Speculation: Summer Baggage Thread

[JoemAvs]

Also, he is not supposed to be undersold just because people on a forum are way too eager to move our best player and used to making trades in frikking NHL17 in a heartbeat.

Problem is that even if he has a bounce back season, his value won't increase by all that much given that he will have less than 2 years left.
The only way that happens is if he puts up 70 next season and under the given circumstances, there is no way that happens.

And he sure as hell is not going to sign an extension with the Avs.

Avs are not going to win anything in the near future so an extra year of service out of Duchene is basically worthless to us.


So yeah. Sakic can keep playing the stubborn idiot like he is right now for another month maybe.

But if he does not get what he wants by then, he better be willing to settle for the best offer (I really don't believe that all the offers have been all that terrible. Its just not as good as he could have gotten some time ago and does not give him that magic D but eh) or accept that he will have to take a futures heavy deal a year from now that probably won't be as heavy as it could be right now.


If he is not getting that magic D he wants with Duchene @ 2 years left, there is no chance in hell he will get it with 1 year left on his deal.

The sad truth is that the odds are very high, that he will never get better offers for Duchene than he will have on the table in a couple of weeks at the latest.
Duchene is done with the Avs either now or in 2 years at the latest and we don't really need him on the ice anylonger.

So the smart play is to trade him for the best offer right now unless they are basically the same that you could get for Duchene with 1 year left. And I really don't think they are that bad.

 

[agentblack]

Duchene's value actually went down after Johansson went to Devils for 2nd and 3rd round pics.

More Sakic waits, lesser he's gonna get in return if he in fact trades Duchene. At the end of the day he's gonna wait too long and forced to make a panic trade, because i still don't think Duchene is gonna be willing to resign with the Avs after all this drama.

No it didnt, Mojo is good granted but i guarantee you Dutchy's numbers on a WSH team would eclipse his
and he's one of the best faceoff men in the league , and he's a much better player in every facet than MoJo
If a GM is buying Duchene he's playing him a C as well as a wing, so even better versatility

 

[the_fan]

I'm almost convinced Duchene either walks as a UFA in couple of years, or he's traded in a panic move that no one is gonna like the return. This is how this organization is being ran, and i don't see it changing anytime soon.

 

[agentblack]

Im fine with an all futures pkg, 3 or 4 players that can be solid- better than Avg- depth guys that can prop up our stars.

Novel idea i know.

 

[JoemAvs]

Im fine with an all futures pkg, 3 or 4 players that can be solid- better than Avg- depth guys that can prop up our stars.

Novel idea i know.

You don't trade an asset like Duchene for potential depth players only.

That sounds horrible..

You get 1st round picks + a high quality prospect + another decent piece if possible.

You never make a trade solely to acquire potential depth pieces IMO.

 

[the_fan]

No it didnt, Mojo is good granted but i guarantee you Dutchy's numbers on a WSH team would eclipse his
and he's one of the best faceoff men in the league , and he's a much better player in every facet than MoJo
If a GM is buying Duchene he's playing him a C as well as a wing, so even better versatility

The problem is GM's who want to trade for Duchene aren't gonna start speculating how he would do if he played for another team. They gonna look at other trades that went down for similar player. Recent one is Johansson who had better numbers than Duchene went for 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

[agentblack]

You don't trade an asset like Duchene for potential depth players only.

That sounds horrible..

You get 1st round picks + a high quality prospect + another decent piece if possible.

You never make a trade solely to acquire potential depth pieces IMO.

You can try but I doubt you get a teams best prospect ++

 

[JoemAvs]

You can try but I doubt you get a teams best prospect ++

If you can't even get the best prospect out of teams for Duchene right now, I have been 100 % wrong and Duchene should remain an Av.

But I really don't think that has been the problem. The problem has been the young, top 4 D that Sakic wants as well + more.


I am as pissed off with this whole Duchene fiasco as the next guy but there is no way in hell Duchene is only worth a few B+ prospects at this point.

If GMs really have been lowballing Sakic so far to this extent, keeping him really might be our only option.

But I have read nothing so far that makes me believe that Sakics asking price has been any less than young top4 D + top prospect + 1st.

And he is never going to get that.

 

[agentblack]

If you can't even get the best prospect out of teams for Duchene right now, I have been 100 % wrong and Duchene should remain an Av.

But I really don't think that has been the problem. The problem has been the young, top 4 D that Sakic wants as well + more.


I am as pissed off with this whole Duchene fiasco as the next guy but there is no way in hell Duchene is only worth a few B+ prospects at this point.

If GMs really have been lowballing Sakic so far to this extent, keeping him really might be our only option.

But I have read nothing so far that makes me believe that Sakics asking price has been any less than young top4 D + top prospect + 1st.

And he is never going to get that.

I guess the depth pieces im talking about would be guys like (if Dutchy went to the Blues for ex)
Barbashev, Tage Thompson, Sundqvist, etc. None of those guys are like standout super sexy high profile players like a PLD but they could be above average players to fill out your top 9 , guys that can prop up our Macks, Rants Jost types.

