Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part IV

[Maladroit]

It's not really about owing the Islanders anything or not, it's about treating them with respect. Tavares himself admitted that he had made his decision long before they let anyone else know. It's the same thing with the other 4 teams he met with, they deserved to be told they were out of it. Tavares had every right to choose the Leafs, he earned that right, but he should have handled the situation better.

I don't think that the Maple Leafs are his best chance at winning a cup in the next 5 or 6 years, I think Tampa Bay would have been a better choice.

Weren't most reports that he didn't decide between NYI and TOR until late on Saturday night? I guess he could have told the other teams they were out of the running but maybe if the Sharks' mega-offer was off the table the Leafs would have tried to get him at $10mil/year or not offered the bonus structure he was looking for. Ultimately Tavares and his agent have to look out for their own interests not those of the Dallas Stars or Boston Bruins.

Tampa would have had to trade multiple pieces to fit him in though whereas the Leafs were able to add him without losing anybody in the short term. Ideally they'd be dumping guys like Callahan and Killorn but it's likely they would have needed to trade Tyler Johnson or an even more important player than that to fit Tavares and Kucherov in. Also the Lightning core of Stamkos/Kucherov/Hedman is significantly older than Matthews/Marner/Nylander - the Leafs are going to have at least five postseasons where their star players are at or close to their career peaks while the Lightning have already blown those years.

 

[Maladroit]

I wouldn't say he owes it to anyone, but the fans support you / spend their money on your merchandise / etc, if he knew he wasn't going back to NYI he could have left them in a much better situation (getting traded) vs telling them not to trade him. I don't think it's a big deal, but it obviously wasn't the most courteous way of going about it.

It's just nitpicking - but you can even say he led teams on while they missed out on other FAs. If he only had 2 teams in mind he was holding other teams hostage for his own leverage (smart). Plenty of guys are willing to tell teams when they have been crossed off the list

I get that but it sounds like he legitimately didn't decide to leave the Island until the 11th hour. So it makes sense that he wouldn't want them to trade him. Regardless it's 100% on management to tell Tavares and his agent that if they weren't willing to sign a contract extension with the Islanders by [insert summer 2017 deadline here] they were going to trade him. Fans should be mad at Garth Snow and Islanders ownership, not Tavares.

 

[Lebanezer]

Weren't most reports that he didn't decide between NYI and TOR until late on Saturday night? I guess he could have told the other teams they were out of the running but maybe if the Sharks' mega-offer was off the table the Leafs would have tried to get him at $10mil/year or not offered the bonus structure he was looking for. Ultimately Tavares and his agent have to look out for their own interests not those of the Dallas Stars or Boston Bruins.

Tampa would have had to trade multiple pieces to fit him in though whereas the Leafs were able to add him without losing anybody in the short term. Ideally they'd be dumping guys like Callahan and Killorn but it's likely they would have needed to trade Tyler Johnson or an even more important player than that to fit Tavares and Kucherov in. Also the Lightning core of Stamkos/Kucherov/Hedman is significantly older than Matthews/Marner/Nylander - the Leafs are going to have at least five postseasons where their star players are at or close to their career peaks while the Lightning have already blown those years.

I believe it was early Saturday he made the decision, and that the contract was getting finalized all day Saturday. I thought I read somewhere that he knew Friday or something, but I can't find it. But his player's tribune article made it clear those other 4 teams weren't being seriously considered.

You're right that Tavares and his agent don't have to worry about the Stars, Sharks, Bruins or Lightning, but they should have the courtesy to tell them if they aren't being seriously considered. It's the right thing to do and it shows respect. All those teams spent quite a bit of time with Tavares and his agent, worked on presentations etc.

