summer trades and signings chat

[Gniwder]

do you understand that im repeating myself in conversations with counter opinions ? have you decided its not right to engage in debate with others over topics we disagree on ? have you forgotten thats what fans do at forums

At least you're willing to admit that you're repeating yourself.

That's not how to hold an effective conversation. If you want to convince people, you bring in new information. Not really sure what you do for a living, but I'm guessing it's not business or customer related.

Repeating yourself only works when the other person is deaf, and you speak louder each time. That's what I do with my mom. Gonna make a doctors appointment for her tomorrow though, so she can get some hearing aids.

Anyways, you are welcome to have fun however you want. I'm not a mod.

 

[TatarTangle]

In regards to AA; if you can get a 15th-20th overall pick for him you pull the trigger given the state of the team.

You aren't getting anyone that is proven and good for him, unless AA is an add. He isn't a dynamic player. Explosive? Yep.

Objectively, he will never be good enough to command a trade value that demands an equivalent level of defensemen. He is a fantastic add that can sweeten the pot.

 

[Henkka]

Ken Holland about Puljujärvi situation:

As for this season, he has until 5 p.m. ET on Dec. 1 to sign his Q.O., or he cannot play in the NHL in the 2019-20 season. (You’ll recall the William Nylander negotiations stretching to the final moments last season.)

By later November, Karpat will have played some 24 Liiga games, a decent sample from which Oilers general manager Ken Holland can fashion a trade — assuming Puljujarvi shows as a dominant player in Oulu.

"I don’t know that him signing in Finland has a huge effect on the situation," Holland said on Tuesday morning, adding that is better for everyone that Puljujarvi is playing somewhere rather than holding out. "I’ve had conversations with numerous clubs that have had interest, some interest, in acquiring Jesse. And I have had, probably in the last 10 days, two or three new teams reach out to me. Teams whose positions have changed, and are checking into the Puljujarvi situation.

"I’ll do a deal if I feel good that I’m making a deal in the best interests of the Edmonton Oilers."

There's only 8 forwards from 2016 draft, who have produced more points than Puljujärvi. He is still so young. I could see him as a reclamation project. We have Filppula already here to ease his adjustment,, if that language thing is still a problem. No real pressure for succes with us, like it was at Oilers. No asshole media either.

And that would be almost like free asset, if we can snag him by trading a Holland-favored vet.

This would be perfect rebuild-move for me.

Phase A) trade vets for Oilers who are heavily pushing for playffs
Get a younger team and get big-sized, good skating a right-handed playmaking winger (in a mold of Blake Wheeler).

Phase B) trade left-handed wingers (from a surplus) in some sort of package for Defencemen/Centers

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

In regards to AA; if you can get a 15th-20th overall pick for him you pull the trigger given the state of the team.

You aren't getting anyone that is proven and good for him, unless AA is an add. He isn't a dynamic player. Explosive? Yep.

Objectively, he will never be good enough to command a trade value that demands an equivalent level of defensemen. He is a fantastic add that can sweeten the pot.

So then let him do his thing on wing this season, with maybe some time @ C, increase his trade value. Another 30G, 50+ pt. season & he probably fetches a good return, not just as a "sweetener"...Or, keep him, unless he demands too much $$/term. I trust SY.

 

[odin1981]

So then let him do his thing on wing this season, with maybe some time @ C, increase his trade value. Another 30G, 50+ pt. season & he probably fetches a good return, not just as a "sweetener"...Or, keep him, unless he demands too much $$/term. I trust SY.

He repeats what he did or improves on it and his take it to ufa deal won't be as cheap as many here believe. He has back to back 30+ goal years and we are looking at 4.5m per year.

 

[TatarTangle]

So then let him do his thing on wing this season, with maybe some time @ C, increase his trade value. Another 30G, 50+ pt. season & he probably fetches a good return, not just as a "sweetener"...Or, keep him, unless he demands too much $$/term. I trust SY.

Definitely let him do his thing at W; He is not smart enough to be a C. AA is the equivalent of Forrest Gump at WR in college.

I think KH served AA a slice of humble pie and AA ate it, meaning I don't think he'll demand anything outrageous. I do not like AA in the slightest but given his trade value vs what he brings, I think he's more valuable on the roster.

