#StastnyWatch - Summer of 2014 - Part I

[Mules]

Anyhow ... on to the Stastny issue:
IMO though, if I had to guess, I'd say I'm 51% leaning towards Stastny staying -- assuming he's learned anything about himself during the doldrum years, that is. Stastny is an emotional player that needs a positive environment to play well. He pretty much wilted during the Sacco years, when the team needed his leadership more than ever. I don't blame the guy -- it takes all types -- but that has to be fresh in his mind. If he goes to a cellar dweller and is expected to be "the guy," (and that is most likely who will offer him a big enough contract to pry him away from the Avs), he has to know it's not going to be the greatest of times, and let's be honest, he could be a bit of a disappointment himself on the ice.

The biggest worry should be a playoff team offering him a crazy contract. Think Homer-level stupidity. Then he gets paid and gets to compete.

I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him leave. It is still a very valid point that these guys' careers are short and they're trying to make a lifetime's nest-egg for themselves and their families. At the end of the day, it's just a game, and it's gotta be hard leaving tens of millions on the table.

I agree with the bolded part. He wilted when the environment is not suitable, hence the name " Casper". He will also wilt when expected to be the " go to guy". However, he is coming from good season, so I can see teams like Florida will throw a bunch of money for him, or even Toronto.

If I have to guess, I would say he will go to the Blues.

 

[Freudian]

When we are talking hometown discount for Stastny, it's $500k/year or so. Him signing for $6.25M/year most likely is a good hometown discount.

If fans or Roy/Sakic expects him to take a hometown discount of millions, it's not only insulting but would also suggest they are incompetent. I hope they don't push it too far in negotiations, because once a player feels alienated he's gone. Lex Alfredsson.

 

[Punished ROR]

When we are talking hometown discount for Stastny, it's $500k/year or so. Him signing for $6.25M/year most likely is a good hometown discount.

If fans or Roy/Sakic expects him to take a hometown discount of millions, it's not only insulting but would also suggest they are incompetent. I hope they don't push it too far in negotiations, because once a player feels alienated he's gone. Lex Alfredsson.

The second paragraph I absolutely agree with, but IMO in your first paragraph you're underestimating what he can get on the open market. All it takes is one big offer to skew the hometown discount.

The cap is going up, thus players' salaries are going up -- why are we expecting to get Stastny for cheaper than his current deal? It's just not gonna happen. Some GM out there will offer him at least $7M if not $8M.

If the Avs are set on getting Stastny for cheaper than his current deal, he's gone for sure.

I'd gladly be wrong, of course.

 

[AvsRobin]

The second paragraph I absolutely agree with, but IMO in your first paragraph you're underestimating what he can get on the open market. All it takes is one big offer to skew the hometown discount.

The cap is going up, thus players' salaries are going up -- why are we expecting to get Stastny for cheaper than his current deal? It's just not gonna happen. Some GM out there will offer him at least $7M if not $8M.

If the Avs are set on getting Stastny for cheaper than his current deal, he's gone for sure.

I'd gladly be wrong, of course.

If he demands anything around what he makes now and the Avs knew this earlier in the season it was inexcusable not to trade him at the deadline. They had to have felt they were close.

 

[Punished ROR]

If he demands anything around what he makes now and the Avs knew this earlier in the season it was inexcusable not to trade him at the deadline. They had to have felt they were close.

I'd say, prepare to be disappointed one way or another, then.

You simply cannot bank on getting your prime, playmaking C on a cheaper deal than what he's currently making as he heads into unrestricted free agency. Things/GMs go crazy during free agency and the Avs have to know this. You have to expect other GMs to try to lure your UFA away.

Roy/Sakic staying put suggests to me that they're willing to pay for Stastny.

If they weren't willing to at least match his current deal, that would be absolutely inexcusable, IMO. I'd guess the Avs are prepared to go as high as $7M. Otherwise, Stastny walks.

 

[Freudian]

The second paragraph I absolutely agree with, but IMO in your first paragraph you're underestimating what he can get on the open market. All it takes is one big offer to skew the hometown discount.

The cap is going up, thus players' salaries are going up -- why are we expecting to get Stastny for cheaper than his current deal? It's just not gonna happen. Some GM out there will offer him at least $7M if not $8M.

If the Avs are set on getting Stastny for cheaper than his current deal, he's gone for sure.

I'd gladly be wrong, of course.

I would hope the general idea is to find a number that works for both sides before idiot GMs around the league get a chance to throw money at him.