Tampa unloading Callahan or Killorn isn't really that much different than Toronto losing JVR. Toronto did lose players off their roster, they just never planned on bringing them back, especially after getting Tavares. Also I think that even given their ages, having Hedman vs. no #1D on the Leafs is worth a lot. Stamkos, Kucherov and Hedman have also been consistently excellent for years and they have Point and Sergachev. I don't know, I just see more holes on the Leafs roster than the Lightning.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

lol at the idea that the Leafs give him the best chance at a Cup the next few years. That's not even close to true.

 

[DG93]

lol at the idea that the Leafs give him the best chance at a Cup the next few years. That's not even close to true.

This. They're not even the best team in their division and have a black hole on defense...

 

[Maladroit]

lol at the idea that the Leafs give him the best chance at a Cup the next few years. That's not even close to true.

Do they give him the best chance to win this year? No probably not. But the playoffs are so random that it would be stupid to hitch your wagon to whichever team looks like the best shot at the Cup the coming season or for the next two seasons especially given that he's signing a seven-year deal. I would love to know which team you believe has greater odds of winning a Cup over the next seven years than Toronto and why. I'm not saying they're guaranteed to win a Cup during the length of his contract but, while San Jose may have given him the best shot at the Cup next year and Tampa Bay over the next 2-3, no team provides him with as many high-level kicks at the can as the Leafs. Their best players are just now entering their primes while Tampa's are exiting theirs.

 

[DG93]

Do they give him the best chance to win this year? No probably not. But the playoffs are so random that it would be stupid to hitch your wagon to whichever team looks like the best shot at the Cup the coming season or for the next two seasons especially given that he's signing a seven-year deal. I would love to know which team you believe has greater odds of winning a Cup over the next seven years than Toronto and why. I'm not saying they're guaranteed to win a Cup during the length of his contract but, while San Jose may have given him the best shot at the Cup next year and Tampa Bay over the next 2-3, no team provides him with as many high-level kicks at the can as the Leafs. Their best players are just now entering their primes while Tampa's are exiting theirs.

Kucherov is 25, Stamkos is 28, Point is 22, Hedman is 27, Vasilevsky is 23, Palat is 27, Gourde is 26, Miller is 25, Sergachev is 20, and Johnson is 27. Stralman is 31 and McDonaugh is 29, so they are older, but most of their core won't be exiting its prime for another 4+ years.

 

[Barrie22]

Kucherov is 25, Stamkos is 28, Point is 22, Hedman is 27, Vasilevsky is 23, Palat is 27, Gourde is 26, Miller is 25, Sergachev is 20, and Johnson is 27. Stralman is 31 and McDonaugh is 29, so they are older, but most of their core won't be exiting its prime for another 4+ years.

And 90% of the core is locked up long term for low money.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Do they give him the best chance to win this year? No probably not. But the playoffs are so random that it would be stupid to hitch your wagon to whichever team looks like the best shot at the Cup the coming season or for the next two seasons especially given that he's signing a seven-year deal. I would love to know which team you believe has greater odds of winning a Cup over the next seven years than Toronto and why. I'm not saying they're guaranteed to win a Cup during the length of his contract but, while San Jose may have given him the best shot at the Cup next year and Tampa Bay over the next 2-3, no team provides him with as many high-level kicks at the can as the Leafs. Their best players are just now entering their primes while Tampa's are exiting theirs.

Tampa, easily. Toronto even with Tavares isn't getting out of the second round anytime soon.

 

[Maladroit]

Kucherov is 25, Stamkos is 28, Point is 22, Hedman is 27, Vasilevsky is 23, Palat is 27, Gourde is 26, Miller is 25, Sergachev is 20, and Johnson is 27. Stralman is 31 and McDonaugh is 29, so they are older, but most of their core won't be exiting its prime for another 4+ years.

Stamkos, Kucherov and Hedman are the only players on that list comparable to Matthews, Marner and Nylander and they're all anywhere from six to seven years older than the Leafs guys. I'm not saying Stamkos and Hedman are going to fall off a cliff in two years but given what we know about aging curves it's an extremely good bet that the Leafs trio will be more valuable and impactful players over the next seven years than the Bolts trio.

