No. They got some press for a couple of movies, but the vast majority of what they put out goes unnoticed and barely watched - they're wasting resources on crap. They'd be better off focusing on quality. Everyone always is.
We're going in circles. Netflix
does not have the time to be discriminating enough that nothing that is not of "quality" is produced. If it waits, and only makes things it's
absolutely sure about, there
will be no Netflix. The pace with which Netflix produces hits
must greatly exceed the rate that a company like HBO does. HBO has 40 years worth of material to fall back on. Netflix doesn't.
Netflix
has to roll the dice. Take chances on things it
isn't sure will find an audience. Its existential fight is
already here. If Netflix had made House of Cards, then nothing for five years because no great script came along, then Stranger Things, then nothing for 4 years because no great scripts came along--which is the strategy you're arguing for--Netflix would
already be at the end of its existence. They wasted less money, but they're out of business. That's not a good tradeoff.
Yes, Netflix knew what they had with a Sandra Bullock movie. People love Sandra Bullock and people like existential horror. It's the same equation that used to make House of Cards; people like(d) Kevin Spacey and they like political drama - presto.
People love Geoffrey Wright, people love survival horror and Hold the Dark failed.
People love Will Smith, people love sci-fi, people
especially love Will Smith in sci-fi, but Bright failed.
Birdbox was a shot from the perimeter, just like these other two. Shots from the perimeter are low percentage, but if those are all that's available and you don't take the shots before the clock runs out, you will 100% lose.