St. Louis and San Jose Watch (1st round picks)

[tsujimoto74]

In trade value alone it's a pretty big difference.

Sure, but 5 years from now the player taken at 19th could be a bust and the player at 31st a top 6/top 4 guy. You get a ~dozen more names to choose from in the late teens, but scouting isn't an exact science. There's no guarantee a player picked earlier will be better. Heck, between 18/19 and later in the 1st round, I'm not even sure there's a strong likelihood.

Obviously, I'd rather we get a higher pick than a lower one, but the sky isn't gonna fall if we're picking at the tail end of the 1st. I figure if we end up giving STL's pick to Anaheim, Montour was the best piece we got in the ROR deal.

 

[is the answer jesus]

Prove it

The top picks in the 1st round typically have a much higher success rate I think everyone will concede that. Comparatively the rest of the 1st round is more of a crapshoot, but there is still a higher likelihood of getting an NHL player that will actually stick in the league when you pick earlier. CBS had an article about it a few years back. I'm sure it'll be fairly easy to find if you are interested. The last couple picks of the 1st round had around a 28% chance of playing 200 or more games, a first in the late teens to early twenties was around 40-50%.

 

[jc17]

Prove it

Look I agree that the draft is a bigger crap-shoot than many people think, but the first round is the least crap shootiest.

For drafts 2000-2015:

Draft picks with over 300 games:
Picks 18/19: 37.5%%
Picks 28-31: 23.4%%

Draft picks with fewer than 82 career games:
Picks 18/19: 34.3%
Picks 28-31: 57.8%

Now the stats for the guys that actually make it aren't all that different for picks 18/19 and 28-31.

For example, forwards that played at least 82 games averaged .45 pts/gm from 18/19, slightlty better than .40 for 28-31. But the chance you're going to pick a bust later is much higher, so I'd say its significant.

 

[Baccus]

What's An NHL Draft Pick Worth?A Value Pick Chart for the National Hockey League

 

[Sabre the Win]

Some of you are losing way to much sleep over this lol. Anything after about 8 is a complete crap shoot, 19th vs 30th isn’t that big of a deal

For a team who has missed on too many draft picks and are rebuilding still because GMs ravaged the pipeline that was already thin with trades to speed up a rebuild we need to hit on them all. So it is kind of a big deal.

 

[cybresabre]

If Botts was even a little bit capable, he would have traded both picks to Anaheim with the condition that they develop both players, flip a coin, then trade one of them back to us in 2022.

 

[Selanne00008]

Look I agree that the draft is a bigger crap-shoot than many people think, but the first round is the least crap shootiest.

For drafts 2000-2015:

Draft picks with over 300 games:
Picks 18/19: 37.5%%
Picks 28-31: 23.4%%

Draft picks with fewer than 82 career games:
Picks 18/19: 34.3%
Picks 28-31: 57.8%

Now the stats for the guys that actually make it aren't all that different for picks 18/19 and 28-31.

For example, forwards that played at least 82 games averaged .45 pts/gm from 18/19, slightlty better than .40 for 28-31. But the chance you're going to pick a bust later is much higher, so I'd say its significant.

Yeah I am on boards its a big diff. you can package our 2nd and 18 and get to 12-14. our 2nd with the 31st overall gets you nowhere near there

 

[Sabre the Win]

Yeah I am on boards its a big diff. you can package our 2nd and 18 and get to 12-14. our 2nd with the 31st overall gets you nowhere near there

We don't have a 2nd however if St. Louis wins tonight we pretty much do again.

 

[Cirris]

IF St Louis wins, I'm rooting for San Jose. If the Sabres end up with pick 30th or 31st. I at least want the other pick to be 28th or 29th

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

We don't have a 2nd however if St. Louis wins tonight we pretty much do again.

Good one. Dallas is channelling Sabres 2nd half of season.

 

[Ralonzo]

Because Buffalo

 

[SwordStanley10]

Stupidest condition. Only good that comes of this is it jars open the door a little more as to how incompetent Botterill is

 

[Jame]

Nice job Botts...

 

[Steddy33]

Nice job Botts...

Is ROR a 1c yet? I'm still not sure

Is Botts fired yet?

 

[Snargitz]

Its a situation where im annoyed.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Please just get rid of him, we have Dahlin to remember him by at least but let's cut our losses before more damage and suffering is done.

 

[Tsyolin]

Dallas was never in that game. It entirely rode on Bishop. Buffaluck strikes again.

 

[Tsyolin]

Also friendly reminder Botts isn't getting fired.

 

[1972]

ROR for 30-31st OA/Thompson as the key pieces. LMAO


Botterill might be a good manager, but he isn’t a builder. He’s not a talent evaluator.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Damn it.

It’s going to end up being STL vs SJ in the conference finals. Our worst case scenario. I can see it now.

At least Anaheim would get a crappy pick too, I guess.

 

[Aladyyn]

If San Jose wins tomorrow then it doesn't even matter.

 

[1972]

If San Jose wins tomorrow then it doesn't even matter.

More the fact that Botterill talked last July how getting that first rounder was a key piece. 30th OA is a key piece for a rental, not a core player under contract lmao

 

[wnysupport]

It is what it is, we got Montour out of it. It’s entirely possible that a young signed mobile defenseman couldn’t be had without the condition. (Or it’s possible he could have, nobody will know one way or the other) ....but....

If you already are annoyed with Botts you’ll find fault with this, if you’re in the wait and see boat you’ll probably not.

Personally, for me he gets this off season to shape the roster...nothing more

 

[Aladyyn]

More the fact that Botterill talked last July how getting that first rounder was a key piece. 30th OA is a key piece for a rental, not a core player under contract lmao

Eh, I don't think it makes much of a difference. I won't get too upset over the trade getting slightly more terrible.

 

[Tsyolin]

I still think we ended up getting the best player out of that deal with Anaheim no matter how the pick turns out, how fitting that we get screwed over as much as possible in the meantime.

f*** you Dallas, I actually got flashbacks to 99' from this, except this time you screwed me by not scoring.