Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part IV

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm really skeptical of that. In fact I'd say Karlsson has negative value. He's a 13th forward making $2 million for another two seasons. It just doesn't make any sense for a team to acquire that contract when they could just sign a superior UFA forward like Hansen, Colborne or Matthias for less money and likely a one-year term.

Of course you are because you've let it be known that your bias against Karlsson clouds your ability to be fair when it comes to assessing his value and abilities. A 13th forward is maybe what he should be on a good team. What he actually is though is a 10th or 11th forward that sees regular time in the top nine and produces about 20 points a season with bad advanced stats. Saying someone like Hansen is superior when he played less than him is shaky at best. Colborne wasn't even an NHL'er last season. Matthias played 27 games last year for the Jets and 45 the year before that. For a guy who in the last two seasons has played about as much as Karlsson did this season, it's hardly a good comparison to make. Karlsson is a proven regular in the lineup of a good team that produces relatively well. Those forwards aren't superior and wouldn't provide what Karlsson does even though I think he plays too much and had an awful season.

I'd put Melker Karlsson's value to be about what Tommy Wingels' value was in a trade. A couple minor leaguers and a 7th round pick.

 

[LA Shark]

Karlsson had a down year last year, but the hate has gone way too far. The idea that he is a 13th forward is crazy. Hes easily a solid 4th liner. He gets into trouble when PDB asks too much of him and puts him in the top 6. But as far as a 4th liner and PKer he is good for that role. Is 2 mil more than Id like to pay for him? Sure. But we aren't currently using that cap space, and if we need it, I have NO doubt we could move him. The return would be let's just say underwhelming. But we could absolutely move him without eating money.

 

[Maladroit]

I totally disagree about him being a negative value. The only reason he is a arguably the 13th forward on our team is because we are enamored by what our 'kids' could do and that they are cheaper than Karlsson. I think Karlsson gets way too much hate because of the amount of money he makes.

Without Karlsson what would our 4th line be?

Sorenson-Suomela-Gambrell/Goodrow

Suomela and Gambrell have played a combined 3 games in the NHL and have 0 points. Goodrow is decent and has a 0.24 PPG over the 124 games he has played. But Karlsson has been better with a PPG of 0.33 over his 256 games and has never had less than 19 points over a season. That is pretty damn good for a 4th liner. He draws a lot of penalties as well and is decent defensively. He has also been asked to play up and down in the line-up and has done so well enough.

So sure, you can make the argument that he makes a lot for a 4th liner but I think he is well worth that and would have decent value in a trade. While we think Suomela, Goodrow, Sorenson and Gambrell may make him redundant, that is still to be seen. Karlsson produces more than a any of them albeit at a higher salary.

This is nothing to do with whether I want Karlsson on the team or not. I would be ok losing him simply because we have enough kids to rotate between and hopefully find a cheaper replacement for his production. But I just don't buy the fact that Karlsson has negative value.

Even if he's an average fourth liner (which I seriously doubt based on last season, when he was one of the worst players drawing regular minutes in the NHL) it just doesn't make sense for any team to trade for a $4mil commitment to him over two years when they could sign any number of current UFAs for cheaper on a one-year deal. If a team is trading for Karlsson they would be sending salary back our way which is why I say he has negative value.

Karlsson's career points per game rate only looks half decent because he's inexplicably received tons of undeserved ice time with Thornton and Pavelski, especially earlier in his career. His points per game rate over the past two seasons is identical to what Goodrow put up in strictly fourth line minutes this past year, and Goodrow is also much better than Karlsson at every other aspect of the game. Suomela's Liiga numbers suggest he's a 40+ point player in the NHL. He won't hit that in a fourth line role but he clearly brings a lot more offense to the table than Karlsson.

 

[Maladroit]

Of course you are because you've let it be known that your bias against Karlsson clouds your ability to be fair when it comes to assessing his value and abilities. A 13th forward is maybe what he should be on a good team. What he actually is though is a 10th or 11th forward that sees regular time in the top nine and produces about 20 points a season with bad advanced stats. Saying someone like Hansen is superior when he played less than him is shaky at best. Colborne wasn't even an NHL'er last season. Matthias played 27 games last year for the Jets and 45 the year before that. For a guy who in the last two seasons has played about as much as Karlsson did this season, it's hardly a good comparison to make. Karlsson is a proven regular in the lineup of a good team that produces relatively well. Those forwards aren't superior and wouldn't provide what Karlsson does even though I think he plays too much and had an awful season.

