Speculation: Tampa Bay's upcoming cap crunch

[Vitto79]

That’s too much for a player who still has value.

Tampa has no leverage they have to dump that contract and he would likely only waive to certain teams

 

[Leonardo87]

Tampa has no leverage they have to dump that contract and he would likely only waive to certain teams

They retain salary, simple as that. Also, if they move Miller and with the cap going up Callahan could just play out his contract.

 

[JoVel]

Would you guys be open to trading Point and or Sergachev?

Isles really need a 2c and a dman.

You need a 2C so you ask for Point? That doesn't make sense. And no, Point is one of the last guys in the team we would give away.

 

[Cmac66]

Would you guys be open to trading Point and or Sergachev?

Isles really need a 2c and a dman.

Nelson, Mayfield for Point and Callahan?

Or Nelson, Mayfield and one of AHO/VandeSompel for Point and Callahan

OR Nelson, Mayfield, Wotherspoon, Bellows (or Golyshev) for Point and Sergachev

OR Nelson, Mayfield, Eberle, Beauvellier for Point and Sergachev

I included Nelson and Mayfield in all the trades because there has to be a centre and a dman going the other way and Mayfield is a steal with his contract and upside.

Would think that we would get better offers for both individually or together.

 

[Vitto79]

They retain salary, simple as that. Also, if they move Miller and with the cap going up Callahan could just play out his contract.

I doubt it . 1 year just move the guy he’s a 4th line pker now . Is it that much bumping the 2nd up to a 1st and adding a pick

2nd rounders are thrown around all the time . Guess we will see

 

[Cmac66]

I have said it once and I happily say it again, Callahan is not going to be as hard to get rid of then some people think, may cost us a little bit but a 1st and a 2nd is laughable. Look at what Hossa returned in the deal between the Blackhawks and the coyotes.

 

[Leonardo87]

I doubt it . 1 year just move the guy he’s a 4th line pker now . Is it that much bumping the 2nd up to a 1st and adding a pick

2nd rounders are thrown around all the time . Guess we will see

Not with salary retained, It would create more value for the player, and would fetch a return.

 

[Mikeaveli]

Would you guys be open to trading Point and or Sergachev?

Isles really need a 2c and a dman.

Nelson, Mayfield for Point and Callahan?

Or Nelson, Mayfield and one of AHO/VandeSompel for Point and Callahan

OR Nelson, Mayfield, Wotherspoon, Bellows (or Golyshev) for Point and Sergachev

OR Nelson, Mayfield, Eberle, Beauvellier for Point and Sergachev

I included Nelson and Mayfield in all the trades because there has to be a centre and a dman going the other way and Mayfield is a steal with his contract and upside.

Why would a contending team trade away their first line center for worse players?

 

[biturbo19]

It doesn't actually seem like that big of a problem for Tampa. By the time you move someone like JT Miller, and hopefully get at least one of Sergachev/Cernak/Foote/et al stepping into a Top-4 role on defence...you're pretty much in the clear for 2019-20.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Just played around with Armchair GM. This isnt as far out of realm of possibilities as people think.

Bolts19 - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Mikeaveli]

It doesn't actually seem like that big of a problem for Tampa. By the time you move someone like JT Miller, and hopefully get at least one of Sergachev/Cernak/Foote/et al stepping into a Top-4 role on defence...you're pretty much in the clear for 2019-20.

Pretty much this. I'm more concerned about getting Vasy and Sergachev signed the season after.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Just played around with Armchair GM. This isnt as far out of realm of possibilities as people think.

Bolts19 - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

It might be with second thought but I think there is a chance something like that could happen. TB has a winning culture. Sometimes players take less to be a part of that.

 

[AndreRoy]

Would you guys be open to trading Point and or Sergachev?

LMAO no, we would not.

Also LMAO that you think Point would be your 2C.

How about you give us Barzal for spare parts? Because that’s precisely what you just offered us.

 

[AndreRoy]

Just played around with Armchair GM. This isnt as far out of realm of possibilities as people think.

Bolts19 - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

It is because signing Karlsson would cause us to lose Vasy and Serg the following year. Maintaining what we have is very much doable; adding Karlsson is not.

 

[CupsOverCash]

It is because signing Karlsson would cause us to lose Vasy and Serg the following year. Maintaining what we have is very much doable; adding Karlsson is not.

Not that I dont disagree. Just looked at following year when they are up for contracts with 13 mil to sign those two and RFAs. Well what if we trade Killorn and maybe Palat too? Two replaceable players.

 

[AndreRoy]

Pretty much this. I'm more concerned about getting Vasy and Sergachev signed the season after.

The cap will go up some more, Callahan and Carle will be off the books, Killorn will be tradeable, and we may be able to use the expansion draft to clear another largish contract if necessary. In addition while Sergachev will certainly get a raise he hasn’t been playing at a level that will see him get a massive contract coming off of his ELC - not unless he really steps his game up in the next year and a half. We should be OK.

 

[mashedpotato]

Tampy Bay has been in cap crunch for years now - Somehow Yzerman's managed to sign his players and stay under....

...Looking forward to see how a mere mortal will do it now.

 

[Todd1a]

Kinda the way people went nuts when we signed Hedman and Kucherov. And those were UFA contracts (more/less in Kucherov's case).

Point will get paid. I think he'll get paid more than most Lightning fans believe, but it won't be an astronomical number.

We're gonna move Callahan and Miller. Then we have a decision to make on our defense.

I think point does a 6 year deal for 7 avv

 

[CupsOverCash]

Tampy Bay has been in cap crunch for years now - Somehow Yzerman's managed to sign his players and stay under....

...Looking forward to see how a mere mortal will do it now.