Tampa, easily. Toronto even with Tavares isn't getting out of the second round anytime soon.

They may not get out of the second round next year but there's no question their seven-year outlook is better than Tampa's just given the vast discrepancy in age of the teams' top players. Tampa also doesn't have a third forward (prior to adding Tavares) at the caliber of Marner or Nylander. Tavares is probably going to get to play with Marner in Toronto while the Stamkos/Kucherov top line means his linemates in Tampa would have been no better than what he had to work with on the Islanders.

 

[Barrie22]

Stamkos, Kucherov and Hedman are the only players on that list comparable to Matthews, Marner and Nylander and they're all anywhere from six to seven years older than the Leafs guys. I'm not saying Stamkos and Hedman are going to fall off a cliff in two years but given what we know about aging curves it's an extremely good bet that the Leafs trio will be more valuable and impactful players over the next seven years than the Bolts trio.



They may not get out of the second round next year but there's no question their seven-year outlook is better than Tampa's just given the vast discrepancy in age of the teams' top players. Tampa also doesn't have a third forward (prior to adding Tavares) at the caliber of Marner or Nylander. Tavares is probably going to get to play with Marner in Toronto while the Stamkos/Kucherov top line means his linemates in Tampa would have been no better than what he had to work with on the Islanders.

So your taking the sharks over the hawks of the past.

The leafs are there top 4 players in mathews, tavares, marner and kadri. Defense sucks, forward depth sucks, goaltending is average.

Tampa might have slightly worse top end players but that team is stacked from line 1 to line 4 and from top pairing to bottom pairing.

 

[Maladroit]

So your taking the sharks over the hawks of the past.

The leafs are there top 4 players in mathews, tavares, marner and kadri. Defense sucks, forward depth sucks, goaltending is average.

Tampa might have slightly worse top end players but that team is stacked from line 1 to line 4 and from top pairing to bottom pairing.

Toronto's forward depth sucks? What are you talking about? They have the best forward depth in the league. Nobody on Tampa's third line compares to Kadri and Marleau, who will likely be playing on Toronto's third line. Toronto's blueline is obviously the achilles heel of the team but it's nothing that isn't fixable with internal development and finding undervalued talent, both of which I would expect the Leafs' new progressive front office to excel at. Also unless they add Karlsson Tampa still has Dan Girardi in their top four who is considerably worse than any of the Leafs' defensemen.

 

[Dicdonya]

Kucherov is 25, Stamkos is 28, Point is 22, Hedman is 27, Vasilevsky is 23, Palat is 27, Gourde is 26, Miller is 25, Sergachev is 20, and Johnson is 27. Stralman is 31 and McDonaugh is 29, so they are older, but most of their core won't be exiting its prime for another 4+ years.

This, so much this. Tavares fits age wise far better with TB than Toronto. TB has every major piece for a cup run right now, Tavares would have been a cherry on top.

None of those key players (Kuch,Stamkos,Point,Hedman,Vasi) are going to be over the hill age wise by the time Tavares contract is up, and that core will compete for a cup every single year in that 7 year window minus major loss of players due to cap, which TB does a great job so far managing under Yzerman, or some sudden major decline of their players for no good reason.

I think it is pretty obvious why Tavares went to Tor. He wanted to play in Tor. Sure he wants to win a cup, and Tor has a chance to do that unlike NYI, but its pretty clear he followed his heart on this one, and was not looking for the absolute best chance at a cup.

 

[DG93]

Stamkos, Kucherov and Hedman are the only players on that list comparable to Matthews, Marner and Nylander and they're all anywhere from six to seven years older than the Leafs guys. I'm not saying Stamkos and Hedman are going to fall off a cliff in two years but given what we know about aging curves it's an extremely good bet that the Leafs trio will be more valuable and impactful players over the next seven years than the Bolts trio.

