Post-Game Talk: Slow starts, soft goals and poor 5on5 play doom the Oilers

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Well here's the thing, what level do you need at even strength with our power play?

IMO a little better team defense and some kind of change at goalie swings that back the other way.

I guarantee you by the time the season is over our PP% will be at least 10% lower than what it is right now. We had an amazing power play last year and look at how well it helped us when it mattered.

 

[bucks_oil]

In fairness to Holland, $1m for Ryan is just fine and I think their plan was for Ryan to be a temporary placeholder at 3C until McLeod was ready.

Unfortunately, that "placeholder" time period led to disastrous results and I know he's been better lately but I don't see McLeod being #3C ready yet or ever for that matter. I think Ryan will be ok on the 4th line with limited minutes and he does have some value on the PK, would be nice to get Archibald back at some point to help out on the 4th line.

3rd line C is the real glaring hole right now. It sticks out like a giant sore thumb. For years, Rishaug has been trumpeting this as the biggest need and I tend to agree.

I'd still like to see Nuge there. I think we are exactly one top-6 winger away from allowing that to happen. Perhaps Holloway or a deadline rental.

In the meantime, I'd even be ok with trying this, at least for a couple of periods:

McLeod McDavid Pulju
Hyman Draisaitl Yama
Foegele RNH Kassian

At least McLeod can keep up to McDavid and both he and Pulju can drive the net, cause chaos. I also think RNH would be pretty good as the steadying influence and playmaker with Foegele & Kassian.

 

[The Safe Play]

I'll just say this about Derek Ryan. Definitely disastrous results but...

Here is the save percentage behind him the last 5 years at 5v5

20172018 CAR 88.67
20182019 CGY 94.01
20192020 CGY 94.83
20202021 CGY 92.52
20212022 EDM 82.67 (this might be the worst in the NHL I'd have to look)

and shooting percentage

20172018 CAR 7.08
20182019 CGY 8.54
20192020 CGY 7.89
20202021 CGY 8.87
20212022 EDM 4.35

basically insanely small sample size and some of the worst luck ever. He's running a 48.46 CF 46.53 xGF but a 18.75 GF. The shot metrics are still concerning for a guy that is generally around 55% his career.

I personally would be more concerned with the guys that are consistently putting up awful shot metrics and bad goal results like Perlini, Shore, Turris etc.

Personally I think Derek Ryan has met the Dave Tippett system and then also got extremely bad luck. Better coaching and regular luck he probably can break even on the third line with Foegele and Kassian in my books.

 

[North]

Tippett had lots of video to review after the series sweep and did not actually bother to come up with any sort of game plan to adapt to how the Jets play us.

 

[Czechboy]

some signings are a disaster the day they are made but when you complain HFOil will tell you to wait till they have played.

well, here's 15 games of Ryan and Perlini Co. seen enough?

And Keith
Smith
Shore
Ceci
Kassian
Barrie
Ryan

All 'once the ink dries' type contracts.

The Hyman signing was tremendous!

Foegele has also struggled.

Add in Nurse regressing a bit and we've got ourselves a heck of a cocktail. I still say 100 points and easy playoff spot. I hope we make changes throughout the season. McLeod has been looking better which is a plus. Top 6 is still tremendous and PP is still great. Skinner looked very good in relief which might give him confidence.

 

[Czechboy]

I'll just say this about Derek Ryan. Definitely disastrous results but...

Here is the save percentage behind him the last 5 years at 5v5

20172018 CAR 88.67
20182019 CGY 94.01
20192020 CGY 94.83
20202021 CGY 92.52
20212022 EDM 82.67 (this might be the worst in the NHL I'd have to look)

and shooting percentage

20172018 CAR 7.08
20182019 CGY 8.54
20192020 CGY 7.89
20202021 CGY 8.87
20212022 EDM 4.35

basically insanely small sample size and some of the worst luck ever. He's running a 48.46 CF 46.53 xGF but a 18.75 GF. The shot metrics are still concerning for a guy that is generally around 55% his career.

I personally would be more concerned with the guys that are consistently putting up awful shot metrics and bad goal results like Perlini, Shore, Turris etc.

Personally I think Derek Ryan has met the Dave Tippett system and then also got extremely bad luck. Better coaching and regular luck he probably can break even on the third line with Foegele and Kassian in my books.

I honestly thought that third line was GOLD. I didn't necessarily like the cost to get that third line (too much cap, term and cost us a decent player) but thought if they turn us into a Top 9 then fine!