I'd put Melker Karlsson's value to be about what Tommy Wingels' value was in a trade. A couple minor leaguers and a 7th round pick.

Among all forwards who played at least 500 even strength minutes last season Karlsson ranked 337th out of 367 in Corsi%. And unlike pretty much everyone else within spitting distance of him on that list he played for a good possession team. Karlsson was a decent player his first couple of seasons in the league and I honestly didn't even mind him getting second line time with Couture and Donskoi in the 2015-16 season. But he's fallen off a cliff and could be upgraded upon with any number of AHL caliber players at this point. You can talk about his trade value in a vacuum all you want but I see zero reason why any team would give up a positive value asset for this guy when they all have internal options who are a good bet to be at least as valuable as Karlsson and, if not, could sign a UFA forward who can do the job.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Karlsson had a down year last year, but the hate has gone way too far. The idea that he is a 13th forward is crazy. Hes easily a solid 4th liner. He gets into trouble when PDB asks too much of him and puts him in the top 6. But as far as a 4th liner and PKer he is good for that role. Is 2 mil more than Id like to pay for him? Sure. But we aren't currently using that cap space, and if we need it, I have NO doubt we could move him. The return would be let's just say underwhelming. But we could absolutely move him without eating money.

Exactly. And just because we have an overabundance of bottom-6 players that could 'potentially' replace Karlsson's production, it does not mean that other teams are in the same boat. People see that 2M AAV and him being linked to the 4th line and automatically hate him. Since we have no issues with cap right now, I am ok with him on the team. If we did have cap issues or needed to make more room, I have no doubt we could move him for a pick.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Among all forwards who played at least 500 even strength minutes last season Karlsson ranked 337th out of 367 in Corsi%. And unlike pretty much everyone else within spitting distance of him on that list he played for a good possession team. Karlsson was a decent player his first couple of seasons in the league and I honestly didn't even mind him getting second line time with Couture and Donskoi in the 2015-16 season. But he's fallen off a cliff and could be upgraded upon with any number of AHL caliber players at this point. You can talk about his trade value in a vacuum all you want but I see zero reason why any team would give up a positive value asset for this guy when they all have internal options who are a good bet to be at least as valuable as Karlsson and, if not, could sign a UFA forward who can do the job.

Because he scores 20 points a year as an upper 4th line player that kills penalties...that's why they would. You can point out possession stats until you're blue in the face but they're not the entirety of what determines a player's trade value. If the Sharks need to trade him, they will. At this point, they don't need to and it's not something to worry about. He may have a bounce back season from that standpoint since it'd be hard for him to be worse but history suggests that the Sharks could move him if they need to.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

@JoeThorntonsRooster was just having a discussion on the main boards about the prospect systems of the sharks vs. leafs in relation to a Panarin trade. One guy said the difference between Merkley and Sandin is negligible, and that is one of many reasons why I never post on the main boards.

I don’t think Maple Leafs fans are any more homerish than the rest of us. Any team with Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Tavares would have fans that are pretty cocky, and understandably so.

The problem I have with them is that there are so many of them, who insist on making every thread about them, and their victim mentality is so strong. I saw that top-10 forwards thread last night. I opened it, read the first few posts, and thought to myself “I would literally bet $500 that by the last page, this thread has devolved into a debate about Tavares and Matthews being top-10, with Leafs fans insisting that both of those players would be on every single list if they didn’t play for Toronto.” Sure enough, I got there, and that’s exactly what it was.

They are insistent that there is this anti-Leafs bias on this website and it’s hilariously inaccurate. Players like Patrick Marleau become twice as likely to be voted as a HOFer by this forum after they join Toronto, and players like Tavares perform the same in polls against players like Schiefele after joining Toronto. Yet, somehow, there is this massive hatred for the Leafs on this forum. It’s totally inaccurate and it’s a hilariously stupid victim mentality. This forum, on average, loves the Maple Leafs significantly more than any other team.

 

[Maladroit]

Because he scores 20 points a year as an upper 4th line player that kills penalties...that's why they would. You can point out possession stats until you're blue in the face but they're not the entirety of what determines a player's trade value. If the Sharks need to trade him, they will. At this point, they don't need to and it's not something to worry about. He may have a bounce back season from that standpoint since it'd be hard for him to be worse but history suggests that the Sharks could move him if they need to.

I'm not saying it's something to worry about at this point (although it would have been if we had landed Tavares) and I honestly think he would be fine as a fourth line RW with Sorensen and Suomela if that's how the lines shake out. At the end of the day though if no one was willing to give up assets for Matt Nieto, who was a significantly younger and better player making peanuts at the time we lost him on waivers, no one is giving up a pick for Karlsson without sending similarly useless salary back the other way.

