Confirmed with Link: Skinner traded to Buffalo for 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and prospect

[tarheelhockey]

I did a player vs. player breakdown for us vs. New Jersey. I think this is useless, but you guys seem to be intent on comparing lineup spot to lineup spot and not taking the entire picture into account.

The Devils are a consensus playoff team right now, despite being the only team with a lower payroll than us. So tell me, how are we so much worse than they are?

Taylor Hall vs. Sebastian Aho (edge NJ)
Nico Hischier vs. Andrei Svechnikov (edge CAR)
Kyle Palmieri vs. Teuvo Teravainen (edge even)
Marcus Johansson vs. Martin Necas (edge NJ)
Pavel Zacha vs. Valentin Zykov (edge NJ)
Jesper Bratt vs. Micheal Ferland (edge CAR)
Travis Zajac vs. Jordan Staal (edge CAR)
Blake Coleman vs. Brock McGinn (edge even)
Stefan Noesen vs. Justin Williams (edge CAR)
Brian Boyle vs. Victor Rask (edge NJ)
Miles Wood vs. Warren Foegele (edge NJ)
Joseph Anderson vs. Jordan Martinook (edge even)
Forward: NJ 5, CAR 4, even 3

Sami Vatanen vs. Dougie Hamilton (edge CAR)
Andy Greene vs. Jaccob Slavin (edge CAR)
Will Butcher vs. Justin Faulk (edge NJ)
Damon Severson vs. Brett Pesce (edge CAR)
Mirco Mueller vs. Calvin de Haan (edge CAR)
Steven Santini vs. Trevor van Riemsdyk (edge CAR)
Defense: CAR 5, NJ 1

Keith Kinkaid vs. Scott Darling (edge NJ)
Cory Schneider vs. Petr Mrazek (edge NJ)
Goaltending: NJ 2, CAR 0

Total: CAR 9, NJ 8, even 3

Sure, the difference in goal looks huge. But NJ owes Schneider (who seems to have lost his starters job to Kinkaid) $24 million over the next four seasons. Kinkaid was .913, 2.77 last season. Schneider was .907, 2.93. They also have the absolutely horrid Eddie Lack under contract in the NHL for a grand total of $7.9 million for goalies. Their 5-on-5 save pct. last season was .917, good for seventh worst in the league. Do you think they're excited about Kinkaid/Schneider/Lack this coming season? What do you think the chances are that the same two guys, plus Lack, improve on the seventh worst 5-on-5 save percentage in the league this year?

But the Devils are a clear playoff contender and we're not.

First, the Devils might be a pre-season bet to make the playoffs but they are very much a bubble team. We aren’t comparing ourselves to a contender here, we’re comparing ourselves to a team that could finish 12th and nobody would blink.

Second, you got that final score by assuming that Svechnikov will be flat-out better than Hischier this year. Why? Hischier scored 52 points last season as a rookie and it’s completely fair to think he’ll break past 60 this year. What are you expecting from Svechnikov that’s going to beat that so cleanly?

Third, Marcus Johansson isn’t a world beater but he’s a solid bet for 20-30-50 as long as he’s not ruined by concussion. Necas would have to do pretty darn well to hit 20-30-50 as a rookie. How is Necas a clear-cut better player here? This is more like a push (concussion vs rookie) that leans toward Johansson.

Fourth, who cares what they’re paying Schneider? They’re spending money to have a WAY better goalie than us. That sounds like a very good idea to me.

 

[My Special Purpose]

What I’m saying is we can argue this into the dirt in the off-season, but the odds are pretty heavily slanted against 100% of our new players coming in and succeeding. That doesn’t happen, and especially when you’ve got a ****load of transition and uncertainty happening at every level and the new guys are having to carve out roles for themselves rather than just stepping in with a clearly-defined job to do.

If I had to guess for the sake of conversation? Ferland is unlikely to look as good offensively on this team, which would make him another late-career Ruutu type. Martinook is a 4th line grinder whose impact is likely to be negligible no matter what happens. I choose not to project bad outcomes onto Svechnikov or Necas because I don’t want to even think about what this roster looks like if one of those guys struggles.

I think the disconnect between our views on this offseason come down to our definitions of the words I bolded above.

IMO, all Ferland, Foegele, Zykov and Martinook have to do in order to "succeed," is to show up every night, compete hard and play a fast, 200-foot game. If that is *all* they do -- regardless of numbers -- they will already be better than Stempniak, Nordstrom and Ryan, who all were, quite frankly, pansies last season.

