Should Marner's next contract be similar to what Nikita Kucherov is getting?

[Mess]

To keep the final contract as low as possible.

I don’t think he’s going to stubbornly stick to that number - but if the Marner side is going to ask on the high side (and all signs seem to point that way), it’ll ideally help the final number be more reasonable.

I suspect the Leafs initial offer to Nylander was on the low end of the spectrum too.

The low ball offending offer didn't seem to work for Dubas in the Nylander negotiations, so hopefully he learned from that and doesn't repeat his mistakes with MM and AM this time around.

I think too many people think that negotiations need to go the way you say above where somehow a low ball offer brings down the other sides ask.. Low ball offers are quick and often dismissed and ignored.. If the Marner side is asking for $10 mil and Dubas thinks suddenly countering with $7 mil after Marner puts up 90 points, will result in Mitch saying okay lets meet in the middle at $8.5 mil..

That is how Hollywood might portray it, but that is not how it works in real life.

I agree with your other assessment however that if that happened as above that Marner's side would respond with a much shorter deal taking them either up to UFA status or just give away a year if that is the range of money Leafs are offering.

I think lowball 8 year term offers by Dubas will result in Marner side saying 5-6 years. .So a 8 year X $7.5 mil offer will return a 5 year $40 mil ($8 mil AAV) taking the sides right up to UFA status at the end. Bottom line being the Leafs end up not buying any/many UFA years in the process. Which is exactly what happen with Nylander and Dubas the first time round.

 

[Notsince67]

The tax situation is way overblown. Yzerman is just a very good negotiator and Tampa is a fantastic market to play in - great weather, low media pressure and an owner whose still willing to spend to win. A very envious situation to be in.

Marner’s agent will ask for a Eichel, Dubas will counter with a comparison in the 7.5 mil range and they’ll compromise around 8.5-9 mil

Now as to how long that takes, will come down to how stubborn Marner’s dad and agent are

Eichel is 80MM over 8 years.
Willy is 45MM over 6 years .
You are saying that the beginning offer is Willy's average salary of 7.5MM x 8 years or x 6 years? 6 years is a slap in the face and keep Marner from the ice and 8 years would merit a request for a trade followed by Dubas' firing.
You should probably re-think this.
If I were Marner, under the pain of death, I would prefer Willy's contract to Drai's contract of 8.5 x 8. It is pretty easy to project that 6 years after signing, Marner could get better than the 11.5 x 2 years in FA that would balance out the payment to Drai, without even getting better than he is.
So Marner should get better than Drai's deal because Willy's contract looks better. Marner will have outproduced Willy by around 40% for comparable years and plays the PK. On the same 6 year term, you would be underpaying Marner relative to Willy at any number bellow 10MM. If Marner takes Eichel's deal (2 extra UFA years bought), people should be thankful that Marner is giving the team a break.
I am not saying that I like this. This is the Dubas/Nylander contract reality

 

[Menzinger]

Eichel is 80MM over 8 years.
Willy is 45MM over 6 years .
You are saying that the beginning offer is Willy's average salary of 7.5MM x 8 years or x 6 years? 6 years is a slap in the face and keep Marner from the ice and 8 years would merit a request for a trade followed by Dubas' firing.
You should probably re-think this.
If I were Marner, under the pain of death, I would prefer Willy's contract to Drai's contract of 8.5 x 8. It is pretty easy to project that 6 years after signing, Marner could get better than the 11.5 x 2 years in FA that would balance out the payment to Drai, without even getting better than he is.
So Marner should get better than Drai's deal because Willy's contract looks better. Marner will have outproduced Willy by around 40% for comparable years and plays the PK. On the same 6 year term, you would be underpaying Marner relative to Willy at any number bellow 10MM. If Marner takes Eichel's deal (2 extra UFA years bought), people should be thankful that Marner is giving the team a break.
I am not saying that I like this. This is the Dubas/Nylander contract reality

There is likely next to zero chance the Leafs make Marner the 2nd highest paid winger in the league immediately post ELC (which he would be with Eichels contract).

 

[as Pure as Evil]

if your looking at a contract based on stats wheeler should be his comparable . a assist machine tho he signed his extention in to his 30's his number 8.25 seems like a generous amount for someone still a rfa

 

[JT AM da real deal]

There is likely next to zero chance the Leafs make Marner the 2nd highest paid winger in the league immediately post ELC (which he would be with Eichels contract).

