Should Marner's next contract be similar to what Nikita Kucherov is getting?

[Notsince67]

We're not comparing Marner at 21 versus Kucherov at 21, and who may provide more over the first X years of their career. We're comparing what Marner is likely to do over the 8 years of his deal, and what Kucherov is likely to do over the 8 years of his -- which cover the exact same time period so no need for cap hit percentages to compare different time periods.

Reality is, last year Marner had 69 points in 82 games. Kucherov had 100, with close to double the amount of goals.

This year, Marner is pacing around 110, Kucherov is pacing close to 130, and has 50 percent more goals.

Sure, you can make the case that Marner is closing the gap, but Kucherov should just be entering his prime, so he should still be improving as well. Until Marner figures out how to be a consistent goalscoring threat like Kucherov, he's unlikely to be better than him.


edit: With respect to the comparisons relative to other players that have had 40 assists in each of their first 3 seasons. Take Patrick Kane's 3rd season as an example... 2009-10. The median team was scoring 2.68 goals per game. This year, the median team is scoring 2.97. Scoring is up 10% over that period anyways.

My comment reflected that Marner would likely eliminate any gap within 2 years. He is pretty close now. He has been an over 90 point guy for over 82 consecutive regular season games. His first 2 seasons were on teams that were considerably weaker than what Kucherov started with.

 

[seanlinden]

My comment reflected that Marner would likely eliminate any gap within 2 years. He is pretty close now. He has been an over 90 point guy for over 82 consecutive regular season games. His first 2 seasons were on teams that were considerably weaker than what Kucherov started with.

Marner is nowhere close right now.

Even if you assume that Kucherov comes back down to reality at 110 points, and Marner continues his pace of 110 points, Kucherov scores substantially more than Marner does.

In 2 years Kucherov will only be 27. He's still improving right now, just maybe not at the same pace as Marner.

 

[81Leafs50]

from 2000-2019 the best assists per 60 mins players. Look at the goals/60 of the players I highlighted. Are any of them 10 mill players at any point in their careers?

I think Getzlaf is the highest paid of the bunch at the moment. $8.25 mill, but hes the franchise and the captain.

who of the bunch would be a 10 mill player as a UFA?? I dont think any are.

So why is Marner the only exception to the rule?

Is it just Toronto hype?

 

[Notsince67]

Marner is nowhere close right now.

Even if you assume that Kucherov comes back down to reality at 110 points, and Marner continues his pace of 110 points, Kucherov scores substantially more than Marner does.

In 2 years Kucherov will only be 27. He's still improving right now, just maybe not at the same pace as Marner.

Say what?

 

[81Leafs50]

When it comes to getting paid and prioritizing the general rule is ..

Centres >> Wingers
&
Goal Scorers >> Playmakers

So Marner will make less $$ than Matthews and Tavares (both C) and also because they're goal scorers and he is the playmaker, and it doesn't matter if he scores more points than both as he likely will, putting him #3 on Leafs pay scale next year.

Marner's agent I agree will look for playmaking comparables for his client to secure his next contract, but I do believe his agent will push for Mitch to be the highest paid Cap World winger (AAV) in history with potentially double digit figures in the millions.

Dubas will push back that he isn't willing to give him Jack Eichel money at $10 mil AAV (because Jack in a #1C) and Marner is a #1RW.

Yes i agree with this.

So if tavares is an 11 mill player than i see Marner as a $9mill (at the MAX) player

 

[81Leafs50]

The rumour is, the Leafs offered a crap deal to Stamkos. It was only 5 years.

i have heard many people talk about the Leafs offer to Stamkos and not a single person said it was for less years or money.

 

[LeafFever]

i have heard many people talk about the Leafs offer to Stamkos and not a single person said it was for less years or money.

I have. I got that info from other people. I myself have no sources.

 

[LeafFever]

BTW, it's ironic we are talking about state tax advantage, on Hockey Central an hour ago, they stated it no longer even matters. The bonus $ the Leafs are paying is something 90% of the teams in the NHL cannot do. So the Leafs now have a bigger advantage than the state tax issue. That's also aside from possible bigger endoresement deals.

