Should have let Nylander sit or traded him for defense.

[Menzinger]

If Kapanen, AJ, Marner want a similarly structured contract as Nylander’s, management can calmly explain that doing so would require them to sit out until December, which they are free to do, but would guarantee they’ll be traded before then.

The Nylander contract emerged from such a unique situation, the notion that it’s resetting the market (even though it’s still within the range of comparables in terms of aav and total money) doesn’t really hold up to the tiniest bit of scrutiny

 

[Placid Perspicuity]

I guess I could have worded that better.

I was suggesting the first part of the season prior to iniury Matthews was playing he best hockey of his career. He did this without Nylander. This is hardly even debatable.

I don't agree that Nylander makes Matthews better... But he MIGHT help him produce a little more... But he doesn't increase the quality of player Matthews is.

Conversely, I think Matthews makes Nylander play better. Nylander needs Matthews to produce at a near 7 mil level. He has show he can't when away from him.

Fair enough. It's a subjective view. It's hard for me to say definitively that Nylander needs Matthews, because we've seen them mostly together. The times he was split from Matthews was (a) after the contract issues this season (b) when Babcock wanted to send him a message that his effort level/defensive awareness was lacking. Neither of those situations were Nylander at his best, so I can understand why it wouldn't fill you with confidence that he can do it without Matthews.

I look at Nylander's other opportunities playing without Matthews as an indication of what he might bring. The 2017 World Championships, his work in Sweden, his short stint with the Leafs in 2015-2016 all indicate a young player with higher ability than anyone else Matthews has played with. When the opposition tries to take away Matthews' space, I see Nylander take over the puck carrying duties. I see Nylander making passes that nobody else on the team can make. I see him creating chances for his linemates on a regular basis. Statistically, there's no doubt that he would benefit from Matthews finishing these plays that maybe Kadri can't. I guess the sticking point might be the $7M price tag and whether he's worth it or not. For me, there is very little doubt that he already deserves it, and it will only look better as the years go by.

 

[ToneDog]

Stop the talk of Nylander being traded or not worth his contract. The Matthews-Nylander combo has been more threatening then Tavares-Marner the past week. Those 2 combos will be Leafs for a very long time. Problem is Babcock not seeing that it was the best way to go since Nylander came back.

If Dubas can move free Marleau's cap space, we may not have to sacrifice a forward. We could also potentially use some of the cap savings to sign a cheaper UFA LWer.

 

[Menzinger]

You mentioned that Matthews does better without Nylander, citing his improved statistics this season. I think that a more likely explanation would be things like growth from Matthews or increased PP opportunities at the beginning of the year. However, if you're citing the lack of Nylander on his line as "proof" that Matthews doesn't benefit from him, then it's a logical conclusion to draw from your statement that Nylander drags down Matthews.

I'm not trying to get into an argument here. Like I said in my previous post, we both want the Leafs to win. We just have different views about some of the players.

Spot on. Matthews strong start to the season is also likely the main result of his natural development as a player rather than being away from Nylander - we tend to see reasonably continuous growth from many players in that 18-22ish age range

At this point we’ve got 2+ seasons of data (stats and imo eyetest) that show they not only improve one another’s game, there one of the top forward tandems in the NHL

 

[IPS]

I still don't ever see other fanbases talk like this.
I still see it. Johnsson's and Kapanen's stats are prorated to if they had more ice time and PP time. And that's apparently how Dubas has to pay them.
Other fanbases just don't seem to do this.

It's a slippery slope. Do we have to prorate every nhl players stats to if they had 20 minutes of ice time a game, and 4.5 pp minutes per game? Or just leaf players?
Why do we prorate Matthews stats to if he had 20 minute per game and 4.5 pp minutes... but not say, Ennis?
Ennis in on pace for 20-ish goals/82 with 10 minutes toi per game and amost no PP time. If we double his toi and give him 4 minutes of PP time a game, is it outrageous to say he'd at least double his goal totals? So do we have to pay him as a 40 goal player now?

It's not as slippery as a slope as you make it out to be when you take previous body of work into consideration.

On a per-minute basis, Nylander was a top-5 PP producer in his rookie year, was 11th in PP points overall. You can easily make the link between increased ice-time and increased production.

