I think there's three minimal chances that Tony isn't the winner.
1. If Ben somehow realizes that he has to turn on Tony, and take him out at the next vote. If Ben turns, Denise will turn. She already said to Ben and Sarah that she wants Tony out. From there, you only need one more between Michelle and the returnee to create a potential tie. If you get both, and I don't see why Michelle or the returnee would have such an allegiance to Tony, you can get Tony out. There's also the possibility that Ben would use his idol to get Tony out. He needs a big move. Does he think he's beating Tony or Sarah in the end? Tony could always play his idol, if the votes were on him, and save himself a week. I guess all he'd have to do if they were going to get him out was win one of the next two immunities, and he's guaranteed safety into the final four.
2. If the returnee comes back with an idol, they should keep quiet, pretend they are going to bow out admirably, let all the votes go on them, use an idol, and take Tony out. That would be the biggest move in the game so far, besides moves Tony has made. It might give them more of a resume to win the game strategically and with making big moves than any other player out there. Then again, if the returnee is likely to go out 5-1, Tony could strategically split the votes, and take out someone like Michelle or Denise.
3. Tony doesn't win final immunity or fire. Does anyone think Sarah and Ben might choose to take him to the final three? I don't think they would because it would be so incredibly stupid and these are all winners, but I'm also not sure that they wouldn't.
I don't like the idea of a returnee winning the game. If you were voted out, you don't deserve to win. I don't care who comes back, and who are the other two left, I would prefer any of them winning to a returnee. I also think production has completely over-done the Edge of Extinction part of this game. I know that they felt like they had to add it in to attract these players to be on the season, in case they got voted out early, but I absolutely don't like the idea of players who lost having an influence on the game.
The idea that one of them would come back into the game is ridiculous to begin with, but then giving them the power to effect the game after getting voted out as Monday Morning QB's is one of the things about this season I've liked least. I also think it's ridiculous that they are allowed to come back into the game with an idol. The person coming back in might actually have a better statistical chance to win than someone like Michelle or Denise. That should not be so.