 

[AvsMakar08]

I'm almost convinced Duchene either walks as a UFA in couple of years, or he's traded in a panic move that no one is gonna like the return. This is how this organization is being ran, and i don't see it changing anytime soon.

Who convinced you? There is plenty of time to trade Duchene. Except for Nashville, other teams like Isles, Boston and Carolina don't want to give up quality assets because they might not be convinced that Duchene signs an extension with them. Next season there will be more players available in a trade and teams will be able to negotiate a contract with Duchene. He will be 28 years old.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Problem is that even if he has a bounce back season, his value won't increase by all that much given that he will have less than 2 years left.
The only way that happens is if he puts up 70 next season and under the given circumstances, there is no way that happens.

And he sure as hell is not going to sign an extension with the Avs.

Avs are not going to win anything in the near future so an extra year of service out of Duchene is basically worthless to us.


So yeah. Sakic can keep playing the stubborn idiot like he is right now for another month maybe.

But if he does not get what he wants by then, he better be willing to settle for the best offer (I really don't believe that all the offers have been all that terrible. Its just not as good as he could have gotten some time ago and does not give him that magic D but eh) or accept that he will have to take a futures heavy deal a year from now that probably won't be as heavy as it could be right now.


If he is not getting that magic D he wants with Duchene @ 2 years left, there is no chance in hell he will get it with 1 year left on his deal.

The sad truth is that the odds are very high, that he will never get better offers for Duchene than he will have on the table in a couple of weeks at the latest.
Duchene is done with the Avs either now or in 2 years at the latest and we don't really need him on the ice anylonger.

So the smart play is to trade him for the best offer right now unless they are basically the same that you could get for Duchene with 1 year left. And I really don't think they are that bad.

I might be completely wrong, but I think there is a chance that the first piece in the trade will be better once the team Duchene is being traded to can get some contract assurances.

As an example, I think Duchene would have been traded for Hanifin by now if Carolina could talk contract extension.

As in any prediction right or wrong, my belief in that factor makes me perfectly fine with Sakic holding out right now.

The only thing I see stopping me from being right on that is if Duchene hits the bottom of the dumpster next season and sucks. However if he maintains a high level of face off ability, and plays to his 50-60 point ability. We'll be fine.

 

[bohlmeister]

I'm almost convinced Duchene either walks as a UFA in couple of years, or he's traded in a panic move that no one is gonna like the return. This is how this organization is being ran, and i don't see it changing anytime soon.

Well that isn't true. I have a lot of complaints with Sakic and his stooges, but being curt sure isn't one of them.

 

[the_fan]

Who convinced you? There is plenty of time to trade Duchene. Except for Nashville, other teams like Isles, Boston and Carolina don't want to give up quality assets because they might not be convinced that Duchene signs an extension with them. Next season there will be more players available in a trade and teams will be able to negotiate a contract with Duchene. He will be 28 years old.

The Avs management. It's not like they haven't done the wrong thing before. Next year it's gonna be even harder to trade Duchene and get the return they want because he'l be one year older and only one year left in his contract.

If Sakic wants a lot in return right now, in what possible scenario he's gonna get that in a year if he can't even get that right now? That's why it's inevitable that they either lose Duchene to free agency like Stastny, or trade Duchene for much less, for an unproven prospects like ROR kind of trade.

 

[JoemAvs]

I might be completely wrong, but I think there is a chance that the first piece in the trade will be better once the team Duchene is being traded to can get some contract assurances.

As an example, I think Duchene would have been traded for Hanifin by now if Carolina could talk contract extension.

As in any prediction right or wrong, my belief in that factor makes me perfectly fine with Sakic holding out right now.

The only thing I see stopping me from being right on that is if Duchene hits the bottom of the dumpster next season and sucks. However if he maintains a high level of face off ability, and plays to his 50-60 point ability. We'll be fine.

I think that is mostly wishful thinking.

Really don't believe that teams are willing to give up more just because they might get the chance to overpay Duchene next season. Because given how these recent contracts are spiraling out of control, there is no way Duchene just extends for cheap on his next team. If he has a great season next year, he will want to cash in and teams are not going to give up a huge load of assets just for the privilege to overpay 28 year old Matt Duchene for the next 7 years or so.


If he has a bad season, he would be stupid to sign a longterm extension for his current market value. If the team then wants him, they will have to overpay in assets and money to make it happen or simply treat him as a rental which would kill his value even further.


I really don't see much of a win condition for the Avs in all this unless the offers are really terrible.


There is no Murray out there to save Sakics butt once again. I mean looking back we were incredibly lucky to find a guy so willing to bet the farm on ROR. Not sure other teams were even close to as interested to pay up for 1 year of ROR and in the end we probably still lost that deal.

People are also discounting the connection Murray had to RORs agency. You can bet your behind that he knew what he was doing there. That scenario won't happen again. It rarely does in this league. Trade and extend are not easy to pull off and do not happen often and if they do, you rarely get good value out of it.

It really depends on the offers and if the best we can do is really Thompson+ Barbashev level of prospects, I don't care anyways.

Might as well keep him because that return will never be worth it. Might as well gamble on a late 1st when he is a rental.


