#StastnyWatch - Summer of 2014 - Part I

[Ceremony]

If will never get another chance to make this kind of money. If some team is willing to pay him $7/8M, he would be stupid not to.

Whereas if he were being paid 6 million for 8 years here (I assume we'd offer at least this), he'd just be throwing his future away.

 

[zxcvnm]

If will never get another chance to make this kind of money. If some team is willing to pay him $7/8M, he would be stupid not to.

A lot of people are willing to take a ~20-30% haircut on their salary if it means they'll actually enjoy life more as a result. I highly doubt money is his number one objective considering how much he must have hated the years under Sacco. If he wants the kind of money you're suggesting, he's destined to play for a team that will continue to miss out on the playoffs.

Outside of Colorado, only St. Louis, Anaheim, NY, and a couple other teams make sense. But I'm willing to bet the list of teams he'll consider are all contenders and none of which will pay him a dollar amount you're suggesting.

 

[CrimsonPuma*]

Whereas if he were being paid 6 million for 8 years here (I assume we'd offer at least this), he'd just be throwing his future away.

I don't think he would leave for money, just looking at reasons why he hasnt signed yet...

The Avs have locked up a lot of players already, but not Stastny.

 

[Avs_19]

If NHL GMs are as crazy as the people on the main board, I wish him the best of luck with his new team.

$7-8M/yr for Stastny? Oh hell no.

 

[cgf]

7 per for him is fine. I figure we'll sign him for less than that, but that wouldn't be outrageous.

 

[Huis Clos*]

If NHL GMs are as crazy as the people on the main board, I wish him the best of luck with his new team.

$7-8M/yr for Stastny? Oh hell no.

I guarantee if he makes it to July 1st without re-signing with the Avs some GM will offer him a 7 year $50+ million contract. Most likely including some form of a NTC/NMC.

 

[ABasin]

A lot of people are willing to take a ~20-30% haircut on their salary if it means they'll actually enjoy life more as a result.

No offense, but that's a fat load of stinky nonsense. Especially when one is part of a union. Will never, ever happen, re: NHLPA.

5-10% (max). Not 20-30%.

I'm with TPS. Stastny's likely gone folks.

 

[ABasin]

That's a nice, romantic way of looking at it, sure.

LOL. Was trying for a nice way to respond, but you did better than I would have. Well done.

 

[ColoradoSportsFan]

I was sure he was a goner before the season. But now I'd be more surprised if he wasn't back in Burgundy and Blue.

7 years, 6.0 per and a full NTC/NMC.

 

[CB Joe]

No offense, but that's a fat load of stinky nonsense. Especially when one is part of a union. Will never, ever happen, re: NHLPA.

5-10% (max). Not 20-30%.

I'm with TPS. Stastny's likely gone folks.

Count me in with you. Even at $6m the team would be asking Stastny to take a $600,000/year cut in salary. Over a 5 year deal Stastny would be walking away from $3 million. Let that sink in a bit.

 

[tigervixxxen]

LOL. Was trying for a nice way to respond, but you did better than I would have. Well done.

You probably didn't see anything else I said.

 

[Avs For Life]

Just curious, if he wants a butt load of money what could we get with a sign and trade?

 

[frog]

Im sure mostly everyone wants stastny to stay but what happens if he is signed for 6 or 7 years? Does that mean Mackinnon will play right wing until he is 25? Its established that Stastny and Duchene are centers. And 6mil for a 3rd line center doesn't make sense. There was a fit this year but will there be 5 years down the road.

Good players were let go in order for Toews and Crosby to develop as centers and it worked out for them. I would be heartbroken for stastny to leave but it may or may not become an issue, and that's probably what both sides are looking at more than the money.

 

[CB Joe]

Just curious, if he wants a butt load of money what could we get with a sign and trade?

Sign and trades just don't happen in the NHL. We would just trade his rights.

 

[ColoradoSportsFan]

Im sure mostly everyone wants stastny to stay but what happens if he is signed for 6 or 7 years? Does that mean Mackinnon will play right wing until he is 25? Its established that Stastny and Duchene are centers.