 

[Henkka]

Most career NHL points from 2016 draft:

1. C - Matthews (1st overall)
2. W - Laine (2nd overall)
3. W - Tkachuk (6th overall)
4. W - DeBrincat (39th overall)
5. F - Keller (7th overall)
6. C - Dubois (3rd overall)
7. D - Sergachev (9th overall)
8. W - Bratt (168th overall)
9. D - McAvoy (14th overall)
10. D - Chychrun (16th overall)
11. D - Girard (47th overall)
12. C - Jost (10th overall)
13. W - Puljujärvi (4th overall)
14. C - Howden (27th overall)
15. D - Hronek (53rd overall)
16. F - Thompson (26th overall)
17. C - Kunin (15th overall)
18. D - Mete (100th overall)
19. C - Borgström (23rd overall)
20. D - Cholowski (20th overall)

 

[BinCookin]

First off, I agree with Feleno in regards that AA is worth Tomasino. This is HF where people do not understand that Young Production is infact more valuable than younger potential. I would not be trading AA for Tomasino, i think AA has more value.

I wonder if Kenny trades some vets from DET for Puljujärvi before december 1st.

Kenny is right up next to the cap... It would be prospect + cap dump <---> Vet if that was the case

...There's only 8 forwards from 2016 draft, who have produced more points than Puljujärvi.

I am not impressed with anyone else (F's) on the list after pulju, so him being 16th isn't saying much.

He repeats what he did or improves on it and his take it to ufa deal won't be as cheap as many here believe. He has back to back 30+ goal years and we are looking at 4.5m per year.

4.5M? Try 5.5-6M.

 

[deca guard]

Well, here are the facts.
AA's top 2.
324 minutes with Glendening. 8-6-14
297 minutes with Nielsen. 7-4-11.
By comparison. Mantha's top 2.
595 minutes with Larkin. 7-10-16 262 minutes with Bertuzzi. 3-6-9.

Which isn't to take away from Mantha's decent season.
But my god.

this completely destroyed every opinion that manthas better than aa . this also destroys opinion that aa aint worth that much , 30 goals with neilsen and glenny is like 40 goals with a good center . i dont even need to see that stats , just need the eye test to realize this guy is an all world skater that can burn anybody . aa's worth is much higher than fans are saying here

 

[Henkka]

Kenny is right up next to the cap... It would be prospect + cap dump <---> Vet if that was the case

Oilers cap space will grow towards December 1st. It's 1/3 of the season point.

Also 50% retention could make every contract quite different and interesting.

 

[Henkka]

this completely destroyed every opinion that manthas better than aa . this also destroys opinion that aa aint worth that much , 30 goals with neilsen and glenny is like 40 goals with a good center . i dont even need to see that stats , just need the eye test to realize this guy is an all world skater that can burn anybody . aa's worth is much higher than fans are saying here

30 goals against easier matchups is like 20-25 goals against 1st line matchups.

There's also the thing called defence in hockey.

30 goals for and 40 against makes you a bad player.

20 for and 15 against makes you a good player.

 

[Oddbob]

30 goals against easier matchups is like 20-25 goals against 1st line matchups.

There's also the thing called defence in hockey.

30 goals for and 40 against makes you a bad player.

20 for and 15 against makes you a good player.

I agree about the matchup stuff. People love to bring up AA and similar players played with this or that crappy player, but they also went up against inferior competition from the opposition. Larkin and company are facing the Hedman's, Doughty's and Josi's of the NHL, while AA is going up against the DeHaan's, Hainsey's, and Brodie's of the NHL. Not running down AA either, just pointing out as others have, that better linemates also bring harder/tougher defence to get through. Also, better linemates don't always make you a better producer, otherwise Lucic could have just parked just outside the crease and got 30 goals a season in Edmonton.

 

[Konnan511]

30 goals against easier matchups is like 20-25 goals against 1st line matchups.

There's also the thing called defence in hockey.

30 goals for and 40 against makes you a bad player.

20 for and 15 against makes you a good player.

Just out of curiosity, I don't disagree with the GF/GA debate-ish, but where's the cutoff? 5 goals for and none against means that player is a good hockey player while a guy who gets 50 goals, but has 60 goals scored against his line makes him a bad hockey player? Which player would you rather have?

 

[deca guard]

30 goals against easier matchups is like 20-25 goals against 1st line matchups.

There's also the thing called defence in hockey.

30 goals for and 40 against makes you a bad player.

20 for and 15 against makes you a good player.

theres also a player named dylan larkin in hockey whom provides his wingers with gigantic amounts of good chances , probably like twice as many as a neilsen could create

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

1.3 million for a forward scoring at 0.45 points per game?