What about Point? He's the same age as Nylander and out-produced Nylander this year while playing a lot with Johnson and Miller/Palat (Stamkos/Kucherov being on the top line). Nylander played a ton with Mathews. I'd say those two are a wash. Kucherov is only 3 years older than Marner, and he's substantially better now and will likely be better than Marner for at least the next 3-4 years if not more. Stamkos is 8 years older than Matthews, so I definitely see why you'd give Matthews the long-term upgrade there. In terms of depth, I think Palat, Johnson, Gourde, and Miller are relatively comparable to Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, and Brown but I'll give the Leafs guys the edge there purely because of Kadri. Vasilevsky and Andersen are pretty similar but I think Vasi gets the edge there. Finally, it's obviously not even remotely close on defense. Hainsey and Girardi both suck, Gardiner and Sergachev are close, McDonaugh is much better than Rielly, Stralman is miles better than Zaitsev, and Toronto doesn't have anyone remotely close to Hedman. Tampa was the obvious choice imo.

 

[Maladroit]

What about Point? He's the same age as Nylander and out-produced Nylander this year while playing a lot with Johnson and Miller/Palat (Stamkos/Kucherov being on the top line). Nylander played a ton with Mathews. I'd say those two are a wash. Kucherov is only 3 years older than Marner, and he's substantially better now and will likely be better than Marner for at least the next 3-4 years if not more. Stamkos is 8 years older than Matthews, so I definitely see why you'd give Matthews the long-term upgrade there. In terms of depth, I think Palat, Johnson, Gourde, and Miller are relatively comparable to Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, and Brown but I'll give the Leafs guys the edge there purely because of Kadri. Vasilevsky and Andersen are pretty similar but I think Vasi gets the edge there. Finally, it's obviously not even remotely close on defense. Hainsey and Girardi both suck, Gardiner and Sergachev are close, McDonaugh is much better than Rielly, Stralman is miles better than Zaitsev, and Toronto doesn't have anyone remotely close to Hedman. Tampa was the obvious choice imo.

Tampa has less than $3 million in cap space right now. Even if they'd somehow managed to move out useless overpaid guys like Callahan, Coburn and Girardi they would have barely been able to fit Tavares in at $11 million and it would have been almost impossible to make the cap work while keeping all their players next year with Kucherov doubling his salary, Point needing a new contract in the $6 million range and Gourde and Stralman becoming UFAs in need of new deals as well. Sure you can start trading guys like Johnson, Killorn and Miller to free up that space but at that point you're losing actual valuable depth and becoming less competitive.

If Tavares wanted the best possible shot at the 2019 Stanley Cup then absolutely Tampa or the Sharks were the obvious choices. But Toronto is set up much better long term both in terms of the age of their core and their cap situation.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

They may not get out of the second round next year but there's no question their seven-year outlook is better than Tampa's just given the vast discrepancy in age of the teams' top players. Tampa also doesn't have a third forward (prior to adding Tavares) at the caliber of Marner or Nylander. Tavares is probably going to get to play with Marner in Toronto while the Stamkos/Kucherov top line means his linemates in Tampa would have been no better than what he had to work with on the Islanders.

No it isn't because Toronto doesn't have a blue line to compare. Tampa is easily the better team. They're still a better built team with more balance. Toronto has four high quality forwards and that's it. That's not enough come playoff time.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Why does he owe the Islanders anything though? It's not like he was some diamond in the rough prospect who the Isles took a chance on, he was literally the first overall pick. If it wasn't the Isles picking first that year some other team would have taken him there. He was forced to spend the first seven years of his career with the Isles by virtue of a ping pong ball and they were completely incapable of building a competent team around him despite him signing a sweetheart second contract. Honestly teams never show the slightest bit of loyalty to their players. P.K. Subban was traded days before his NTC kicked in, after nearly a decade of being an exemplary player and person on and off the ice for Montreal. NHL players have such little leverage, especially compared to other pro sports, and I just can't blame them for using what little they have to the full extent.

