State of the Ducks

[AngelDuck]

I have no real reason to believe it, but I feel like Carlyle's end is closer than most of us dare to hope.

I think what someone said earlier is true: they'll give him 10-15 games with a close to healthy roster, and if they suck those games, he will be gone.

I think we have to hope Eaves, Silf, Kase come back and the poor play continues if we want him fired. Getting Getzlaf, Kesler, and Ritchie back hasn't made us look any better as a team so far, so I think it's pretty realistic that we continue to suck when healthy.

 

[bsu]

I wish our team was this entertaining

 

[Gliff]

I hope Carlyle gets fired before Thanksgiving, or they keep him and finish with a really high pick.

I just don't want to get a new coach in January and turn it on just to miss the playoffs or get swept in the first round.

 

[Getzmonster]

RCs bread and butter system was exploited by san jose….. he tried to change it up and play more to todays NHL and completely missed the mark.

Im not going to blame the dmen/forwards, because its just a terrible system... none of our dmen look good.... were basically ruining Montours development as a offensive dmen…. Lindholm Manson and fowler are exerting all their energy chasing the other team around the dzone because we cant have controlled exits/possession in the dzone/nuetralzone or offensive zone for that matter. Its just very ugly, and very boring hockey(at least as a ducks fan, for other fans they prob love playing us). I really don't know how BM can watch these games and think its acceptable. Things arnt going to get better until RC is gone... he is beter off just going back to the old system and hoping for he best.

Exactly. When there's little puck support, the D is going to be spending most of their shifts deep in their own zone trying to win outnumbered puck battles and making low percentage skill plays to escape pressure. Cam's been exposed the worst as this just plays to his weaknesses, just as it has with Manson testing his ability to make quick decisions and skilled plays under pressure. I think Lindholm has kept his head above water just because he has the best mix of size, skill, and hockey IQ to work with.

When a guy like Cogs, who has always exemplified the sort of puck support game that everyone preaches, is flying the zone every chance he gets, that is a red flag to me that even if the players are creating some of their own issues with poor play/decisions, the underlying problem is systemic. Though, with a healthy lineup (fewer plugs/rookies), the "system", or whatever Carlyle wants them to do, would be properly executed better. But I don't have a ton of confidence that many of these issues won't continue with a healthier roster, there's carry over from last season creeping in.

 

[Mallard]

Send Steel and Lundestrom down. Keep Carlyle & hopefully miss the playoffs & hopefully get a high pick. In the offseason move Carlyle to his office job.

 

[Paul4587]

I think what you are seeing this year and some of last year from Cam suggests he has taken a step back. I know the whole team is bad right now (and almost all of the dmen), but I was really hoping Fowler would progress into a leader of the defense, and instead I see him playing more and more passive both in front of the net and in the offensive zone.

Do you think he’s taken a step back or do you think the first half of the 16-17 season where he was a legit number one was an aberration? Outside of those 35 or so games and the odd spurt (like games 1 to 5 against Chicago in 2015) he’s always been this player imo.

 

[branmuffin17]

No, the limited NMC absolutely prevents us from getting valuable assets for him.

I think I disagree a bit with this statement, though I understand your point. But it's very black and white. Yes, being limited to 4 teams (5 now with Vegas, 6 with Seattle?, as it's a 26 team NTC) does handcuff negotiations quite a bit.

But saying it absolutely prevents us from getting valuable assets? Meaning, in order to trade him, we get essentially nothing of value?

Even with a list of 4-6 teams, there would be teams that would probably like his services. And in all honesty, his contract isn't near the worst out there. Sure, maybe we get less value...but not zero value.

I prefer to see statements that aren't hyperbole. No offense, Angel.

 

[Paul4587]

I think I disagree a bit with this statement, though I understand your point. But it's very black and white. Yes, being limited to 4 teams (5 now with Vegas, 6 with Seattle?, as it's a 26 team NTC) does handcuff negotiations quite a bit.

But saying it absolutely prevents us from getting valuable assets? Meaning, in order to trade him, we get essentially nothing of value?

Even with a list of 4-6 teams, there would be teams that would probably like his services. And in all honesty, his contract isn't near the worst out there. Sure, maybe we get less value...but not zero value.

I prefer to see statements that aren't hyperbole. No offense, Angel.

