Rumor: Sheltered ice time myth

[Mathletic]

Thanks a million

No problem. The thread could be refreshed though. There's some good sites that aren't there like:

Dobber's site with line combinations

http://hockey.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_last3gamelines.php

Brian McDonald's Greater than Plus Minus

http://www.greaterthanplusminus.com/

... best hire among analysts IMO this summer.

http://www.litterboxcats.com/2014/8...hire-brian-macdonald-advanced-stats-analytics

The guy holds a PHD in mathematics and comes off to me as someone who understands both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the game. Some papers published in the scientific community are kind of iffy on the qualitative part as far as I'm concerned and needs some more work in order to be used in the real world. But it's really not the case with McDonald. Should be a great addition to the Panthers. I don't know for how long his blog will be on however.

Nothing against Dubas but he's not really someone who will make great research by himself. What he'll do however is be open to these ideas and be able to make sense of them and instill those ideas in the organization. McDonald on the other hand is one who can clearly provide the Panthers a competitive edge with his research.

 

[Haburger]

The 'sheltering' logic is often exaggerated. There's no doubt in my mind DD and Max are 'sheltered'. Why would you put offensive players in a defensive situation? Max's goal totals speak to that. The exaggerated part is assuming all they have is sheltered minutes. 'Favourable minutes' would be a better term. Teams want to go check them, you can't avoid it, you can only reduce the impact. Of course, generally speaking not all players play the same vs every team. Some players do well vs physical teams, some do well vs speed teams. Using an overall assessment could be fair, but it may always be off. Some of the most talented players in the world have their Achilles heel! So even quality of competition, even when sometimes referring to a known star talent, can be flawed under certain circumstances. Just my 2 cents.

Exaggerated? It doesnt exist in dd's case.top line players dont get sheltered.jus more proof that most on here have absolutely no clue about the game or how its played.

 

[MathMan]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but 2012-2013 saw a more balances approach with regards to offensive distribution and the team was firing on all cylinders for a good part of the shorten season. Every line was producing. Last year saw a preponderance of those opportunities go to one trio and everyone regressed except patches and DD.

If anything, last year was less balanced overall in terms of deployment, but two factors made a huge difference:

1- the Habs didn't get stuck in their own zone nearly as much (they had a much better transition game) so they had more offensive zone faceoffs than defensive ones, unlike this year where they were among the worst in the league for O-zone to D-zone faceoff ratio.

2- when there were defensive zone starts, they often went to the likes of Jeff Halpern and Colby Armstrong. The reliable, defensive fourth line was buried in the defensive zone, with Halpern getting a 27.4% non-neutral O-zone faceoff ratio. Yeah, the fourth line looked awful, and that was entirely by design.

The net result was that Plekanec was at 47.6% with this metric, Eller at 48.7%... and Desharnais at 61.1%. Everybody was pushed more towards the O-zone by factors 1 and 2 above, so of course they did better offensively. The rookie Gallys were also huge beneficiaries.

The offseason suggests that the org is hoping to recreate factor 2 with Malhotra taking the Halpern role. It was a hole that wasn't really filled last season, and the addition of Parros didn't help because he could not be relied on for defensive minutes when he was dressed.

Factor 1 will hopefully be recreated by a better, more skilled blueline with Gilbert on it and no Gorges and, especially, Murray. There's some question whether the chip-the-puck-away approach to transition was due to a conscious choice or simply because the D-men they dressed simply couldn't typically do better.

 

[Price is Wright]

You see, DD is small in the shadow of Pacioretty. Pacioretty is his shelter.

 

[Andy]

If anything, last year was less balanced overall in terms of deployment, but two factors made a huge difference:

1- the Habs didn't get stuck in their own zone nearly as much (they had a much better transition game) so they had more offensive zone faceoffs than defensive ones, unlike this year where they were among the worst in the league for O-zone to D-zone faceoff ratio.

2- when there were defensive zone starts, they often went to the likes of Jeff Halpern and Colby Armstrong. The reliable, defensive fourth line was buried in the defensive zone, with Halpern getting a 27.4% non-neutral O-zone faceoff ratio. Yeah, the fourth line looked awful, and that was entirely by design.

The net result was that Plekanec was at 47.6% with this metric, Eller at 48.7%... and Desharnais at 61.1%. Everybody was pushed more towards the O-zone by factors 1 and 2 above, so of course they did better offensively. The rookie Gallys were also huge beneficiaries.

The offseason suggests that the org is hoping to recreate factor 2 with Malhotra taking the Halpern role. It was a hole that wasn't really filled last season, and the addition of Parros didn't help because he could not be relied on for defensive minutes when he was dressed.

