HF Habs: So who would you like Habs to draft @ 15?

[TT1]

How many spots would the Habs need to move up in order to be within range of significantly superior talent than they would at 15?

Has anyone tiered the talent pool to see where the sweet spots are?

Really depends, I have Byram/Cozens/Zegras/Turcotte ranked very high so if one of them slipped that's when i'd start looking into moving up. I have Newhook at 10 but I really have no idea how it'll play out on draft day.

Tier list (top 10):

Hughes/Kakko/Byram - Tier 1
Cozens/Turcotte/Zegras/Dach- Tier 2
Podkolzin/Boldy/Newhook - Tier 3

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

By strict definition, it was Kravtsov, not Tkachuk.

Last I checked, Brady scored 22 more goals than Kravtsov in the NHL last year.

 

[Andrei79]

Last I checked, Brady scored 22 more goals than Kravtsov in the NHL last year.

Last I checked, he had 0 NHL goals on draft day.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Last I checked, he had 0 NHL goals on draft day.

I think most people with a brain knew that Tkachuk was one of three guys in last years who for sure was NHL plug and play ready.

 

[SOLR]

I would not be surprised at all if we get a LD or LW at 15. It would take quite a player to get us off those needs.

*They are probably projecting Suzuki as a RW for the purpose of their needs evaluations.

We basically need to rebuild the whole LW in our prospect pool. The good thing is we have 2*2nd rounders. So potentially 1*LD in the 1st round (harder to find) and 2*LW in the 2nd round would be the need picks imho.

 

[Andrei79]

I think most people with a brain knew that Tkachuk was one of three guys in last years who for sure was NHL plus and play ready.

Are we going to talk about people with brains ? Because if we do, this really won't go in your favor here.

Maybe we cant talk about the subject at hand instead, if you can manage to form an original thought.

So let's do that. Kravtsov had no possibility of playing in the NHL this year being signed to a KHL contract, as your big brain surely knows. And, right before the draft, he was having a historic playoff run, all while being 18 year old, in a league that plays pretty much at NHL speed in its post-season (wonder if that could relate to NHL readiness... Hmmm).

So, while you didn't watch most of these players last year, those that did could come up with the conclusion there wasnt a clear BPA at 3, which really is the essential point here.

 

[Vachon23]

I would not be surprised at all if we get a LD or LW at 15. It would take quite a player to get us off those needs.

*They are probably projecting Suzuki as a RW for the purpose of their needs evaluations.

We basically need to rebuild the whole LW in our prospect pool. The good thing is we have 2*2nd rounders. So potentially 1*LD in the 1st round (harder to find) and 2*LW in the 2nd round would be the need picks imho.

I won’t be surprise if he trade is 2 2nd pick for a LD RFA like he did with Shaw

 

[Sterling Archer]

Gotta say that with a 1st round pick, I’d rather strike out with a player who’s all skill and potential 1st liner then a more “sure fire” less talented mid 6 player like we have in the past with guys like Leblanc, Tinordi, McCarron etc. At least TRY to get a potential stud. The odds aren’t much worse but the potential for a game changer is much more likely.

So with our 15th, I’d want a potential offensive star like Newhook, Caufield etc. If they don’t pan out, so be it. But f***ing try!

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Are we going to talk about people with brains ? Because if we do, this really won't go in your favor here.

Maybe we cant talk about the subject at hand instead, if you can manage to form an original thought.

So let's do that. Kravtsov had no possibility of playing in the NHL this year being signed to a KHL contract, as your big brain surely knows. And, right before the draft, he was having a historic playoff run, all while being 18 year old, in a league that plays pretty much at NHL speed in its post-season (wonder if that could relate to NHL readiness... Hmmm).

So, while you didn't watch most of these players last year, those that did could come up with the conclusion there wasnt a clear BPA at 3, which really is the essential point here.

Dude, I wasn't specifically talking about you lol no need to be so butthurt

But Tkachuk was obviously the 3rd best player in the draft. And the key here is present tense. Not to mention the fact Tkachuk produced in the NHL better than Kravtsov did in the KHL...

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

Dude, I wasn't specifically talking about you lol no need to be so ********

But Tkachuk was obviously the 3rd best player in the draft. And the key here is present tense. Not to mention the fact Tkachuk produced in the NHL better than Kravtsov did in the KHL...

There is literally nothing that makes it "obvious" that Tkachuk is or was the 3rd best player in the draft.

I can give you most NHL ready.

 

[L4br3cqu3]

Really depends, I have Byram/Cozens/Zegras/Turcotte ranked very high so if one of them slipped that's when i'd start looking into moving up. I have Newhook at 10 but I really have no idea how it'll play out on draft day.

Tier list (top 10):

Hughes/Kakko/Byram - Tier 1
Cozens/Turcotte/Zegras/Dach- Tier 2
Podkolzin/Boldy/Newhook - Tier 3

To me, only Hughes and Kakko are Tier 1, Byram is very near, but still a Tier 2, Podkolzin too, to me, is at the top of those Tier 2, along with the others you named, but then I'd add Krebs and Sodestrom to Tier 3.

Really like the idea of putting them in Tiers.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

There is literally nothing that makes it "obvious" that Tkachuk is or was the 3rd best player in the draft.

I can give you most NHL ready.

This is my point. Best Player Available means best player- which is present tense.

 

[vokiel]

At 15, Broberg is probably BPA, so the Bro.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

This is my point. Best Player Available means best player- which is present tense.

I really don't think scouts look at BPA as to who is the best right now. Kravstov producing in the KHL was probably better at the moment. And if that's the case Brett Leason may go 3rd this year.

BPA takes into account potential development.