But with a 4-6 team list he can just list 4-6 teams right up against the cap or with stacked bluelines and know that a trade won’t happen. So depending on whose on the list it could severely impact on his value.

 

[AngelDuck]

Do you think he’s taken a step back or do you think the first half of the 16-17 season where he was a legit number one was an aberration? Outside of those 35 or so games and the odd spurt (like games 1 to 5 against Chicago in 2015) he’s always been this player imo.

Again, I think what you are seeing this season and much of last is worse than where he was 2-4 years ago. It could be confirmation bias but I really see his play getting noticeably worse. He's always been inconsistent but now we rarely see the upside of him flashed IMO.

 

[AngelDuck]

I think I disagree a bit with this statement, though I understand your point. But it's very black and white. Yes, being limited to 4 teams (5 now with Vegas, 6 with Seattle?, as it's a 26 team NTC) does handcuff negotiations quite a bit.

But saying it absolutely prevents us from getting valuable assets? Meaning, in order to trade him, we get essentially nothing of value?

Even with a list of 4-6 teams, there would be teams that would probably like his services. And in all honesty, his contract isn't near the worst out there. Sure, maybe we get less value...but not zero value.

I prefer to see statements that aren't hyperbole. No offense, Angel.

It does prevent us from getting valuable assets if Fowler WANTS to stay. Which he does. He wouldn't have signed that extension if he didn't. The reason Vancouver was able to get a 1st, roster player, etc. for Kesler is because he wanted out. He put the Ducks on his list because he wanted to be in CA and knew we needed a 2C. He put the Hawks on his list because they needed a 2C at the time as well. Made a trade easier for Benning to facilitate.

Fowler can submit his list as Nashville, San Jose, Tampa Bay, and Boston if he wanted to. There is nothing that prevents him from putting the 4 best defensive teams with the best LHD's on that list. And that absolutely means you either aren't able to trade him or you aren't getting anything valuable in return

 

[branmuffin17]

So looks like we've been talking a lot about defense here. Was thinking of starting a new thread, but I think the state of defense is a part of the concept of this thread as a whole.

Again it probably comes down mostly to the new system they're trying to play. Some of it (a lesser extent maybe) is probably the quality of forwards...when you've got more experienced forwards, they often will know better how to get open for passes or when and where to be in a given situation. This makes it easier for the defense as a whole, as they have more passing options and better support.

That said, do you all think our defensemen are just straight up struggling, or do you think most of their struggles are working in a system that's got some major flaws?

I look at each one of our D, and I'm not happy with any of them. I'm only going to worry about our main 4 for now.

• My boy Fowler has looked good in like...2 games maybe. Times where he's been activating into the offensive zone and using his skating ability. Restating from another thread but I also now want him off the 1st PP. But a lot of times, he's not using that ability, probably because our team never has the puck. And he seems like he's been even softer than normal in bodying up.

• Manson...also not himself. I'd been advocating the Fowler-Manson and Lindholm-Montour pairings due to offensive/defensive balance, but now I'm wondering if they'd be better in the old configuration. And like, last game, okay...a lot of games...Manson doesn't look like he's even skating hard. In the Chicago game last night, I saw one time where the puck went into our D corner, he had a ton of space, but skated so slowly to the puck that the Chicago forechecker pressured him and almost took it away. He would have had more time to make a move if he would have just gotten it quicker. This stuff drives me crazy.

• I admit that Lindholm is, by the numbers, our most dependable D. But holy crap he's bad handling the puck. Pucks bounce off his stick regularly, and he's just not smooth. He's also so sloooow. Not Manson slow, but still. Everyone always talks about how he just needs to take that next step to be a true #1, but I don't know if he'll ever get there.

• Montour is leaving the zone too early. He's trying to carry it too much, and hasn't been good enough to get it in deep reliably. His offense has been spotty, and he's lost a lot of defensive assignments leading to goals. In some ways, I feel like he's the one that's dropped off the most from last year.

How do you feel about my summaries? And again, is it more a systems thing that's causing them to fail?

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

Carlyle is def stifling montour a game ala vatanen

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Just find new coach/system and see how the team looks... and if things don't start to look better then consider cutting the fat

We did that with BB, I just don't get the hate for guy for switching his lines up. When Bruce was here, this team was entertaining.

