So.. Edmonton has to be the favorites coming out of the west, right?

[TomasHertlsRooster]

absolute low IQ arguments.

there is not one guy in the NHL, past present or future, who would think Stone is better than McDavid

imagine being educated in statistics and still coming to the wrong conclusions

Yes, saying "The better player is the player who makes his team better when he is on the ice" is an absolute low IQ argument. Appealing to the authority of NHL players who said Price is the NHL's best goalie is the big brain take here.

 

[Hisch13r]

Huh? Not even close

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Because of the other 18 or 19 players in the game contributing to the stats you're trying to take a narrow snapshot view of?

And the evidence suggests those other 18 or 19 players were more flattering to McDavid and Draisaitl's results than Stone's.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Have you not considered that producing points at ES and PP also varies from usage by the coach, teammates, opposition, zone starts, strength of opposing goalies?

of course...hence why PRODUCTION is the ultimate stat

The big difference being that points completely ignore defensive play.

and stats ignore who's at fault for the goal against...hence you need to watch hockey games

 

[Kranix]

I apologize because I really do not want to be nebulous at all.

Over Mark Stone's final 3 seasons in Ottawa, the Senators controlled 56.49% of the goals that were scored at 5-on-5 when Stone was on the ice. Their goal differential, per-60 minutes, was +0.79.

Over the past 3 seasons, the Oilers have controlled 50.56% of the goals that have been scored when Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl were on the ice. Their goal differential, per 60 minutes, has been +0.07.

Over this same sample, when Stone, McDavid, and Draisaitl were all on the bench, the Oilers did better than the Senators.

Serious question: Why is it so hard to reconcile, given this information, that Stone may be a better hockey player than either of them?

I don't know how Mark Stone contributes to "+0.79" other than by being on the ice. What are the inputs other than team stats like team shots, team goals, team goals against.
I don't know much math, but it seems like you assume because of that number, Stone was the influencing factor.
Why doesn't McDavid crushing Stone's individual point total mean anything?

 

[Crabapple]

Probably have the easiest path to round 3 of any team in the playoffs.

If we do get to the WCF this will be why. I'm expecting we'll be playing a banged up Vancouver team with VGK taking the Pacific. We've always seemed to match up well against Vegas in the past, I think it would be a very exciting series provided we beat Vancouver. Neither series would be too physical, and if we can get past Vegas we can hope that whoever comes out of the central got upset by a wildcard (Calgary?!) and we have a matchup with them.

I dunno, I still feel like our team has a bunch of holes in the roster, Klefbom is our only really top end D man, and our goaltending is suspect. Really depends on a lot of things going right. I'm not used to having a good team so I don't really trust it or know what to expect. Exciting times though...

 

[Nihiliste]

As an Avs fan I think some of you guys are overrating us. Glaring holes on D could be exposed over a 7 game series, 3 of our 4 best forwards have had major injuries, depth players are streaky, up and down goaltending.

I think the Avs could beat any team in the league if they get healthy and the team runs hot, but I don’t think they’re necessarily built for multiple rounds of consistency right now. I could easily see Dal/STL/VGK expose our defensive warts or stifle our depth guys.

 

[soothsayer]

Can we all stop for a second to appreciate that there is someone here arguing that Mark Stone is better than McDavid and Draisaitl? Respect for taking time out of their busy day of selling pencils from a cup on a street corner must be shown.

 

[KlefDown]

Yes, saying "The better player is the player who makes his team better when he is on the ice" is an absolute low IQ argument. Appealing to the authority of NHL players who said Price is the NHL's best goalie is the big brain take here.

Mark Stone himself would tell you McDavid is better.
are you telling me Kelly McCrimmon wouldn't trade Stone for McDavid/Draisaitl to make his team better?

forget appealing to NHL players authority, literally anyone who has watched 20 mins of hockey could tell you mcdavid is better.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I know you might not want to hear this but all you have to do is watch them play to see that McDavid and Draisaitl have a bigger impact than Stone. As I said before, "outscoring" is more team based than individual based and McDrai have had arguably the worst supporting cast in the league the last couple of years before this one or hell, even in '16-'17.
This kind of reminds me of the Toews is better than Malkin and Ovechkin days when people were citing his superior 2 way play as evidence of his superiority.

Advanced stats are a useful tool but sometimes there's instances when you throw away the underlying stats and use common sense. This is one of them.

I have watched all of these guys play a ton, especially now that they're all in the Pacific. In fact, I was actually pretty skeptical of all of the GAR models that said Stone was the best player in the league, until I watched him against my favorite team, and saw just what an impact on the game that he has.

McDavid and Draisaitl do have a bigger impact at both ends of the ice. It's true. The problem is, their impact on the defensive side of the ice is a major NEGATIVE impact. And while that doesn't I see their terrible defensive play just about every time I watch them. I mean, just look at this defensive effort from both of them, but Drai in particular here:



Of all the players on the ice for this goal, Draisaitl is by far at fault more than the rest, because of his absolutely pathetic effort on the back check. I'm not a fan of using YouTube clips to analyze players, but I'm just showing you an example of what I've seen. I was dumbfounded watching in real time when this happened.

