Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part IV

[STL Shark]

I’m sorry, why exactly is the Couture contract not a problem? He has notably declined since his 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 seasons. It has been a steady trend of decline over the course of 4 seasons now and he has been injured in every one of the last 3 seasons. I’m not saying he sucks, but he is not quite as good as he once was. The contract also doesn’t even kick in until he is 30 years old and it takes him until he turns age 38 $8M with a 3 team no-trade list. How on earth is that contract not a problem?

The Couture contract is a terrible contract. There was absolutely need to immediately lock up a player of his caliber in their age 30-37 seasons to such a high rate as soon as possible. It’s not as bad as the Kane, Vlasic, or Jones contracts, but it’s still pretty ****ing bad.



Are we talking SCF runs or SCF wins?

Drew Doughty and Steven Stamkos were the top-2 draft picks ten years ago. Tampa picked Victor Hedman a year later and Tampa has made 3 ECF and 1 SCF with those guys and will probably win the SCF next year. Seth Jones indirectly contributed to Nashville’s SCF run the same way Brayden Schenn did to LA’s win by returning a key piece in trade. Also, I realize I am Mr. “Cups are everything”, but McDavid/Draisaitl and Matthews/Marner were both back to back top-5 picks who have both carried their franchise out of the treacherous trenches in which they appeared stuck.

With that said, tanking isn’t a fool proof road to victory. Never said it was. But you almost certainly need to tank to win at this point.

What treacherous trench has Edmonton been carried out of? They have been 6th in the lowly pacific in 2/3 years that the two of them have been together and show no signs of being much better this year with the roster around them.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I’m sorry, why exactly is the Couture contract not a problem? He has notably declined since his 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 seasons. It has been a steady trend of decline over the course of 4 seasons now and he has been injured in every one of the last 3 seasons. I’m not saying he sucks, but he is not quite as good as he once was. The contract also doesn’t even kick in until he is 30 years old and it takes him until he turns age 38 $8M with a 3 team no-trade list. How on earth is that contract not a problem?

The Couture contract is a terrible contract. There was absolutely need to immediately lock up a player of his caliber in their age 30-37 seasons to such a high rate as soon as possible. It’s not as bad as the Kane, Vlasic, or Jones contracts, but it’s still pretty ****ing bad.

I'm not going to say I like the contract, but how the hell do you say he has declined? He's had his 2 best seasons since the 13-14 season yet he has steadily declined? Not to mention he has been great in the playoffs since the season he notably declined. It's fine to be upset that Couture will be making 8 Million as a 36-38 year old but don't just say blatantly false things to make your argument sound better.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'm not going to say I like the contract, but how the hell do you say he has declined? He's had his 2 best seasons since the 13-14 season yet he has steadily declined? Not to mention he has been great in the playoffs since the season he notably declined. It's fine to be upset that Couture will be making 8 Million as a 36-38 year old but don't just say blatantly false things to make your argument sound better.

He has declined a lot defensively. He was a legitimate Selke candidate in 2014. His offense definitely hasn’t declined, but his ability to drive play and shut down top forwards well has.

 

[Sharksrule04]

He has declined a lot defensively. He was a legitimate Selke candidate in 2014. His offense definitely hasn’t declined, but his ability to drive play and shut down top forwards well has.

I won't disagree that defensively he has declined.

 

[do0glas]

He has declined a lot defensively. He was a legitimate Selke candidate in 2014. His offense definitely hasn’t declined, but his ability to drive play and shut down top forwards well has.

Hes never driven play. And many here, including you refused to believe his defensive prowess then attributing it to marleau. Its revisionist now to prop up his defensive game so you csn say its declined now.

 

[Maladroit]

Hes never driven play. And many here, including you refused to believe his defensive prowess then attributing it to marleau. Its revisionist now to prop up his defensive game so you csn say its declined now.

Yeah it's no coincidence Couture's Selke-worthy seasons came when he was attached at the hip to Marleau. What's frustrating is that DeBoer continues to give him the toughest matchups and he just gets drilled in them. Same with the Vlasic-Braun pairing the past two seasons. At some point DeBoer needs to realize it isn't 2016 anymore and he can't rely on those players in that role. There might not be anyone better suited to tough matchups on the roster but the solution imo is just to pretty much roll lines and not worry too much about line matching.

