Blue Jays Discussion: So long Pillar, and thanks for all the catches

[horner]

For the knowledgeable baseball fans .

What is the difference in the Jays play from Gibbons to Montoya?

 

[canucksfan]

For the knowledgeable baseball fans .

What is the difference in the Jays play from Gibbons to Montoya?

Someone will provide a better answer than mine but Montoyo is more analytic based than Gibbons.

 

[AllDay28]

instead of getting thrown outta games, Montoya might actually make our players better

 

[Suntouchable13]

For the knowledgeable baseball fans .

What is the difference in the Jays play from Gibbons to Montoya?

How would we know that until they start playing regular season games? ST does not resemble regular season baseball whatsoever.

As for analytics, I would hope a manager does not base his decisions on analytics alone. He has to have a feel for his players not just follow numbers alone. Otherwise any stat nerd could be a MLB manager.

 

[horner]

In the way they play I mean.

 

[Suntouchable13]

In the way they play I mean.

I think it's hard to say until the regular season starts and they play a few games. ST means nothing.

 

[AllDay28]

How would we know that until they start playing regular season games? ST does not resemble regular season baseball whatsoever.

As for analytics, I would hope a manager does not base his decisions on analytics alone. He has to have a feel for his players not just follow numbers alone. Otherwise any stat nerd could be a MLB manager.

lmao what

1st - stat nerds run the MLB
2nd - get a f***ing feel for his players?

 

[Suntouchable13]

lmao what

1st - stat nerds run the MLB
2nd - get a ****ing feel for his players?

Can't have a conversation here. If you disagree, say it in a respectful way. I love stats, I love looking at stats myself and analyzing them but I don't want a manger in the dugout just following stats blindly. He has to know his players. If this pitcher is pitching really well, I am not going to pull him just because numbers tell me so. Or "analytics tells me to pinch hit for this guy in this situation but he is really hot right now and I like him hitting here so I won't pinch hit for him". A guy that knows when to follow analytics and when not to.

 

[Discoverer]

Can't have a conversation here. If you disagree, say it in a respectful way. I love stats, I love looking at stats myself and analyzing them but I don't want a manger in the dugout just following stats blindly. He has to know his players. If this pitcher is pitching really well, I am not going to pull him just because numbers tell me so. Or "analytics tells me to pinch hit for this guy in this situation but he is really hot right now and I like him hitting here so I won't pinch hit for him". A guy that knows when to follow analytics and when not to.

For one thing, if you want people to be respectful, maybe don't use the term "stat nerd".

For another, going with your gut is what led to Adam Lind getting tons of extra playing time against lefties when he was hitting well. The result? He was terrible. It also led to Kevin Pillar getting a bunch of opportunities in the leadoff spot when he was on one of his patented hot streaks. The result? A predictable, almost immediate return to being the guy who can't get on base that everyone knows he is.

Literally no manager ever has made decisions solely based on analytics, but it's much more likely to yield positive results than following your gut.

 

[zeke]

For one thing, if you want people to be respectful, maybe don't use the term "stat nerd".

For another, going with your gut is what led to Adam Lind getting tons of extra playing time against lefties when he was hitting well. The result? He was terrible. It also led to Kevin Pillar getting a bunch of opportunities in the leadoff spot when he was on one of his patented hot streaks. The result? A predictable, almost immediate return to being the guy who can't get on base that everyone knows he is.

Literally no manager ever has made decisions solely based on analytics, but it's much more likely to yield positive results than following your gut.

pillar carried us in that leadoff spot for a while when everyone else was sucking. gibbons didn't expect it to last, but it worked.

gibbons is the guy who constantly put sluggers like Donaldson and Batista up at the top of the order, when the rest of the league thought that was sacrilegious. it doesn't get much more analytic than that.

 

[Suntouchable13]

For one thing, if you want people to be respectful, maybe don't use the term "stat nerd".

For another, going with your gut is what led to Adam Lind getting tons of extra playing time against lefties when he was hitting well. The result? He was terrible. It also led to Kevin Pillar getting a bunch of opportunities in the leadoff spot when he was on one of his patented hot streaks. The result? A predictable, almost immediate return to being the guy who can't get on base that everyone knows he is.

Literally no manager ever has made decisions solely based on analytics, but it's much more likely to yield positive results than following your gut.

I didn't mean it in a disrespectful way. Like I said, I love looking at stats so that makes me a bit of a nerd too.

If you just followed analytics, then Roy Halladay wouldn't have so many complete games. All these pitcher switches in the middle of the game really piss me off. I wish more pitchers were let to finish their games more often. It makes the game unwatchable at time. The playoffs were unwatchable.

If following analytics is more likely to yield positive results, then why not put you or I or anybody else on this forum in the dugout in charge? Just tell them to follow the numbers every single time.