 

[Punished ROR]

I would hope the general idea is to find a number that works for both sides before idiot GMs around the league get a chance to throw money at him.

Well I would too, but it's getting late!

 

[Miri]

I just cant wait until him and O´Reilly are signed, so i can have my mind at rest, when it comes to this :-P
Those 2 signed and one top 4 defender on top of that (from the current UFA crop preferably Niskanen if possible in regard to cap), without losing anyone important (basically whole current top 6 + Mitchell, Tanguay, McGinn, Varlamov, Johnson. Barrie and Hejda, perhaps even Holden and Benoit) and i will be pretty content with the team going into next season.

 

[zxcvnm]

Yikes. Didn't I would offend anyone with 'stinky', but I most certainly do apologize if so.

Yeah, somehow I became more defensive than I meant to. Ignore that...

Wait. So you are saying that Stastny would take that deep of a discount? I'm confused.

I'm not saying he will, but he might if he wants to play for a contender. It also depends a bit on what you think he actual market value is. I don't see him getting $8M even from a weak team. I think the most he could command is a bit north of $7M.

Either way, I most certainly could see him doing it. Losing sucks, but $8M per can nicely sooth some losing bruises.

His last contract was paying him quite nicely during the Avs down years, particularly for his production. And you could tell he wanted out quickly. He, more so than almost any other FA, knows the pain of wasting years in a bad environment.

Also, the choice is not between $8M and losing and $0 and winning. He will be paid handsomely either way. He'll be earning more money than he will spend in his life and plenty of athletes take less money to win a championship.

Please think about this (just throwing your numbers around a bit): If Stastny got a $8M per offer from, say, Buffalo; and the Avs offered him $6M per. Over a (likely) 6 year contract, that's $12MILLION! He wouldn't go to a losing team and give up that?!? Plus, this is quite likely the last time IN HIS LIFE he's going to be in a position to make this kind of money. But he's not going to maximize it, he's going to give up $12M, …….so he can win some more hockey games?

It's quite a bit of money, but it happens all the time in sports. I'm not going to make a long list of athletes who chose to forgo salary for championships, but don't act like it's not much more common than you're making it to be.

Yes, he'd be saying no to $12M (probably less based on what I think he could get). But he'd still be earning $36M along the way - in addition to the ~$35M he's already earned.

I'm not saying it's likely, but athletes do do this.

The reason I think he's probably gone from the Avs is because the Avs might financially restrict themselves more than some other contenders because they have several contracts in a couple years that will be very expensive and Stastny's could present a problem. Additionally, it could load up too much salary on one side of the ice. I could see Stastny shopping his services around to various contenders to maximize his return among those teams, but honestly I still don't see him going to another weak team.

A very good point here, and a point of view I once shared, though my argument was around "the Avs would never pay Stastny more than Duchene". However, a few months ago, Bender posted an excellent counterpoint, which changed my mind on this issue. I'm not great at finding old posts, but his point (I'm paraphrasing here) was generally that it's OK for a veteran player on a roster to be payed more than a great young player(sic).

When it pertains to the Avs, yes, I could see them paying Stastny more than Duchene. But, the reason I mentioned AP from St. Louis is that St. Louis is commonly referenced as Stastny's most likely destination outside of Colorado. AP's contract was setup to be an internal limit by the Blues, because that's how they like to operate. If Stastny is set on being in Colorado or St. Louis, he won't earn north of $6.5M.

An excellent example, and one that does counterpoint my point of view to an extent. But McDonagh's current contract is the one directly after his entry level contract, which was at a point where a lot of players get those 'bridge' contracts. And those tend to be shorter in length. So perhaps he took that 30% bath in return for more years on his bridge contract, instead of the typical 2 year bridge? I could see the NHLPA being OK with this, because while the per year salary for McDonagh is lower than his value, the overall money contracted is much higher. In other words, the choices could have been "2 years for $7M" or "6 years at $28M". The union looks at that and says "$28M is far better than $7M, so no problem".

The union is not part of negotiations. Please point me to one example where they didn't approve a contract because the dollar amount was too far below market value.

BTW, most of my previous post was in response to the idea you think it's moronic that Stastny could take a significant pay cut to play for a contending team. You base the argument on the NHLPA, but unless you can find me an example where they've denied a contract based on its AAV, you are fantasizing reasons.