In his 2nd year, he was one of the best ES producers on a per-minute basis and was tied for 38th in ES production (tied with guys like Blake Wheeler and Mikko Rantanen). Again, you can make a pretty solid link between increased ice-time and increased production. He's matching other big names there.

The problem with Kappy and Johnsson is that there's no previous body of work to take into consideration. Now you're 100% correct in pointing out the hypocrisy in regards to contract negotiations (and I've yet to see anyone refute you) but your assessments on the player's ability on ice has a few errors.

From the data I see, increasing player's ice-time when they're already playing above 20 minutes will have very little addition to their actual production. But players who are around the 15-16 minute range see a sizeable increase in production when they get bumped to the 18 minute range. This is very much up for debate however as it's very hard to differentiate the usage as a whole from favorable offensive minutes like PP time/OZ starts etc..

 

[MyBudJT]

Fair enough. It's a subjective view. It's hard for me to say definitively that Nylander needs Matthews, because we've seen them mostly together. The times he was split from Matthews was (a) after the contract issues this season (b) when Babcock wanted to send him a message that his effort level/defensive awareness was lacking. Neither of those situations were Nylander at his best, so I can understand why it wouldn't fill you with confidence that he can do it without Matthews.

I look at Nylander's other opportunities playing without Matthews as an indication of what he might bring. The 2017 World Championships, his work in Sweden, his short stint with the Leafs in 2015-2016 all indicate a young player with higher ability than anyone else Matthews has played with. When the opposition tries to take away Matthews' space, I see Nylander take over the puck carrying duties. I see Nylander making passes that nobody else on the team can make. I see him creating chances for his linemates on a regular basis. Statistically, there's no doubt that he would benefit from Matthews finishing these plays that maybe Kadri can't. I guess the sticking point might be the $7M price tag and whether he's worth it or not. For me, there is very little doubt that he already deserves it, and it will only look better as the years go by.

Fair enough,

I encourage you to look into the ~50-60 game sample with the Leafs where he was up to speed and away from Matthews (approx 40 games before this season, and 15-20 games this season).

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If Kapanen, AJ, Marner want a similarly structured contract as Nylander’s, management can calmly explain that doing so would require them to sit out until December, which they are free to do, but would guarantee they’ll be traded before then.

The Nylander contract emerged from such a unique situation, the notion that it’s resetting the market (even though it’s still within the range of comparables in terms of aav and total money) doesn’t really hold up to the tiniest bit of scrutiny

No. A player using it as a comparable will just cite the officially listed 45/6. They won't care that Nylander lost some of that money for sitting out 2 months. That's how it is OFFICIALLY listed. It's an immense amount of spin to try and suggest anything different.[/I]

 

[Menzinger]

It's not as slippery as a slope as you make it out to be when you take previous body of work into consideration.

On a per-minute basis, Nylander was a top-5 PP producer in his rookie year, was 11th in PP points overall. You can easily make the link between increased ice-time and increased production.

In his 2nd year, he was one of the best ES producers on a per-minute basis and was tied for 38th in ES production (tied with guys like Blake Wheeler and Mikko Rantanen). Again, you can make a pretty solid link between increased ice-time and increased production. He's matching other big names there.

The problem with Kappy and Johnsson is that there's no previous body of work to take into consideration. Now you're 100% correct in pointing out the hypocrisy in regards to contract negotiations (and I've yet to see anyone refute you) but your assessments on the player's ability on ice has a few errors.

From the data I see, increasing player's ice-time when they're already playing above 20 minutes will have very little addition to their actual production. But players who are around the 15-16 minute range see a sizeable increase in production when they get bumped to the 18 minute range. This is very much up for debate however as it's very hard to differentiate the usage as a whole from favorable offensive minutes like PP time/OZ starts etc..

What’s crazy is that any of Nylander’s other comparables would have been on their first teams PP unit their entire NHL career to date.

Because of the Leas forward depth (and some wonky coaching decisions) he’s been playing second fiddle in this regard

 

[Mess]

Well, for one it’s not an either or situation.

There are plenty of assets that can also be moved

True

But that will not change the fact that 4 X forwards = almost 1/2 the teams full salary Cap.