And when it comes to the stud prospects, they may not produce the counting stats of Lindholm + Skinner, but again, if they show up every night to compete at both ends of the rink, we'll win more games as a result. IMO, it will be hard for them to "struggle" if they do this. Their numbers may not be where we would want them in a perfect world, but we'll be a better team. If they come to camp with the mindset to outwork whoever they are matched up against, the stats will come. But more importantly, so will the wins.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The Devils are a clear playoff contender and we're not, because the Devils tend to make the playoffs when given the opportunity, and we don't.

The X factors for this season are Darling bouncing back and Rod's coaching. If either one of those isn't up to snuff, this team is boned.

 

[Scott Malkinson]

Cliff Pu is a really good prospect.

 

[My Special Purpose]

First, the Devils might be a pre-season bet to make the playoffs but they are very much a bubble team. We aren’t comparing ourselves to a contender here, we’re comparing ourselves to a team that could finish 12th and nobody would blink.

We're reading different previews. And keep in mind, the fact that we compare favorably to a team that could finish 12th even helps my point, since your point is that we're stupid and we will probably finish 32nd in a league of 31 teams.

Second, you got that final score by assuming that Svechnikov will be flat-out better than Hischier this year. Why? Hischier scored 52 points last season as a rookie and it’s completely fair to think he’ll break past 60 this year. What are you expecting from Svechnikov that’s going to beat that so cleanly?

I'm not looking at the counting stats like you are. I'm looking at who's the better player. The only thing Hischier has on Svech is that he's 14 months older. Otherwise, Svech is just plain better. NJ would trade Hischier for Svech. If the 2017 and 2018 drafts were combined, Svech would go before Hischier. Nobody in the NHL takes Hischier over Svech.

Third, Marcus Johansson isn’t a world beater but he’s a solid bet for 20-30-50 as long as he’s not ruined by concussion. Necas would have to do pretty darn well to hit 20-30-50 as a rookie. How is Necas a clear-cut better player here? This is more like a push (concussion vs rookie) that leans toward Johansson.

Again, I'm looking at more than just counting stats, but in this case, I have Johansson as a clear win over Necas. Not sure what you saw.

Fourth, who cares what they’re paying Schneider? They’re spending money to have a WAY better goalie than us. That sounds like a very good idea to me.

The point is, Schneider isn't *way* better. He was well below league average, and it will cost $6 million this year to have him backing up a guy who was also below league average. How would paying $6 million for a below average goalie solve our problem? Pretty much the same way as paying $6 million for Rick Nash would solve our top-9 LW problem.

 

[My Special Purpose]

For next season?

Ryan over Necas, based on on-ice play. But not at the contract he got. I think Necas is super skilled, but I’m worried about him getting the Brandon Sutter treatment, and getting thrown to the wolves before he’s physically ready.

The other two easily go for the kids. I don’t know if you compared those specific players on purpose, but Zykov score as many goals in 10 games as Stempniak did in 37. Foegele scores twice in two games, Nordstrom scores twice in 75, and I’m pretty sure one of those was an empty netter.

Mental gymnastics, made necessary by not wanting to acknowledge you're wrong on a very basic point (i.e. Martin Necas is a better hockey player than Derek Ryan).

 

[A Star is Burns]

Kev is fairly optimistic and (aligning it with my views) the voice of reason. What a time to be alive.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Kev is fairly optimistic and (aligning it with my views) the voice of reason. What a time to be alive.

It really is a bizarro time to be a Canes fan.

 

[tarheelhockey]

We assume that Ferland and Martinook will be harder to play against because we’ve actually seen all four play over several years. They have established history in the league.

We could’ve said the same about Marcus Kruger last year. Hawks fans were crazy for the guy (and Nordstrom) and everyone was sure he was our solution at 4C. I loved that signing. Dude came in here and looked like a fish out of water. It happens... a lot. It’s overwhelmingly likely to happen to at least one of the guys we are writing into our lineup in ink right now.

I’m not saying either of Martinook or Ferland was a bad acquisition, far from it. But each of the new guys is a roll of the dice and if I had to project, those (especially Ferland) are the two I could see struggling to adjust.

Your right some of the rookies might not have the greatest year but burying them in the minors when several have proven ready for a shot is not the answer. You assume things about players every year. Even established players can come out and crap the bed.

Again, Svechnikov is a no-brainer to play in Carolina and Necas certainly looks ready for his shot. Zykov? We hope so. Foegele? I mean, maybe? Who knows. If we talk about any one of these guys in isolation, the projection can be positive. But that’s FOUR rookies. If we have that many rookies in our lineup and none of them struggle, it will be incredible. Even if only Svech and Necas hold their own for an entire season with no injuries or droughts, that will be a hell of a thing. But it’s unlikely to happen. Much more likely is that 1-3 of these guys has a long stretch where we say “oh **** this kid looks in over his head”. And at that point we have a serious problem with this lineup, because the rookies are being written into roles where they have to carry the mail.