They had that 2 goal game, Kass had the crowd back.. and then every game since then has been worse. Kass went 0 for 5 games then get injured. Foegele is not a line driver. Ryan on 4th line.

It was one of the Holland moves that I actually thought was great. Maybe they'll get it going, long season and we have a nice cushion with our awesome record.

 

[soothsayer]

Not at you... but that's an unacceptable attitude on any good team.

Any team that can't recover from a bad goal against is not a good team. The goalie's job is to make that save, ALL saves, but he's going to flub some too. All goalies do. And after he flubs one, it's his job to brush it off and make the next save. Koskinen made the next 22 saves and absolutely held us in that game when we had no business being in it.

If Koskinen can manage his own psychology after that goal, he's done his job. It isn't easy to do.

His teammates are responsible for their own reactions to that goal. Koskinen gave them plenty of time to snap out of it and get in the game and they didn't give a crap until Draisaitl got boarded in the third and got mad. The lack of passion and competitive fire up until that point is 1000% on each one of them. Koskinen is not their shrink.

It's simply unrealistic at the NHL level, against top-10 teams, to expect players to routinely come back from constant lay-ups into their own net. I don't know if any of the teams that won the Stanley Cup in the last 15 years would be cup champions if they had to overcome a 1-0 deficit before the game starts in most of the games they played. The parity in the NHL is just too great to expect a team to get over that and still be elite. It's not realistic.

What's worse is that even when Koskinen is in the zone, he's liable to let in a brutal goal. NHL starters need to make the saves that Koskinen makes when he's "on," which people seem to sometimes think means he's "stealing a game." But the reality is, NHL starters make those saves; that's why they're starting in the NHL. Koskinen is not doing anything above and beyond what the team should expect of a starter when he "bounces back" from his routine muffin. The big difference between an actual NHL starter and Koskinen is that the starter makes all the saves Koskinen makes and lets in a squeaker every once in a while, whereas Koskinen lets in that muffin almost every game.

This is who is and always has been. The team has had to score 4+ goals to win more nights than not (including the nights they lose), and a big part of that is goaltending.

 

[Czechboy]

I'd still like to see Nuge there. I think we are exactly one top-6 winger away from allowing that to happen. Perhaps Holloway or a deadline rental.

In the meantime, I'd even be ok with trying this, at least for a couple of periods:

McLeod McDavid Pulju
Hyman Draisaitl Yama
Foegele RNH Kassian

At least McLeod can keep up to McDavid and both he and Pulju can drive the net, cause chaos. I also think RNH would be pretty good as the steadying influence and playmaker with Foegele & Kassian.

What did RNH every do to you?lol

Joke aside... I've seen this idea a lot and it makes sense. Howver, I think some of us (maybe even me) are trying to improve our D by fixing the forwards. I'm pretty sure most our D don't defend well. They skate, they shoot, they pass nicely! From our blue line to the net they look pretty good. Our blue line to goalie.. not so much. I'm not even sure who our best D has been, after 15 games, at defending? Ceci? Maybe a regressing Nurse? No idea.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I'll just say this about Derek Ryan. Definitely disastrous results but...

Here is the save percentage behind him the last 5 years at 5v5

20172018 CAR 88.67
20182019 CGY 94.01
20192020 CGY 94.83
20202021 CGY 92.52
20212022 EDM 82.67 (this might be the worst in the NHL I'd have to look)

and shooting percentage

20172018 CAR 7.08
20182019 CGY 8.54
20192020 CGY 7.89
20202021 CGY 8.87
20212022 EDM 4.35

basically insanely small sample size and some of the worst luck ever. He's running a 48.46 CF 46.53 xGF but a 18.75 GF. The shot metrics are still concerning for a guy that is generally around 55% his career.

I personally would be more concerned with the guys that are consistently putting up awful shot metrics and bad goal results like Perlini, Shore, Turris etc.

Personally I think Derek Ryan has met the Dave Tippett system and then also got extremely bad luck. Better coaching and regular luck he probably can break even on the third line with Foegele and Kassian in my books.

why do you assume is just "bad luck"? maybe he's taking low % shots and allowing high % chances against

 

[Czechboy]

It's simply unrealistic at the NHL level, against top-10 teams, to expect players to routinely come back from constant lay-ups into their own net. I don't know if any of the teams that won the Stanley Cup in the last 15 years would be cup champions if they had to overcome a 1-0 deficit before the game starts in most of the games they played. The parity in the NHL is just too great to expect a team to get over that and still be elite. It's not realistic.

