Confirmed Signing with Link: [STL] F Jordan Kyrou signs extension with the Blues (8 years, $8.125M AAV)

[Regal]

Pay him 8 now or 10-12 later

He’d have to score a 100+ points this year just to get to 10 next off-season.

 

[Regal]

There is talk of paying for potential but the reality is if the contract is not based on performance bonuses then they are all based on potential. Jonathan Toews' current contract was based on potential and he didn't live up to it even though he was an established player at the time.

Every contract is paying for potential to some degree, yes, but there’s a difference between paying for the potential that an established player continues their play, and paying for the potential that a player improves from what they’ve shown so far. I don’t think this contract is really paying for potential, as I think it’ll be a fine deal if he just stays at the level he was this past year. The “risk” is in him not being able to maintain that level, which is why some are suggesting they should have waited until after this year to see if it continues.

 

[lamp9post]

Looks like $8M is the new $6.5M for this next wave of top young players coming out of their ELC's.

 

[OG Eberle]

The comp here doesn't make sense since the comp OEL contract would be the one he signed in 2013, which was great value. OEL's bad contract was when he was an established vet with the contract taking up his 30s.

Comp wasn't to Kyrou. It was people comparing him to Stuzle, and as a result of his contract, forcing Kyrou's to be higher as he is more proven.

More of a concern with Stuzle and some of the Tampa guys vs Kyrou.

 

[SenzZen]

Good for Blues fans.

 

[Canadienna]

Looks like $8M is the new $6.5M for this next wave of top young players coming out of their ELC's.

Sure seems like it.

Thompson 7.142
Suzuki 7.875
Kyrou 8.125
Stutzle 8.35

 

[Jerkbait]

Looks like $8M is the new $6.5M for this next wave of top young players coming out of their ELC's.

Inflation affects everyone!

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

I dunno, but locking up their best forward makes sense for St Louis.

Thomas is their best forward but I don't disagree with the overall sentiment of locking him up

 

[Face Of Bear]

Great contract/player. Makes you wonder why Ottawa had to bid so high for Stutzle

 

[Mikeshane]

Toews wasn't paid for potential. You're basically saying every contract is paid for potential because you are hoping they potentially hit that worth in each year of the contract, and that's not what being paid for potential means.

Yeah I'm not arguing definitions I'm saying for all intents and purposes it's all projections of expectations, even established players don't guarantee anything.

Every contract is paying for potential to some degree, yes, but there’s a difference between paying for the potential that an established player continues their play, and paying for the potential that a player improves from what they’ve shown so far. I don’t think this contract is really paying for potential, as I think it’ll be a fine deal if he just stays at the level he was this past year. The “risk” is in him not being able to maintain that level, which is why some are suggesting they should have waited until after this year to see if it continues.

Yes and that's all potential it's just different reasons for believing in that potential.

 

[Pinto Bean]

Great contract/player. Makes you wonder why Ottawa had to bid so high for Stutzle

Because when fans & the Sens staff watch him play he looks primed to be the next 10M+ player in this league

 

[TS Quint]

My guess
23/24 - 84 - MacKinnon new deal
24/25 - 90 - Matthews new deal
25/26 - 94 - Draisitl new deal
26/27 - 98 - McDavid, Kaprisov

96 million is some huge increases. What are you basing those increases on? Any links?

With the impending FAs constantly resetting the market, any time you can look up a top line forward to reasonable money for 8 years is a win in my books.

Who has been resetting the market?

 

[SlapJack]

Great contract/player. Makes you wonder why Ottawa had to bid so high for Stutzle

Well, they could have bridged Stützle and then be on the hook for an even bigger AAV when he turned 23. So you could also say, makes you wonder why St Louis didn't sign Kyrou to a long term contract last year and saved a few million per year in AAV since he went PPG during the first bridge year.

Both methods are gambles. Kyrou won his, Ottawa could win theirs.

 

[Jets]

"Gimme the Bobby T" - Jordan Kyrou, probably.

 

[yurnxt]

Not really if you count the playoffs.

