of all the cap-strapped teams, we have the most fat to shed. We have a steady schedule of NTC's relaxing over the next few years, and it's all to wingers. Guys like Callahan, Killorn, Miller, Palat, Johnson, Gourde will always be flexible to move should they become a lower priority. Guys like Joseph, Cirelli, Katchouk, Volkov, Stephens, Barre-Boulet are seemingly always available to step up to the next level when needed. We will never lose our core players during our window.

Do you really want to lose Gourde, Johnson, or Palat though?

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Do you really want to lose Gourde, Johnson, or Palat though?

Ideally, you keep everyone together as long as you can. Especially swiss army knife players like the ones you mentioned. But if there's anything I've learned from our injury woes over the years, losing one of them won't set-back the team a ton.

 

[Machinehead]

I refuse to believe it. The cap doesn't apply to them. Just look at the roster.

 

[God King Fudge]

Ah yes. This upcoming cap crunch Tampa Bay fans have been told about for years now.

 

[Just Linda]

So much they could do.

Girard, Coburn, and Stralman come off the books next year. That's 11.2 million. Girard probably signs for 1-2 million and replace the other 2 with Foote and a cheap signing.

Callahan comes off the year after.

Cap rises decent amount after that when Seattle joins the league.

I'm sure Brisebois isn't feeling too much pressure to get it all done.

Edit: can't forget that Bettman said today that the expected cap next year is 3.5m higher

 

[DFC]

Do you really want to lose Gourde, Johnson, or Palat though?

Meh. We could replace Palat in the 1st half. Maybe not the second half.

There are realities to the cap world. We won't get crazily worse by losing an Ondrej Palat, even if it does come to that (which it won't). We played over half this season without him.

 

[DFC]

So much they could do.

Girard, Coburn, and Stralman come off the books next year. That's 11.2 million. Girard probably signs for 1-2 million and replace the other 2 with Foote and a cheap signing.

Callahan comes off the year after.

Cap rises decent amount after that when Seattle joins the league.

I'm sure Brisebois isn't feeling too much pressure to get it all done.

Edit: can't forget that Bettman said today that the expected cap next year is 3.5m higher

We'll trade Callahan to a team close to NY with an incentive, but not a large one. We'll trade Miller to whoever offers us the best draft pack. That's 11m.

The BIG loss we might have to sustain is Stralman. I think we're going to try to figure out a way to keep him around, and then let Girardi and Coburn walk, replaced by Cernak and Koekkoek/prospect/cheap UFA.

 

[CupsOverCash]

We will lose players but we will be fine.

 

[Jumptheshark]

are we going to have these threads for all 31 teams?

Looking at the bolts situation--they have enough movable parts to keep the core players and the players that maybe getting a tab more money then they should--but are not as badly over paid as say Lucic

Their key signing will be Point and mu guess a guy like Johnson will be the one moved out to free up money or Callahan moved out to a team with a lot of cap space and liking draft picks

Do not see TB be as bad off as the leafs will be

 

[Kupo]

Sign Point to a bridge..

 

[DFC]

are we going to have these threads for all 31 teams?

Looking at the bolts situation--they have enough movable parts to keep the core players and the players that maybe getting a tab more money then they should--but are not as badly over paid as say Lucic

Their key signing will be Point and mu guess a guy like Johnson will be the one moved out to free up money or Callahan moved out to a team with a lot of cap space and liking draft picks

Do not see TB be as bad off as the leafs will be

Our only really bad contract right now is Callahan. Some of the term looks bad, but, in the here and now, just about everybody not named Callahan is playing up to their contracts, and then some. Even Alex Killorn. He's been very good this year.

I see us moving Miller before his NTC kicks in. If Ottawa would deal with us, which they won't, he could work well there. But I think it's more likely we move him for a late 1st, to a pretty good team looking to load up at the draft.