 

[Eyedea]

pillar carried us in that leadoff spot for a while when everyone else was sucking. gibbons didn't expect it to last, but it worked.

gibbons is the guy who constantly put sluggers like Donaldson and Batista up at the top of the order, when the rest of the league thought that was sacrilegious. it doesn't get much more analytic than that.

Sacrilegious? Gibby wasn’t the first or the only manager in recent years to run his best hitter in the leadoff/2 hole.

 

[theaub]

Outside of the inevitable use of the opener I doubt there will be much of a difference.

 

[Discoverer]

pillar carried us in that leadoff spot for a while when everyone else was sucking. gibbons didn't expect it to last, but it worked.

gibbons is the guy who constantly put sluggers like Donaldson and Batista up at the top of the order, when the rest of the league thought that was sacrilegious. it doesn't get much more analytic than that.

I don't know what specific stretch you might be referring to, it Pillar has a career wRC+ of 83 out of the leadoff spot. Analytics has never supported him being in that spot and making that gut decision has worked out horribly.

I'm not sure what the second part of it has to do with anything I said. I loved Gibbons and thought his use of analytics was always underrated. That doesn't take away from the failure of the gut decisions I mentioned.

 

[zeke]

Sacrilegious? Gibby wasn’t the first or the only manager in recent years to run his best hitter in the leadoff/2 hole.

he absolutely was one of the first to consistently slot elite sluggers into the #1/2 hole. and even now all these years later it's still not common.

absolutely.

 

[Discoverer]

Outside of the inevitable use of the opener I doubt there will be much of a difference.

I don't expect the opener unless injuries force their hand.

 

[Discoverer]

If following analytics is more likely to yield positive results, then why not put you or I or anybody else on this forum in the dugout in charge? Just tell them to follow the numbers every single time.

Because making those decisions is a fairly small part of a manager's job.

 

[zeke]

I don't know what specific stretch you might be referring to, it Pillar has a career wRC+ of 83 out of the leadoff spot. Analytics has never supported him being in that spot and making that gut decision has worked out horribly.

I'm not sure what the second part of it has to do with anything I said. I loved Gibbons and thought his use of analytics was always underrated. That doesn't take away from the failure of the gut decisions I mentioned.

I'm referring to the one and only stretch Pillar was used in the leadoff spot - at the start of the 2017 season.

 

[phillipmike]

Jays sign Daniel Hudson.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Discoverer]

I'm referring to the one and only stretch Pillar was used in the leadoff spot - at the start of the 2017 season.

Ok, let's take a look at that, then: Pillar hit leadoff from April 14 to June 20. During that time, he had a 91 wRC+ and a .305 OBP. Those ranked 8th and 9th on the team over that stretch.

This "everyone else was sucking" you refer to includes Smoak's 165 wRC+, Donaldson's 152, Martin's 137, Carrera and Travis's both north of 120, Morales's 114, and Bautista's 108. The first four of those guys had an OBP over .375 (led by Martin at .401), and Bautista was next at .342.

His stint in the leadoff spot worked out exactly as you would expect it to: he was hot for a couple weeks (154 wRC+to start off in the role) and proceeded to be unplayably bad for the next six weeks (60 wRC+) but stayed in the leadoff spot even though everyone else on the team started playing to expectations and leaving Pillar, predictably, as the worst hitter on the team.

 

[zeke]

Ok, let's take a look at that, then: Pillar hit leadoff from April 14 to June 20. During that time, he had a 91 wRC+ and a .305 OBP. Those ranked 8th and 9th on the team over that stretch.

This "everyone else was sucking" you refer to includes Smoak's 165 wRC+, Donaldson's 152, Martin's 137, Carrera and Travis's both north of 120, Morales's 114, and Bautista's 108. The first four of those guys had an OBP over .375 (led by Martin at .401), and Bautista was next at .342.

His stint in the leadoff spot worked out exactly as you would expect it to: he was hot for a couple weeks (154 wRC+to start off in the role) and proceeded to be unplayably bad for the next six weeks (60 wRC+) but stayed in the leadoff spot even though everyone else on the team started playing to expectations and leaving Pillar, predictably, as the worst hitter on the team.

you seem to have forgotten that most of those names were injured in that stretch.

 

[Scintillating10]

Why do the Royals hold Adam's rights or something?

 

[Discoverer]

you seem to have forgotten that most of those names were injured in that stretch.

Smoak, Carrera, Bautista, and Morales weren't. Travis was healthy for all of April and May. Martin missed two weeks in May. Donaldson missed a bunch of time, yeah.

Pillar was, at best, their 6th best hitter at any given point while he was hitting leadoff.

 

[The Nemesis]

Luke Maile is the hero we deserve.