I think you are right about this. But that doesn't mean we have Marner. It just means we have an impasse. Dubas may look at a bigger trade at TDL where we get an improved defense. I would hate to lose Marner but somebody has got to go and it ain't gonna be Matty or JT. Maybe the contract impasse makes him the guy to be moved.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Parayko, Schwartz and fabri for Marner and a 2nd. I think it could work. We don't really lose anything but gain a better defense.

 

[Mess]

There is likely next to zero chance the Leafs make Marner the 2nd highest paid winger in the league immediately post ELC (which he would be with Eichels contract).

That will be avoided by a 5-6 year deal and not 8 year term.

 

[Notsince67]

There is likely next to zero chance the Leafs make Marner the 2nd highest paid winger in the league immediately post ELC (which he would be with Eichels contract).

Everything has a solution. you don't like the optics, bring the deal down to 5 years. Base it on a Patrick Kane's ELC comparable and using an estimated 83MM cap. He signed a deal at 10.6% of the cap right out of his ELC. That would mean around 8.8MM on a five year deal. Add a touch of RFA inflation and we are at low 9's over 5 years. Personally I would prefer a 10MM x 8 deal if I were the leafs but I'm not writing the check

 

[Notsince67]

That will be avoided by a 5-6 year deal and not 8 year term.

That is exactly it. The problem is that the 10MM x 8 deal looks far better than alternatives given the fact that the precedent for no team discounts have been set. Kane's performance in his ELC is probably the closest fair comparable. Marginally better for the leafs short term but really bad long term when they want to re-sign. Still in the 9ish numbers on a 5 year

 

[LeafFever]

if your looking at a contract based on stats wheeler should be his comparable . a assist machine tho he signed his extention in to his 30's his number 8.25 seems like a generous amount for someone still a rfa

As much as I think he's been underrated and like him, there is big risk given his age.

 

[LeafFever]

Parayko, Schwartz and fabri for Marner and a 2nd. I think it could work. We don't really lose anything but gain a better defense.

Paryko is so damn overrated.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

As much as I think he's been underrated and like him, there is big risk given his age.

true enough I was just using him as a example of a pass first star that has gotten a large payday recently.

 

[Mess]

That is exactly it. The problem is that the 10MM x 8 deal looks far better than alternatives given the fact that the precedent for no team discounts have been set. Kane's performance in his ELC is probably the closest fair comparable. Marginally better for the leafs short term but really bad long term when they want to re-sign. Still in the 9ish numbers on a 5 year

Yup if Dubas is tossing out #'s like $7.5 mil AAV (which is actually Nylander's #'s [6 years @$45 mil] minus games lost) then Marner's agent Darren Ferris will respond like the soup Nazi on Seinfeld with NO Soup UFA years for you, and only 5 year term giving up only the RFA years.

 

[GoonieFace]

Its amazing how many people know exactly what was offered to what player and when it was offered. They also know the response of the players agents to the (imaginary) demands. Why do we even need Dubas, when we have HF Boards.

 

[LeafFever]

Its amazing how many people know exactly what was offered to what player and when it was offered. They also know the response of the players agents to the (imaginary) demands. Why do we even need Dubas, when we have HF Boards.

It's ridiculous.

 

[ACC1224]

Its amazing how many people know exactly what was offered to what player and when it was offered. They also know the response of the players agents to the (imaginary) demands. Why do we even need Dubas, when we have HF Boards.

I don't expect that an individual would know everything that happens but it's certainly possible to know what's gone on in some individual instances.
Before becoming Leafs some were just local minor hockey players and believe it or not, interacted with their not as skilled teammates and their families.

 

[Mess]

Its amazing how many people know exactly what was offered to what player and when it was offered. They also know the response of the players agents to the (imaginary) demands. Why do we even need Dubas, when we have HF Boards.

Because a message board doesn't impact real life events, and posters on a message board don't influence actual contract discussions. This is all pure speculation and hypothetical chatter..

However this is Dubas just recently;

Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas confident team will sign Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews to new long-term contracts

Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas remains steadfast he can sign star forwards Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews to new long-term contracts before free-agent season next summer and develop the current roster into a championship team. Dubas, in a wide-ranging scrum with media after practice Monday, was most pointed when discussing contracts for his two young superstars. The subject of offer sheets for Matthews and Marner didn’t cause him a moment’s hesitation.

