Should Marner's next contract be similar to what Nikita Kucherov is getting?

[seanlinden]

Connor signed his a year in advance with 1 year left on his ELC whereas Matthews is on an expiring one and his signing will be 2019 as opposed to 2017.

Only if Matthews would already be signed for next year would they only be 1 year apart.

McDavid and Eichel signed 2017 based on $75.6 mil vs Matthews signed 2019 based on projected $83 mil.

Yes he did... and my point is that the cap has gone up basically every year by $2-4m.

Both McDavid and Eichel signed knowing that the cap would be taking another jump up before the contract kicked in, which is why the comparison is much more useful on 1st year cap hit percentage, rather than when the contract was signed.

Heck, by your approach, if Matthews signs on June 30th, or next week, officially capfriendly should use the $79.5m to calculate his percentage, which at 15% would put him at $11.9m.

The only way they become more than 1 year apart on an 8 year deal is if Matthews signs a short term deal and procrastinated his 8 year.

Otherwise, his 8 year will kick in 1 year after Eichel/McDavid, and end 1 year prior.

 

[Nineteen67]

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman is expecting an increase of the league's salary cap to roughly $83 million for the 2019-20 season. The NHL is projecting a salary cap of roughly $83-million for next season, per Gary Bettman.Dec 3, 2018

NHL projects $83M salary cap for 2019-20 season - Sportsnet.ca

I heard that....that’s using the escalator that increases the escrow I don’t think it’ll go up more than 3%.

 

[New Liskeard]

As much as I like Marner, Kucherov is the better player and Marner should not get his contract. Kucherov scores more goals than Marner for starters.

 

[Drytoast]

As much as I like Marner, Kucherov is the better player and Marner should not get his contract. Kucherov scores more goals than Marner for starters.

Said Pasternak to Nylander.

 

[hizzoner]

With a cap of 83 million and with the max for one player set at 20% that means top salary for superstar generational player is set next year at $16.67 million. Assuming the cap goes up 2.5 % a year--excluding counting the percentage increases on the annual increases-then 8 years from now the cap is about 100 million. So 8 years from now the max for our superstar hero is 20 million. A player who takes a 35% haircut on the max for the upcoming year and is taking a 50% haircut on the last year of his deal. Is this what Leaf fans/brass expect from Mathews and Marner?

 

[Liminality]

With a cap of 83 million and with the max for one player set at 20% that means top salary for superstar generational player is set next year at $16.67 million. Assuming the cap goes up 2.5 % a year--excluding counting the percentage increases on the annual increases-then 8 years from now the cap is about 100 million. So 8 years from now the max for our superstar hero is 20 million. A player who takes a 35% haircut on the max for the upcoming year and is taking a 50% haircut on the last year of his deal. Is this what Leaf fans/brass expect from Mathews and Marner?

Expensive haircuts? I don't know about that, they'll probably just get Nylander's barber.

 

[hizzoner]

so like $15 million each for 8 years?

 

[thewave]

Easy promise to keep. See you Dufus I mean Dubas.

The quotes this guy gives are unbelievable how anyone can say this is a smart man is crazy. Shut your pie hole Dubas.

Glad you see through the facade.

 

[Nineteen67]

With a cap of 83 million and with the max for one player set at 20% that means top salary for superstar generational player is set next year at $16.67 million. Assuming the cap goes up 2.5 % a year--excluding counting the percentage increases on the annual increases-then 8 years from now the cap is about 100 million. So 8 years from now the max for our superstar hero is 20 million. A player who takes a 35% haircut on the max for the upcoming year and is taking a 50% haircut on the last year of his deal. Is this what Leaf fans/brass expect from Mathews and Marner?

Exactly....superstar players shouldn’t sign long term under this CBA.

 

[LeafFever]

No he got 7.5 his stats suggested 6.0.

6.0? The athletic went into all analysis and came up with 6.7-7.2
6 million is low-balling him. You can't do that.

The thing about Nylander is he had 2 61 point seasons. All the other young players you would mention like pastynak, Larkin, Draisaitl had 1, even if they exceeded 61.
He is simply not a 6 million player in 2018

 

[Ziggdiezan]

6.0? The athletic went into all analysis and came up with 6.7-7.2
6 million is low-balling him. You can't do that.

The thing about Nylander is he had 2 61 point seasons. All the other young players you would mention like pastynak, Larkin, Draisaitl had 1, even if they exceeded 61.
He is simply not a 6 million player in 2018

Did they have the contract at 6 years?

I think it is pretty simple, leafs slightly overpaid when looking at comparables, only 1 UFA bought is the biggest reason why.

However it wasnt too much of a overpayment and he will be well worth it soon enough.