Factor 1 will hopefully be recreated by a better, more skilled blueline with Gilbert on it and no Gorges and, especially, Murray. There's some question whether the chip-the-puck-away approach to transition was due to a conscious choice or simply because the D-men they dressed simply couldn't typically do better.

Thanks MM.

 

[hototogisu]

The offseason suggests that the org is hoping to recreate factor 2 with Malhotra taking the Halpern role. It was a hole that wasn't really filled last season, and the addition of Parros didn't help because he could not be relied on for defensive minutes when he was dressed.

What do you think the Habs were hoping for by not addressing this last year? Did they expect White/Dumont/Leblanc/Bournival to fill the role?

 

[Milhouse40]

Every teams got sheltered players and often, some are considered top player in the league. The term exist because this type of ice-time exist.

Some player needs to be sheltered and not necessarily in the same way. There are many way of sheltering a player and it's not always an offensive thing.

- Offensive game situation: That's not sheltering a player. As some says, it's not totally insane to use DD-Pac in offensive game situation. The fact that they get most of these offensive game situations make it easier for them to produce offensively and these players need to deliver.

- Sheltered minutes: That's making a player look good by not putting him in situation he can't handle. Best exemple is Plekanec.....we don't care who the opposing line is, he'll do the job. Eller was used in the same way in the PO, that's why Therrien started with this line most of the time on the road. D-zone, O-zone, N-zone it didn't matter really.

That's the main thing with DD, his lines is sheltered by not being put in situations they can't handle like D-zone starts, shutdown role and PK. That means if you wanna play the guy, there's only one thing to give him: Offensive game situations. DD will face top opposition like Chara and Bergeron some games, but he'll take them in an offensive game situation.

This is what i hate: offensive games situation are very precious and shouldn't always go to the same players every single night, but in this case.....either we gave them all the offensive game situation (even when they're cold and others are hot) or they get to play 10-12 minutes a night cause they can't really take any other role and minutes or they will look bad.

 

[Hope Of Glory]

Exaggerated? It doesnt exist in dd's case.top line players dont get sheltered.jus more proof that most on here have absolutely no clue about the game or how its played.

So, you really think that all lines start as much in the offensive zone? Or that starting in the defensive or offensive doesn't have an impact on the production of the players? That's sheltering. Saying it doesn't exist for DD is quite clueless.

As for opposition, another part of sheltering, I guess Desharnais isn't that much sheltered. Teams will always try to put their best lines to counter Pacioretty (so DD too). Good coaches will find a way most of the time to do it even if they don't have the last change. Let a better (more complete) center (Galchenyuk at some point I hope) get those offensive start to produce more and if you keep Desharnais, make him face 2nd/3rd line competition if you can. With capable offensive wingers (Bourque, Sekac/Ghetto, etc), he'll have no problem creating offensive chances without the help of Max. That's probably the best solution long term if we don't trade him.

 

[Teufelsdreck]

As I recall, Julien tried to put Chara on whenever Pacioretty was on, so DD had to see a lot of him.

 

[MathMan]

What do you think the Habs were hoping for by not addressing this last year? Did they expect White/Dumont/Leblanc/Bournival to fill the role?

To some extent, but I think they also thought they could give more responsibility to Plekanec and Eller (say give Eller's line the extra minutes taken off the fourth line by Parros's presence) and not suffer too much for it. Unfortunately, that turned out to be more of a defensive load than they expected because the dysfunctional defense forced more defensive zone faceoffs. Everyone ended up being pulled towards the defensive zone as a result, the offense suffered, and if Price hadn't stood on his head the goals against would've been worse, too.

Frankly, in general I look a that off-season as them chasing size and toughness at the expense of good sense. Much of Bergevin's deadline work involved getting players to correct his (foreseeable) mistakes from the off-season. This summer's moves suggest much has been learned from those mistakes.

 

[waffledave]

I really don't get what the big deal is with Desharnais, one way or the other.

He is what he is.

It doesn't matter, anyways. None of the centres are good enough on the team right now to be real 1st liners on a contender.

All this over-analysis by his defenders and detractors is useless. At the end of the day the team needs a better 1st C. Period. No amount of number crunching will change that.

 

[Rapala]

I never bought into the sheltering argument.
When i put out my number one line i could care less about who they throw out there.
I expect my guys to win that battle. The very good teams have this ability using two lines.
If the first line gets tied up the second line takes up the slack.
Unfortunately we don't have a bonafide number 1 and are confused as to who exactly is number 2.
Based on the most recent playoffs a case can be made for Plecks as number one and Eller as number 2.
These seemed to be the go to lines over all. A side note being DD got most of the PP.

