Speculation: Tampa Bay's upcoming cap crunch

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Critical13

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Feb 25, 2017
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As of today, Tampa has 6.38 million cap space for 2019-20. With the projected leaked limit going to 83, that number would go up to 9.88 million in space.

UFAs and RFAs for next year include:

Cedric Paquette
Adam Erner
Danick Martel
Brayden Point
Braydon Coburn
Dan Girardi
Anton Stralman
Slater Koekkoek
Edward Pasquale

In 2020-21, Vinny and Carle come off the books, but Vasileski, Sergachev, Cirelli and Joseph all need new contracts.

I see 1 contract that stands out:

Brayden Point - 9 million

I estimated on the lower end, but if he keeps up his season, I see him getting Marner/Rantanen money, or possibly even Eichel money due to his position.

That leaves around a million to fill the other 8 spots, including 2 top 4 dmen. Also, they must consider the big deals coming up for the guys mentioned in 2021.

I've seen Callahan as a potential trade target, but he has a M-NTC and I would imagine they would need to give up something good to move him at 5.8.

Johnson also comes up but he has a NTC and I don't see why he would willingly be traded. Killorn also has a NTC.
 

Bolt32

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Miller is the guy probably going to go. I'd rather keep Johnson personally. You shed Millers salary and you can fill out our roster from Above, Stralman if he is coming back will be for even less, the same for Coburn and Girardi. One of them will be walking as Cernak a young kid is proving he's NHL ready and there is no reason to bring them all back. Were really not in that bad of shape. Point won't be making 9 million by the way. Probably more like 6.5 to 7.5 Million.
 

Critical13

Fear is the mind-killer.
Feb 25, 2017
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Miller is the guy probably going to go. I'd rather keep Johnson personally. You shed Millers salary and you can fill out our roster from Above, Stralman if he is coming back will be for even less, the same for Coburn and Girardi. One of them will be walking as Cernak a young kid is proving he's NHL ready and there is no reason to bring them all back. Were really not in that bad of shape. Point won't be making 9 million by the way. Probably more like 6.5 to 7.5 Million.

How can you estimate that the top scoring RFA C in the NHL will be making max 7.5? That seems out of touch unless you are banking on a bridge deal.
 

Five Alarm Fire

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Sign Point to a bridge.

Trade Miller, Callahan. Miller has value and Callahan only has 1 year left. Speculation is that NYR was willing to take on his contract last summer, and I don't see why the Rangers wouldn't make his approved list.

Sign one of our UFA defensemen, perhaps Stralman comes back for an equal or lessor cap hit. Cernak and Sergachev are capable ELC defensemen to fill out the rest.

Remaining RFA's could be dicey, Paquette and Erne could be up for modest raises. Either way, both are replaceable from within.
 

Bolt32

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How can you estimate that the top scoring RFA C in the NHL will be making max 7.5? That seems out of touch unless you are banking on a bridge deal.
A bridge deal is probably exactly what is going to happen. I love Point, but yeah. He's done nothing to prove that he deserves that substantial contract. This season he is going on a tear, last season wasn't even a PPG. He hasn't shown he can do this over a consistent time. No were not paying close to what Kucherov is getting without the track record to prove it. Unless he wins the Art Ross this year or put up a 110+ points then no.
 

Kobe Armstrong

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Tampa still has the tax advantage I don't see Point asking for 9mil as a low-end estimate
 

AndreRoy

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Miller will be traded. Stralman, Coburn, and Girardi can all be allowed to walk; if possible we might resign one of the latter two or bring in someone from the outside on a cheap one-year to provide a veteran presence on the bottom pairing but otherwise we’ll be counting on Cernak and Foote to play well on their ELCs (at which Cernak is already doing a fine job.) If need be we can retain on Callahan to make him easy to move, or at worst buy him out, though if we bridge Point cheaply enough that may not be necessary. In an absolute worst case scenario with Point demanding a high-priced longterm deal we can trade McDonagh or Gourde before their NTCs kick in; either would suck to lose but we went to the SCF and ECF before either was even on the roster so losing one wouldn’t be the end of the world. The following year Callahan and Carle are off the books and Killorn’s NTC goes from full to modified.

In short cap space will indeed be tight, but the situation is manageable and at worst we might lose a member of the supporting cast; our core will remain intact.
 
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Leonardo87

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Dec 8, 2013
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Sign Point to a bridge.

Trade Miller, Callahan. Miller has value and Callahan only has 1 year left. Speculation is that NYR was willing to take on his contract last summer, and I don't see why the Rangers wouldn't make his approved list.

Sign one of our UFA defensemen, perhaps Stralman comes back for an equal or lessor cap hit. Cernak and Sergachev are capable ELC defensemen to fill out the rest.

Remaining RFA's could be dicey, Paquette and Erne could be up for modest raises. Either way, both are replaceable from within.

Rangers were willing to take on his contract when they thought there could be a early pick attached. Thats not the case anymore with only one year left. Callahan has some value, especially with salary retained by Tampa. He is not getting ice time because of Tampa’s depth, not his play. Tampa might need to add a late pick to sweeten the deal, but don’t think that is ideal if salary is retained. Rangers are a mess now with little grit and leadership, so see that as a possible match. Rangers are on his list. But not sure they want to bring their ex-captain back, while they are rebuilding.