It is somewhat rare for players to take really steep discounts, which is why it would take me some time to compile a list. But, if Stastny is worth a little more than $7M, like I believe, then him taking a $6.5M salary is only about a 10% haircut, which even you acknowledge can happen. There's a remote chance he'll go lower than even that, which he probably will have to if he wants to continue to wear the Avalanche sweater. I just objected to the notion that there was no way that Stastny would. It might not be likely, but it's far more probably than you are willing to admit.

The other thing is that after this contract is up, McDonagh will be 29-30 years old or so, and will be in great position to get one more whopping contract in his career. Stastny will likely be 35 years old at the end of this next contract, and his uber contract days will likely be finished.

Stastny's already earned quite a bit of money on his previous contract. I might agree with you if that wasn't the case. But he's already earned more than he'll likely spend in a lifetime. So, for the same reason you think McDonagh took a reduced salary now because he can earn more later, Stastny could take a reduced salary now because he already earned all that he needs in life.



This is all a very long-winded way to say that I really don't think that money will be the number one factor in where Stastny decides to play. He's even intimated as much in the past. If you think he's dead set on getting an $8M salary, I think you'll be surprised at how much he ultimately settles for. And if he goes to a non-contending team, color me absolutely shocked.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I would hope the general idea is to find a number that works for both sides before idiot GMs around the league get a chance to throw money at him.

Yes, this has been my point. A guy who has been on the team for 8 years, the decision first is mutually deciding if the marriage will continue, then the appropriate compensation will follow. It's not going to be about finding his market value and playing the Avs off of it.

 

[Foppa2118]

Even if the Avs may be angling to have Duchene's $6M be the highest salary, if negotiations drag on in the summer, I wouldn't be surprised if Duchene goes to Roy and Sakic and talks up how important Stastny is, and that he has no problems with Staz getting more money than him if that's what it takes.

He's talked before about how all his good buddies have been traded or left in the past, I'm sure he wants to keep Paulie around. He seems like he's got a bit of pull with Joe an Patty too.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Losing Stastny would be a tough thing to handle, but I don't think it would be a crushing blow to the team. This team has 3 players capable of being centers on those top two lines. It would be reasonable to expect a step back next season without Stastny as those guys can't exactly fill the role he played (outside of ROR, who is least likely to be moved back to center, IMO), but I don't think it would crush the team where they couldn't recover and make the playoffs.

I think the Avs would obviously use that money to bring in someone like a Goc or a Kulemin to help ease the loss and turn the 3rd line into a defensive one.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I agree with the bolded part. He wilted when the environment is not suitable, hence the name " Casper". He will also wilt when expected to be the " go to guy". However, he is coming from good season, so I can see teams like Florida will throw a bunch of money for him, or even Toronto.

If I have to guess, I would say he will go to the Blues.

The Casper nickname needs to end.


He was the most clutch player on this team this year. He was the one scoring huge goals in the playoffs, and playing well in big games all year.


Give him a blank check, he's a must resign for us.

 

[AslanRH]

I still think a long term deal with movement protection will get him back for less than his current number.

8 years $6.25m AAV (NMC years 1-5, Limited NTC 6-8) [ 7.5, 7.5, 7, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5 ]

He'll be easier to move with less money on the back end if neccessary when the younger guys (MacKinnon) hit the bigger contract levels.

50 million is a lot of Scratch without having to move away from what really is your defacto "hometown", your gf's hometown, and a place where you are revered, etc.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Losing Stastny would be a tough thing to handle, but I don't think it would be a crushing blow to the team. This team has 3 players capable of being centers on those top two lines. It would be reasonable to expect a step back next season without Stastny as those guys can't exactly fill the role he played (outside of ROR, who is least likely to be moved back to center, IMO), but I don't think it would crush the team where they couldn't recover and make the playoffs.

I think the Avs would obviously use that money to bring in someone like a Goc or a Kulemin to help ease the loss and turn the 3rd line into a defensive one.

long-term, i don't think it's crushing. short-term, imo, it is.

stastny would be very, very useful player for the next couple of years. and not just that but as it weakens avs F depth so bad, avs can't really use players like PAP or mcginn as trade chips.

and he would of course sign with the blues or stars.

 

[henchman21]

There is one very important factor that a lot of people seem to be forgetting... Stastny's fiancee. It was pretty obvious she was happy that Stast wasn't trade on the deadline. There is a saying that rings more true by the day as you go through life... happy wife, happy life.

 

[Foppa2118]

The Casper nickname needs to end.


He was the most clutch player on this team this year. He was the one scoring huge goals in the playoffs, and playing well in big games all year.


