St. Louis and San Jose Watch (1st round picks)

[HogtownSabresfan]

Botts could have added a condition of:

STL makes conference finals 2021 2nd becomes a 2021 1st since STL wanted top 10 protection.

The bottom line is he gets paid based on results — he owns what happens on his watch.

Kane & O’Reilly (signed at a $7.5 hit into his prime) have turned into Thompson, Montour, a 28-31, a second, Sbotka cap dump and 1/3 of Berglund. It’s only luck that Berglund isn’t stuck here for three more years at close to $4 M.

The Blues pick moving down isn’t the end of the world but it’s an additional mark on a horrible deal. Sorry, going from #19 to 28 actually matters and reduces chances of getting a better player. Can you get a top 6 forward at 31. Sure. But odds go down.

The doomsday scenario happened of St. Louis turning around the year, let’s not pretend it didn’t.

GBJB’s drafting skills are the only thing that can make this deal not look almost as bad as a 1st, Puppa and Andreychuk for a chunky Grant Fuhr.

This is where we are at people.

Even if we do turn around next year, people will ask how much better would we be with Ryan — unless a pick pans out.

 

[GellMann]

You’re grading kids too early. Thomas played three OHL seasons at a premier talent development team prior to going pro.

Mittelstadt played a half season in the USHL and a season at Minnesota. He’s behind in development mostly due to time.

Talent and effort are there. He’s better than Thomas and will catch up, and eventually surpass him.

I'm definitely not convinced that Mitts is a better hockey prospect than Thomas.

Right this second, Thomas blows him out of the water. There's zero guarantee that Mitts' curve will pass him, even though it's possible.

 

[Husko]

So if the Sharks lose tonight, we could pick anywhere 28-31, if they win we pick 30 or 31, do I have that right?

 

[Havok89]

So if the Sharks lose tonight, we could pick anywhere 28-31, if they win we pick 30 or 31, do I have that right?

Looks right. Doesn’t really matter anymore at this point.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

I’m just tired of this organization overrating the value of draft picks. A top 8 pick is exciting, a 20-60 pick is not.

If you're not excited by Thomas Chabot at 18th, Brock Boeser at 21st, Pastrnak at 25th, Anthony Mantha at 20th, Robert Thomas at 20th it could be the reason you're a Sabres fan with unrealistically low expectations.

 

[GellMann]

If you're not excited by Thomas Chabot at 18th, Brock Boeser at 21st, Pastrnak at 25th, Anthony Mantha at 20th, Robert Thomas at 20th it could be the reason you're a Sabres fan with unrealistically low expectations.

This has always been an unrealistic way of thinking though. People think if we keep our picks through the last 5 years we're loaded with those guys, but in reality any single team gets a hit like that every decade or so. It's far more likely that if we "rebuilt the right way" we're sitting here with Nikolai Goldobin and another Alex Nylander or two than to have a single hit like that, much less more than one.

 

[Chainshot]

This has always been an unrealistic way of thinking though. People think if we keep our picks through the last 5 years we're loaded with those guys, but in reality any single team gets a hit like that every decade or so. It's far more likely that if we "rebuilt the right way" we're sitting here with Nikolai Goldobin and another Alex Nylander or two than to have a single hit like that, much less more than one.

Yep, it's not like Buffalo was known for developing their talent in any fashion during the end of Regier and the entire Murray regime. It's much more likely that the player would've been rushed into the talent vacuum. Might someone have stepped up? Sure. But the more likely outcome, that we see often enough around the league is that the early pressure stunts players growth. We know they've done it here repeatedly. When the Sabres start to regularly turn out polished prospects, rounding off their edges on the farm and delivering them to the parent club with regularity on timelines that fit league norms... then maybe trading picks would be a cause for more concern. There is no certainty that they'd have selected who was taken with those picks nor turned them into what those players have become.

 

[Jame]

This has always been an unrealistic way of thinking though. People think if we keep our picks through the last 5 years we're loaded with those guys, but in reality any single team gets a hit like that every decade or so. It's far more likely that if we "rebuilt the right way" we're sitting here with Nikolai Goldobin and another Alex Nylander or two than to have a single hit like that, much less more than one.

I can’t click “like” enough times on this....

 

[AustonsNostrils]

This has always been an unrealistic way of thinking though. People think if we keep our picks through the last 5 years we're loaded with those guys, but in reality any single team gets a hit like that every decade or so. It's far more likely that if we "rebuilt the right way" we're sitting here with Nikolai Goldobin and another Alex Nylander or two than to have a single hit like that, much less more than one.

A competent organization hits on those picks more often than incompetent organizations. That's the point, not that any team hits paydirt consistently at low 1st/high 2nd round picks.

 

[Chainshot]

A competent organization hits on those picks more often than incompetent organizations. That's the point, not that any team hits paydirt consistently at low 1st/high 2nd round picks.

I think we all hope one day to call this team a competent organization. But they are not that right now.

 

[1972]

If you're not excited by Thomas Chabot at 18th, Brock Boeser at 21st, Pastrnak at 25th, Anthony Mantha at 20th, Robert Thomas at 20th it could be the reason you're a Sabres fan with unrealistically low expectations.