What's worse is that even when Koskinen is in the zone, he's liable to let in a brutal goal. NHL starters need to make the saves that Koskinen makes when he's "on," which people seem to sometimes think means he's "stealing a game." But the reality is, NHL starters make those saves; that's why they're starting in the NHL. Koskinen is not doing anything above and beyond what the team should expect of a starter when he "bounces back" from his routine muffin. The big difference between an actual NHL starter and Koskinen is that the starter makes all the saves Koskinen makes and lets in a squeaker every once in a while, whereas Koskinen lets in that muffin almost every game.

This is who is and always has been. The team has had to score 4+ goals to win more nights than not (including the nights they lose), and a big part of that is goaltending.

I've always though a Stanley Cup contender would have Smith as the backup and Koski in the stands (at 1million per). I like Koski but he reminds me of a lot of my fav Czech goalies. He gets hot and makes insanely good saves (including last night as he made a lot of really good saves) but the next weak goal is always looming.

I do agree with the other poster though. He let in weak one and reboucned well and made some really good saves in final minute of period 1 and first few minutes of period 2. There are just way too many grade A chances flying our way.

 

[Czechboy]

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

It's simply unrealistic at the NHL level, against top-10 teams, to expect players to routinely come back from constant lay-ups into their own net. I don't know if any of the teams that won the Stanley Cup in the last 15 years would be cup champions if they had to overcome a 1-0 deficit before the game starts in most of the games they played. The parity in the NHL is just too great to expect a team to get over that and still be elite. It's not realistic.

What's worse is that even when Koskinen is in the zone, he's liable to let in a brutal goal. NHL starters need to make the saves that Koskinen makes when he's "on," which people seem to sometimes think means he's "stealing a game." But the reality is, NHL starters make those saves; that's why they're starting in the NHL. Koskinen is not doing anything above and beyond what the team should expect of a starter when he "bounces back" from his routine muffin. The big difference between an actual NHL starter and Koskinen is that the starter makes all the saves Koskinen makes and lets in a squeaker every once in a while, whereas Koskinen lets in that muffin almost every game.

This is who is and always has been. The team has had to score 4+ goals to win more nights than not (including the nights they lose), and a big part of that is goaltending.

exactly, it's one thing to give up a bad goal leading 5-1...but he gives up way too many softies at key times

against Philly it was a tie game and he let's in a bad goal
he consistently gives up an early goal, within the first 5 mins

it's unacceptable and it's gotta affect the team

 

[K1984]

For me the slow starts and horrendous defensive zone play are baked into the culture here, it isn't even the fault of particular players.

We've shuffled players around several times, but the same style of joke defensive hockey lingers around regardless. It's like this team just accepts it. Same thing goes for the slow starts. These issues were Eakins era problems and they still are focal points today.

 

[MessierII]

Not at you... but that's an unacceptable attitude on any good team.

Any team that can't recover from a bad goal against is not a good team. The goalie's job is to make that save, ALL saves, but he's going to flub some too. All goalies do. And after he flubs one, it's his job to brush it off and make the next save. Koskinen made the next 22 saves and absolutely held us in that game when we had no business being in it.

If Koskinen can manage his own psychology after that goal, he's done his job. It isn't easy to do.

His teammates are responsible for their own reactions to that goal. Koskinen gave them plenty of time to snap out of it and get in the game and they didn't give a crap until Draisaitl got boarded in the third and got mad. The lack of passion and competitive fire up until that point is 1000% on each one of them. Koskinen is not their shrink.

The bigger issue is 6 straight games giving up the first goal. You can’t do that.

 

[soothsayer]

I've always though a Stanley Cup contender would have Smith as the backup and Koski in the stands (at 1million per). I like Koski but he reminds me of a lot of my fav Czech goalies. He gets hot and makes insanely good saves (including last night as he made a lot of really good saves) but the next weak goal is always looming.

I do agree with the other poster though. He let in weak one and reboucned well and made some really good saves in final minute of period 1 and first few minutes of period 2. There are just way too many grade A chances flying our way.

This is definitely true. The defense is what many of us expected it to be. Improving on the back end would help, but not even an elite defensive pair is going to sweat over an opposing player taking an unobstructed shot from between the blueline and top of the circle. That should be a turnover, but those shots have been going in against the Oilers.

 

[oljimmy]

I mean, the hot start was awesome, but most of us could see that it was not based on a solid foundation. Oilers have been slow out of the gate all season, getting insane shots-against numbers, allowing far too many Grade A chances, their record was going to correct. The league is faster and more offensive than it used to be but you can't just plan to outscore bad defense in 2021 like you often could in 1985. The fact that this is happening under a coach renowned for defensive structure is alarming.