Why not. Mack played pretty well with Staz and Landy this year.

 

[Nihiliste]

Im sure mostly everyone wants stastny to stay but what happens if he is signed for 6 or 7 years? Does that mean Mackinnon will play right wing until he is 25? Its established that Stastny and Duchene are centers. And 6mil for a 3rd line center doesn't make sense. There was a fit this year but will there be 5 years down the road.

Good players were let go in order for Toews and Crosby to develop as centers and it worked out for them. I would be heartbroken for stastny to leave but it may or may not become an issue, and that's probably what both sides are looking at more than the money.

If that's the plan, you have to trade him at the deadline for assets. Inexcusable mistake if we lose him for nothing.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

Unless Stastny isn't committed to the team, I like the sign-and-trade scheme.

 

[tigervixxxen]

A sign and trade will NEVER happen. Not only does it make no sense for either party to do that I'm sure Stastny would get some sort of no trade protection in his next contract.

 

[Bender]

Following the 2015-2016 season (2 seasons from now), the Avs will have some major contracts to extend. They'll have to extend MacKinnon and Erik Johnson. Ryan O'Reilly will be commanding a handsome sum by that time as well. Tyson Barrie will be more expensive then too, either coming off his bridge deal or from a long-term deal he signs this summer. Yes, Parenteau's and Tanguay's contracts will be coming off the books then, but we still have to replace them. We also will hopefully have another top pairing defenseman to put with Johnson by that time and he won't come cheap either.

Even with the cap going up, it will be a tight fit. Honestly, I think 6.8mil with a NTC (which I think will be a sticking point for him), could hamstring us. If he demands north of 6mil, quite frankly I think the Avs balk.

I don't want to lose Stastny, but this team is equipped to replace him. However, if we do let him go, it's absolutely essential we find a way to replace his salary with a top pairing defenseman either this offseason or the next one.

As long as you're taking into consideration the MASSIVE Rogers contract that the NHL signed this past year that is NOT currently reflected in next year's cap (it will be reflected in the 2015-16 cap and expected to rise SIGNIFICANTLY) I firmly believe the cap is a non-issue especially when you consider that we are ALREADY paying Stastny $6.6M and have one of the lowest payrolls in the league!

Count me in with you. Even at $6m the team would be asking Stastny to take a $600,000/year cut in salary. Over a 5 year deal Stastny would be walking away from $3 million. Let that sink in a bit.

Perhaps this gets settled at $6,250,000? Part of 'giving a discount' is actually giving up some money that he would get otherwise. Pretty sure no one is talking about a few hundred dollars here. A discount, in 'NHL terms' represents hundreds of thousands of dollars even millions of dollars over the long term.

Why do I believe he will re-sign with the Avs? Pretty simple...two names: Mike Ricci & Chris Drury.

Both players had an important role on the Avs and were traded away because of salary demands and/or possibly ice time demands or other. Both times, when these players were traded, the Avs struggled trying to replace them. The Avs couldn't win the cup again after the loss of Ricci until Drury was able to replace him and then Lacroix traded him away and Drury was never really replaced and we know the rest.

Patrick Roy and Joe Sakic know this all too well, they lived it. So unless they have a backup plan (Radulov or other) they better think long and hard about letting this guy go.

 

[Foppa2118]

Why not. Mack played pretty well with Staz and Landy this year.

Yea I have no problem with Mack at wing long term. Before the season I did have an issue with that, but seeing how comfortable and dominant Nate can be on the wing as an 18 year old, makes me think he will be even better in the next few years playing there.

 

[zxcvnm]

No offense, but that's a fat load of stinky nonsense. Especially when one is part of a union. Will never, ever happen, re: NHLPA.

5-10% (max). Not 20-30%.

I'm with TPS. Stastny's likely gone folks.