 

[do0glas]

Yeah it's no coincidence Couture's Selke-worthy seasons came when he was attached at the hip to Marleau. What's frustrating is that DeBoer continues to give him the toughest matchups and he just gets drilled in them. Same with the Vlasic-Braun pairing the past two seasons. At some point DeBoer needs to realize it isn't 2016 anymore and he can't rely on those players in that role. There might not be anyone better suited to tough matchups on the roster but the solution imo is just to pretty much roll lines and not worry too much about line matching.

I don't feel like looking at goal diff over those years, or sa60 to see if its declined bur regardless of how good cooch is defensively, there is a big drop from marleau to labanc

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm not going to say I like the contract, but how the hell do you say he has declined? He's had his 2 best seasons since the 13-14 season yet he has steadily declined? Not to mention he has been great in the playoffs since the season he notably declined. It's fine to be upset that Couture will be making 8 Million as a 36-38 year old but don't just say blatantly false things to make your argument sound better.

How are these his two best seasons since 2013-2014?

His PPG:


2013: 0.77
2014: 0.83
2015: 0.82

3-Year Average: 0.81

DECLINE

2016: 0.69
2017: 0.71
2018: 0.78

3-Year Average: 0.74

I won't disagree that defensively he has declined.

If you won’t disagree that he has declined defensively, and the statistics point to him declining offensively, then how on earth am I saying “blatantly false things” just to make my argument sound better?

 

[Juxtaposer]

Hes never driven play. And many here, including you refused to believe his defensive prowess then attributing it to marleau. Its revisionist now to prop up his defensive game so you csn say its declined now.

I argued excessively for Couture’s Selke-caliber play in 2014. Perhaps you’re mis-remembering.

 

[Lebanezer]

The season cannot get here fast enough.

 

[WTFetus]

How are these his two best seasons since 2013-2014?

His PPG:


2013: 0.77
2014: 0.83
2015: 0.82

3-Year Average: 0.81

DECLINE

2016: 0.69
2017: 0.71
2018: 0.78

3-Year Average: 0.74

How is going from .69 to .71 to .78 a "steady decline"?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

How is going from .69 to .71 to .78 a "steady decline"?

Over the course of 3 years, his 3-year average is less than it was in the prior 3 years.

 

[WTFetus]

Over the course of 3 years, his 3-year average is less than it was in the prior 3 years.

Yeah, improving his ppg for the last 2 years isn't a steady decline in the slightest

 

[Lebanezer]

Over the course of 3 years, his 3-year average is less than it was in the prior 3 years.

Why wouldn't you include his playoff performance in those numbers?

PPG in those time periods including playoffs:
2012-13: .813
2013-14: .792
2014-15: .817
2015-16: .868
2016-17: .655
2017-18: .83

2016-17 was a bad year even before his face was destroyed, but 2015-16 and 2017-18 were his most productive seasons overall.

 

[209]

Holy f*** knobs people - you are bored...LOL Enjoy what you have. You could be in a town with a really shitty hockey team but you aren't. You have a team that competes for the Stanley Cup every year. I want this team to win the cup just like the rest of you but the ad nauseum of what some of you people write is just ridiculous. Appreciate what you have or go to Vancouver, Ottawa or some other shit-hole hockey team.

 

[LA Shark]

Over the course of 3 years, his 3-year average is less than it was in the prior 3 years.

That wouldn't really be a steady decline. It's more like he had a steep decline between 2015 and 2016 and has been building back up each year since. And like Lebanezer said, why wouldn't playoff points count? They are games against nothing but solid competition, they absolutely should count. I'm not saying I love the Couture contract, but I dont think you can say hes been "steadily declining" either. Defensively is a different conversation.

 

[Sharksrule04]

How are these his two best seasons since 2013-2014?

His PPG:


2013: 0.77
2014: 0.83
2015: 0.82

3-Year Average: 0.81

DECLINE

2016: 0.69
2017: 0.71
2018: 0.78

3-Year Average: 0.74



If you won’t disagree that he has declined defensively, and the statistics point to him declining offensively, then how on earth am I saying “blatantly false things” just to make my argument sound better?