From what I understand, BB is an asset in negotiations. Dont think he has quite the stare down that SY has but sounds like he is good there. What will be interesting is how he does in trades. SY has been amazing at that.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I think point does a 6 year deal for 7 avv

I think it depends on what the plan is. What kind of salary gets moved out. Will be interesting to follow for sure. Dont think there will be one unhappy fan when we see Point has re-signed for any number. Guy has been unreal.

 

[Todd1a]

One thing I've noticed with Tampa Bay -- and this may be one of the reasons they've been so consistently successful -- when it comes to 2nd contracts -- they go bridge deals.

When a team takes a 21-23 year old player, and locks him up for 7-8 years, that player knows his next contract being negotiated will be when he is older than the league average of 27 years old -- so he has to strike it big; meaning that teams pay for potential, and sign a deal that in years 1 & 2, they're bad deals... with the hope being that by years 3-4, they turn into good ones, and years 4+, great ones. Tampa has never really experienced a "setback", they're always letting their young players play for pennies on the dollar because they're on ELCs or short term RFA deals.

As a result, they've built some very successful teams, have a great culture, and combined with a great lifestyle, have had no concerns over the likes of Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, etc looking to pursue unrestricted free agency.

As a GM, the 6+ year deals are actually a bit counter-intuitive, as the super-long game may mean that you're gone before the team comes to fruiton.

With Yzerman gone, one has to wonder whether that trend will continue, although given their current salary structure, they may not have a choice but to sign Point to a 2 year bridge deal.

The question / challenge will be, based on the history of bridge deals, fair is probably in the neighborhood of $5m on a 2 year deal. These bridge deals are becoming less and less popular as we see more 20-22 year olds dominate. Agents and players want security -- Point knows he can go and get an offer sheet where somebody will sign him for 5 years at around $6.5 - $7m; and that would still leave a great 3rd contract on the table at 27-28. Is he prepared to buy into the Tampa approach, turn down $20+ million in guaranteed money, and get another 3 years of future contract to negotiate?

Doing Bridge deals is the only way to keep the full team together It would not surprise me if Point got one for say 5.5 avv for a three year deal. The bridge deal worked out for kucherov very well made about 5 avv for three years then cashed in after. If you want to keep your whole core it's the only way.

 

[DFC]

I think point does a 6 year deal for 7 avv

Unless his play falls off a cliff, getting him for Willy Nylander money is way, way too optimistic. Is anybody expecting him to score < a point per game right now? He sure looks like a ppg guy to me, and that's a guarded/conservative projection.

I think he'll take less money than his peers, but his peers are going to be the upper echelon of NHL talent.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Just played around with Armchair GM. This isnt as far out of realm of possibilities as people think.

Bolts19 - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

It is though.

1) Point isn't likely to sign any kind of 4 year deal. He'd either take a true bridge with a steep incline or a long term deal for more money.

2) Karlsson signing for 8.5 is pretty wishful thinking, even with an uneven performance in San Jose.

3) Why is Buffalo taking Callahan and giving up a better pick?

 

[Captain Mountain]

I have said it once and I happily say it again, Callahan is not going to be as hard to get rid of then some people think, may cost us a little bit but a 1st and a 2nd is laughable. Look at what Hossa returned in the deal between the Blackhawks and the coyotes.

Hossa was/is owed less over the last 3 years of his deal than Callahan is owed in his last season. Team's with internal caps aren't going to cheaply take on dumps that are expensive to pay.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's funny how Tampa has the worst cap crunch by far and everybody is so "meh" about it. They literally are forced to make moves just to keep the core together, they have NTCs and NMCs coming out their rear, the main target to trade is a HORRIBLE contract... And even if they pull all of it off, they'll likely still lose half of their defense and some of their forwards and half of their team will have to be ELCs... and it doesn't address the performance bonuses they may have, or the meteoric raises coming to Sergachev and Vasilevsky in 1 more year... They are literally forced into multiple difficult moves just to ice a significantly downgraded team for 1 year, before it gets worse...

So many teams saying "Oh, but we'll just dump this huge salary player". Or multiple. And for "cheap" too. Has anybody actually looked at the cap situation around the league, and the contracts that are currently coming due for most teams? I can't find many that won't be maxed out after signing their own players, especially if this current RFA contract trend holds up. Where is all of this space coming from? Who is going to take a 5.8 million dollar sub 20-point 34-year old player with a NTC and NMC for peanuts? Or at all? There's no LTIR, and it's not exactly minimal in terms of actual salary too, which are things that matter for many of these teams that have historically taken on these type of contracts.

So many people claiming that their player will take a multi-million dollar per year discount per season because of a highly misunderstood "tax advantage" that doesn't really exist and doesn't influence much, and might save that player a couple hundred thousand when all is said and done. Even if we want to live in the magical disproven world where these players are saving millions playing in Tampa, Tampa and their fans clearly don't feel like they have any obligation to keep these players in Tampa after being given that discount, and after handing out NTCs and NMCs, and will move anybody out on a whim to sign the next one. What is the motivation to sign cheap when you don't even get that supposed tax advantage for the majority of your contract?

Also, while some of your past players may have been happy to sign a bridge, why is the so-called best player on your team going to do so when he's already having a career year that he's unlikely to top by any significant amount? Most importantly, why is such a good player going to risk his future earnings by signing a bridge after an explosive season, right before a lockout that could affect what type of future contract he could get. Especially when your team is handing out 6-7 year terms and NTCs like candy to people in the middle of the lineup. Why do you think so many kids are suddenly waiting out their ELC for their full potential to show, and wanting long term? Your other bridge deals didn't overlap a lockout, and you just had your own player that was in a similar situation to Point come out and say that he wish he had held out and NOT taken a bridge deal.