Speculation: Tampa Bay's upcoming cap crunch

[BoltzManConstant]

I said as good as Point is now.

I love me some Brayden Point, but we're dealing with some small-sample effects at this point in the season, plus the fact that Point has Nikita friggin' Kucherov on his wing.

Kuch was our leading point scorer in the regular season (66) AND the playoffs (19) in his final ELC year. Plus he was a guy with clear upside, because he was too unselfish and didn't shoot enough. And he did it playing with Johnson and Palat, who are solid but are not Nikita friggin Kucherov.

It's the optimist in me who hopes that the Lightning will be signing someone in Point who appears to hold as much value as Kuch appeared to hold in summer 2016.

So yeah, Yzerman did it to someone as good as Point is now.

Stepping back for a minute, it's kinda unbelievable that we have another young player of a quality to rival Kuch just a 3 short years later. Lightning fans are well and truly spoiled.

 

[DFC]

I love me some Brayden Point, but we're dealing with some small-sample effects at this point in the season, plus the fact that Point has Nikita friggin' Kucherov on his wing.

Kuch was our leading point scorer in the regular season (66) AND the playoffs (19) in his final ELC year. Plus he was a guy with clear upside, because he was too unselfish and didn't shoot enough. And he did it playing with Johnson and Palat, who are solid but are not Nikita friggin Kucherov.

It's the optimist in me who hopes that the Lightning will be signing someone in Point who appears to hold as much value as Kuch appeared to hold in summer 2016.

So yeah, Yzerman did it to someone as good as Point is now.

Stepping back for a minute, it's kinda unbelievable that we have another young player of a quality to rival Kuch just a 3 short years later. Lightning fans are well and truly spoiled.

Kucherov wasn't as good as Point is now. Their offense might be similar (comparing Point NOW to Kuch THEN), but Point's two-way ability more than counter-balances that. Point is emerging as one of the better centers in the league. It would be another full year before Kucherov emerged as one of the better wingers in the league, and then he went beyond that, obviously. But Point's 2018/2019 is a lot closer to Kucherov's 2016/2017 than the year he signed. Point has already broken into the elite tier. Kucherov hadn't quite done that at the time, even if it looked like he was about to.

It's a good time to be a Lightning fan. We have a prime core and then a secondary core coming up behind it, led by Point, and no signs the factory is slowing down.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Kucherov wasn't as good as Point is now. Their offense might be similar (comparing Point NOW to Kuch THEN), but Point's two-way ability more than counter-balances that. Point is emerging as one of the better centers in the league. It would be another full year before Kucherov emerged as one of the better wingers in the league, and then he went beyond that, obviously. But Point's 2018/2019 is a lot closer to Kucherov's 2016/2017 than the year he signed. Point has already broken into the elite tier. Kucherov hadn't quite done that at the time, even if it looked like he was about to.

It's a good time to be a Lightning fan. We have a prime core and then a secondary core coming up behind it, led by Point, and no signs the factory is slowing down.

Kuch was the leading point producer -- both regular season and playoffs -- of a team that went to game 7 in the ECF vs the eventual Cup champion.

The advanced stats were showing him as the most valuable player on the team -- ahead of even a healthy Stamkos. And it was clear that he still needed to shoot more.

Kuch was elite by the year he re-signed. Point is outproducing Kuch's 15-16 numbers thus far, but as I said before, there are some sample-size effects in play, plus the fact that Point has 2018 Kuch on his wing.

 

[DFC]

Kuch was the leading point producer -- both regular season and playoffs -- of a team that went to game 7 in the ECF vs the eventual Cup champion.

The advanced stats were showing him as the most valuable player on the team -- ahead of even a healthy Stamkos. And it was clear that he still needed to shoot more.

Kuch was elite by the year he re-signed. Point is outproducing Kuch's 15-16 numbers thus far, but as I said before, there are some sample-size effects in play, plus the fact that Point has 2018 Kuch on his wing.

That's all well and good, but we're a better team right now, Point has only had Kuch on his wing for about 12-15 games, is also out-producing a healthy Stamkos, was also the best player on a team that went to Game 7 against the eventual Stanley Cup Champions, and Point's two way ability sets him above and beyond a 65 point winger. Kucherov's playoff heroics even things up a little, but still, 2018 Point > 2016 Kucherov, by a pretty decent margin.

I think downplaying how good Point is, in hopes that we might sign him to a ridiculous contract, is just not realistic. I don't think he's going to break our cap structure or anything, but he's an elite player, and, bridge or no bridge, we're going to figure out a way to pay him like one.

 

[Sky04]

I assume you used an 83m cap? So you have just under 10 mil in cap space with 15 players signed. Let's say 9 mil to Point (which is incredibly generous, and probably falsely assuming Tampa can enforce an internal cap and get a discount). 1 mil cap space with 16 players signed. Let's say you do trade miller for that bottom pairing D. 2 mil for a bottom pairing D, and you're at 4.25 mil with 16 players signed. With the bonus overages from this year (up to 1.6 mil), you're probably at around 4 mil if you don't do anything at the deadline this year. I've heard Foote's name mentioned, so about 3 mil with 17 players signed. You have 6 arbitration eligible players; 3 of which are on the NHL roster. Are you getting rid of them and replacing them all with prospects? Even just qualifying them would cost almost the remaining 3 million. Are you relying on them all accepting their qualifying offers? Are you then planning on running a 20-man roster with no extras, and having $0 in cap space? I'm sorry, but this seems like a stretch.