Not saying this team is that because I’m not expecting to make the playoffs.

Don’t you feel like even that is a significant step back from last season? This time last year, most everyone felt we would be a playoff contender in 2018 and a playoff lock by 2019. Now we’re talking about this like it’s a development season during a rebuild.

Rod is a wild card and I don’t expect him to jump in and be a savior. Wasn’t my favorite decision but it’s whatever, it’s not like the guy just jumped into a HC position from a front office. You would hope he wasn’t just sitting on the bench knocking his pud and actually watched and learned some of the fundamentals to coaching and has been thinking and planning a system.

I mean, we said these exact same things about Muller and Peters. And those are the guys who Rod was emulating all those years.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I was just thinking earlier that this feels like bizarro forum 26

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think the disconnect between our views on this offseason come down to our definitions of the words I bolded above.

IMO, all Ferland, Foegele, Zykov and Martinook have to do in order to "succeed," is to show up every night, compete hard and play a fast, 200-foot game. If that is *all* they do -- regardless of numbers -- they will already be better than Stempniak, Nordstrom and Ryan, who all were, quite frankly, pansies last season.

And when it comes to the stud prospects, they may not produce the counting stats of Lindholm + Skinner, but again, if they show up every night to compete at both ends of the rink, we'll win more games as a result. IMO, it will be hard for them to "struggle" if they do this. Their numbers may not be where we would want them in a perfect world, but we'll be a better team. If they come to camp with the mindset to outwork whoever they are matched up against, the stats will come. But more importantly, so will the wins.

We were in the bottom-third of the league offensively last season. If these guys do in fact show up and play hard and not produce numbers, we will be contending for bottom-5.

With what will surely be among the worst goaltending in the league.

At this point it’s just math. If we’re terrible offensively and let in lots of goals, we won’t win games.

 

[Boats Ahoes]

All the players we got rid of this offseason are either glaring defensive liabilities (Skinner, Hanifin) or straight up bad hockey players (Stephniak, Ryan, Nordstrom). I'm happy that we're cutting ties with our dead weight rather than icing the same lineups that we know don't win games. Outside of my disappointment in us bringing back Darling, we are pretty clearly a better team now than we were last season.

 

[My Special Purpose]

We were in the bottom-third of the league offensively last season. If these guys do in fact show up and play hard and not produce numbers, we will be contending for bottom-5.

With what will surely be among the worst goaltending in the league.

At this point it’s just math. If we’re terrible offensively and let in lots of goals, we won’t win games.

I get that. I really do. But I think you're overly focused on the numbers and not how we got to the numbers. Obviously, we gave up a lot of goals because our goalies sucked. But we also gave up a lot of goals because guys like Skinner, Ryan, Faulk, Nordstrom, Stempniak, etc. were terrible and overmatched most nights. What you're not taking into account is that this affects offense, too. I think you're being too compartmentalized when you look at the team as it's currently constructed. And again, I get it. It's the offseason, so compartmentalizing is easy because there's no way to look at the team as one entity because they haven't played together yet.

But having better, harder-working players will help both ends of the ice. We'll score more goals -- not because we have more offensive skill -- but because we'll generate more odd-man rushes with better backchecking and stronger players. Again, it's the difference between looking at individual matchups vs. looking at the entire 20-vs.-20 picture.

I don't know if we're going to score more goals. I don't know if we're going to allow fewer. What I do know is that we're a better hockey team. And a better hockey team usually produces better stats. In the end, this is how I think you build a winning program. You get better players and let the numbers sort themselves out.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

At this point it’s just math. If we’re terrible offensively and let in lots of goals, we won’t win games.

Nah, didn't you hear Waddell? He's not worried about scoring goals. He's worried about winning.

Which I suppose is good, because I'm worried about winning too. On account of our inability to score goals.

 

[My Special Purpose]

2) They could still trade Faulk for something that helps address the gaping holes in the roster. Granted that puts McKeown or Fox in the lineup, but at least maybe we get a C or a real goalie and can proceed from the standpoint of having a complete starting lineup to put on the ice.

It doesn't. At this point, we have four NHL right defensemen (Hamilton, Pesce, Faulk, van Riemsdyk). Trading Faulk amounts to getting something for nothing.

 

[tarheelhockey]

We're reading different previews. And keep in mind, the fact that we compare favorably to a team that could finish 12th even helps my point, since your point is that we're stupid and we will probably finish 32nd in a league of 31 teams.