Lol. Okay, you hold yourself back from a more snarky response and didn't even fully understand what I wrote. Good on you. Maybe I shouldn't have been so specific about the 20-30% because clearly that distracted from the main point of the post.

The point was that people (not necessarily hockey players) take significant pay cuts because money isn't their primary consideration. In my personal life, I know of people who took 20-30% discount on their jobs to be in a better situation for themselves. That wasn't directly related to Stastny's situation (although, I'll admit, I wasn't fully clear on that point).

Will Stastny take that deep of a discount? I never said that. But, what I did say in the rest of the post you didn't quote, was that money will not be his primary consideration, or at least, I don't think it will be. After years of Sacco, I don't see him going to a bottom dwelling team that could offer him the $7-8 million the poster I responded to suggested.

I also think there's a good chance that Stastny is gone. Don't count on him getting north of 6.5 from a good team (e.g. do you think St. Louis actually would pay Stastny more than Pietrangelo?).

EDIT: I like that you say that a 20-30% discount will never happen. I guess Ryan McDonagh didn't sign for $4.7 million AAV when he could have easily commanded more than $6 million (even as a RFA). That's one example, I'm sure if I actually cared, I could find some more.

 

[PAZ]

If we don't resign Stastny, I think we're looking at a similar place to where the Wild finished this year (barring no huge trades or UFA signings)

 

[ABasin]

Count me in with you. Even at $6m the team would be asking Stastny to take a $600,000/year cut in salary. Over a 5 year deal Stastny would be walking away from $3 million.

Exactly. Or some big number like that. This is likely Stastny's last monster contract. Of his entire life. He'll likely make the very most of it. As he should.

Though I don't believe Stastny's last contract will be the gating factor from which "cuts" or "home town discounts" will be calculated. It'll be what he can garner on the open market. The two numbers might be similar in the end, but ultimately it'll be the open market that dictates this.

 

[ABasin]

Lol. Okay, you hold yourself back from a more snarky response and didn't even fully understand what I wrote. Good on you. Maybe I shouldn't have been so specific about the 20-30% because clearly that distracted from the main point of the post.

Yikes. Didn't I would offend anyone with 'stinky', but I most certainly do apologize if so.

The point was that people (not necessarily hockey players) take significant pay cuts because money isn't their primary consideration. In my personal life, I know of people who took 20-30% discount on their jobs to be in a better situation for themselves. That wasn't directly related to Stastny's situation (although, I'll admit, I wasn't fully clear on that point).

Will Stastny take that deep of a discount? I never said that.

Well, I do admit that this is how I took your post, given the general subject matter and the subforum in which it took place. So, I stand corrected if I misunderstood.

But, what I did say in the rest of the post you didn't quote, was that money will not be his primary consideration, or at least, I don't think it will be. After years of Sacco, I don't see him going to a bottom dwelling team that could offer him the $7-8 million the poster I responded to suggested.

Wait. So you are saying that Stastny would take that deep of a discount? I'm confused.

Either way, I most certainly could see him doing it. Losing sucks, but $8M per can nicely sooth some losing bruises.

Please think about this (just throwing your numbers around a bit): If Stastny got a $8M per offer from, say, Buffalo; and the Avs offered him $6M per. Over a (likely) 6 year contract, that's $12MILLION! He wouldn't go to a losing team and give up that?!? Plus, this is quite likely the last time IN HIS LIFE he's going to be in a position to make this kind of money. But he's not going to maximize it, he's going to give up $12M, …….so he can win some more hockey games?

I also think there's a good chance that Stastny is gone. Don't count on him getting north of 6.5 from a good team (e.g. do you think St. Louis actually would pay Stastny more than Pietrangelo?).

A very good point here, and a point of view I once shared, though my argument was around "the Avs would never pay Stastny more than Duchene". However, a few months ago, Bender posted an excellent counterpoint, which changed my mind on this issue. I'm not great at finding old posts, but his point (I'm paraphrasing here) was generally that it's OK for a veteran player on a roster to be payed more than a great young player(sic).