Thomas 84 games, 83 points
Kyrou 86 games, 84 points

Kyrou scored 12 more goals in total but I agree that Thomas is the better piece. And I also agree with those saying they should've waited another season and then extended based on the performance.

The Blues weren't really in the position to wait because if Kyrou duplicates last years numbers with a rising cap or especially if he explodes even further, then they face the prospect of giving him more than Thomas next year. Both the Thomas and Kyrou deals are fantastic as even if both players are only some version of what they were last year from here on out, rising cap means they are fair market at worse or even below market deals in a best case scenario going forward. The likelihood that Thomas and or Kyrou have already had the peak year of their career is close zilch IMO Personally, I feel both Thomas and Kyrou have another gear that we see as soon as this coming season that makes both of these deals look amazing for the Blues in the future. I also feel both players could possibly hit 100 points in a peak year scenario but we shall see!

 

[TheBeard]

96 million is some huge increases. What are you basing those increases on? Any links?


Who has been resetting the market?

It's not just about who has the highest contract. It's about the worth of potential. Guys like Sergachev, Stutzle would never have gotten the contracts they did years ago. 8-8.5 was once considered elite salary and now it's become pretty standard for top pairing/top 2 line forward.

Also, in terms of cap increases, the flat cap is expected for a few more years to pay off the escrow debt from covid, but expected to rise substantially in 24-25.

 

[playasRus]

I agree with that but I just don't see a Stutzle/Jack Hughes level talent. He also plays wing.

Just seems like a lot but maybe he turns into a 90+ point player and the cap rises significantly like you've said.

Good thing he's 4 years further into his development than Stutzle! I think everyone expects Kyrou to score on average 70-75 points per season for the entire duration of his contract.

It’s pretty obvious 3-5 year deals are the way to go.

Based on what? You don't think Islanders wish they'd have signed Tavares to a 8 year contract out of his ELC?

Here's a list of budding stars signed to <5 year bridges:

PLAYER	AGE	SIGNING DATE	LENGTH	SIGNING	CAP HIT
1. Auston Matthews	24	Feb. 5, 2019	5	RFA	$11,640,250
2. Patrik Laine	24	Jul. 22, 2022	4	RFA	$8,700,000
3. Sebastian Aho	24	Jul. 1, 2019	5	RFA	$8,460,250
4. Elias Pettersson	23	Oct. 1, 2021	3	RFA	$7,350,000
5. Mathew Barzal	25	Jan. 9, 2021	3	RFA	$7,000,000
6. Brock Boeser	25	Jul. 1, 2022	3	RFA	$6,650,000
7. Alex DeBrincat	24	Oct. 3, 2019	3	RFA	$6,400,000
8. Rasmus Dahlin	22	Sep. 22, 2021	3	RFA	$6,000,000
9. Timo Meier	25	Jul. 1, 2019	4	RFA	$6,000,000
10. Pierre-Luc Dubois	24	Jul. 22, 2022	1	RFA	$6,000,000
11. Anthony Cirelli	24	Dec. 24, 2020	3	RFA	$4,800,000
12. Mikhail Sergachev	24	Nov. 25, 2020	3	RFA	$4,800,000
13. Filip Hronek	24	Sep. 3, 2021	3	RFA	$4,400,000
14. Lawson Crouse	25	Aug. 8, 2022	5	RFA	$4,300,000
15. Anthony Beauvillier	25	Sep. 1, 2021	3	RFA	$4,150,000
16. Jack Roslovic	25	Jun. 7, 2022	2	RFA	$4,000,000
17. Jake Oettinger	23	Sep. 1, 2022	3	RFA	$4,000,000
18. Noah Dobson	22	Aug. 22, 2022	3	RFA	$4,000,000
19. Vince Dunn	25	Aug. 6, 2021	2	RFA	$4,000,000
20. Jake DeBrusk	25	Mar. 21, 2022	2	RFA	$4,000,000

Just about every team here probably wishes they signed their player to more length. Matthews/Marner at 11M, or whatever the max was, over 8 years would look par for the course right about now. But instead they'll have to up that to 12-13M for the tail end of their primes. You're not going to tell me that you don't wish you had Barzal at 9M for 8 years instead of the bridge you gave him and now renegotiating a 10+M contract.

