Confirmed Signing with Link: [STL] F Jordan Kyrou signs extension with the Blues (8 years, $8.125M AAV)

[MileHIGHAvz]

Unrealistic expectation. The only players that have signed 6+ years contracts in the last 3 years are: Reilly, Hischier, Keller, Spurgeon, Couturier, Hayes, Connor, Lee, Kadri, Nylander.

I'd take Kyrou at his cap over just about everyone of those players at their contracts except maybe Hischier and Connor. One's a 1OA that signed a bargain deal 3 years ago before breaking out and is just now coming into his own - half way into the contract. The other also signed 3 years ago.

You could make an argument for top pairing D in Reilley and Spurgeon, but those two will be paid into thei rmid 30s, so their prime would be over by the midpoint of their contracts, signed as full UFAs, while Kyrou will be signed through his prime.

Those are the only players to sign 6 or more years in the past three years?????
What am I missing

 

[biturbo19]

Kyrou is elite and a game breaker. All star caliber player

He's literally had one season where he scored at PPG pace. But okay.

 

[Blueston]

None of us can see the future, but I'd be shocked if when we look back at this summer's spending a decade from now the Kyrou contract doesn't look significantly better than either Huberdeau or Gaudreau contracts. Less $ for younger player who will likely outscore each of them over contract term.

 

[Mike Liut]

He's literally had one season where he scored at PPG pace. But okay.

you mean his first full season?

 

[biturbo19]

you mean his first full season?

Correct.

One full season, and it's straight to $8M+. That seems excessive.

 

[jackjohnson]

Stutzle is 20 and the Sens may have to pay him $10+ million if he progresses like they'd expect him to progress. The gamble makes sense in their case. Same situation with Hughes, paying him $8 million prematurely makes sure they won't have to pay him $10.5 million down the line.

Here? How much more money would Kyrou get next off-season if he has a repeat PPG season? I just don't see it having a substantial impact, he'd still be coming in around $8 million. There's a huge difference between a player who is 25 when his deal starts and a player who is 21 when his deal starts.

Look at this point, whether you are 20 like Hughes, 25 like Kyrou or 30 like Kadri you will get an 8×8 regardless if you are PPG or more and for older players being 100 points or more. This is the market now and there have been multiple cases so no point to argue since teams cant offer ther 3 million dollara or 5 million dollars per year. The price has been set.

 

[summer tooth]

Personally think the Blues did a nice job with both Kyrou and Thomas. There's somewhat of a precedent above 7.5 because Tarasenko was worth more than this during his term with the Blues.

 

[HockeyF3ind]

Sure seems like it.

Thompson 7.142
Suzuki 7.875
Kyrou 8.125
Stutzle 8.35

I think young elite players should be getting better deals, its the aging vets who should be getting less. Average age for peak pt production in the nhl is 24/25 and the pt production starts to drop on average significantly after 30. 30+ year olds should not be getting 6+ year deals at high AAV unless they are anomalies like OV.

I realize that there are intangibles the old vets bring but I think this shift towards younger players cashing in big makes a lot more sense based on the stats.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Has Buchnevich already fired his agent? If not he should...

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Guess he’s no longer going to Calgary?

 

[Regal]

Good thing he's 4 years further into his development than Stutzle! I think everyone expects Kyrou to score on average 70-75 points per season for the entire duration of his contract.

Based on what? You don't think Islanders wish they'd have signed Tavares to a 8 year contract out of his ELC?

Here's a list of budding stars signed to <5 year bridges:

PLAYER	AGE	SIGNING DATE	LENGTH	SIGNING	CAP HIT
1. Auston Matthews	24	Feb. 5, 2019	5	RFA	$11,640,250
2. Patrik Laine	24	Jul. 22, 2022	4	RFA	$8,700,000
3. Sebastian Aho	24	Jul. 1, 2019	5	RFA	$8,460,250
4. Elias Pettersson	23	Oct. 1, 2021	3	RFA	$7,350,000
5. Mathew Barzal	25	Jan. 9, 2021	3	RFA	$7,000,000
6. Brock Boeser	25	Jul. 1, 2022	3	RFA	$6,650,000
7. Alex DeBrincat	24	Oct. 3, 2019	3	RFA	$6,400,000
8. Rasmus Dahlin	22	Sep. 22, 2021	3	RFA	$6,000,000
9. Timo Meier	25	Jul. 1, 2019	4	RFA	$6,000,000
10. Pierre-Luc Dubois	24	Jul. 22, 2022	1	RFA	$6,000,000
11. Anthony Cirelli	24	Dec. 24, 2020	3	RFA	$4,800,000
12. Mikhail Sergachev	24	Nov. 25, 2020	3	RFA	$4,800,000
13. Filip Hronek	24	Sep. 3, 2021	3	RFA	$4,400,000
14. Lawson Crouse	25	Aug. 8, 2022	5	RFA	$4,300,000
15. Anthony Beauvillier	25	Sep. 1, 2021	3	RFA	$4,150,000
16. Jack Roslovic	25	Jun. 7, 2022	2	RFA	$4,000,000
17. Jake Oettinger	23	Sep. 1, 2022	3	RFA	$4,000,000
18. Noah Dobson	22	Aug. 22, 2022	3	RFA	$4,000,000
19. Vince Dunn	25	Aug. 6, 2021	2	RFA	$4,000,000
20. Jake DeBrusk	25	Mar. 21, 2022	2	RFA	$4,000,000

Just about every team here probably wishes they signed their player to more length. Matthews/Marner at 11M, or whatever the max was, over 8 years would look par for the course right about now. But instead they'll have to up that to 12-13M for the tail end of their primes. You're not going to tell me that you don't wish you had Barzal at 9M for 8 years instead of the bridge you gave him and now renegotiating a 10+M contract.