EDIT: I like that you say that a 20-30% discount will never happen. I guess Ryan McDonagh didn't sign for $4.7 million AAV when he could have easily commanded more than $6 million (even as a RFA). That's one example, I'm sure if I actually cared, I could find some more.

An excellent example, and one that does counterpoint my point of view to an extent. But McDonagh's current contract is the one directly after his entry level contract, which was at a point where a lot of players get those 'bridge' contracts. And those tend to be shorter in length. So perhaps he took that 30% bath in return for more years on his bridge contract, instead of the typical 2 year bridge? I could see the NHLPA being OK with this, because while the per year salary for McDonagh is lower than his value, the overall money contracted is much higher. In other words, the choices could have been "2 years for $7M" or "6 years at $28M". The union looks at that and says "$28M is far better than $7M, so no problem".

The other thing is that after this contract is up, McDonagh will be 29-30 years old or so, and will be in great position to get one more whopping contract in his career. Stastny will likely be 35 years old at the end of this next contract, and his uber contract days will likely be finished.

 

[Punished ROR]

A very good point here, and a point of view I once shared, though my argument was around "the Avs would never pay Stastny more than Duchene". However, a few months ago, Bender posted an excellent counterpoint, which changed my mind on this issue. I'm not great at finding old posts, but his point (I'm paraphrasing here) was generally that it's OK for a veteran player on a roster to be payed more than a great young player(sic).

I wish this idea would die. (Not directing this at you, AB, just bouncing off the idea.) Fans around here are seriously setting themselves up for (further) disappointment by expecting every contract to be no more than the Duchene deal.

Guys, we should consider ourselves very lucky that Duchene clearly wants to be here and has signed two amazingly cheap contracts for the Avs. But expecting every other player to sign for a similar number isn't only unrealistic, it channels what you should be feeling -- extreme appreciation for having a player of Duchene's caliber that clearly wants to be here and win -- into a greedy, unrealistic view of what the rest of the team should be getting paid. Looking through the last trade deadline thread, people were thinking Stastny would sign for less than Duchene because he mentioned "hometown discount" -- LOL! That's never happening, folks.

Hell, we've seen this play out once already with the ROR extension. People were thinking ROR would get $4M -- then Duchene signs for $3.4M, and suddenly ROR should be so lucky to be offered the same contract as Duchene! That was an ugly time in our recent history, when many of you were ready to turn your backs on one of the team's fiercest competitors because of unrealistic expectations.

***

Anyhow ... on to the Stastny issue:

Around the lead-up to the trade deadline, I was critical of the Avs' decision to keep Stastny and risk losing him for nothing. But, there is no denying that the trade market was what it was ... not very good. I have to imagine that the Avs at least listened to offers. Ultimately I have to imagine that the Avs know the risks involved of keeping Stastny, and that no offer was enticing enough to deter them from the inherent risk of losing him for nothing.

I'm normally pretty cynical about the odds of keeping an impending UFA, or the genuineness of a player talking about "wanting to win," "good thing to build on," "hometown discount" -- heard it too many times, seen it disappoint too many times.

IMO though, if I had to guess, I'd say I'm 51% leaning towards Stastny staying -- assuming he's learned anything about himself during the doldrum years, that is. Stastny is an emotional player that needs a positive environment to play well. He pretty much wilted during the Sacco years, when the team needed his leadership more than ever. I don't blame the guy -- it takes all types -- but that has to be fresh in his mind. If he goes to a cellar dweller and is expected to be "the guy," (and that is most likely who will offer him a big enough contract to pry him away from the Avs), he has to know it's not going to be the greatest of times, and let's be honest, he could be a bit of a disappointment himself on the ice.

The biggest worry should be a playoff team offering him a crazy contract. Think Homer-level stupidity. Then he gets paid and gets to compete.

I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him leave. It is still a very valid point that these guys' careers are short and they're trying to make a lifetime's nest-egg for themselves and their families. At the end of the day, it's just a game, and it's gotta be hard leaving tens of millions on the table.