We probably are reading different previews. Do you see one that shows Carolina ahead of New Jersey?

I'm not looking at the counting stats like you are. I'm looking at who's the better player. The only thing Hischier has on Svech is that he's 14 months older. Otherwise, Svech is just plain better. NJ would trade Hischier for Svech. If the 2017 and 2018 drafts were combined, Svech would go before Hischier. Nobody in the NHL takes Hischier over Svech.

I’m not saying I’d draft Hischier over him, I’m saying Hischier’s second season is fully likely to be better than Svechnikov’s first season. If Svech blows past 60 points this season I’ll be crazy happy with him and his Calder.

The point is, Schneider isn't *way* better. He was well below league average, and it will cost $6 million this year to have him backing up a guy who was also below league average. How would paying $6 million for a below average goalie solve our problem? Pretty much the same way as paying $6 million for Rick Nash would solve our top-9 LW problem.

Schneider actually is a way better goalie than Darling. How on earth is it not worth an extra $2 million to upgrade from Darling to Schneider?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

It doesn't. At this point, we have four NHL right defensemen (Hamilton, Pesce, Faulk, van Riemsdyk). Trading Faulk amounts to getting something for nothing.

Oh good, that'll offset trading Skinner for nothing.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Schneider actually is a way better goalie than Darling. How on earth is it not worth an extra $2 million to upgrade from Darling to Schneider?

It is. But that's not on the table.

How do you suggest we go about spending $2 million and upgrading from Darling to Schneider? Should we offer Darling straight up for Schneider? I'm quite certain Dundon would do that if you can get NJ to agree.

In other words, it will cost a *lot* more than $2 million to "upgrade" to a guy who was below the league average and will make $24 million over the next four seasons.

What if we were to trade Buffalo's second that we just got for Skinner for Schneider? Would that make you happy? So now we'd have $11.5 million on the books for *three* below average goalies *for the next three seasons!*

Are you starting to see the issue with upgrading goaltending yet?

 

[AeroFishOne]

We could’ve said the same about Marcus Kruger last year. Hawks fans were crazy for the guy (and Nordstrom) and everyone was sure he was our solution at 4C. I loved that signing. Dude came in here and looked like a fish out of water. It happens... a lot. It’s overwhelmingly likely to happen to at least one of the guys we are writing into our lineup in ink right now.

I’m not saying either of Martinook or Ferland was a bad acquisition, far from it. But each of the new guys is a roll of the dice and if I had to project, those (especially Ferland) are the two I could see struggling to adjust.



Again, Svechnikov is a no-brainer to play in Carolina and Necas certainly looks ready for his shot. Zykov? We hope so. Foegele? I mean, maybe? Who knows. If we talk about any one of these guys in isolation, the projection can be positive. But that’s FOUR rookies. If we have that many rookies in our lineup and none of them struggle, it will be incredible. Even if only Svech and Necas hold their own for an entire season with no injuries or droughts, that will be a hell of a thing. But it’s unlikely to happen. Much more likely is that 1-3 of these guys has a long stretch where we say “oh **** this kid looks in over his head”. And at that point we have a serious problem with this lineup, because the rookies are being written into roles where they have to carry the mail.



Don’t you feel like even that is a significant step back from last season? This time last year, most everyone felt we would be a playoff contender in 2018 and a playoff lock by 2019. Now we’re talking about this like it’s a development season during a rebuild.



I mean, we said these exact same things about Muller and Peters. And those are the guys who Rod was emulating all those years.

We are in agreement about the rookies, I expect a couple to struggle at points but we have pretty good depth where we can move others in and out as needed on the 3rd and 4 line. I’m not too worried about Mclovin and Zykov. They both could probably luck in to as many points as Nordstrom,Kruger and Stempniak, But as far as the roll of the dice, it doesn’t mean that you have to stick with everything if you have other options readily available not including the goalie situation, even though I could see Ned getting some time if both struggle.

As far as the step back, it’s all about what you want out of this team. Yeah if you just want to sniff the panties of the playoffs that’s fine but I’m much rather move to third base and maybe take it home if we’re lucky. I don’t really think it’s a step back to be honest. If we get average goaltending from either of the two then we would be in a good position I imagine, I honestly think we could have a much improved team and still not make the playoffs. Sucks but such is life when your in a division that has Washington, Pittsburgh, and a Couple other teams that have done a better job sucking and have put themselves in a better position for the future. All likely hood you might’ve been waiting for the decline of Washington and Pittsburgh before we saw any real success in the playoffs again. If we end up sucking to high hell, atleast we might have a decent chance at getting a 1st overall or another 2nd that could impact the team next year.