You said "He has notably declined since his 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 seasons. It has been a steady trend of decline over the course of 4 seasons now and he has been injured in every one of the last 3 seasons". His career high in goals was last season and 2 of the 3 career highs in points were during the supposed decline period of notable decline. Also are you going to ignore his playoff performances?

 

[rangerssharks414]

Holy **** knobs people - you are bored...LOL Enjoy what you have. You could be in a town with a really ****ty hockey team but you aren't. You have a team that competes for the Stanley Cup every year. I want this team to win the cup just like the rest of you but the ad nauseum of what some of you people write is just ridiculous. Appreciate what you have or go to Vancouver, Ottawa or some other ****-hole hockey team.

Nope. Tank or bust.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

After taking playoffs into account, I suppose it is fair to say that Couture has not declined offensively; at least not significantly enough for us to say it is already a problem.

However, his increased rate of injuries is still concerning, and his defensive game has declined significantly enough for us to say it is a problem.

In addition, he is overpaid for what he is right now. There are what, 25 players in the NHL making over $8M? Maybe there will be 40 in 2019-2020 when this contract kicks in? Couture is a center who is not elite defensively, and he is 82nd in the NHL in points over the past 3 seasons, and 43rd in goals. Why on earth should he be in the top-50 of highest paid players?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Increased rate of injury? He had two flukes happen to him. None of the injuries he has suffered in the past few years are things you worry about getting progressively worse as he gets older.

 

[Maladroit]

Couture is still Couture. He's still, at least as of the end of last season, pretty much the same player he's been since his rookie season. The reason the contract is problematic is because he's likely gonna start declining halfway through and then you're stuck with a 40 point center making $8 million/year. That's gonna be an albatross no matter how much the cap goes up by. But it's also the price you have to pay these days to get the first 3-4 years of the contract for which Couture should still be a productive player.

Whatever you want to say about Couture the Sharks need him in the short term (they're not gonna blow it up and tank under Wilson). They absolutely do not need Vlasic, Kane or Jones at those price tags and term. Or, rather, these are players who can be easily replaced for cheaper and with shorter term commitments. Those are the contracts to be mad about imo.

 

[Barrie22]

Increased rate of injury? He had two flukes happen to him. None of the injuries he has suffered in the past few years are things you worry about getting progressively worse as he gets older.

A concussion is and will always be a injury to be worried about. And that was just this december.

 

[WTFetus]

After taking playoffs into account, I suppose it is fair to say that Couture has not declined offensively; at least not significantly enough for us to say it is already a problem.

Even not taking his playoffs into account, he has not had a "steady decline" unless you don't realize what the word "steady" means. It was just another point you attempted to make, similar to Kane's off-season work ethic, without actually looking things up beforehand.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Couture is still Couture. He's still, at least as of the end of last season, pretty much the same player he's been since his rookie season. The reason the contract is problematic is because he's likely gonna start declining halfway through and then you're stuck with a 40 point center making $8 million/year. That's gonna be an albatross no matter how much the cap goes up by. But it's also the price you have to pay these days to get the first 3-4 years of the contract for which Couture should still be a productive player.

Whatever you want to say about Couture the Sharks need him in the short term (they're not gonna blow it up and tank under Wilson). They absolutely do not need Vlasic, Kane or Jones at those price tags and term. Or, rather, these are players who can be easily replaced for cheaper and with shorter term commitments. Those are the contracts to be mad about imo.

We'll see but that's a while from now and things will change between now and then. They were able to move Heatley and a team just took Phaneuf in a trade so I think where there's a will to move a guy there will be a way. I'm not concerned at all about Jones' term. Being locked in at that rate until he's 34 is perfect. That's about the most he'd be useful for the team. Vlasic and Burns are certainly worrisome. Kane's could very well be depending on how his play style impacts his ability to play. If he lays off the physical side of his game during most of the regular season I think he can be fine for the duration of his contract when he would hit 34 and probably be done being useful to the team.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

A concussion is and will always be a injury to be worried about. And that was just this december.

Not in the manner that I'm speaking it isn't.