For me this whole argument is based on and stems from this lack of identification.
If we landed a RyJo via trade for example everything would change for the better.
Having a reliable go to every second or third shift would be paramount.
Essentially telling the opposition that this is what they've got to deal with and even if they succeed our number 2 and 3 have our backs. None of our "c's" have that quality yet...
So we end up arguing about a sheltered number one and an elevated number three etc...

Please MB get me a RyJo asap so we can identify a true number one and avoid this madness.

 

[Natey]

Opposition isn't the only thing that affects "sheltering".

Zone starts is also a large factor, quite possibly a larger one. David Desharnais took 52.9% of his non-neutral zone faceoffs in the offensive zone, which may not seem like much but is the highest number on the Habs. Compare to Eller (43.7%) or even Plekanec (38.0%) and it becomes clear the other centers were placed in defensive situations more often to free up offensive starts for Desharnais.

That's not bad strategizing, as the centers certainly have different strengths, but it has to be considered when evaluating the relative performances of the Habs' centers. It's likely Malhotra will take a lot of those defensive faceoffs and Plekanec will likely be the biggest beneficiary.

Also when considering overall scoring numbers, don't forget to separate out special teams scoring. DD getting first-unit PP minutes and 50 seconds more than, say, Plekanec, helps, whereas Plekanec's PK minutes are hardly prime offensive opportunities.

Didn't we figure out before that he took like 1 extra faceoff per game, at ES, in the offensive zone? Not as big of deal as its made out to be.

Every teams got sheltered players and often, some are considered top player in the league. The term exist because this type of ice-time exist.

Some player needs to be sheltered and not necessarily in the same way. There are many way of sheltering a player and it's not always an offensive thing.

- Offensive game situation: That's not sheltering a player. As some says, it's not totally insane to use DD-Pac in offensive game situation. The fact that they get most of these offensive game situations make it easier for them to produce offensively and these players need to deliver.

- Sheltered minutes: That's making a player look good by not putting him in situation he can't handle. Best exemple is Plekanec.....we don't care who the opposing line is, he'll do the job. Eller was used in the same way in the PO, that's why Therrien started with this line most of the time on the road. D-zone, O-zone, N-zone it didn't matter really.

That's the main thing with DD, his lines is sheltered by not being put in situations they can't handle like D-zone starts, shutdown role and PK. That means if you wanna play the guy, there's only one thing to give him: Offensive game situations. DD will face top opposition like Chara and Bergeron some games, but he'll take them in an offensive game situation.

This is what i hate: offensive games situation are very precious and shouldn't always go to the same players every single night, but in this case.....either we gave them all the offensive game situation (even when they're cold and others are hot) or they get to play 10-12 minutes a night cause they can't really take any other role and minutes or they will look bad.

No one knows if he can handle those minutes though. He may do just fine.

Desharnais showed he can work hard and play well defensively in the playoffs. What he will never show is that he's better defensively than Plekanec. Why use him there when Plekanec is one of the best in the league.

The problem has been and will continue to be working depth. Our centre group is fine. Maybe no one elite, but four really good players ready to step in.

You can't give more minutes to the third line because Bourque takes the season off and our #9 has been a mix of Bournival, Prust, Moen, and Weise. Not getting sent out in offensive situations with that set up.

I'm hoping Andrighetto can steal a spot. He's capable of helping the third line be a threat.

 

[Kriss E]

By facing Bergeron, DD faces the best center on the Bruins.
Again, that's where things get fuzzy.

Just a little FYI, Bergeron is Boston's 2nd center behind Krejci.

 

[MathMan]

Didn't we figure out before that he took like 1 extra faceoff per game, at ES, in the offensive zone? Not as big of deal as its made out to be.

1 extra O-zone faceoff per game compared to what? 50%? The team average? Plekanec?

In raw numbers, DD was on the ice for 368 offensive faceoffs and 328 defensive faceoffs. Meanwhile Pleky was on the ice for 295 offensive faceoffs and a whopping 482 defensive zone faceoffs.

(All numbers 5-on-5 only).

So yeah, DD took about an extra faceoff in the O-zone per game compared to Plekanec. What needs to be noted is that that extra faceoff per game is, in fact, a big deal (it's a 25% increase in offensive zone faceoffs compared to Pleky), and it omits the huge number of defensive zone faceoffs Plekanec takes over DD.

 

[Kriss E]

I wouldn't say he sucks as a 1st liner...his production last year was 72nd in the league among forwards. So low end 1st line production, high end 2nd line.

Ideally somebody (Galchenyuk) would grow into a top 20-30 forward in the next few years but he isn't there now.