 

[Superstar]

With a cap of 83 million and with the max for one player set at 20% that means top salary for superstar generational player is set next year at $16.67 million. Assuming the cap goes up 2.5 % a year--excluding counting the percentage increases on the annual increases-then 8 years from now the cap is about 100 million. So 8 years from now the max for our superstar hero is 20 million. A player who takes a 35% haircut on the max for the upcoming year and is taking a 50% haircut on the last year of his deal. Is this what Leaf fans/brass expect from Mathews and Marner?

If only it's that simple. You don't get long-term "guaranteed" money and also get max money. Many fail to see the team giving the contract also take alot of risk, especially long-term expensive contracts...that's why it's a negotiation...now, if the NHLPA is willing to agree that teams have the right to claw-back money for under-performance, you might have something...but that will never happen...so as of right now, players don't get max money up to the allowable cap and max term, unless they are guaranteed super-human, play and score every game, and is the second coming of Wayne Gretzky or Bobby Orr...even then, I would expect said player to have more common sense than to hog up all the money while weakening the rest of the team in a salary cap structure as to not be able to win a championship.

 

[seanlinden]

6.0? The athletic went into all analysis and came up with 6.7-7.2
6 million is low-balling him. You can't do that.

The thing about Nylander is he had 2 61 point seasons. All the other young players you would mention like pastynak, Larkin, Draisaitl had 1, even if they exceeded 61.
He is simply not a 6 million player in 2018

Nikolaj Ehlers

 

[Notsince67]

Said Pasternak to Nylander.

Marner is projecting to be a better player based on his trend line. I suspect any gap will be erased in as little as 2 years. No way Marner locks in for 8 years for much less.

 

[81Leafs50]

Dubas blew it. He over paid for Nylander and he is going to have to pay Marner a lot of money after this season. 30 goals 105ptd is going to cost. A career ppg player in 3 years. That is going to cost.

Telling Nylander he will not trade him. What kind of joke do we have as a GM. He needs to keep his mouth shut.

30 goals? Marner is coming off of 19 and 21 goal seasons and a week ago was on pace for 16 goals for this season.

There are comparable playmakers out there that score 20 goals and 60-70 assists. NONE are 9-10 mill players.

 

[seanlinden]

Marner is projecting to be a better player based on his trend line. I suspect any gap will be erased in as little as 2 years. No way Marner locks in for 8 years for much less.

Better than Kucherov?

Not likely in the next couple years. Kucherov is 25 years old, just right now entering his prime. In the last couple years, he's put up about 15% more assists than Marner, AND about 80% more goals.

Realistically, you're looking at the midpoint of the contract where Kucherov may start declining and maybe Marner becomes the better player. Kucherov should be an absolute cieling, and realistically, $9m is probably the right number for Marner on an 8 year deal.

 

[Nineteen67]

Lewis Gross said on Leafs Lunch that he doesn’t use players from other teams as a comparable when determining his client’s value. Sure, it’s a guideline but the team salary structure is more important and he likes to slot his player accordingly.

The benchmark is 11 million per season over 7 years.

 

[wc17]

Lewis Gross said on Leafs Lunch that he doesn’t use players from other teams as a comparable when determining his client’s value. Sure, it’s a guideline but the team salary structure is more important and he likes to slot his player accordingly.

The benchmark is 11 million per season over 7 years.

Im sure the agents will use whatever comparable gets them the most money at the end of the day. If the agent/player wants to hold the Leafs over a barrel and squeeze them for as much money as possible like Nylander did (it is their right...) then Marner (and Matthews) will ask for more than Tavares' $11 mil...if theyre more reasonable theyll use comparables around the league.

Lets see how reasonable these 2 end up being...should be interesting!

 

[Mess]

Lewis Gross said on Leafs Lunch that he doesn’t use players from other teams as a comparable when determining his client’s value. Sure, it’s a guideline but the team salary structure is more important and he likes to slot his player accordingly.

The benchmark is 11 million per season over 7 years.

However that is my belief as well that a Teams salary structure > Other teams comparables.

Why would a NHL GM of his team be held to what other GMs go on other teams good or bad? There was even a Sportsnet segment on HNIC where Brian Burke was raging against the Nylander contract suggesting he was only the 4th best forward and 6th best player and that $7 mil was far too much to pay for that position on the team depth chart.

Marner and Matthews will be slotted into Leafs salary structure where the team sees them going forward.

Leafs internal Salary Cap
1) Matthews
2) Tavares @ $11 mil
3) Marner
4) Nylander @ ~ $7 mil

 

[Nineteen67]

Im sure the agents will use whatever comparable gets them the most money at the end of the day. If the agent/player wants to hold the Leafs over a barrel and squeeze them for as much money as possible like Nylander did (it is their right...) then Marner (and Matthews) will ask for more than Tavares' $11 mil...if theyre more reasonable theyll use comparables around the league.