Exceptions? Maybe Eriksson-Ek, Beauvillier, DeBrusk, and Roslovic's teams are glad they went with a bridge but no one would call him a budding star. And we're not teams aren't handing out 8 years to 20-30 point players right now, Suzuki, Stutzle, Kyrou, Thomas, Norris, Fox, Heiskanen, Brady, Chabot, Hughes, Svechnikov are a completely different tier than these guys.

Hell, even teams that signed their young stars to 6M probably wish they'd gone for the max - Rantanen, Makar, Q. Hughes, Konecny, Hanifin, Andersson. Colin White is basically the only regret I can think of. Maybe Proporov?

Meanwhile if you look at ALL 8 year contracts, which ones look like albatrosses today? Largely the ones where players were signing their 3rd or later contracts, after the age of 27. Karlsson, Doughty, Price, Kopitar, Seguin, Benn, Stone, Jones, Nurse, Josi, Skinner, OEL, Burns, Couture, Couturier.

2023-24 Active NHL Players - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2023-24 NHL players who are currently active in the league

www.capfriendly.com

Tkachuk scored 104 points last season...only got 9.5M x 8. Meanwhile Stone scored 75 pts his contract year...and got 9.5M also. Output and production aren't so linear.

I’m not saying they are, there’s a whole host of factors that go into contracts. My point is, for an offense-only winger like Kyrou who is already 24 and has a track record of only a single season with first line production, he would have to do something really special this year to get into the 8 figure mark like the poster I quoted was suggesting. There’s not much risk of him pricing himself higher than this deal after this season, which is why some people think it would have made more sense to wait. Though with ROR up at the end of the year I can see why they’d prefer to have a better sense of their cap going forward before making a decision on him.

 

[missionAvs]

Like both this contract and the Thomas one for the Blues. Hate them as an Avs fan though. Both Kyrou and Thomas are legit talents.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Big contracts is the new way of tanking.

 

[Voight]

Worth noting Suzuki got more or less the same deal despite not being as productive.

 

[TS Quint]

It's not just about who has the highest contract. It's about the worth of potential. Guys like Sergachev, Stutzle would never have gotten the contracts they did years ago. 8-8.5 was once considered elite salary and now it's become pretty standard for top pairing/top 2 line forward.

Also, in terms of cap increases, the flat cap is expected for a few more years to pay off the escrow debt from covid, but expected to rise substantially in 24-25.

Salaries aren't about money, it's about % of the cap.

Reaching a $96m by the 2025 season seems very unlikely.

 

[Smartguy]

Worth noting Suzuki got more or less the same deal despite not being as productive.

Every player under the age of 25 who’s ever put up 50 points in a season now gets this contract.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Jordan Kyrou made the All Star game last year, he's that good.

 

[Zynbanejad]

Jordan Kyrou made the All Star game last year, he's that good.

He’s had one full season and one good season and that was last season. wild stuff.

 

[lomiller1]

you mean his first full season?

Second...

I'm generally in favor of giving young players long term contract coming out of their ELC, but I'd like to see a bit more in the first 2 years of that ELC if you are going to give him 8X8

 

[lomiller1]

Worth noting Suzuki got more or less the same deal despite not being as productive.

Suzuki's contract also got him on worst NHL contracts lists.

He’s had one full season and one good season and that was last season. wild stuff.

55 games in 20\21 was a full season, so last year was his second

 

[ref19]

Holy moly that’s a lot of dough for the player.

 

[Reality Czech]

Suzuki's contract also got him on worst NHL contracts lists.

55 games in 20\21 was a full season, so last year was his second

If they are declaring it one of the worst contracts before it even kicks in, then the list is pretty worthless IMO.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Suzuki's contract also got him on worst NHL contracts lists.

55 games in 20\21 was a full season, so last year was his second

In a season with 56 games, 55 games is a full season.

 

[Cirris]

Correct.

One full season, and it's straight to $8M+. That seems excessive.

Makes Tage Thompson's 7.15x7 deal look more reasonable.

 

[PocketNines]

During the shortened 2021 season he was PPG for the first half and then hit a massive wall. Last year he did something similar although the wall was less severe. Kyrou was noticeably bad in the second half of the regular season after he won the fastest skater competition at the all-star game and after the hapless Wyshynski wrote a big piece about how he was the next Mike Modano. Kyrou at this stage of his maturity is the sort of person to read his own press about being hot shit and let it go to his head. Last season Kyrou was getting benched for third periods because he is always a defensive liability who loses almost every board battle but he's not always an offensive force. He had both great and awful moments in the playoffs this year. This is a contract based on the hope that he will mature as a person and thereby give consistent effort and/or play defense when the other team has the puck during his career.