I'm really not worried about what happens at forward. The D will be a bit tricky, but Erik Cernak is giving us a lot of hope that we have at least one cheap replacement already. But I think a lot will depend on how team-friendly Anton Stralman wants to be.

 

[seanlinden]

One thing I've noticed with Tampa Bay -- and this may be one of the reasons they've been so consistently successful -- when it comes to 2nd contracts -- they go bridge deals.

When a team takes a 21-23 year old player, and locks him up for 7-8 years, that player knows his next contract being negotiated will be when he is older than the league average of 27 years old -- so he has to strike it big; meaning that teams pay for potential, and sign a deal that in years 1 & 2, they're bad deals... with the hope being that by years 3-4, they turn into good ones, and years 4+, great ones. Tampa has never really experienced a "setback", they're always letting their young players play for pennies on the dollar because they're on ELCs or short term RFA deals.

As a result, they've built some very successful teams, have a great culture, and combined with a great lifestyle, have had no concerns over the likes of Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, etc looking to pursue unrestricted free agency.

As a GM, the 6+ year deals are actually a bit counter-intuitive, as the super-long game may mean that you're gone before the team comes to fruiton.

With Yzerman gone, one has to wonder whether that trend will continue, although given their current salary structure, they may not have a choice but to sign Point to a 2 year bridge deal.

The question / challenge will be, based on the history of bridge deals, fair is probably in the neighborhood of $5m on a 2 year deal. These bridge deals are becoming less and less popular as we see more 20-22 year olds dominate. Agents and players want security -- Point knows he can go and get an offer sheet where somebody will sign him for 5 years at around $6.5 - $7m; and that would still leave a great 3rd contract on the table at 27-28. Is he prepared to buy into the Tampa approach, turn down $20+ million in guaranteed money, and get another 3 years of future contract to negotiate?

 

[DFC]

One thing I've noticed with Tampa Bay -- and this may be one of the reasons they've been so consistently successful -- when it comes to 2nd contracts -- they go bridge deals.

When a team takes a 21-23 year old player, and locks him up for 7-8 years, that player knows his next contract being negotiated will be when he is older than the league average of 27 years old -- so he has to strike it big; meaning that teams pay for potential, and sign a deal that in years 1 & 2, they're bad deals... with the hope being that by years 3-4, they turn into good ones, and years 4+, great ones. Tampa has never really experienced a "setback", they're always letting their young players play for pennies on the dollar because they're on ELCs or short term RFA deals.

As a result, they've built some very successful teams, have a great culture, and combined with a great lifestyle, have had no concerns over the likes of Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, etc looking to pursue unrestricted free agency.

As a GM, the 6+ year deals are actually a bit counter-intuitive, as the super-long game may mean that you're gone before the team comes to fruiton.

With Yzerman gone, one has to wonder whether that trend will continue, although given their current salary structure, they may not have a choice but to sign Point to a 2 year bridge deal.

The question / challenge will be, based on the history of bridge deals, fair is probably in the neighborhood of $5m on a 2 year deal. These bridge deals are becoming less and less popular as we see more 20-22 year olds dominate. Agents and players want security -- Point knows he can go and get an offer sheet where somebody will sign him for 5 years at around $6.5 - $7m; and that would still leave a great 3rd contract on the table at 27-28. Is he prepared to buy into the Tampa approach, turn down $20+ million in guaranteed money, and get another 3 years of future contract to negotiate?

Point would be an idiot to sign that offer sheet. TB would laugh, match, and brag about the best contract in the league.

 

[seanlinden]

Point would be an idiot to sign that offer sheet. TB would laugh, match, and brag about the best contract in the league.

I wouldn't necessarily say he'd be an idiot for doing so...

The reality is, I don't believe Tampa has handed out a 5+ year 2nd contract since Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, and that was 7 years ago before they became perpetually good. At every opportunity, they've given bridge deals.