Name another NHL team that has that much invested AAV in so few players and all at one position?

 

[Menzinger]

True

But that will not change the fact that 4 X forwards = almost 1/2 the teams full salary Cap.

Name another NHL team that has that much invested AAV in so few players and all at one position?

I think the way teams across the league are structuring their salaries are changing fairly quickly: with every passing seasons other teams will become more and more top heavy

 

[IPS]

What’s crazy is that any of Nylander’s other comparables would have been on their first teams PP unit their entire NHL career to date.

Because of the Leas forward depth (and some wonky coaching decisions) he’s been playing second fiddle in this regard

Exactly. Throw Nylander on some scrub team where he's getting fed 20+ minutes a night and 3+ minutes on the PP and all of a sudden you probably won't hear much about how he's not worth $7M because he'll have the production to back it up.

Usage matters, a lot.

 

[Menzinger]

Exactly. Throw Nylander on some scrub team where he's getting fed 20+ minutes a night and 3+ minutes on the PP and all of a sudden you probably won't hear much about how he's not worth $7M because he'll have the production to back it up.

Usage matters, a lot.

Yep.

Some folks love to bring up production stats, but the second one tries to go into a deeper analysis of how those numbers happened all of a sudden they aren’t interesting in discussing stats anymore , it’s curious...

 

[Throw More Waffles]

What’s crazy is that any of Nylander’s other comparables would have been on their first teams PP unit their entire NHL career to date.

Because of the Leas forward depth (and some wonky coaching decisions) he’s been playing second fiddle in this regard

So how much of a raise should Ennis get this season? He's on pace for 20 goals/82 playing 10 minutes a game with almost no PP time.
Give him 4 pp minute per game, and 18 minutes per night, it's reasonable to suggest he'd double those goals. So do we now have to pay Ennis like a late blooming 40 goal scorer? Or do we only get to play the "projected stats" game with our golden boys?
There is NO consistency.

 

[Menzinger]

So how much of a raise should Ennis get this season? He's on pace for 20 goals/82 playing 10 minutes a game with almost no PP time.
Give him 4 pp minute per game, and 18 minutes per night, it's reasonable to suggest he'd double those goals. So do we now have to pay Ennis like a late blooming 40 goal scorer? Or do we only get to play the "projected stats" game with our golden boys?
There is NO consistency.

Ennis is definitely due for a fair raise this season - which another team will no doubt pay.

I don’t understand your objection here

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Exactly. Throw Nylander on some scrub team where he's getting fed 20+ minutes a night and 3+ minutes on the PP and all of a sudden you probably won't hear much about how he's not worth $7M because he'll have the production to back it up.

Usage matters, a lot.

Doesn't literally every team have 3rd liners that would get more points if they got moved to the first line because their team had less depth? Do all of these players now have to be paid using prorated stats based on 18 minutes/4 pp minutes per game?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Ennis is definitely due for a fair raise this season - which another team will no doubt pay.

I don’t understand your objection here

Is Ennis going to be paid like a 20 goal scorer, or a 40 goal scorer?

 

[ToneDog]

What’s crazy is that any of Nylander’s other comparables would have been on their first teams PP unit their entire NHL career to date.

Because of the Leas forward depth (and some wonky coaching decisions) he’s been playing second fiddle in this regard

Our #1 PP unit has been terrible since December. It might be time to change it up and throw the Bruins a curve by putting Nylander in for Marner. AJ replaced Kadri last game so we could have 2 more balanced units.

#34 #18 #91 #29 #44
#63/24 #43 #12 #16 #8

It might also make more sense to move JT to the second unit. He is not being exploited on the #1 PP unit as much as I would like to see.

 

[IPS]

So how much of a raise should Ennis get this season? He's on pace for 20 goals/82 playing 10 minutes a game with almost no PP time.
Give him 4 pp minute per game, and 18 minutes per night, it's reasonable to suggest he'd double those goals. So do we now have to pay Ennis like a late blooming 40 goal scorer? Or do we only get to play the "projected stats" game with our golden boys?
There is NO consistency.

