Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part IV

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm just curious, what is the definition of a 1C in your minds? Obviously, there aren't 31 1Cs in the league, but I just want to know what you folks think.

On average, over the past 10 seasons, the #1C on the Stanley Cup winning team has either:

Scored 70 points, and been a perennial Selke candidate who had already won or who went on to win at least one Selke in their career.

Or

Scored 90 points.

These are the exact averages lol.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm just curious, what is the definition of a 1C in your minds? Obviously, there aren't 31 1Cs in the league, but I just want to know what you folks think.

On average, over the past 10 seasons, the #1C on the Stanley Cup winning team has either:

Scored 70 points, and been a perennial Selke candidate who had already won or who went on to win at least one Selke in their career.

Or

Scored 90 points

Here is a list I posted in another thread:

If you really want a list, I would say that in this past year:

McDavid
Malkin
MacKinnon
Crosby
Kopitar
Barzal
Kuznetsov
Couturier
Barkov
Tavares
Schiefele
Seguin
Stamkos
Backstrom
Getzlaf
Bergeron

Were all Stanley Cup caliber #1Cs. Auston Matthews, Eric Staal, and William Karlsson produced at #1C level in the regular season, but their playoff performance was absolutely not at that level and there are reasons to question the long term sustainability of their regular season performances. Jack Eichel is damn close as well but I need to see him play a full season, score at least 80 points, and prove he can maintain that performance in the playoffs as well. Getzlaf was terrible in the playoffs but he gets a pass because he’s been historically strong there and because he was great in the regular season.

Rather than nitpicking a player or 2 you might or might not agree with, take a more general look at the caliber of players included here and compare them to Schenn/ROR. Those guys are clearly a notch below.



Doesn’t look like it.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Toe mosh hurdle can be a #1 center...And I mean that.

 

[tiburon12]

On average, over the past 10 seasons, the #1C on the Stanley Cup winning team has either:

Scored 70 points, and been a perennial Selke candidate who had already won or who went on to win at least one Selke in their career.

Or

Scored 90 points

Here is a list I posted in another thread:

Don't you think the jury is still out on Barzal as 1C? he wasn't one last year, and that was his only year in the league.

Interesting stats you pulled though. not very optimistic for us though :/

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Don't you think the jury is still out on Barzal as 1C? he wasn't one last year, and that was his only year in the league.

Interesting stats you pulled though. not very optimistic for us though :/

I think that’s the level that Barzal was at last year, had he got into the playoffs and been unable to perform at that level, I would probably not say he was. But Barzal just had an absolutely amazing season. I’m a little impartial to Barzal if nobody has noticed. I could see an argument that Barzal hasn’t proven himself to be at that level though.

He may not have “been the #1C” in terms of duties, but he significantly out-performed Tavares and was his team’s best center. And, similar to Malkin and Backstrom, playing as the #2C on a team doesn’t mean that a player isn’t an elite #1C caliber player.

And yeah, the numbers are pretty creepy with how they are the exact averages. I pro-rated Toews’ 2013 season to say he scored 83 points in 82 games (the season was shortened, he was not injured), but yeah. The numbers almost seem like some numbers I would just throw out there as a “rough requirement” but they just so happen to be the exact average of what we’ve seen over the past 10 years

 

[tiburon12]

I think that’s the level that Barzal was at last year, had he got into the playoffs and been unable to perform at that level, I would probably not say he was. But Barzal just had an absolutely amazing season. I’m a little impartial to Barzal if nobody has noticed. I could see an argument that Barzal hasn’t proven himself to be at that level though.

He may not have “been the #1C” in terms of duties, but he significantly out-performed Tavares and was his team’s best center. And, similar to Malkin and Backstrom, playing as the #2C on a team doesn’t mean that a player isn’t an elite #1C caliber player.

And yeah, the numbers are pretty creepy with how they are the exact averages. I pro-rated Toews’ 2013 season to say he scored 83 points in 82 games (the season was shortened, he was not injured), but yeah. The numbers almost seem like some numbers I would just throw out there as a “rough requirement” but they just so happen to be the exact average of what we’ve seen over the past 10 years

Yes, agree Barzal was there last year, and agree with those comparables. My only hangup on him is that we only have a single season of data. For all we know he could be a 100pt player or a 40pt player next year (odds are closer to the former, but still). Basically, too early to place him in that category of 1c for me, though that could change within the first two months of the season haha.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Yes, agree Barzal was there last year, and agree with those comparables. My only hangup on him is that we only have a single season of data. For all we know he could be a 100pt player or a 40pt player next year (odds are closer to the former, but still). Basically, too early to place him in that category of 1c for me, though that could change within the first two months of the season haha.