How many teams could pay Nylander 8.3 million on July 2nd in U.S dollars? Anyone know how much more $ that is than spreading it out over 6 years? In terms of interest, it's a lot more $.
In essence, Nylander is making more $ than we are seeing in dollars due to these massive bonuses.

 

[Menzinger]

The tax situation is way overblown. Yzerman is just a very good negotiator and Tampa is a fantastic market to play in - great weather, low media pressure and an owner whose still willing to spend to win. A very envious situation to be in.

Marner’s agent will ask for a Eichel, Dubas will counter with a comparison in the 7.5 mil range and they’ll compromise around 8.5-9 mil

Now as to how long that takes, will come down to how stubborn Marner’s dad and agent are

 

[Ziggdiezan]

BTW, it's ironic we are talking about state tax advantage, on Hockey Central an hour ago, they stated it no longer even matters. The bonus $ the Leafs are paying is something 90% of the teams in the NHL cannot do. So the Leafs now have a bigger advantage than the state tax issue. That's also aside from possible bigger endoresement deals.
How many teams could pay Nylander 8.3 million on July 2nd in U.S dollars? Anyone know how much more $ that is than spreading it out over 6 years? In terms of interest, it's a lot more $.
In essence, Nylander is making more $ than we are seeing in dollars due to these massive bonuses.

A big fact of front loading these contracts is the player is able to invest their money right away and start seeing big returns.

Then there is the whole all players get paid in USD and pay the tax in the city they play in.

 

[LeafFever]

A big fact of front loading these contracts is the player is able to invest their money right away and start seeing big returns.

Then there is the whole all players get paid in USD and pay the tax in the city they play in.

Yup. Nylander can get millions more in investments, and the Leafs don't give a crap and can do it. It does not affect the cap.
Rangers, Flyers can do that maybe, who else? Betwwen Marleau and Nylander, Leafs are starting July with shelling-out over 11 million U.S in 1 day.

That's why it's hilarious hearing Arizona has the $ to offersheet Matthews. They lost 50 million last season as per Forbes.

 

[Mess]

Yes i agree with this.

So if tavares is an 11 mill player than i see Marner as a $9mill (at the MAX) player

Matthews will be the highest paid Leaf and come in above Tavares and Marner will the 3rd highest paid Leaf and come in below Tavares.

Essentially JT is Matthews Floor and Marner's ceiling for how they will slot in..

It will not matter if Marner leads the team in scoring and Matthews finishes 3rd as this is about more than points and includes position played and goals scored.

The more points Marner scores however the closer he will come to bumping his head on his JT ceiling where his number might start with a $10 and not a $9 if its 90 points on the season.

 

[81Leafs50]

Matthews will be the highest paid Leaf and come in above Tavares and Marner will the 3rd highest paid Leaf and come in below Tavares.

Essentially JT is Matthews Floor and Marner's ceiling for how they will slot in..

It will not matter if Marner leads the team in scoring and Matthews finishes 3rd as this is about more than points and includes position played and goals scored.

The more points Marner scores however the closer he will come to bumping his head on his JT ceiling where his number might start with a $10 and not a $9 if its 90 points on the season.

If the Leafs pay Marner anything over $9mill it will be a HUGE mistake in every sense.

 

[ACC1224]

The tax situation is way overblown. Yzerman is just a very good negotiator and Tampa is a fantastic market to play in - great weather, low media pressure and an owner whose still willing to spend to win. A very envious situation to be in.

Marner’s agent will ask for a Eichel, Dubas will counter with a comparison in the 7.5 mil range and they’ll compromise around 8.5-9 mil

Now as to how long that takes, will come down to how stubborn Marner’s dad and agent are

He'll have to start higher than that.

 

[Randy Randerson]

It's hard to see Marner getting more than Kucherov imo - Kucherov's new contract kicks in at the same time as Marner's will so the cap inflation is probably already accounted for unless its a much larger than expected number, and Kucherov's contract was 1 RFA year + 7 UFA years where Marner's will be 4 RFA years + 2-4 UFA years. Kucherov had a season that Marner is not likely to surpass with 100pts and 39 goals, I think Marner lands in a similar point range with less goals.