Ennis' SH% is unsustainable man, he's shooting well over double the % he did last year and this is his best SH% since 2012. He's getting lucky. He also gets 1:40 of PP time, I wouldn't call that "almost none". He does have a previous body of work but it's not comparable to Nylander's, even with him being much younger.

Doesn't literally every team have 3rd liners that would get more points if they got moved to the first line because their team had less depth? Do all of these players now have to be paid using prorated stats based on 18 minutes/4 pp minutes per game?

Absolutely. And they get paid relative to their ability. Hence why Hyman only gets paid $2..5M despite his production saying he should be paid much more.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Ennis' SH% is unsustainable man, he's shooting well over double the % he did last year and this is his best SH% since 2012. He's getting lucky. He also gets 1:40 of PP time, I wouldn't call that "almost none". He does have a previous body of work but it's not comparable to Nylander's, even with him being much younger.

I'm not saying he should get Nylander money.
But will he get a raise based on his REAL numbers, or projected stats based on 18 minutes of ice time and 4 pp minutes per game?

How does all of this affect Kapanen's negotiation? He has like 40 minutes of PP time all season.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Absolutely. And they get paid relative to their ability. Hence why Hyman only gets paid $2..5M despite his production saying he should be paid much more.

So this happens on every team. Got it. So why did you make the argument that Nylander's cap hit would seem better if he got elite toi/pp time? Doesn't that apply to quite literally every 3rd liner? Why is this unique to Nylander?

 

[IPS]

I'm not saying he should get Nylander money.
But will he get a raise based on his REAL numbers, or projected stats based on 18 minutes of ice time and 4 pp minutes per game?

How does all of this affect Kapanen's negotiation? He has like 40 minutes of PP time all season.

Kapanen's 82nd in ES production in the league, he ain't matching Nylander's ES production from last year. Scoring is wayyyy up this year.

So this happens on every team. Got it. So why did you make the argument that Nylander's cap hit would seem better if he got elite toi/pp time? Doesn't that apply to quite literally every 3rd liner? Why is this unique to Nylander?

To a degree it absolutely does.

But if you make Hyman play 20+ minutes and 3+ PP minutes, he's not gonna come anywhere remotely close to Nylander because he doesn't have his offensive ability. This gets factored in with negotiations.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Kapanen's 82nd in ES production in the league, he ain't matching Nylander's ES production from last year. Scoring is wayyyy up this year.


To a degree it absolutely does.

But if you make Hyman play 20+ minutes and 3+ PP minutes, he's not gonna come anywhere remotely close to Nylander because he doesn't have his offensive ability. This gets factored in with negotiations.

So scoring being way up this year should affect Marner's negotiations as well, right?

Hyman is on like a 23 goal pace with almost zero PP time all season. I don't think it's outlandish to say he'd get 5-10 more goals if he had 4 minutes of PP time each game. So do we now have to pay him like a 30-35 goal scorer? Because these are the arguments people apply to Nylander and Matthews.
Just trying to figure this all out for consistencies sake.

 

[IPS]

So scoring being way up this year should affect Marner's negotiations as well, right?

Probably not cause our GM is utterly horrible at negotiating. If he knew how to negotiate we should have got Nylander at around $6.4M - $6.5M.

 

[Mess]

I think the way teams across the league are structuring their salaries are changing fairly quickly: with every passing seasons other teams will become more and more top heavy

By top heavy do you mean investing in forwards at the expense of defense and goaltending?

No question teams will have expensive high-end talent and then need cheaper options for cap reasons, that part is inevitable but Leafs plan on investing an unequal portion % on just expensive forwards, when Leafs Dcore is already and issue now and made even worse when Gardiner walks as UFA for cap reasons.

 

[Menzinger]

Our #1 PP unit has been terrible since December. It might be time to change it up and throw the Bruins a curve by putting Nylander in for Marner. AJ replaced Kadri last game so we could have 2 more balanced units.

#34 #18 #91 #29 #44
#63/24 #43 #12 #16 #8

It might also make more sense to move JT to the second unit. He is not being exploited on the #1 PP unit as much as I would like to see.

I’d love to see some fairly drastic changes to the Leafs PP right now - regardless of if they even involved Nylander too.