Best content you have ever posted.

The whole architecture of the league is set up to rob players of money. Term limits. Max compensation. A salary cap. Restricted free agency. An essentially compulsatory entry draft. All these vitiate a player's options.

Yet when a player tries to exercise whatever power he has, people pile on him for being greedy or unprofessional. I am sure that in the back of their minds, all the NHL owners are hoping that the criticism Tavares has received makes future players more "professional".

 

[Maladroit]

Best content you have ever posted.

The whole architecture of the league is set up to rob players of money. Term limits. Max compensation. A salary cap. Restricted free agency. An essentially compulsatory entry draft. All these vitiate a player's options.

Yet when a player tries to exercise whatever power he has, people pile on him for being greedy or unprofessional. I am sure that in the back of their minds, all the NHL owners are hoping that the criticism Tavares has received makes future players more "professional".

I'm hoping the PA goes for the owners' throats next September. Abolish the salary cap and contract term limits, lower UFA age to 23 or 5 years of service, grant players salary arbitration rights immediately coming off their ELCs. They won't get all of that but they ought to try and based on recent comments Don Fehr has made about his dissatisfaction with the cap I think they will.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Best content you have ever posted.

The whole architecture of the league is set up to rob players of money. Term limits. Max compensation. A salary cap. Restricted free agency. An essentially compulsatory entry draft. All these vitiate a player's options.

Yet when a player tries to exercise whatever power he has, people pile on him for being greedy or unprofessional. I am sure that in the back of their minds, all the NHL owners are hoping that the criticism Tavares has received makes future players more "professional".

Tavares isn't unprofessional because he was exercising whatever power he has. He was unprofessional to put four teams through a process he had no intention of actually considering. His article was just to assuage his guilt but I wouldn't call it unprofessional. I'd just call it meaningless rhetoric and fluffy BS in a laughable attempt to try and make it better but really just make himself feel better. All that stuff you talk about the architecture were collectively bargained for so to pretend like that is robbing them is silly. If the cap doesn't exist, the league won't exist in its current form with a structure that allows more teams to be viable which means more stable jobs. The other things are part of the price they pay to have more jobs and continue to have guaranteed contracts. Don't act like they didn't get anything out of that deal.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm hoping the PA goes for the owners' throats next September. Abolish the salary cap and contract term limits, lower UFA age to 23 or 5 years of service, grant players salary arbitration rights immediately coming off their ELCs. They won't get all of that but they ought to try and based on recent comments Don Fehr has made about his dissatisfaction with the cap I think they will.

The PA doesn't have anywhere close to that kind of leverage. The PA needs to actually come to the table at a reasonable time and hammer a deal out because public opinion is not going to side with them if they try to ask for those things. The deal that they have now with the league should be agreeable by and large to both sides. Nobody should have a hill to die on in this round and if someone on either side makes one up, the public will turn on them and that's bad for both sides.

 

[rangerssharks414]

All of this Tavares talk is making me sad.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Kucherov>Matthews
Stamkos>Marner
Point>Nylander

Tampa Bay is better up front, whether you consider their big 3 or their top-12; especially in a scenario where Tavares is choosing between teams and neither roster has him yet.

Toronto had to lose JVR and Bozak to sign Tavares, while Toronto would have had to lose Johnson and Callahan. Toronto literally had to lose more effective players in order to pay Tavares less money than he would have made in Tampa after taxes.

On top of that, the respective defense cores of each team make this argument a joke. Sergachev and Stralman are the 3rd and 4th best defensemen on Tampa Bay and both just might be Toronto’s best defenseman if they joined them next year. Hedman and McDonagh are also undoubtedly leagues above Morgan Rielly.