Lets see how reasonable these 2 end up being...should be interesting!

Reasonable? Based on comments from Dubas the ask is 15.9 per and you don’t budge until July.

 

[Notsince67]

Better than Kucherov?

Not likely in the next couple years. Kucherov is 25 years old, just right now entering his prime. In the last couple years, he's put up about 15% more assists than Marner, AND about 80% more goals.

Realistically, you're looking at the midpoint of the contract where Kucherov may start declining and maybe Marner becomes the better player. Kucherov should be an absolute cieling, and realistically, $9m is probably the right number for Marner on an 8 year deal.

Marner will likely break 100 pts in his 21st year. Kucherov did it on his 24h. Marner plays the PK. All signs point to a much more rapid development of MM. He may even surpass him in points this year. Marner's underlying stats are comparable this year and exceed Kucherov when measured against impact to the team.
News article just put Marners 40 assists in the first 3 seasons in elite company. Nicklas Backstrom, Patrick Kane, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby are the only active players to have done that.
Yeah...Id say he projects higher

 

[Mess]

30 goals? Marner is coming off of 19 and 21 goal seasons and a week ago was on pace for 16 goals for this season.

There are comparable playmakers out there that score 20 goals and 60-70 assists. NONE are 9-10 mill players.

When it comes to getting paid and prioritizing the general rule is ..

Centres >> Wingers
&
Goal Scorers >> Playmakers

So Marner will make less $$ than Matthews and Tavares (both C) and also because they're goal scorers and he is the playmaker, and it doesn't matter if he scores more points than both as he likely will, putting him #3 on Leafs pay scale next year.

Marner's agent I agree will look for playmaking comparables for his client to secure his next contract, but I do believe his agent will push for Mitch to be the highest paid Cap World winger (AAV) in history with potentially double digit figures in the millions.

Dubas will push back that he isn't willing to give him Jack Eichel money at $10 mil AAV (because Jack in a #1C) and Marner is a #1RW.

 

[seanlinden]

Marner will likely break 100 pts in his 21st year. Kucherov did it on his 24h. Marner plays the PK. All signs point to a much more rapid development of MM. He may even surpass him in points this year. Marner's underlying stats are comparable this year and exceed Kucherov when measured against impact to the team.
News article just put Marners 40 assists in the first 3 seasons in elite company. Nicklas Backstrom, Patrick Kane, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby are the only active players to have done that.
Yeah...Id say he projects higher

We're not comparing Marner at 21 versus Kucherov at 21, and who may provide more over the first X years of their career. We're comparing what Marner is likely to do over the 8 years of his deal, and what Kucherov is likely to do over the 8 years of his -- which cover the exact same time period so no need for cap hit percentages to compare different time periods.

Reality is, last year Marner had 69 points in 82 games. Kucherov had 100, with close to double the amount of goals.

This year, Marner is pacing around 110, Kucherov is pacing close to 130, and has 50 percent more goals.

Sure, you can make the case that Marner is closing the gap, but Kucherov should just be entering his prime, so he should still be improving as well. Until Marner figures out how to be a consistent goalscoring threat like Kucherov, he's unlikely to be better than him.


edit: With respect to the comparisons relative to other players that have had 40 assists in each of their first 3 seasons. Take Patrick Kane's 3rd season as an example... 2009-10. The median team was scoring 2.68 goals per game. This year, the median team is scoring 2.97. Scoring is up 10% over that period anyways.

 

[shortfuze]

The Math

Matthews comes in-between McDavid and Eichel.

Connor McDavid -- (comparable) = C.H.% : 16.67 = $12.5 mil AAV
Auston Matthews -- (the average) = C.H.% : 15 X $83 mil cap (new Cap limit) = $12.45 mil AAV (rounded down to $12 mil even for discount)
Jack Eichel --------- (comparable) = C.H.% : 13.33 = $10.0 mil AAV

I'm guessing Matthews Cap hit % of Leafs cap will about 15% and with the salary cap ceiling rises to $83 mil that puts him in the $12.5 AAV range +/- $500k ... So coming in at $12-13 mil.

Tavares C.H.% : 13.84 = $11 mil AAV

Marner will attempt to using the Eichel contract and 12% of $83 mil = $9.96 = approximately $10 mil AAV.

PS. depending on term >= +6 years (as McDavid and Eichel are both 8 years).

What has Auston Matthews done to deserve more money over mcdavid?

 

[Nineteen67]

What has Auston Matthews done to deserve more money over mcdavid?

So you’re ruling out Edmonton and every other team that has an opportunity to sign McDavid...how many teams are left?