Given their current cap structure, a bridge deal may be exactly what they want to do with Point. My point (no pun intended), is that it may not make much sense for Point to consider a bridge, in which case he can present the legitimate threat of an offer sheet, or potentially sign one.

Maybe somebody's willing to give him over $7m on a 5-year deal -- even less of a reason to entertain the usual Tampa approach of a bridge deal.

 

[DFC]

I wouldn't necessarily say he'd be an idiot for doing so...

The reality is, I don't believe Tampa has handed out a 5+ year 2nd contract since Steven Stamkos, and that was 7 years ago before they became perpetually good. At every opportunity, they've given bridge deals.

Given their current cap structure, a bridge deal may be exactly what they want to do with Point. My point (no pun intended), is that it may not make much sense for Point to consider a bridge, in which case he can present the legitimate threat of an offer sheet, or potentially sign one.

That's why every TB fan is saying we're probably going to bridge him.

However, if we thought we could get Point for 5 years at < 7m? We wouldn't bother with the bridge. He's played himself out of that price range.

 

[seanlinden]

That's why every TB fan is saying we're probably going to bridge him.

However, if we thought we could get Point for 5 years at < 7m? We wouldn't bother with the bridge. He's played himself out of that price range.

At 5 years, you probably can get him in around $7m... worst case $7.5m -- he'll be 28 years old when the contract expires, have made his money, but still in a strong negotiating position (much like Tavares and Stamkos were), where teams aren't really concerned over giving you a 7 year deal and the potential decline, because you'll be 35 in the final year of it.

The question is -- is he prepared to accept a bridge contract -- he's obviously bloomed much earlier than most of the Tampa players that have gone the bridge route.

 

[AndreRoy]

The question / challenge will be, based on the history of bridge deals, fair is probably in the neighborhood of $5m on a 2 year deal. These bridge deals are becoming less and less popular as we see more 20-22 year olds dominate. Agents and players want security -- Point knows he can go and get an offer sheet where somebody will sign him for 5 years at around $6.5 - $7m; and that would still leave a great 3rd contract on the table at 27-28. Is he prepared to buy into the Tampa approach, turn down $20+ million in guaranteed money, and get another 3 years of future contract to negotiate?

That’s not even a problem for us. If we can bridge Point at $5M then we probably don’t even need to move Callahan (though we’d likely look to do so anyway to give us room to sign a veteran defenseman on a cheap one-year deal to play on our bottom pairing.) If we can get Point for five years at $7M we’ll gladly do it; if the cap rises enough we still might not need to trade Callahan to fit everybody in, and if it doesn’t we can retain 50% on Cally which makes him easy to move while clearing almost $1M more than the additional $2M needed for Point’s contract.

We only start to run into problems if Point ends up costing more than $8M AND the cap only goes up by a couple million; in that event we’d either need to find a team willing to take on most or all of Cally’s salary for a year, or in a worst case scenario we’d have to look into trading McDonagh or Gourde (which again would be a shame but far from the end of the world for us given that this team made two deep playoff runs without either of them on the roster.)

So yes, Point taking a cheap bridge would certainly make things easier for us, but if he doesn’t we have multiple options depending on how much cap space we need to clear that don’t involve us losing a core player. At worst we might lose one really good complementary player but we’d still be one of the top teams in the league.

 

[AndreRoy]

My point (no pun intended), is that it may not make much sense for Point to consider a bridge, in which case he can present the legitimate threat of an offer sheet, or potentially sign one.

It’s not going to come anywhere near that. As I’ve already pointed (no pun intended) out we can afford to pay Point $7-8M with relatively little trouble. We’ll ask him to take a cheaper bridge, but if he says he wants that five-year deal we’ll give it to him and be done with it. He doesn’t seem like the type to play hardball with us and we aren’t going to be stupid enough to play hardball with him. Unless he decides to be completely unreasonable (which would be out of character for him) we’re not going to get anywhere close to a Nylander situation here.

 

[Mr Plow]

How much do you think Stralman will get next year in UFA?