Who the **** is that comparable to? That is a tad low.

We ain't talking about his 3 mil a year bridge deal he signed next go around.

It was 1.3 because it was signed a good bit into the season and therefore the cap hit was actually pretty close to the 1.8.

The numbers being offered were close to 1.8-1.9 from Detroit for a 2 year deal (in line with Connor Brown, Sam Bennett and Josh Anderson) and 2.5 or more from AA's camp.

 

[MBH]

He repeats what he did or improves on it and his take it to ufa deal won't be as cheap as many here believe. He has back to back 30+ goal years and we are looking at 4.5m per year.

You're in for a rude awakening.

 

[Konnan511]

AA: 4.5% of the cap, 14% of our goals. 9% of our points. I like this guy.

 

[MBH]

30 goals against easier matchups is like 20-25 goals against 1st line matchups.

There's also the thing called defence in hockey.

30 goals for and 40 against makes you a bad player.

20 for and 15 against makes you a good player.

Larkin was about the same minus as AA last year. That makes him a bad player?

Athanasiou had a heck of a season last year - far more imporessive than Mantha did, given their linemates.
It's not even a debate.
I'm pretty sure that if Mantha and AA switch linemates, AA scores 35-40 goals and Mantha struggles to hit 20.
As good as AA was, I don't think we've topped out on his value.
Mantha rode a two-week hot streak to make his stats look decent at the end of the season.
Some want to see that two-week hot streak, and then his play against World Championship weak sisters, that Mount Manthony is about to erupt. But this guy has been mostly on our top line for 2+ years now. He's not someone who's been held back in the TOI department, or the linemates department.
I just think Mantha will ever the guy some hoped.
I think the Franzen comparison is pretty appropo. Mantha would probably look somewhat better if he had D/Z in their prime. But he'd still be dogged by inconsistency and periods of invisibility.


The Wings have some interesting decisions coming up with Mantha and AA.

If both Mantha and AA hit 30 goals, they're going to get paid. Well over $5M and somewhere near six.
This is it for them. This is the contract where they'll make more than the rest of their contracts combined.

If you want to trade AA or Mantha to avoid that, I can see the wisdom of that, I guess. The flip side to that is, at some point, if you ever want to improve, it's going to require paying players what they've earned.
But if you go the trade route, you still need value. And you should try to address a need.

How I'd rate the needs. And I'm just going to assume the players are 22-26..
1) LHD
2) G
3) C
4) RHD
5) RH Winger
6) LH Winger
-
The Risto trade would be a perfect move if he was a LHD. But having RHDs Seider, Hronek and then Kaski and company reduces its attractiveness.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Larkin was about the same minus as AA last year. That makes him a bad player?

Athanasiou had a heck of a season last year - far more imporessive than Mantha did, given their linemates.
It's not even a debate.
I'm pretty sure that if Mantha and AA switch linemates, AA scores 35-40 goals and Mantha struggles to hit 20.
As good as AA was, I don't think we've topped out on his value.
Mantha rode a two-week hot streak to make his stats look decent at the end of the season.
Some want to see that two-week hot streak, and then his play against World Championship weak sisters, that Mount Manthony is about to erupt. But this guy has been mostly on our top line for 2+ years now. He's not someone who's been held back in the TOI department, or the linemates department.
I just think Mantha will ever the guy some hoped.
I think the Franzen comparison is pretty appropo. Mantha would probably look somewhat better if he had D/Z in their prime. But he'd still be dogged by inconsistency and periods of invisibility.


The Wings have some interesting decisions coming up with Mantha and AA.

If both Mantha and AA hit 30 goals, they're going to get paid. Well over $5M and somewhere near six.
This is it for them. This is the contract where they'll make more than the rest of their contracts combined.

If you want to trade AA or Mantha to avoid that, I can see the wisdom of that, I guess. The flip side to that is, at some point, if you ever want to improve, it's going to require paying players what they've earned.
But if you go the trade route, you still need value. And you should try to address a need.

How I'd rate the needs. And I'm just going to assume the players are 22-26..
1) LHD
2) G
3) C
4) RHD
5) RH Winger
6) LH Winger
-
The Risto trade would be a perfect move if he was a LHD. But having RHDs Seider, Hronek and then Kaski and company reduces its attractiveness.