 

[The Duck Knight]

There isn't a D corps in the league that is going to look good when they're forced to defend for damn near the entire game. I think the whole D has been shit, but I'm not passing any individual judgements on them until I see what they look like under a coach with a system that results in less passive D zone play and more puck possession in the other end of the rink.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

For the past 2-3 years I haven’t been a huge Fan of Fowler. Besides his skating, He fumbles passes, seems to shy away from a small ounce of physicality, and (above anything else) his shot (to me) doesn’t seem like it poses a threat to anyone.

Manson is a tough one. I feel like he was always supposed to be a stay-at-home D, but now is taking a more offensive role. His decision-making lately has been questionable at best.

Lindholm is probably the only defenseman that can make smart decisions and plays. It’s still the beginning of the season. I’ve never noticed his foot speed and acceleration, but I’ll look at that a bit more.

Montour is so up and down for me. Yeah, he has shown to have more offensive abilities than Vatanen, but the guy pinches up on the play way too much. Maybe Carlyle scared the offensive game away from him in that series with San Jose.

Carlyle is def stifling montour a game ala vatanen

This is so true!

 

[Ducks DVM]

I think what you are seeing this year and some of last year from Cam suggests he has taken a step back. I know the whole team is bad right now (and almost all of the dmen), but I was really hoping Fowler would progress into a leader of the defense, and instead I see him playing more and more passive both in front of the net and in the offensive zone.

He was quite possibly our best player in that series against the Blackhawks a few years ago. I haven't seen that guy in a while personally. Maybe it's the RC effect, maybe it isn't.

But I get your point

Yeah, I’m not sure he’s as mentally strong as he could be, and I’m not sure that RC is necessarily good for his mental status. I do wonder what he would have been if he’d been allowed to play in juniors/AHL the way he should have been, and if he’d not been forced to carry boat anchors his entire career. I don’t know that he WOULD have been mentally stronger, but he might have had the chance at least. He is a different player when he plays with confidence (the first few games this season) vs without (now).

I really doesn’t know what to make of the team this year. Montour leads in shot fancy stats amongst the D who’ve played every game. I don’t think any of them are better than a 2, and Lindholm has had games where it would be charitable to call him a 4 as well.

 

[Paul4587]

So looks like we've been talking a lot about defense here. Was thinking of starting a new thread, but I think the state of defense is a part of the concept of this thread as a whole.

Again it probably comes down mostly to the new system they're trying to play. Some of it (a lesser extent maybe) is probably the quality of forwards...when you've got more experienced forwards, they often will know better how to get open for passes or when and where to be in a given situation. This makes it easier for the defense as a whole, as they have more passing options and better support.

That said, do you all think our defensemen are just straight up struggling, or do you think most of their struggles are working in a system that's got some major flaws?

I look at each one of our D, and I'm not happy with any of them. I'm only going to worry about our main 4 for now.

• My boy Fowler has looked good in like...2 games maybe. Times where he's been activating into the offensive zone and using his skating ability. Restating from another thread but I also now want him off the 1st PP. But a lot of times, he's not using that ability, probably because our team never has the puck. And he seems like he's been even softer than normal in bodying up.

• Manson...also not himself. I'd been advocating the Fowler-Manson and Lindholm-Montour pairings due to offensive/defensive balance, but now I'm wondering if they'd be better in the old configuration. And like, last game, okay...a lot of games...Manson doesn't look like he's even skating hard. In the Chicago game last night, I saw one time where the puck went into our D corner, he had a ton of space, but skated so slowly to the puck that the Chicago forechecker pressured him and almost took it away. He would have had more time to make a move if he would have just gotten it quicker. This stuff drives me crazy.

• I admit that Lindholm is, by the numbers, our most dependable D. But holy crap he's bad handling the puck. Pucks bounce off his stick regularly, and he's just not smooth. He's also so sloooow. Not Manson slow, but still. Everyone always talks about how he just needs to take that next step to be a true #1, but I don't know if he'll ever get there.

• Montour is leaving the zone too early. He's trying to carry it too much, and hasn't been good enough to get it in deep reliably. His offense has been spotty, and he's lost a lot of defensive assignments leading to goals. In some ways, I feel like he's the one that's dropped off the most from last year.

How do you feel about my summaries? And again, is it more a systems thing that's causing them to fail?