 

[Andrei79]

Dude, I wasn't specifically talking about you lol no need to be so ********

But Tkachuk was obviously the 3rd best player in the draft. And the key here is present tense. Not to mention the fact Tkachuk produced in the NHL better than Kravtsov did in the KHL...

Yes, the key being the present tense here which, again, was the initial point. So I'll refer you to draft once again, when Brady had 0 NHL goals.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Yes, the key being the present tense here which, again, was the initial point. So I'll refer you to draft once again, when Brady had 0 NHL goals.

Well history has shown that Brady was in fact the best player. Out produced your boy Kravtsov in the better league no less...

 

[Andrei79]

Hey guys. Kakko is obviously the best player available for the 2019 NHL. He has 71 points in his 2019-2020 NHL season compared to Hughes' 52.

All of this is in the present tense, which is key.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Hey guys. Kakko is obviously the best player available for the 2019 NHL. He has 71 points in his 2019-2020 NHL season compared to Hughes' 52.

All of this is in the present tense, which is key.

You realize that the importance of this is that no projection is required, right?

 

[Habnot]

Voted Other - Harley

 

[ItzaGreat]

Draft me! I can play center! Although, I'm a better green than a red.

 

[Runner77]

Really depends, I have Byram/Cozens/Zegras/Turcotte ranked very high so if one of them slipped that's when i'd start looking into moving up. I have Newhook at 10 but I really have no idea how it'll play out on draft day.

Tier list (top 10):

Hughes/Kakko/Byram - Tier 1
Cozens/Turcotte/Zegras/Dach- Tier 2
Podkolzin/Boldy/Newhook - Tier 3

Thanks for doing this.

Are the Habs in Tier 4 or is there another grouping before the 15th slot?

 

[vokiel]

Voted Other - Harley

Apparently one of the best skaters available. I'd definitely go for him if the Bro is no longer on the board.

 

[Andrei79]

You realize that the importance of this is that no projection is required, right?

And you realize there's no value in it, right ? Tkachuk wasn't the clear BPA at 3 on draft day, which is all that's relevant here and in the context of the upcoming 2019 draft. If we had their 2020 point totals, then we could use that "strickest" definition of BPA, but we don't. That's why in that context the very definition isn't even standard. If we're going by who's going to score more points: well there's no real way to predict this when players don't have much seperation between them. If we're going with what's been accomplished, then everyone will weigh performances in different leagues according to their own biases. If we go with translatable skills, then two different pair of eyes will value differently as well. Obviously, this doesn't apply when there's a very significant gap between players (ex: Kotkaniemi and Cam Hillis), but when we're looking at the players picked between 3 and 10 last year, that's a different matter.

If I had to give an example from a professional, I would refer to Gordie Clark, who had Kravtsov as the 2nd best forward and as an NHL ready body. Meaning, he likely had more than 3 NHL ready bodies last year. (I will also add, for form, that context matters: a rookie playing with Mark Stone on a team with multiple guys flirting 0.8ppg and over will likely produce more than another one on a team, in a lower scoring league, that 1. Doesn't score 2. doesn't get equal opportunity, despite producing the most offensive chances).

If I had to give an example closer to home, I would refer to you. You had Zadina as the clear no. 3 player. You had him scoring 20 goals this year. (wait... so this means you didn't have Svechnikov as an NHL ready draftee ? Only Dahlin, Tkachuk and Zadina ? Really ????). Putting yourself in your own shoes at the time of the draft, it wasn't so clear who was BPA now was it ? Now, imagine if you had scouted other players, notably Kravstov (and Kotkaniemi too actually). This might have been even less clear. This is why you get guys like Clark and Chainey (and hey, even the computer scouts here) who aren't willing to call Tkachuk the no.3 clear BPA.

 

[Mrb1p]

Dude, I wasn't specifically talking about you lol no need to be so ********

But Tkachuk was obviously the 3rd best player in the draft. And the key here is present tense. Not to mention the fact Tkachuk produced in the NHL better than Kravtsov did in the KHL...

How ? How can you even say this when it's one year after the draft ? You can make the argument that he was further along in his development, and you'd be right, as everyone debated since day 1... But to call him the 3rd best player ? Wtf.

 

[SOLR]

I won’t be surprise if he trade is 2 2nd pick for a LD RFA like he did with Shaw

Not totally opposed to that if we get a stud, I think there are better solutions here that combine the long term view with the short term. I think we'll draft, then see what the UFA situation is, then make trade decisions (in this order). If you are in a situation where you get a UFA LD or RD (then trade Petry), that would be best at this point.

The biggest mission this summer for Bergevin is to sign EK, it's our Tavares moment. It's unlikely, because our prospect pool is not rebuilt per say upfront and we are not in Stanley cup contention mode, but there is something tempting about Carey Price and Weber. If somehow we trade up to get Soderstrom, mark my words this is done to increase our chances to get EK in (future partner, swedish etc.).

A D that looks this way:

Petry trade - EK
Mete - Weber
Kulak - Juulsen

Transforms us into a playoff team overnight. And that's with Brook, Romanov still coming.
Its also a big PP boost, where EK can QB Weber's shot.

I think the 2nd mission is to find a dangerous winger with a good PP shot, so that not all the focus is on Drouin all the time. Don't think Armia is that, or whoever we have right now. Tatar and Drouin are also too much alike: maybe this is Suzuki.

No real first line/2nd/3rd line here, all lines can be problematic for the opposition.

Tatar - Domi - Shaw
Lekhonen - KK - Gallagher
Drouin - Danault - Suzuki
Weal - Poehling - Hudon? (we have to save $ if we do all this UFA action)

The 3rd mission is to find a better backup goalie, I vote McElhinney for 1 year because maybe McNiven/Primeau will progress quickly. Trade Lindgren for pucks at the draft (7th round swith-arroooo!)