And then yeah, maybe the cap goes up another 3 mil the next year, and maybe you trade Palat to one of the teams he doesn't choose to list, and Callahan comes off if you didn't buy him out when you ran out of space the year before, but no cap space means the bonus overages all get pushed forward to that year, which will be at least 1.9 mil with the 20-man roster, and probably more with the ELCs you need to use.

I'm not sure why a 40-point rookie defenseman that is about to take on more responsibility and apparently excel is projecting to be cheap. Vasilevsky is also arbitration eligible, a Vezina finalist, and one of the most important pieces of your core. Cernak, Cirelli, Joseph, and probably other prospects you bring up will have their contracts due as well, and all I've been told is that they are going to step in and be amazing and shoulder key responsibilities (and in some cases, apparently already have), but that equals money...

Like, it's going to be really tough, and I know you've been hearing this for five years and all that, but it feels like a lot of you are in denial. Things are unlikely to go exactly as you all imagine it will, and it seems like most of you are relying on that.

Ironic, but we can all learn from a bad analysis.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Ironic, but we can all learn from a bad analysis.

What a weird thread to bump like a year later. It's not a bad analysis at all. You do know that Point signed a bridge, which was not expected back then and lowers the AAV, right?

Plus, Tampa's cap troubles are far, far from over, so weird time to start randomly bragging.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Ironic, but we can all learn from a bad analysis.

This Point contract is great... but we are still going to have a crunch next year. We're going to have to dump Killer, and I wouldn't be shocked if we have to lose one of Cirelli/Joseph/Sergachev/Cernak. But that's really our worst case scenario -- it won't be any worse than that.
On the other hand, if we can talk them all into extremely cheap (maybe only 1 or 2 year) deals, we just might pull it off.

 

[Sky04]

What a weird thread to bump like a year later. It's not a bad analysis at all. You do know that Point signed a bridge, which was not expected back then and lowers the AAV, right?

Plus, Tampa's cap troubles are far, far from over, so weird time to start randomly bragging.

We 100% expected a bridge possibility, you were the one in denial.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Ironic, but we can all learn from a bad analysis.

 

[Sky04]

Tampa fans thinking point will bridge or sign for 7-8 million are delusional. Show me the last time a player finished top 5 in both points and goals in a contract year and took a bridge deal. At this point, Eichel money is a discount. He could ask for 11+ (percentage of cap) but I think he'll sign for 10 because of taxes.

Why can't an offer sheet be a threat? I hear all the time on here marner is a threat why not point who plays center? He won't bridge. I'll bet real $ on it

Hope you didn't bet much pal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We 100% expected a bridge possibility, you were the one in denial.

Most people were not expecting a bridge back then at all. Pretty much nothing in my analysis was wrong. You were forced to bridge Point, Vasilevsky got paid, and you're literally still in the middle of your cap crunch.

 

[Sky04]

Most people were not expecting a bridge back then at all. Pretty much nothing in my analysis was wrong. You were forced to bridge Point, Vasilevsky got paid, and you're literally still in the middle of your cap crunch.

"Not expected" from who? Outside fans with no team insight? A bridge deal was forseen, again - are you just in denial because you didn't think it could happen?

Some context: 3x$5.5m is approximately (slightly higher) than the cap percentage for the first year of Kucherov’s bridge deal. Anything in this ballpark should be anything but a shocking result.

Whatever the term and cap charge, fully expect we’ll see a nice chunk of signing bonus money.

I doubt you hear that from TB fans. We're old hands at cap crunches. A good GM gets you through, and you keep improving.

I think it's much more realistic that Point takes a bridge for about three years, and ends up making even more money in the long run. I think that bridge is going to be more expensive than most of us want to admit. At the same time, if we lock this kid up, I'm also ecstatic. He's a special player.

1. Point is getting bridged at 3 x 5.5. You heard it here first

Some context: 3x$5.5m is approximately (slightly higher) than the cap percentage for the first year of Kucherov’s bridge deal. Anything in this ballpark should be anything but a shocking result.

Whatever the term and cap charge, fully expect we’ll see a nice chunk of signing bonus money.

Kucherov did it. Also, you can make the same argument for every player that signs a big contract with Tampa. Everyone leaves millions on the Lightning and they seem fine with it so why not Point as well?

 

[Dekes For Days]

"Not expected" from who? Outside fans with no team insight?

So that's 5 people total, who were talking about possibilities not expecting it, and all of them said much lower money than he got on a bridge deal. And my 9m was based on a longer-term deal, so not really sure your point.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Wasn't this before TB was able to shirk Callahan's deal too? That was a pretty big piece of good fortune for their cap situation.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Most people were not expecting a bridge back then at all. Pretty much nothing in my analysis was wrong. You were forced to bridge Point, Vasilevsky got paid, and you're literally still in the middle of your cap crunch.

Oh, nothing in this analysis was wrong? Okay.

So many people claiming that their player will take a multi-million dollar per year discount per season because of a highly misunderstood "tax advantage" that doesn't really exist and doesn't influence much, and might save that player a couple hundred thousand when all is said and done.

I will post this EVERY SINGLE TIME you whine about taxes. You said it yourself, nothing about this analysis was wrong.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Oh, nothing in this analysis was wrong?

Nothing in my analysis that was quoted up above to bump this year-old thread to apparently brag that Tampa was forced into a bridge due to cap constraints.

Clearly tax advantages are alive and well. More than I thought a year ago. Your obsession with me is quite sad.

 

[God King Fudge]

I'd hate to be so obsessed with something so unimportant that you spend the time you do here doing what you do and act the way you act.

 

[Hunter368]

I think we all know how this worked out, no point bumping it. Closed