Give him a blank check, he's a must resign for us.

I never thought of him as Casper, and want him re-signed, but there's a small part of me that wonders how he'll perform next season in a non contract year.

I'm not saying he won't perform well, but there's just the occasional thought in the back of my mind wondering how much of his turn around was Patrick, and how much of it was that he was in a contract year.

I think it's mostly Patrick, but player's usually put up better numbers in their contract year, and usually their numbers are a bit lower the following years.

Paulie scored at a 69 point pace over an 82 game season this year. What if he regresses a bit to a 55-60 point player? Not saying he will, but I think that's something the Avs are wondering when considering paying him north of $6M.

Again just to be clear, I want Stastny back, and think he's very important to this team, but I think there's a fair amount for the Avs to think about.

 

[AslanRH]

I never thought of him as Casper, and want him re-signed, but there's a small part of me that wonders how he'll perform next season in a non contract year.

I'm not saying he won't perform well, but there's just the occasional thought in the back of my mind wondering how much of his turn around was Patrick, and how much of it was that he was in a contract year.

I think it's mostly Patrick, but player's usually put up better numbers in their contract year, and usually their numbers are a bit lower the following years.

Paulie scored at a 69 point pace over an 82 game season this year. What if he regresses a bit to a 55-60 point player? Not saying he will, but I think that's something the Avs are wondering when considering paying him north of $6M.

Again just to be clear, I want Stastny back, and think he's very important to this team, but I think there's a fair amount for the Avs to think about.

I think I have a similar concern about his motivation, but it is really like a 5% concern.

I think he just hated working under Sacco and as long as he has remotely legitimate linemates and the team is competitive he will thrive in either a 1b/1c/2a/2b role on this team for many years ahead.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think I have a similar concern about his motivation, but it is really like a 5% concern.

I think he just hated working under Sacco and as long as he has remotely legitimate linemates and the team is competitive he will thrive in either a 1b/1c/2a/2b role on this team for many years ahead.

That's about where mine is if I were to quantify it. Either way, the Avs can afford to pay a little extra, and they need him to stabilize the group up the middle.

 

[Bender]

I'd say, prepare to be disappointed one way or another, then.

You simply cannot bank on getting your prime, playmaking C on a cheaper deal than what he's currently making as he heads into unrestricted free agency. Things/GMs go crazy during free agency and the Avs have to know this. You have to expect other GMs to try to lure your UFA away.

Roy/Sakic staying put suggests to me that they're willing to pay for Stastny.

If they weren't willing to at least match his current deal, that would be absolutely inexcusable, IMO. I'd guess the Avs are prepared to go as high as $7M. Otherwise, Stastny walks.

I am pretty sure that the Avs wouldn't pay him $7M per year. If that means he walks, so be it.

However, I don't think you can really look at it like that. Here is how you need to look at it:

Let's say Brian Burke tells 'Boston Pizza boy' to sign Stastny for $7.5M. Do you think that Stastny signs that contract knowing full-well the intense media scrutiny in that market and the fact that he'll be looked to, to be the 1st line center, highest paid player and needs to produce on a poor team???

Personally, I don't think he'd be interested in that at all. That's just my feeling...I don't see him seeking that kind of situation. Sure the money is AWESOME but your day-to-day life isn't nearly as much fun as when you're winning and successful. It can be downright awful when you mix in the wrong kind of situation with poor coaching + bad management. I think the 'omg he can't leave that much $$$ on the table crowd' is not really taking this fully into consideration.

Having said that, let's look at the teams, one-by-one:

Anaheim - well known fact that they have an internal budget and just finished signing 2 guys - $8M+ apiece. That said, Koivu & Teemu and possibly Hiller are coming off the books. A lot of rumors around Ryan Miller though. A possibility though Bonnino's been good. They might prefer to keep some cap flexibility.
Boston - have no real need for him.
Buffalo - LOL yeah right
Calgary - Doubtful. They'd likely want him but I doubt he'd want to go there.
Carolina - Doubtful.
Chicago - Won't have the cap space.
Columbus - Doubtful.
Dallas - A possibility.
Detroit - Very unlikely. They still have Weiss to try and bring back from the dead.
Edmonton - Doubtful. They'd likely want him but I doubt he'd want to go there.
Florida - Doubtful.
Los Angeles - have no real need for him.
Minnesota - they'll continue with Koivu and Granlund.
Montreal - Doubtful, not a good fit.
Nashville - Doubtful. They'd likely want him but I doubt he'd want to go there.
New Jersey - Doubtful. They'd likely want him but I doubt he'd want to go there.
NY Islanders - Doubtful. They'd likely want him but I doubt he'd want to go there.
Ottawa - Doubtful. They'd likely want him but I doubt he'd want to go there.
Philadelphia - They wouldn't have the cap space with the Lecavalier signing.
Phoenix - Doubtful. They'd likely want him but I doubt he'd want to go there.
Pittsburgh - have no real need for him.
San Jose - have no real need for him.
St-Louis - A distinct possibility.
Tampa Bay - Already have Stamkos+Filpulla.
Toronto - Maybe he should ask David Clarkson how much fun he had this year.
Vancouver - A possibility but I doubt it.
Washington - A possibility.
Winnipeg - I don't see him choosing to go there.