 

[SnarkAttack]

Is there a good place to check where players scored their points. I looked at Dobber Hockey (have no clue if the site is accurate or not) and it showed that Karlsson scored all but one of his points last year in non-4th line minutes, including 5 with Hertl/Couture who he should be nowhere near in a good lineup.

 

[SnarkAttack]

I don’t think Maple Leafs fans are any more homerish than the rest of us. Any team with Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Tavares would have fans that are pretty cocky, and understandably so.

The problem I have with them is that there are so many of them, who insist on making every thread about them, and their victim mentality is so strong. I saw that top-10 forwards thread last night. I opened it, read the first few posts, and thought to myself “I would literally bet $500 that by the last page, this thread has devolved into a debate about Tavares and Matthews being top-10, with Leafs fans insisting that both of those players would be on every single list if they didn’t play for Toronto.” Sure enough, I got there, and that’s exactly what it was.

They are insistent that there is this anti-Leafs bias on this website and it’s hilariously inaccurate. Players like Patrick Marleau become twice as likely to be voted as a HOFer by this forum after they join Toronto, and players like Tavares perform the same in polls against players like Schiefele after joining Toronto. Yet, somehow, there is this massive hatred for the Leafs on this forum. It’s totally inaccurate and it’s a hilariously stupid victim mentality. This forum, on average, loves the Maple Leafs significantly more than any other team.

If there is a bias against them, it's more a self-fulfilling prophecy type effect.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Is there a good place to check where players scored their points. I looked at Dobber Hockey (have no clue if the site is accurate or not) and it showed that Karlsson scored all but one of his points last year in non-4th line minutes, including 5 with Hertl/Couture who he should be nowhere near in a good lineup.

Natural Stat Trick

In the regular season, Melker Karlsson scored no more than 1 point with any player who was a 4th liner.

In the playoffs, though, he scored 3 points with Sorensen and Fehr.

Nice observation. He totally needs to be jettisoned.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm not saying it's something to worry about at this point (although it would have been if we had landed Tavares) and I honestly think he would be fine as a fourth line RW with Sorensen and Suomela if that's how the lines shake out. At the end of the day though if no one was willing to give up assets for Matt Nieto, who was a significantly younger and better player making peanuts at the time we lost him on waivers, no one is giving up a pick for Karlsson without sending similarly useless salary back the other way.

The Nieto thing is not really a comparable. The Sharks weren't looking to trade Nieto.

 

[SnarkAttack]

Natural Stat Trick

In the regular season, Melker Karlsson scored no more than 1 point with any player who was a 4th liner.

In the playoffs, though, he scored 3 points with Sorensen and Fehr.

Nice observation. He totally needs to be jettisoned.

Thanks. It's hard to know what's accurate, and I hate making opinions based on bad data.

That's why I get all of my news from facebook and twitter

 

[boylerroom]

Just to chime in on Karlsson... he’s not useless or bad, he’s just easily replaceable. He does nothing specifically special that most entry level NHL players can do. So once he becomes more expensive, I’d just go younger. Just my 2cents.

 

[SnarkAttack]

Just to chime in on Karlsson... he’s not useless or bad, he’s just easily replaceable. He does nothing specifically special that most entry level NHL players can do. So once he becomes more expensive, I’d just go younger. Just my 2cents.

The issue is he IS more expensive. He's paid like a 3rd liner, performs like a 4th. It's not cap-breaking, but he is overpaid, and if a team wanted him I'd have no issue helping them out.

 

[Lebanezer]

I don’t think Maple Leafs fans are any more homerish than the rest of us. Any team with Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Tavares would have fans that are pretty cocky, and understandably so.

The problem I have with them is that there are so many of them, who insist on making every thread about them, and their victim mentality is so strong. I saw that top-10 forwards thread last night. I opened it, read the first few posts, and thought to myself “I would literally bet $500 that by the last page, this thread has devolved into a debate about Tavares and Matthews being top-10, with Leafs fans insisting that both of those players would be on every single list if they didn’t play for Toronto.” Sure enough, I got there, and that’s exactly what it was.

They are insistent that there is this anti-Leafs bias on this website and it’s hilariously inaccurate. Players like Patrick Marleau become twice as likely to be voted as a HOFer by this forum after they join Toronto, and players like Tavares perform the same in polls against players like Schiefele after joining Toronto. Yet, somehow, there is this massive hatred for the Leafs on this forum. It’s totally inaccurate and it’s a hilariously stupid victim mentality. This forum, on average, loves the Maple Leafs significantly more than any other team.