By contrast, ever since Stone came to the Pacific, I haven't seen a single play like this.

I know that for everybody else, common sense says that the guy with a bigger number in the "P" column on NHL.com is the better player. But is that really common sense, or is it just common opinion? Because for me, common sense says that the guy who helps his team score more goals than the other team is the better player.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

of course...hence why PRODUCTION is the ultimate stat

and stats ignore who's at fault for the goal against...hence you need to watch hockey games

Why is production the ultimate stat? Do teams win games based on whose top players produced the most points, or do they win games based on who scored more goals than the other team?

The statistics give us a good idea of who is at fault for goals against when the sample is large enough and proper context is applied.

When I watch the games, which is quite often, I find myself seeing Draisaitl and McDavid at fault for even more goals against than the statistics would suggest.

By contrast, I find Stone responsible for so many excellent plays that would've been goals against if he didn't put in excellent defensive efforts.

 

[Pitaya]

Id put Edmonton behind St Louis, Dallas, and Vegas. If Colorado were healthy than them as well

 

[KlefDown]

By contrast, ever since Stone came to the Pacific, I haven't seen a single play like this.

I know that for everybody else, common sense says that the guy with a bigger number in the "P" column on NHL.com is the better player. But is that really common sense, or is it just common opinion? Because for me, common sense says that the guy who helps his team score more goals than the other team is the better player.

you choose not to see it. you're telling me Stone is the absolute perfect player all while singling out drai on a single youtube clip?

 

[Love]

It’s such a fun time to follow the Pacific with Vegas, Vancouver, and Edmonton all loading up because they believe they can win the division and make a run. I think that they’re right in thinking that, it’s so wide open. Each team has strengths and weaknesses with Vegas being the favourite but they still haven’t separated themselves from the pack yet.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Please don't do this to us. HF Boards anointed us Cup favourites a few years ago and we were in the lottery. This team is nowhere from even being a playoff lock let alone West favourites. Dallas, Colorado and St Louis are all ahead right now and Vegas is on fire and will be a tough out for anyone.

 

[thaman8765678]

... Did Vegas/Colorado/Dallas/St Louis all disappear overnight?

Oilers got better but should not be considered the favorite.

 

[IceNeophyte]

blocks/hits/takeaways/giveaways 2019-2020
McJesus 18/34/48/69
Stoner 48/55/77/38

Other years are similar.

Point is, you guys are arguing apples and oranges. The McDrai line scores more, and will always score more. Stone is a different animal. He defends, disrupts, steals. You don't have to score as much if you are better at stopping the other guy from scoring. I believe their total contribution to team success is fairly equivalent.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

you choose not to see it. you're telling me Stone is the absolute perfect player all while singling out drai on a single youtube clip?

The one clip is an example of an atrocious defensive effort that I've never seen from Stone, and there's a lot more than one clip.



McDavid's defensive effort on this shift is atrocious. Does very little to contest the zone entry and does nothing to tie up Noesen in front. Then look at Drai on the 5th and especially the 6th Sharks goal. These are the kinds of plays that I have never seen from Mark Stone.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Why is production the ultimate stat? Do teams win games based on whose top players produced the most points, or do they win games based on who scored more goals than the other team?

really? because its the hardest thing to do in hockey lol

outscoring is of course important but you only brought up 5-on-5 outscoring

by your logic, a guy who scores 1 ES GF and has 0 ES GA is "better" then a guy who scores 2 PP goals and is on the ice for 1 ES GA

both are "outscoring" but you failed to show the stats

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

Based on talent alone, I favor Colorado coming out of the west.

Now, I could have said the same thing last year. But this year, they’re actually getting results in line with talent.

 

[Coffey]

Yamamoto is injured week to week now.

 

[nshlphoenix]

For a team 3 points out of wild card 2 slot, isn’t this a bit premature?

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

For a team 3 points out of wild card 2 slot, isn’t this a bit premature?

hey now, all the Wildcards last year advanced

 

[KlefDown]

The one clip is an example of an atrocious defensive effort that I've never seen from Stone, and there's a lot more than one clip.



McDavid's defensive effort on this shift is atrocious. Does very little to contest the zone entry and does nothing to tie up Noesen in front. Then look at Drai on the 5th and especially the 6th Sharks goal. These are the kinds of plays that I have never seen from Mark Stone.

More cherry picked clips. Really wish I was on my computer so I could go find every game Stone was a minus and post highlights of how he was the direct player at fault for the GA.

 

[Love]

blocks/hits/takeaways/giveaways 2019-2020
McJesus 18/34/48/69
Stoner 48/55/77/38

Other years are similar.

Point is, you guys are arguing apples and oranges. The McDrai line scores more, and will always score more. Stone is a different animal. He defends, disrupts, steals. You don't have to score as much if you are better at stopping the other guy from scoring. I believe their total contribution to team success is fairly equivalent.

LMAO no way this is real