I feel like you’re pretty much spot on, I only disagree with your assessment of Manson and Lindholms skating ability. I think Manson is slightly above average in terms of speed and Lindholm while not as fast as he was when he first came into the league is still well above average in terms of skating.

Other than that I don’t disagree with anything. I think the system is definitely contributing though especially in regards to a lot of the turnovers being made.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I feel like you’re pretty much spot on, I only disagree with your assessment of Manson and Lindholms skating ability. I think Manson is slightly above average in terms of speed and Lindholm while not as fast as he was when he first came into the league is still well above average in terms of skating.

Other than that I don’t disagree with anything. I think the system is definitely contributing though especially in regards to a lot of the turnovers being made.

I agree Lindholm isn't fast, but he is very good about taking the best route when skating against people.... his posistional play/awareness is good enough that his lack of speed doesn't hurt his game really at all.

Agree about manson, for his size/style hes a great skater and that's why he can play in todays NHL.

Fowler is great skater/good speed but he tends to get to the play and try to figure out the best away to avoid any sort of physical interaction.


Montour seems lost with this new system... I hate seeing someone with so much potential being played wrong.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

But with a 4-6 team list he can just list 4-6 teams right up against the cap or with stacked bluelines and know that a trade won’t happen. So depending on whose on the list it could severely impact on his value.

That presumes that he wants to stay, which in that scenario I think is pretty unlikely.

 

[KyleJRM]

Let's say Carlysle is fired this afternoon. Within two weeks, we have Kase, Silfverberg and Eaves in the lineup.

How much better does it get by the end of the season?

Our shot differential is -140. The next closest is -64. I don't even have a frame of reference for describing how bad that is. I have trouble thinking any one thing, or even a couple of things like replacing the coach and adding a couple of forwards, could fix something *that* far below the rest of the league.

 

[rlstine]

They'll be fine. They always are.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Let's say Carlysle is fired this afternoon. Within two weeks, we have Kase, Silfverberg and Eaves in the lineup.

How much better does it get by the end of the season?

Our shot differential is -140. The next closest is -64. I don't even have a frame of reference for describing how bad that is. I have trouble thinking any one thing, or even a couple of things like replacing the coach and adding a couple of forwards, could fix something *that* far below the rest of the league.

I don't really have a frame of reference but it's perfectly plausible to me that the problem is a combination of (1) a brand new system (2) implemented by a coach is doing a poor job of it (3) on a team with unprecedented injuries. We fire RC today and in two weeks, (2) and (3) are both gone. I can imagine a dramatic improvement, honestly. Or at least fantasize about one.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I don't really have a frame of reference but it's perfectly plausible to me that the problem is a combination of (1) a brand new system (2) implemented by a coach is doing a poor job of it (3) on a team with unprecedented injuries. We fire RC today and in two weeks, (2) and (3) are both gone. I can imagine a dramatic improvement, honestly. Or at least fantasize about one.

The team on paper isn't as bad as the play/shot differential show.

The way Gibson is playing... you add Kase/Eaves/silf back into the line up... and run a system where were not getting outshot by 15 a night and I think we have a pretty solid season.

Rakell Getzlaf Eaves
Comtois Henrique Kase
Ritchie Kesler Silfverberg
Cogliano Lundestrom Aberg/Sheets

w/o eaves... I kinda liked the Ritchie Getz Rakell line, can move up Aberg/cogs to kesler line. Send Steel/Sheerwood/terry etc down to gain muscle/playing time/confidence.

I think it might be time to go back to
Lindholm Manson
Fowler Montour
Pettersson/Larsson/Mahura + Schenn
Sustr
- Pettersson has struggled a bit(but hard to judge because all the dmen have struggled.

 

[Elvs]

Say what you want about +/-, but this is a strange thing. Josh Manson is a +9 on a team where no other defenseman is higher than a +1.

Sherwood is also a +7 while no other forward is higher than +3.

 

[70sSanO]

Somewhere Corey Perry is relieved that he will be able to sit this fiasco out and re-hab his bad knees at the same time. I'm sure Getz is ticked to have to endure this at less than 100%. I'm sure he will pace himself. No reason to jeopardize further injury for this.

Main concern is Gibson. Hoping he will survive this without incurring a severe injury.

John