I’m amazed you even engage with them. It’s painful to read their posts.

 

[Used As A Shield]

I’m amazed you even engage with them. It’s painful to read their posts.

This.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I’m amazed you even engage with them. It’s painful to read their posts.

Yeah, I’ve decided I’ll stop. If it’s a thread about Toronto, I’ll discuss whatever is relevant in that thread. But I’m sick of this constant trend of HF revolving around the Leafs where a thread about Artemi Panarin where Elliott Friedman speculates that San Jose or Toronto could be interested suddenly turns into a pissing match between Leafs and Sharks fans by page 10. And if I give in, even just to tell them that they are clearly incorrect about something, then I am just as much a part of the problem.

Gotta stay on topic and ignore when they want to divert the course into how the Leafs are the best.

 

[Lebanezer]

Yeah, I’ve decided I’ll stop. If it’s a thread about Toronto, I’ll discuss whatever is relevant in that thread. But I’m sick of this constant trend of HF revolving around the Leafs where a thread about Artemi Panarin where Elliott Friedman speculates that San Jose or Toronto could be interested suddenly turns into a pissing match between Leafs and Sharks fans by page 10. And if I give in, even just to tell them that they are clearly incorrect about something, then I am just as much a part of the problem.

Gotta stay on topic and ignore when they want to divert the course into how the Leafs are the best.

It was weird to see someone say you were obsessed with the leafs. No one cares about the f***ing leafs but leafs fans. They take any negativity about their beloved team personally. They have zero perspective. Zero.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

It was weird to see someone say you were obsessed with the leafs. No one cares about the ****ing leafs but leafs fans. They take any negativity about their beloved team personally. They have zero perspective. Zero.

The funny thing is, sickening is a term of endearment. It comes from YouTube personality Jason Genova who was attempting to be a professional bodybuilder. Somebody replaced one of his famous quotes (“we don’t care about injuries, we’re freaks!”) with “We don’t care about a top-4 of Rielly-Hainsey-Gardiner-Zaitsev, we’re freaks!”. And I merely said that their defense was “sickening”. (A term of endearment that Genova generally used to use to refer to his own physique.) Because their victim mentality is so strong, they immediately get very defensive and believe they are being insulted.

And I already said earlier in the thread that they would be smart to acquire Panarin.

 

[hockeyball]

It was weird to see someone say you were obsessed with the leafs. No one cares about the ****ing leafs but leafs fans. They take any negativity about their beloved team personally. They have zero perspective. Zero.

They live in an echo chamber. Not even sarcasm.

 

[WTFetus]

The funny thing is, sickening is a term of endearment. It comes from YouTube personality Jason Genova who was attempting to be a professional bodybuilder. Somebody replaced one of his famous quotes (“we don’t care about injuries, we’re freaks!”) with “We don’t care about a top-4 of Rielly-Hainsey-Gardiner-Zaitsev, we’re freaks!”. And I merely said that their defense was “sickening”. (A term of endearment that Genova generally used to use to refer to his own physique.) Because their victim mentality is so strong, they immediately get very defensive and believe they are being insulted.

And I already said earlier in the thread that they would be smart to acquire Panarin.

No it doesn't. It comes from the actual dictionary definition of the word.
Just because one "celebrity" uses it as a possible form of endearment, that doesn't make it the standard definition, and you can't expect others to know what you meant.
I'm hardly one to back another team's fans, but that's not victim mentality in the slightest.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

No it doesn't. It comes from the actual dictionary definition of the word.
Just because one "celebrity" uses it as a possible form of endearment, that doesn't make it the standard definition, and you can't expect others to know what you meant.
I'm hardly one to back another team's fans, but that's not victim mentality in the slightest.

That’s a fair point. I forgot that it actually is a dictionary word and thought it was only a slang term created by this YouTube celebrity.

 

[Friday]

 

[PackShark]

Exactly. It doesn't necessarily reflect poorly on the organization. It's just, if you're Panarin and can pick where you want to live for the next seven years why the hell would you pick Columbus?

I saw the Sharks play in Columbus this past season. Not the most exciting place, but definitely far worst cities in the league to live in (Detroit, Buffalo). These guys are on the road half the year plus can go wherever in the offseason. That being said, I can see why Columbus wouldn’t be a top choice for a European player.