There is no way in which Toronto was the best objective choice. The only thing that Toronto offered, that nobody else could, was that they were his hometown team. They didn’t offer him the most money after taxes, and they didn’t offer him the best chance at winning. He completely shunned the teams that offered him the most money and the best chance at winning, and ended up narrowing the list down to his childhood team and the team that drafted him; neither of whom were the best objective choices.

It was a dick move to string along Dallas, San Jose, Tampa, and Boston when he obviously had no real interest in signing with any of them. The whole process was a joke, reminiscent of the NBA, and it looks bad on the 4 GMs that were stalked and photographed at a meeting with a player who had absolutely no interest in signing with them.

 

[Maladroit]

Tavares isn't unprofessional because he was exercising whatever power he has. He was unprofessional to put four teams through a process he had no intention of actually considering. His article was just to assuage his guilt but I wouldn't call it unprofessional. I'd just call it meaningless rhetoric and fluffy BS in a laughable attempt to try and make it better but really just make himself feel better. All that stuff you talk about the architecture were collectively bargained for so to pretend like that is robbing them is silly. If the cap doesn't exist, the league won't exist in its current form with a structure that allows more teams to be viable which means more stable jobs. The other things are part of the price they pay to have more jobs and continue to have guaranteed contracts. Don't act like they didn't get anything out of that deal.

You're just parroting blatantly pro-owner propaganda here. The NHL existed without a salary cap for more than 80 years and was actually doing better relative to the NFL and NBA in terms of revenue back then than it is now. Major League Baseball has never had a salary cap and continues to have financially viable franchises in smaller markets without any labor strife. Sure, hockey is less popular than baseball but if there are four teams in Toronto instead of teams in Glendale, Sunrise and Raleigh, who cares? Almost no one wants to play in those cities or watch those teams anyway.

The NHL can absolutely have a thriving 30-team league if around 75% of HRR is going to the players (which is around what the figure was in the pre-cap free market system) instead of an artificially capped 50%. If an owner can't "afford" to keep operating a team under those conditions too bad. No one has a right to own a NHL team. And if there isn't a single person in the world willing to operate a NHL team in that city then that's a shame but it's the cost of doing business. No one has ever paid a dollar to watch Daryl Katz or Ted Leonsis - they pay to see Connor McDavid and Alex Ovechkin and those are the people who deserve a lion's share of the revenue generated.

 

[hockeyball]

You're just parroting blatantly pro-owner propaganda here. The NHL existed without a salary cap for more than 80 years and was actually doing better relative to the NFL and NBA in terms of revenue back then than it is now. Major League Baseball has never had a salary cap and continues to have financially viable franchises in smaller markets without any labor strife. Sure, hockey is less popular than baseball but if there are four teams in Toronto instead of teams in Glendale, Sunrise and Raleigh, who cares? Almost no one wants to play in those cities or watch those teams anyway.

The NHL can absolutely have a thriving 30-team league if around 75% of HRR is going to the players (which is around what the figure was in the pre-cap free market system) instead of an artificially capped 50%. If an owner can't "afford" to keep operating a team under those conditions too bad. No one has a right to own a NHL team. And if there isn't a single person in the world willing to operate a NHL team in that city then that's a shame but it's the cost of doing business. No one has ever paid a dollar to watch Daryl Katz or Ted Leonsis - they pay to see Connor McDavid and Alex Ovechkin and those are the people who deserve a lion's share of the revenue generated.

Eh, those also are not the people taking any of the risk, putting up any of the capitol, funding the shortages during the losing seasons... etc, etc. I dunno if I buy that.

 

[Maladroit]

Eh, those also are not the people taking any of the risk, putting up any of the capitol, funding the shortages during the losing seasons... etc, etc. I dunno if I buy that.

But there would be no capital in the first place without the players. Franchises have no value if the league isn't populated by players who customers are willing to pay large amounts of money to see and who TV networks are willing to pay even larger amounts of money to broadcast. All value is generated by the players.