But I don't get the sense that the offers have been that bad. I just don't envision all these rumors about Sakic being unreasonable popping up and multiple GMs publicly commenting on it if his asking price was remotely reasonable right now.


He wants other GMs to save him from his own screwup like Murray did with ROR.
Ironically he probably wants even more this time because of the backlash he got for that deal.

And that is simply not gonna happen. Not now and certainly not in 12 months.

Canes are not going to offer up Hanifin (who by then probably will be untouchable anyways if he builds on last seasons finish) for 12 months of Duchene. Never going to happen.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

The Avs management. It's not like they haven't done the wrong thing before. Next year it's gonna be even harder to trade Duchene and get the return they want because he'l be one year older and only one year left in his contract.

If Sakic wants a lot in return right now, in what possible scenario he's gonna get that in a year if he can't even get that right now? That's why it's inevitable that they either lose Duchene to free agency like Stastny, or trade Duchene for much less, for an unproven prospects like ROR kind of trade.

This time next year he can talk extensions. Assuming he is willing to extend and bounces back to a 60 or so point player then his value should be better.

 

[the_fan]

The reason Sakic is screwing up this whole Duchene situation is that he should have never publicly put him up for sale. He obviously is overvaluing Duchene and wants to get ton in return that no GM is willing to give, and now there is bad blood between Duchene and the Avs.

I would just try to resign Duchene and keep him instead of trying to trade him and forced to get less. I rather have Duchene than another ROR for Zadorov type of trade, because that's what i see happening.

 

[Freudian]

Are we really going to invent hypothetical summer 2018 situations where Sakic somehow, like ****ing Rocky, turns inevitable defeat into triumph?

 

[Xokkeu]

The reason Sakic is screwing up this whole Duchene situation is that he should have never publicly put him up for sale. He obviously is overvaluing Duchene and wants to get ton in return that no GM is willing to give, and now there is bad blood between Duchene and the Avs.

I would just try to resign Duchene and keep him instead of trying to trade him and forced to get less. I rather have Duchene than another ROR for Zadorov type of trade, because that's what i see happening.

Realistically that's what we'd get. B level D prospect first round pick and throw in prospect

 

[bohlmeister]

The reason Sakic is screwing up this whole Duchene situation is that he should have never publicly put him up for sale. He obviously is overvaluing Duchene and wants to get ton in return that no GM is willing to give, and now there is bad blood between Duchene and the Avs.

I would just try to resign Duchene and keep him instead of trying to trade him and forced to get less. I rather have Duchene than another ROR for Zadorov type of trade, because that's what i see happening.

He didn't go public with it. The other GM's involved are fed up with his asking price and went to the media themselves. It is a power struggle. They are trying to ridicule Sakic, with his outlandish asking price. But they are angry because Duchene is a very good chip that there is a lot of interest in.

 

[henchman21]

Are we really going to invent hypothetical summer 2018 situations where Sakic somehow, like ****ing Rocky, turns inevitable defeat into triumph?

Just need to hire Carl Weathers and baby, we gotta stew goin!

 

[the_fan]

Realistically that's what we'd get. B level D prospect first round pick and throw in prospect

They drafted Makar, and have decent d prospects that can very well become very good top 4 d-men in the near future, i just don't see why even trade Duchene for another unknown prospect or a draft pick.

 

[Patagonia]

Sakic is the person at fault. He made a crazy demand, expect other teams to be respectful and won't even make an effort to be flexible. This all Sakic and Inuse to live this guy, but he is totally responsible for the mess the team is undergoing.

 

[the_fan]

He didn't go public with it. The other GM's involved are fed up with his asking price and went to the media themselves. It is a power struggle. They are trying to ridicule Sakic, with his outlandish asking price. But they are angry because Duchene is a very good chip that there is a lot of interest in.

Even if that's the case, Sakic is gonna screw up big time unless Duchene resigns with the Avs. He has not been able to get what he wants so far and don't think that will change.

And if you were Duchene, after all this drama, would you resign with the Avs? The only way i see Duchene resigning is if by some miracle Avs become a playoff team next year, but lets face it, that's not happening. This team will be a last place team again, and i just don't see Duchene wanting to resign.

Another words, this whole Duchene situation has catastrophe written all over it.

 

[bohlmeister]

Even if that's the case, Sakic is gonna screw up big time unless Duchene resigns with the Avs. He has not been able to get what he wants so far and don't think that will change.

And if you were Duchene, after all this drama, would you resign with the Avs? The only way i see Duchene resigning is if by some miracle Avs become a playoff team next year, but lets face it, that's not happening. This team will be a last place team again, and i just don't see Duchene wanting to resign.

Another words, this whole Duchene situation has catastrophe written all over it.

If this all unravels the way you have described in your completely fabricated scenario, then yes. It would be a catastrophe.

As it stands now, Sakic is asking for a good package for a coveted player. That player still has 2 years left on his contract. And it is July 3rd.

 

[FourRings]

You don't trade an asset like Duchene for potential depth players only.

That sounds horrible..

You get 1st round picks + a high quality prospect + another decent piece if possible.

You never make a trade solely to acquire potential depth pieces IMO.

Slowly but surely it's looking like that ship has sailed.