Yeah that’s fair, but I’m just particularly impressed by Barzal so I have no qualms with listing him there as I have no doubt his performance will be sustained over the long term. I understand being cautious of listing him there, but I just don’t see him not maintaining this level of performance.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I'm just curious, what is the definition of a 1C in your minds? Obviously, there aren't 31 1Cs in the league, but I just want to know what you folks think.

The way to think about it is how competitive are you? Plenty of teams in the 80s had franchise-caliber centers, but that meant nothing when the Oilers had Gretzky. He gave Edmonton such a massive advantage at that position that you would need a significant edge elsewhere to beat them.

If the other teams are trotting out Crosby, McDavid, or Kopitar while you have Logan Couture, and they all play to expectations, you need a massive edge elsewhere to be able to win. A far superior goaltender, a far superior top-defenseman, insanely better depth, coaching, etc.

If the Sharks had Carey Price in net and prime Lidstrom on defense, then going into the season with Couture as your top center *might* be acceptable.

 

[tiburon12]

Yeah that’s fair, but I’m just particularly impressed by Barzal so I have no qualms with listing him there as I have no doubt his performance will be sustained over the long term. I understand being cautious of listing him there, but I just don’t see him not maintaining this level of performance.

Let's hope so for our sake (when he hits UFA and inevitably leaves the Islanders)

 

[JackSkellington]

We sign or trade for any big name yet????? Im personally not content with the team going in, it wont beat Nashville or Winnipeg as currently constructed unless we have guys playing out of their minds. But its easier said then done for DW to add a difference maker

 

[Jaleel619]

On Erik Karlsson...

Ottawa is at least "telling" people they can keep him and not move him. This is their way of essentially pretending to "walk out of the dealership" in hopes that a sales person grabs them and says, "Wait, let me talk to my manager."

* The Lightning are still the favorite, but not by much. I earlier wrote, and continue to hear, that Tampa has put a deadline on this and is waiting on Ottawa to sweeten the pot.
* Dallas is looking at Skinner...
* Vegas hasn't shown half the interest they did at the trade deadline...

However, a new team is emerging: San Jose...I am keeping an eye on them.

We're still in this!

 

[WSS11]

On Erik Karlsson...

Ottawa is at least "telling" people they can keep him and not move him. This is their way of essentially pretending to "walk out of the dealership" in hopes that a sales person grabs them and says, "Wait, let me talk to my manager."

* The Lightning are still the favorite, but not by much. I earlier wrote, and continue to hear, that Tampa has put a deadline on this and is waiting on Ottawa to sweeten the pot.
* Dallas is looking at Skinner...
* Vegas hasn't shown half the interest they did at the trade deadline...

However, a new team is emerging: San Jose...I am keeping an eye on them.

We're still in this!

Who is the source on this?

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Who is the source on this?

That was Eklund. Its on his Hockey Buzz site/twitter account.

 

[Maladroit]

Who is the source on this?

Eklund lol

 

[WSS11]

I’d be more excited if one of you posted that rumor and said the rumor came from your dog

 

[Kcoyote3]

I’d be more excited if one of you posted that rumor and said the rumor came from your dog

My dog actually said we were out of the running. She then shit on the floor, meaning he's going to Toronto.

 

[The Great John Scott]

My dog actually said we were out of the running. She then **** on the floor, meaning he's going to Toronto.

But does your dog have a website? I'd believe it if it were on a website.

 

[WSS11]

Good deal, now pump your dog with some Dulcolax and see if you can get some intel on Panarin, Skinner, and MaxPac

 

[Lebanezer]

Why does Eklund even get a header on this site? He’s not a legitimate source. There are dozens of supposed rumor mongers on twitter and the internet. Why don’t they have headers? Every time I see one of his rumors I cringe because people just make fun of him and then bicker about the ridiculousness of what he says.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Why does Eklund even get a header on this site? He’s not a legitimate source. There are dozens of supposed rumor mongers on twitter and the internet. Why don’t they have headers? Every time I see one of his rumors I cringe because people just make fun of him and then bicker about the ridiculousness of what he says.