I could see Marner getting $1M/season less than Kucherov and that still being a good deal for Marner

 

[Menzinger]

He'll have to start higher than that.

Maybe, but in a negotiation strategy teams tend to start off with a lowball offer. I would suspect somebody like Tarasenko might be used by Dubas as the first comparison and then they’ll go up from there.

 

[ACC1224]

Maybe, but in a negotiation strategy teams tend to start off with a lowball offer. I would suspect somebody like Tarasenko might be used by Dubas as the first comparison and then they’ll go up from there.

How much do you think Marner turned down in the summer?

 

[Menzinger]

How much do you think Marner turned down in the summer?

I have no idea really.

They probably made a 8 year offer on the cheaper side (7-7.5) to see if he’d bite.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Matthews, Marner ETC will also make a lot more $ in commercials revenue than they ever will in Florida. There was an article about how much more Tavares is making.
I agree the NHL has to address the tax issue, as it gives certain teams an unfair advantage, and that was not the goal of a hard cap.

Yes JT got another 3+M per in deals from a couple Leaf sponsors but how many can the Leafs give out nudge nudge wink wink. JT was not taking any discounts. But the story line on that was played beautifully for the fans. Mitch and Matty now want their money too. And Leafs will figure it out inside the legal scope of the CBA.

 

[ACC1224]

I have no idea really.

They probably made a 8 year offer on the cheaper side (7-7.5) to see if he’d bite.

Good guess.
Why would you think Dubas would offer that again after the season Mitch is having?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Marner will sit and wait for the $10M per year deal. When it comes he will sign it. If it doesn't come then he'll see where things stand on July 1st. Who knows where things go from there. I have my doubts about him getting offer sheeted but it might happen. No one will know exactly where things stand until July 1st. My guess is Leafs think he will back off what he wants and who knows maybe he will. This is not an exact science. I would be curious to know what Leafs offered him too. Clearly it pi**ed him off enough for Paul to tell everyone around him what he needed. Dubas must have thought this was going to go a lot easier than it has. I think it is great that he is smiling through the entire thing.

I hear from my hockey dad friends in Winnipeg that Laine may very well check things out on July 1st too. What a crazy world that will be if Marner, Matty and Laine all wait. But I think Matty will sign before then. I thought it may go down over holidays but I guess it is not quite done.

 

[Menzinger]

Good guess.
Why would you think Dubas would offer that again after the season Mitch is having?

To keep the final contract as low as possible.

I don’t think he’s going to stubbornly stick to that number - but if the Marner side is going to ask on the high side (and all signs seem to point that way), it’ll ideally help the final number be more reasonable.

I suspect the Leafs initial offer to Nylander was on the low end of the spectrum too.

 

[ACC1224]

To keep the final contract as low as possible.

I don’t think he’s going to stubbornly stick to that number - but if the Marner side is going to ask on the high side (and all signs seem to point that way), it’ll ideally help the final number be more reasonable.

I suspect the Leafs initial offer to Nylander was on the low end of the spectrum too.

I don't see the point of wasting time by insulting the player you want to sign.
Sure you want the best deal possible but logic and reason also need to be applied.

I have no idea what they offered Nylander.

 

[Menzinger]

I don't see the point of wasting time by insulting the player you want to sign.
Sure you want the best deal possible but logic and reason also need to be applied.

I have no idea what they offered Nylander.

I don’t think it’s necessarily an insult though.

Problem is folks in this thread are presuming the contract will be for eight years, and I would say there may be the potential for a shorter term deal.

If Marner’s side digs in firm that an 8 year deal has to be like 10 million we may see the Leafs respond by pushing for a 5-6 year deal.

It’ll come down to how smoothly the negotiations go and the strategy Dubas and Pridham have for the Leafs cap structure moving forward

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I hope Dubas does not take the same approach for Marner as he did for Nylander but I fear he is. I understand the #1 focus right now is Matty so Dubas lets get er done. It will be a nice surprise and should give team a lift before playoffs. But don't wait out Marner until seasons end and call his bluff on July 1st.