Exceptions? Maybe Eriksson-Ek, Beauvillier, DeBrusk, and Roslovic's teams are glad they went with a bridge but no one would call him a budding star. And we're not teams aren't handing out 8 years to 20-30 point players right now, Suzuki, Stutzle, Kyrou, Thomas, Norris, Fox, Heiskanen, Brady, Chabot, Hughes, Svechnikov are a completely different tier than these guys.

Hell, even teams that signed their young stars to 6M probably wish they'd gone for the max - Rantanen, Makar, Q. Hughes, Konecny, Hanifin, Andersson. Colin White is basically the only regret I can think of. Maybe Proporov?

Meanwhile if you look at ALL 8 year contracts, which ones look like albatrosses today? Largely the ones where players were signing their 3rd or later contracts, after the age of 27. Karlsson, Doughty, Price, Kopitar, Seguin, Benn, Stone, Jones, Nurse, Josi, Skinner, OEL, Burns, Couture, Couturier.

2023-24 Active NHL Players - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2023-24 NHL players who are currently active in the league

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He’d have to score a 100+ points this year just to get to 10 next off-season.

Tkachuk scored 104 points last season...only got 9.5M x 8. Meanwhile Stone scored 75 pts his contract year...and got 9.5M also. Output and production aren't so linear.

 

[HFpapi]

I probably wouldn't have given Kyrou that kind of deal this early. I don't think Kyrou would have been any more expensive than 8x8 next off-season had he repeated his 2021-2022 season this year.

It's one thing to do it with 20 year old players like Hughes and Stutzle, who you're at risk of paying over $10 million if they progress like you expect. But Kyrou? I just don't see it with him. It seems like he would have gotten something similar next off-season, so why risk it from the Blues POV?

Perfectly stated. Exactly how I feel.

 

[GCK]

96 million is some huge increases. What are you basing those increases on? Any links?


Who has been resetting the market?

Based on 2021/22 HRR of 5.3B the cap would be 89M this year without the players debt. If I understand the MOU correctly that HRR will be used for the 2024/25 cap I’d the players debt is paid off in time. I’m assuming HRR will rise substantially this year. 4M cap increase basically requires a 250M increase in HRR.

 

[Blueston]

If you look at the continuous increase of production year to year dating all the way back to his junior years it's hard not to bet on the guy keeping this up. None of us can see into the future but this seems like a pretty safe bet as far as these type of contracts being handed out. As a GM you have to make gambles to put together a Stanley cup roster and this is a good of a bet you can take regarding that

And if he takes step team expects, waiting a year could likely have made him a $9mm player.

 

[Blueston]

Jordan Kyrou is worth $15 million more than Tage Thompson because:

a) He's a winger, not a centre
b) Everybody knows 48 assists is better than 38 goals
c) He got 35 points in 55 games during the 2nd year of the pandemic, not 14 in 38.
d) He plays with Ryan O'Reilly, he wasnt traded for him.
e) HFBoards said so

Tell me you don't watch the Blues without telling me you don't watch the Blues.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Looks like $8M is the new $6.5M for this next wave of top young players coming out of their ELC's.

You will see a shift in salaries vs age, in the past most players that hit UFA got the big pay days for what they used to do and felt underpaid and then rarely were worth it midway through their retirement deals

Biggest problem will be kids getting this kind of cash at an earlier age and remaining motivated as there is going to be less cash for the UFAs going forward

 

[BayStBullies]

Kyrou is one of the best wingers in the game today.

I'd argue he's better than Stutzle at this time.

He definitely has better balance.

 

[biturbo19]

Okay. Kyrou is a solid player, but this is seriously getting out of hand now.

 

[Mike Liut]

Okay. Kyrou is a solid player, but this is seriously getting out of hand now.

Kyrou is elite and a game breaker. All star caliber player