Buffalo makes more sense since they are contending now. I’m not sure they are as deep as Tampa. So him in their bottom 6 could be an upgrade. Would also add a couple of percentage points onto their PK. If Tampa does retains some salary like 2 million, would be worth the cap hit even if he is in their bottom 6 and killing penalties.

The simple solution move Miller since he has no NTC now, can get a nice return, maybe even recover that lost 2nd round pick. The cap is going up, probably as much as 4 million, that gives Tampa around 15 to 16 million to bridge Point, maybe re-sign Stralman, fill the bottom spots, and keep everyone else. Watching Tampa, Miller seems like the 5th wheel, and don’t think they would miss a beat if he was gone. Palat has already taken his spot in the top 6.
 
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A91

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May 21, 2011
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You guys can fit him?

Would have to move out a guy like Kassian or Spooner but we can likely just make it work. Talbot cost himself a big contract with his play the past two seasons, so we save a few million there.

I'd be interested in Palat or JT Miller. What would the Bolts want?
Something around Yammamoto+?
 

Captain Mountain

Formerly Captain Wolverine
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they call point the best player on the team ainec but when it comes to his next contract his play suddenly is starting to leave a lot to be desired.

This is my thought. Has Point actually signaled he'd sign a bridge, or is that just an assumption based on the previous league status quo?

unless Point falls off significantly, he's looking like he'd be worth a lot. And considering his two way game and position, I'm not sure that he's not a player that GM would risk an offer sheet on.
 

AndreRoy

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they call point the best player on the team ainec but when it comes to his next contract his play suddenly is starting to leave a lot to be desired.

Nobody’s saying that. What people are saying is that every other RFA of note on this roster has taken a bridge deal, so it’s highly likely that Point will be asked to do the same. He may decline to do so, but he’s a team-first guy and if he takes a three-year bridge it’ll end when Palat comes off the books and he’ll be in a position to make some serious money, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go along with the idea. Personally I wanted us to lock up Kucherov at $6-7M when we had the chance instead of bridging him so we could give Killorn that contract, and ideally I’d like to do the same with Point, but at this point a bridge deal would fit much better into our current cap structure so I assume that’s what we’ll be trying for. But in the end as I’ve said before we’ll do whatever it takes to get Point signed and then worry about who it costs us afterward.
 

DFC

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How can you estimate that the top scoring RFA C in the NHL will be making max 7.5? That seems out of touch unless you are banking on a bridge deal.

Kinda the way people went nuts when we signed Hedman and Kucherov. And those were UFA contracts (more/less in Kucherov's case).

Point will get paid. I think he'll get paid more than most Lightning fans believe, but it won't be an astronomical number.

We're gonna move Callahan and Miller. Then we have a decision to make on our defense.
 

AndreRoy

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This is my thought. Has Point actually signaled he'd sign a bridge, or is that just an assumption based on the previous league status quo?

unless Point falls off significantly, he's looking like he'd be worth a lot. And considering his two way game and position, I'm not sure that he's not a player that GM would risk an offer sheet on.

The Lightning would match just about any offer that another team might make. I mean if someone wants to throw $15M at him we’ll likely walk away and take the picks, but any reasonable amount and we’ll happily match it and figure out who has to go afterward.
 

Captain Mountain

Formerly Captain Wolverine
Jun 6, 2010
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The Lightning would match just about any offer that another team might make. I mean if someone wants to throw $15M at him we’ll likely walk away and take the picks, but any reasonable amount and we’ll happily match it and figure out who has to go afterward.

I get that, but there's a difference between saying he'll take a bridge deal vs. having to pay him (from offer sheet threat or just his potential demands). Tampa has a cap crunch coming up if he's not taking an incredibly friendly bridge deal. And why should he?
 

2020 Cup Champions

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Would have to move out a guy like Kassian or Spooner but we can likely just make it work. Talbot cost himself a big contract with his play the past two seasons, so we save a few million there.

I'd be interested in Palat or JT Miller. What would the Bolts want?
Something around Yammamoto+?
Best offer, I'm sure. Both Palat and Miller should generate a reasonable amount of interest; Palat controls his destiny to some extent. We don't necessarily need an immediate replacement for either (I think, it's been hard for me to catch games this year). As another Lightning poster said, we are going to have decisions to make regarding our defense. I expect and somewhat hope that we give Stralman another contract at a lesser cap hit. Koekkoek is a big question mark to me.
 

2020 Cup Champions

Formerly Sila v Kucherove
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I get that, but there's a difference between saying he'll take a bridge deal vs. having to pay him (from offer sheet threat or just his potential demands). Tampa has a cap crunch coming up if he's not taking an incredibly friendly bridge deal. And why should he?
Offer sheet is the only possibility now, I think. He is still on his ELC so he doesn't really get to demand anything unless he holds out.
 

AndreRoy

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Jan 3, 2018
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I'd be interested in Palat or JT Miller. What would the Bolts want?
Something around Yammamoto+?

Palat’s not available and in any event has a full NTC so without his blessing we couldn’t trade him even if we wanted to. As far as Miller is concerned we’ll ultimately take the best offer we can get for him, but in a perfect world we’d probably like either a defensive prospect with solid NHL potential or a young NHL defenseman on a cheap deal who could play effectively on our bottom pairing without requiring adult supervision. The former would help restock the farm, while the latter would give us someone with experience who could carry our bottom pairing and either partner with Foote or allow us to let him develop a while longer. Again, though, if we aren’t able to get such a player/prospect then we’ll just take the best available offer.
 
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