 

[McDNicks17]

What does that even mean?
Pageau can't play in this system? Danault can't play in this system? Gourde can't play in this system? Lowry can't play in this system? J. Staal can't play in this system? etc. etc.

Hell, a Martin Hanzal type who Tippett had in Arizona for years and when they made the Conference Finals with far less talent couldn't play in his system? Come on.

Foegele went from a great third liner that could step into the top six in Carolina to a third/fourth line player that barely looks NHL quality here.

I don’t think a new #3C would be much different.

 

[K1984]

Foegele went from a great third liner that could step into the top six in Carolina to a third/fourth line player that barely looks NHL quality here.

I don’t think a new #3C would be much different.

For Foegele it's almost like he started watching Kassian handle the puck breaking out and decided he wanted to copy it.

The disgusting turnovers and missed passes in the D zone from him have been awful lately. Can't even comment on the o-zone play because they are hemmed in most of the time due to the turnovers.

 

[Oilhawks]

What does that even mean?
Pageau can't play in this system? Danault can't play in this system? Gourde can't play in this system? Lowry can't play in this system? J. Staal can't play in this system? etc. etc.

Hell, a Martin Hanzal type who Tippett had in Arizona for years and when they made the Conference Finals with far less talent couldn't play in his system? Come on.

Mike Smith carried the Yotes to the Conference Finals

 

[CupofOil]

Foegele went from a great third liner that could step into the top six in Carolina to a third/fourth line player that barely looks NHL quality here.

I don’t think a new #3C would be much different.

So the massive step down from Jordan Staal to Derek Ryan doesn't make a difference? It's all Tippett's fault? Come on guys. This is blatant hating on a guy saying that he couldn't do shit with a real #3C when he has proven that he can.

I'll repeat what I've said for what seems like a million years now. The Oilers need a 3rd line center. Still waiting for one, since Peca. It's not Tippett's fault that an ancient Derek Ryan isn't up to the task.

 

[McHelpus]

Hyman - Mcdavid - Puljujarvi
Nuge - Draisaitl - XXX
Foegele - XXX - XXX
XXX - Ryan - XXX

Nurse - Bouchard
XXX - XXX
Keith - Ceci

XXX
Smith

Trade block: Barrie, Yamamoto, Kassian, Koskinen, Mcleod, Benson, Shore, Turris.

That's how I honestly see this roster... Can anyone fill in the holes by TDL lol?

 

[Kepler 186f]

Thankfully nobody is over-reacting in this PGT...

 

[iCanada]

I think the 'Mikko letting in softies is messing up the team confidence'-narrative is just making excuses for the team playing poorly. Yeah that first goal is terrible but after that he came up big a couple of times to keep the team in it and for the second game straight they got absolutey killed in HDSC. He looked pretty bad on the second goal but that shot had some serious speed to it, while I agree that he should've at least been able to react it's a pretty tough save to make.
Goalies, even great ones, will let in weak goals. Mikko's crappy season last year has everyone on edge but imo so far this season he hasn't had more soft goals than your average starter and overall he's looked good despite not getting a lot of help from the defensive effort of his team.

The bottom six just looks flat out bad and at this point I'd say finding a #3 C is more crucial than a new goalie. A lot of very bland players in the bottom six, can't create offense, not great defensively, not physical.

Then why do they noticeably play better with Smith in net even when he's playing like ass?

Koskinen has an .876 over his last 5 games, we've allowed the first goal in 6 straight games with Koskinen letting in the 2nd/3rd/2nd/4th/10th(Outlier)/1st shots in each game respectively.

It's 15 games in, there is *no way* he should be "tired" or "overplayed" yet. And frankly having one good game out of four is just not good enough.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Thankfully nobody is over-reacting in this PGT...

Was gonna say the same thing.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Was gonna say the same thing.

Honest question - how do you see these holes being filled: 1G, top 4-ish LD, 3C and 2RW before playoffs?

We all agree these are holes right? A team in year 5+ of McDrai w/ stanley cup asperations should not have this many holes.

Yes, we are 11-3, but we KNOW McDrai can basically drag any team through the regular season. This is about playoffs and we need those holes filled because we have seen multiple times now that McDrai by themselves arent good enough to last through playoffs. I dont know if we should be panicking but those are serious issues for a STANLEY CUP aspiring team.

We are done with rebuild, reg season success is tablestakes. Its whats expected. How do you realistically fill those holes before playoffs?