This organization drafting a Pasternak at 11th OA is comical, at 26th OA is hysterical.

 

[jc17]

Do good teams hit on late picks more often?

Or are teams good because they got lucky and hit on a late pick or 2?

I know which one I lean toward

 

[GellMann]

Yep, it's not like Buffalo was known for developing their talent in any fashion during the end of Regier and the entire Murray regime. It's much more likely that the player would've been rushed into the talent vacuum. Might someone have stepped up? Sure. But the more likely outcome, that we see often enough around the league is that the early pressure stunts players growth. We know they've done it here repeatedly. When the Sabres start to regularly turn out polished prospects, rounding off their edges on the farm and delivering them to the parent club with regularity on timelines that fit league norms... then maybe trading picks would be a cause for more concern. There is no certainty that they'd have selected who was taken with those picks nor turned them into what those players have become.

+1

(I lost my like function again cuz i have no self control)

 

[Panthaz89]

The Sabres are so lucky! we are guaranteed to have two(one of which will be taken) of the last 4 picks in the 1st round. Good thing we make sure to give away core players to teams when they give us 1sts of course both these teams are in the finals against each other. We even had conditions on them!!! SMH

 

[Endless Ike]

This has always been an unrealistic way of thinking though. People think if we keep our picks through the last 5 years we're loaded with those guys, but in reality any single team gets a hit like that every decade or so. It's far more likely that if we "rebuilt the right way" we're sitting here with Nikolai Goldobin and another Alex Nylander or two than to have a single hit like that, much less more than one.

which decade do the sabres get a hit?

 

[Panthaz89]

which decade do the sabres get a hit?

my sources reports that we are expected to be dead before it happens so don't worry about it

 

[GellMann]

which decade do the sabres get a hit?

I'm hoping it's Olofsson

 

[old kummelweck]

I don't believe for a second that drafting is a crap shoot. Too many orgs are successfully building through drafting and development. You would think that an organization that drafts at 18 v. 30 would have a higher probability for a a hit, but it's really those organizations that need that 'luck' that don't have great amateur scouting, or make sure their players get into the right development path.

 

[Chainshot]

Who knows if the revamped scouting staff will hit on this pick. Let's hope for our sake and theirs that they do.

 

[Chainshot]

Colorado gets to pick #4 and #16. Too funny.

 

[DolanPlsGoSabres]

This organization drafting a Pasternak at 11th OA is comical, at 26th OA is hysterical.

We may draft a Pasternak potential player at 11 or 26. All the previous regimes had terrible development plans, so it's likely that any 'hits' would struggle in Buffalo.

 

[Member 308457]

Face it: We are the Washington Generals. The designated losers. Deal with it and spare yourself all the angst.

 

[Chainshot]

Face it: We are the Washington Generals. The designated losers. Deal with it and spare yourself all the angst.

At least the Generals get to watch the Globetrotters play. We get... this.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

If you're not excited by Thomas Chabot at 18th, Brock Boeser at 21st, Pastrnak at 25th, Anthony Mantha at 20th, Robert Thomas at 20th it could be the reason you're a Sabres fan with unrealistically low expectations.

Someone said they wished we had drafted Aho at #2. Well instead of that if we never made the first RoR trade we could have drafted him at #31. Instead he went a few picks after that so he would have been a likely choice if we refrained from that trade. But Murray loved trading #31 be it pre draft or the player drafted in the spot. Luckily Samuelsson is looking like a solid future top 4 dman.

It's funny the people bashing Botts the most were the most ardent Murray supporters. What a shock.

And can you all stop with RoR is Carrying the Blues to the final 4!!1

He has TWO goals in 13 games. He got caved in by the Stars top line and will get wrecked by the Sharks. Binnington playing at a god level is the only reason they are even in this spot. RoR in the top 5/10 scoring the first half of this season = Blues dead last. Binnington playing out of his mind = conference finals.

Bruins vs Sharks will be great to see. Would love seeing Thornton, Karlsson, Burns, Pavelski and Evander winning a cup.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Someone said they wished we had drafted Aho at #2. Well instead of that if we never made the first RoR trade we could have drafted him at #31. Instead he went a few picks after that so he would have been a likely choice if we refrained from that trade. But Murray loved trading #31 be it pre draft or the player drafted in the spot. Luckily Samuelsson is looking like a solid future top 4 dman.

It's funny the people bashing Botts the most were the most ardent Murray supporters. What a shock.

And can you all stop with RoR is Carrying the Blues to the final 4!!1

He has TWO goals in 13 games. He got caved in by the Stars top line and will get wrecked by the Sharks. Binnington playing at a god level is the only reason they are even in this spot. RoR in the top 5/10 scoring the first half of this season = Blues dead last. Binnington playing out of his mind = conference finals.

Bruins vs Sharks will be great to see. Would love seeing Thornton, Karlsson, Burns, Pavelski and Evander winning a cup.

I predict Asplund is latest guy we trade for no reason