^Re: needs
...players are 22-26..
1) LHD (top pairing)
2) 2C (preferably RHS)
3) RHD (top 4)
4) RH Winger (top 6)
5) G (we can always sign one & have 1a/1b tandem)
6) LH Winger

 

[MBH]

^Re: needs
...players are 22-26..
1) LHD (top pairing)
2) 2C (preferably RHS)
3) RHD (top 4)
4) RH Winger (top 6)
5) G (we can always sign one & have 1a/1b tandem)
6) LH Winger

Fair enough.
I wanted Cozens because he was that RHC.
I just don't see AA or Mantha being enough to get us that top pairing LHD or 2C.

That Risto for Mantha deal is about as much as you're going to get. Most teams wouldn't even do that deal... but the Sabres are f***ing insane.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

We have had this debate a lot. While the couple statistics that favor AA are brought up, the underlying analytics favor Mantha to a healthy degree. Mantha has been virtually our only positive line driver outside of Larkin.

Here is another thing AA has actually been weaponized quite effectively by our coaching staff which is constantly ignored by his biggest P/60 defender since isn't Blashill his problem uh oh:

Place	Home	37	20	15	35	8	18	17	3	0	2	101	19.8	819	638:30	17:15
Road	39	10	9	19	-17	20	10	0	0	2	115	8.7	858	651:34	16:42

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Andreas Athanasiou 2018-19 Splits | Hockey-Reference.com

It's like his matchup is really important because of the issues in his game....

Let's remove December or March to make a point seems kind of silly when discussing the two.

Overall profiles

Anthony Mantha Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Andreas Athanasiou Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

For more info I would encourage you to look at both guys miscellaneous numbers below where AA is a career negative in terms of expected quality possession versus Mantha's net positive in terms of expected goals for against goals against. This accounts for matchups and linemates somewhat but again Mantha doesn't struggle as much as some think when away from Larkin. He does far better limiting damage while providing offense at similar levels, perhaps it is because he isn't leaking the zone early or losing his man in coverage as often...

In any event the comment was that Mantha likely has more value in Front Offices. He is the first round pick with bigger plus tools. AA is a speed merchant winger that finishes. I like him, I put less value on him than Mantha for sure and a big part of that is outside of playing tougher matchups he has traditionally had more possession quality both for and against during his tenure. Even on the adjusted totals while playing less games he lines up at or above AA in nearly everything.

 

[MBH]

Mantha
Home: 15-13-28 +7
Road 10-10-20 -15

AA
Home: 20-15-35 +8
Road: 10-9-19 -17

Looks pretty similar to me.

Interesting that Larkin's goals scored are way up on the road. But points are better at home and +/- obviously


As for people criticizing the goals/60 argument...
His 5 on 5 time keeps rising and his goals/60 rating and points/60 rating stays about the same.
At some point, people are going to have to concede that.

But maybe not. There are people who still think Holland did a bang-up job from 2010-19.






Larkin
Home 11-29-40 +7
Road 21-12-33 -13

 

[waltdetroit]

I wonder if Kenny trades some vets from DET for Puljujärvi before december 1st.

I just read this today. Maybe if he does well he'll be worth it:
"The Oilers still hold all the negotiation cards for Puljujarvi and do not need to rush into any decision. Ryan Rishaug has reported that Edmonton is currently looking for a first round pick or a player ready to play in the top 9 and a draft pick in return for Puljujarvi."
HockeyBuzz.com - Sean Maloughney - Jesse Puljujarvi Signs With Karpat

 

[deca guard]

You're in for a rude awakening.

last year besides playing with weak linemates he was playing out of position at center a whole bunch . and ive got a feeling kenny ordered both occurences so he wouldnt rack 40 goals right before he goes rfa . anyway one of two things happens this next season that either way crushes his detractors : 1 - hes traded for a way better return then most are saying could happen here . 2 - he racks 40 goals and his detractors are sporting goat horns for the season

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

last year besides playing with weak linemates he was playing out of position at center a whole bunch . and ive got a feeling kenny ordered both occurences so he wouldnt rack 40 goals right before he goes rfa . anyway one of two things happens this next season that either way crushes his detractors : 1 - hes traded for a way better return then most are saying could happen here . 2 - he racks 40 goals and his detractors are sporting goat horns for the season

iirc, didn't AA want to play C, as that was his natural position? I'd have no problem with AA as 3C (assuming 1 of Flip/Nielsen is gone), but he's got a ways to go before most would be comfortable with him as our 2C. Even if he hit 50+ pts consistently, there's a lot more to C then just points.