So we have:

Anaheim
St-Louis (does he want to play for that hardass hitchcock?)
Dallas
Washington (*who's gonna be the coach?)
Vancouver (*who's gonna be the coach?)

Those teams might be a good fit as far as how he fits in with their team. Now the REAL question is, are those teams prepared to pay Stastny VASTLY more than what the Avs will be offering???

 

[InjuredChoker]

he played almost 2800 mins 5on5 from 10-13. only forwards he played with more than 500 mins were hejduk and jones.

i think that, being put in position to succeed, explain his performance rather than motivation of being on a contract year. though it probably didn't hurt.

but i think it's a safe bet that he's 1B/2A-level center for the next 5 years or so.

 

[Drury_Sakic]

I'm pretty fascinated with how the Nordiques rebuild compares to ours now. I was a kid at the time so I have no memory of it,but I see posters like Bender have a wealth of knowledge of it. I just saw a post with someone saying how this year was similar to the year before they moved to Colorado. My question would be how does it compare? It got me thinking if we are going down a similar route with that team and when Sundin was traded. Was it because we also had a excess of centers then? Could this be a sign Stastny may be let go because of it?

The comparison does hold to a point, a very offensively gifted team with a mishmash of journeymen D men. Great regular season followed by a playoff loss to a team built much better for playoff hockey. Management eventually found a way with that Nords/Avs roster to fix the goaltending and 2-way game on defense and at forward. Obviously goaltending is not an issue, but the current franchise also needs to address the defense.

That said I don't think the Stastny vs. Sundin comparison holds because Sundin was traded for a vet leader (Clark) where as Stastny is already that for the Avs and I highly doubt they bring in a replacement with his money that provides that...though stranger things have happened. I also think that both Mac and O'Reilly are totally capable and fine playing the wing long term, so moving Stastny to make room at center for one of the two is also probably not a high priority as it was when Forsberg was stepping in to replace Sundin.

 

[The Kingslayer]

I never thought of him as Casper, and want him re-signed, but there's a small part of me that wonders how he'll perform next season in a non contract year.

I'm not saying he won't perform well, but there's just the occasional thought in the back of my mind wondering how much of his turn around was Patrick, and how much of it was that he was in a contract year.

I think it's mostly Patrick, but player's usually put up better numbers in their contract year, and usually their numbers are a bit lower the following years.

Paulie scored at a 69 point pace over an 82 game season this year. What if he regresses a bit to a 55-60 point player? Not saying he will, but I think that's something the Avs are wondering when considering paying him north of $6M.

Again just to be clear, I want Stastny back, and think he's very important to this team, but I think there's a fair amount for the Avs to think about.

I came up with Casper and I want him resigned especially after the season he just had. Im a little hesitant to give him 8 yrs like someone suggested earlier. But something like 5 yrs with NMC at $6.25 would work for me.

 

[nanzenkills]

I think those of you who think that Stastny will re-sign for any kind of pay cut are being unrealistically optimistic. He is coming off the best year of his career now, maybe not in terms of overall production, but definitely in terms of how complete his game was and how clutch he was for us. He was by far our best player in the playoffs, not only was he the most productive forward when we needed him to be, he was the most consistently physical top 6 guy that we had this series. I think best-case realistic scenario is that he re-signs for the same amount he makes now, but I fear that it will take more than that to get him locked down.

To me, he's worth it. His leadership was integral to the success we had this year.

 

[TheFactor]

I think we're going to end up signing him for $6.75 for 7 years. That'll take him through his prime and will give him a little pay raise that he can feel good about. The 7 years will take him through the rest of his prime and give us at least 4-5 really good season.