That is working from the assumption that there is exactly 90 first liners in the NHL which clearly isn't the case. Technically speaking, 3 players form a line, 30 teams, so yes 90 first liners. Technically. Skill wise, you know that isn't the case at all.
And if you want to follow your logic, DD ranked 32nd among centers for production.

It's impossible to predict the progression of a player of Galy's potential and skill. He wasn't there last year, will he be this year, impossible to predict. Let's see how he does in camp.

 

[Smokey Thompson]

If you are Claude Julien, and have a D-zone start.

Do you send Chara or Krug ?

If you are Michel Therrien and need to ease your 20 year old potential franchise player into the centre ice position, do you give him Eller's zone starts (primarily defensive) or DD's zone starts (primarily offensive) ? Do you give him Eller's spot on the PK or DD's spot on the PP? That is the situation here.

This "sheltered ice time myth" is not a bad thing. Heck, argument can be made that Seguin received "sheltered minutes", or easy minutes, in his 84pt season last year. Well, of course... he's an offence dynamo who needs to be deployed in a very offence oriented role. Most teams have one of these players (although the last 5 cup winners had two-way players down the middle, so that says something about the value of one-way centres).

 

[Rapala]

Just a little FYI, Bergeron is Boston's 2nd center behind Krejci.

Until the game is on the line...

 

[Natey]

Just a little FYI, Bergeron is Boston's 2nd center behind Krejci.

That's like saying Plekanec is behind Desharnais.

Pleks and Bergy are clearly the most important.

 

[Rapala]

If you are Michel Therrien and need to ease your 20 year old potential franchise player into the centre ice position, do you give him Eller's zone starts (primarily defensive) or DD's zone starts (primarily offensive) ? Do you give him Eller's spot on the PK or DD's spot on the PP? That is the situation here.

This "sheltered ice time myth" is not a bad thing. Heck, argument can be made that Seguin received "sheltered minutes", or easy minutes, in his 84pt season last year. Well, of course... he's an offence dynamo who needs to be deployed in a very offence oriented role. Most teams have one of these players (although the last 5 cup winners had two-way players down the middle, so that says something about the value of one-way centres).

Thank you Smokey...
The truth of the matter is even the teams with talented individuals who could foreseeably play a one way game insist on the Dzone coming first.

Someone pointed out Krejci is Boston's number 1.
I think if you asked Chiarelli or Neely they would insist Bergeron is their number 1.
Give me a 50-75 pts +- beast over a 80-100 pts floater any day...

 

[Teufelsdreck]

Thank you Smokey...
The truth of the matter is even the teams with talented individuals who could foreseeably play a one way game insist on the Dzone coming first.

Someone pointed out Krejci is Boston's number 1.
I think if you asked Chiarelli or Neely they would insist Bergeron is their number 1.
Give me a 50-75 pts +- beast over a 80-100 pts floater any day...

I agree that Bergeron is more valuable than Krejci but the Bruins are fortunate to have both.

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

Thank you Smokey...
The truth of the matter is even the teams with talented individuals who could foreseeably play a one way game insist on the Dzone coming first.

Someone pointed out Krejci is Boston's number 1.
I think if you asked Chiarelli or Neely they would insist Bergeron is their number 1.
Give me a 50-75 pts +- beast over a 80-100 pts floater any day...

Krejci is a floater?

Oh yeah.. he's european.. right...

 

[DAChampion]

Thank you Smokey...
The truth of the matter is even the teams with talented individuals who could foreseeably play a one way game insist on the Dzone coming first.

Someone pointed out Krejci is Boston's number 1.
I think if you asked Chiarelli or Neely they would insist Bergeron is their number 1.
Give me a 50-75 pts +- beast over a 80-100 pts floater any day...

I would take a 100 point floater.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

Thank you Smokey...
The truth of the matter is even the teams with talented individuals who could foreseeably play a one way game insist on the Dzone coming first.

Someone pointed out Krejci is Boston's number 1.
I think if you asked Chiarelli or Neely they would insist Bergeron is their number 1.
Give me a 50-75 pts +- beast over a 80-100 pts floater any day...

What the.......

Krejci is a floater?

Oh yeah.. he's european.. right...

Ah, probably right.

 

[kingdok]

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time...3_s&f2=5v5&f5=MTL&c=0+1+3+5+8+29+31+33+35+37#

If I am not reading this completely incorrectly, Desharnais' most frequent opposition last year was Dion Phaneuf, Carl Gunnarsson, Zdeno Chara, Phil Kessel and James van Reimsdyk.

The most interesting part is the opposition Galchenyuk got. Shea Weber #2...?