In all seriousness though, I really think you’re doing yourself a disservice if you give up after this season. I’d give it until the end of 2019-2020. Respect as I said either way if you stick to your guns but I’d really give this vision a chance for more then 1 year.

Edit: about the rookies I don’t expect Svech and Necas to suck it up but if they do,that would obviously be more of an issues. Still think the likely hood of Svech coming out and having a 5 goal season is extremely low.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Oh good, that'll offset trading Skinner for nothing.

Mark my words, we're going to end up winning the Jeff Skinner trade. We got four assets for one season of an underachieving, one-dimensional, third-line winger who peaked at 18, and who will still probably con some team into paying him $7 million a season as a UFA. I can't wait until he's minus-30 for Buffalo, while they're in line for another top-5 pick and trying to peddle him for anything they can get at the deadline, when he'll only accept a trade to Toronto.

 

[Boats Ahoes]

Don’t you feel like even that is a significant step back from last season? This time last year, most everyone felt we would be a playoff contender in 2018 and a playoff lock by 2019. Now we’re talking about this like it’s a development season during a rebuild.

This time last year, we expected that Skinner had finally overcome his consistency/effort issues, Hanifin would start showing some development, and Lindholm would finally take that offensive step we've been expecting for a while. What we got instead was Skinner reverting back to his old ineffective puck-hog ways while playing less than 0 defense, Lindholm being the exact same soft 40-point player he's been since 2014, and Hanifin continuing to suck enormous gorilla ****.

So yes, our expectations weren't met. We got rid of just about all the players who failed to meet our expectations. Fine by me

 

[tarheelhockey]

I get that. I really do. But I think you're overly focused on the numbers and not how we got to the numbers. Obviously, we gave up a lot of goals because our goalies sucked. But we also gave up a lot of goals because guys like Skinner, Ryan, Faulk, Nordstrom, Stempniak, etc. were terrible and overmatched most nights. What you're not taking into account is that this affects offense, too. I think you're being too compartmentalized when you look at the team as it's currently constructed. And again, I get it. It's the offseason, so compartmentalizing is easy because there's no way to look at the team as one entity because they haven't played together yet.

But having better, harder-working players will help both ends of the ice. We'll score more goals -- not because we have more offensive skill -- but because we'll generate more odd-man rushes with better backchecking and stronger players. Again, it's the difference between looking at individual matchups vs. looking at the entire 20-vs.-20 picture.

I don't know if we're going to score more goals. I don't know if we're going to allow fewer. What I do know is that we're a better hockey team. And a better hockey team usually produces better stats. In the end, this is how I think you build a winning program. You get better players and let the numbers sort themselves out.

I’m totally willing to accept this line of thinking, except that I need to see it to believe it. It’s a hell of a high bar to clear, especially when you actually start assigning out the numbers and realize how many guys would need to have a great season.

It is. But that's not on the table.

How do you suggest we go about spending $2 million and upgrading from Darling to Schneider? Should we offer Darling straight up for Schneider? I'm quite certain Dundon would do that if you can get NJ to agree.

I don’t get your logic here. You were saying NJ has Schneider at a big cap hit and that’s bad. But Schneider is MUCH better than the goalie we’re overpaying in our own right. It’s clearly better to be NJ with Schneider at $6M than to be CAR with Darling at $4M, because one of these teams has a way better goalie (and therefore a decent shot at the playoffs) and the other has $2M to not spend on anything.

Of course I don’t have a plan to trick Jersey into trading goalies. If I thought that would work, I’d be pounding on the door of PNC Arena demanding to talk to Don Waddell immediately. But it won’t work, because Jersey wouldn’t make that swap, because their situation is obviously better than ours.

So again, I’m not even sure where to go with this.

 

[bleedgreen]

The Devil’s had the league mvp. Literally the best guy in the league at making a difference this last year. They also have goaltending. Those are bigger differences than checking a box. They’re bigger than the difference between Staal and Zajac. Some of those matchups have to be weighted more than others.

Anyways I don’t know how Svech has the edge over Hishier. If Svech puts up a matching season I’m doing cartwheels. He hasn’t played a game so I don’t see how you can give him the edge. I’d also take Palmieri over TT but that’s all personal preference, I guess I could see an argument the other way. I just don’t agree.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Maybe it was mentioned before, but with the Skinner trade, every player drafted in the top 10 of the 2010 draft, with the exception of Granlund, has now been traded. Kind of bizarre.

 

[Breakdowns]

This thread is like freaky friday, roles have changed by many posters, I don't know how to feel about it