“If a team wants to go down that path with us, that’s the way it goes,” Dubas said of the potential offer sheets for Matthews and Marner. “But our focus will be to continue to work with these players (on new deals). The players have both stated they want to be here and it’s our goal to continue to work with them and their agents towards an agreement.”

Depending on who you talk to, Marner’s projected salary demands could come in at a low of $8 million to a high of $10 million. Nothing official, though, from Marner’s camp.

“It’ll be our intention to try to get those (done) as soon as possible,” said Dubas, who says he wants to avoid the impasse that arose with William Nylander, one that cause the younger winger to miss the club’s first 27 games this season while negotiating a six-year, $45 million deal. “We want to avoid the situation we were just in (with Nylander) … we’re completely in control of that this time in that there’s no excuse that I can’t say, ‘Well I wasn’t doing this job a year ago.’ We have to continue to work away with them. It (will) be our intention well before July 1 that we have an agreement and both players are here long-term. One way or another we’ll get to that point.”

Dubas’ biggest challenge, though, will be the changing landscape around his two young guns.

Marner has exploded over the past 18 months into one of the finest playmakers in the NHL and has become, arguably, the Leafs’ best player, day-in and day-out. He’s routinely regarded as the player who “drives” the team, all of which has elevated his value from last June when reports suggested “was the time” for the Leafs to lock Marner up. Marner is now on a 95-point-plus pace this season but would rather deal with contract talks after the season. Matthews, apparently, remains fluid in terms of the timing of a new deal, but his status as one of the game’s elite goal-scorers could translate into one of the game’s most expensive contracts, if not the most expensive.

Full Story: Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas confident team will sign Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews to new long-term contracts | The Star

 

[LeafFever]

Why do people assume Dubas did not try and Marner would have signed?

 

[Notsince67]

Why do people assume Dubas did not try and Marner would have signed?

Logic. Marner would have taken 8.5MM all day long. It was the safe bet

 

[LeafFever]

Logic. Marner would have taken 8.5MM all day long. It was the safe bet

Logic: Marner had 61 and 69 point seasons without a full year as a top 6 forward and knew Tavares would be playing with him.
He got 69 points with 16:28. He is the one young player who would have bet on himself.
Willy wanted 8.5 million with worse stats.

 

[lovemyleafs]

If we get Marner for under 10mil per. That's the steal of the century.

 

[Notsince67]

Logic: Marner had 61 and 69 point seasons without a full year as a top 6 forward and knew Tavares would be playing with him.
He got 69 points with 16:28. He is the one young player who would have bet on himself.
Willy wanted 8.5 million with worse stats.

He was on pace for a good year but an injury could cut him short and as impressive as a 1.13 p/game was after January, few people would have agreed that he had demonstrated enough to even get 8.5MM without showing he was a PPG player this year. Even if he remained healthy, it is difficult for anyone to imagine he would be killing it like he is in the NHL.
He had risk and the leafs had risk in him doing what he is doing now.
Many fans on this board thought I was crazy to suggest it in August.

 

[LeafFever]

He was on pace for a good year but an injury could cut him short and as impressive as a 1.13 p/game was after January, few people would have agreed that he had demonstrated enough to even get 8.5MM without showing he was a PPG player this year. Even if he remained healthy, it is difficult for anyone to imagine he would be killing it like he is in the NHL.
He had risk and the leafs had risk in him doing what he is doing now.
Many fans on this board thought I was crazy to suggest it in August.

Nylander's agent wanted that contract so he would not have thought it was crazy.

 

[Consultant]

Face it, if they keep it up and I don't see why they won't, then the numbers could very well end up being 11 per year for Mitch and 12.5 for Matthews. Those numbers leave little room for a quality Gardiner replacement.
Dubas is too much of a fan for subjective analysis, he should have traded Nylander for a cost controlled d-man (just my opinion).
But hey its better than not having good players to pay!

 

[Liminality]

Face it, if they keep it up and I don't see why they won't, then the numbers could very well end up being 11 per year for Mitch and 12.5 for Matthews. Those numbers leave little room for a quality Gardiner replacement.
Dubas is too much of a fan for subjective analysis, he should have traded Nylander for a cost controlled d-man (just my opinion).
But hey its better than not having good players to pay!

If Marner is asking for that much out of his ELC, they'll just bridge him.