He is literally living off of the time he broke the Mike Richards and Jeff Carter trades over 7 years ago.

 

[Used As A Shield]

Why does Eklund even get a header on this site? He’s not a legitimate source. There are dozens of supposed rumor mongers on twitter and the internet. Why don’t they have headers? Every time I see one of his rumors I cringe because people just make fun of him and then bicker about the ridiculousness of what he says.

Wasn't it so we knew not to take his rumors seriously?

 

[stator]

There's a lot of overly simplistic points being made lately. For me, this team may have missed out on a #1 center but I have confidence that at least for next year Thornton will suffice in the role so I'm going to go look at the other spots on this roster that could be addressed to make this team as competitive as possible next season within reason. I think that at this point, it means only acquiring someone like Faulk and improving on what DeMelo brought. I think everything else is workable to go into next season with and if it fails can be addressed at the deadline. The players I think that are at risk for a fall-off is really just Labanc up front and I assume Ryan on defense assuming Faulk is acquired to push DeMelo out of the lineup. If DeMelo isn't pushed out of the lineup, he is absolutely a risk for a fall-off.

Kane-Thornton-Pavelski
Couture-Hertl-Labanc
Meier-Tierney-Donskoi
Sorensen/Radil-Suomela/Praplan/Gambrell/Letunov-Goodrow/Karlsson

Vlasic-Braun
Ryan-Burns
Dillon-DeMelo/acquisition

Jones-Dell

That's probably our lineup right now. It's a playoff team most likely but not a 4 round team unless they get some luck with health and some great years out of certain guys.

Your outlook on the Sharks next season seems to revolve around Thornton being able to play nearly 80 games.

So let's say that Thornton is out for 30 games. What does your line up and depth look like, and how do you feel about it being a SCF capable one?

The Sharks would be thin on centers again if so. More acute if PDB doesn't what to break apart Hertl and Couture. Maybe Tierney will continue to have another career best season, but I would not take that to the bank. I don't think he'll fade as much as Las Vegas who I see as fighting for a playoff spot through much of the season.

Bowed out in the 2nd round to a team that really wasnt very great. Better than a 1st round exit, but still had no real chance at a cup.

Overall, I thought the Sharks were the better team over Las Vegas on lines and pairings, but not the coach behind the bench or the goalie in front of the net. PDB did a horrible job preparing the team for the series, and consequently was playing catchup.

On Erik Karlsson...

I would advice DW to stay away from blockbuster trades like EK, Duchene, and Panarin. The price will be too high and gut Sharks. Plus, I think Duchene next contract will come at too high of a price. Panarin's would be even higher.

I'm more onboard spending that kind of dough on an offer sheet to Matthews, and give up the 4 1st round picks. I think the Maple Leafs are susceptible in that regard. Signing Tavares as if he's a career center like Thornton exposed them. Tavares will never have the career equal to Jumbo, but Matthews might.

 

[Jaleel619]

I don't know if Matthews would sign for another team, wasn't it reported he was trying to get Doughty to join the leafs?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Your outlook on the Sharks next season seems to revolve around Thornton being able to play nearly 80 games.

So let's say that Thornton is out for 30 games. What does your line up and depth look like, and how do you feel about it being a SCF capable one?

The Sharks would be thin on centers again if so. More acute if PDB doesn't what to break apart Hertl and Couture. Maybe Tierney will continue to have another career best season, but I would not take that to the bank. I don't think he'll fade as much as Las Vegas who I see as fighting for a playoff spot through much of the season.

I’m not worried about jumbos health. He’ll be fine but if some other freak injury occurs they will do what they did last year if none of the prospects step up. The team will be fine during the season if they lose Thornton for a length of time.

 

[Mattb124]

Eklund is the Kardashian of hockey - never done a thing but for some reason is still inexplicably relevant.

Thornton is an ironman unless his ACL's are partially torn. I am not thinking he will pick up where he left off at 39 + 2 knee surgeries, but the notion he may miss 30 games is not well-grounded. We traded Boedker, so the probability of it happening again automatically reduced by ~50%.